How out of control is the Patek flipping situation?

[pam66]

Originally Posted by zahain

I think what's even crazier is i've seen single and double sealed 2019/2020 pieces for sale by these greys so some AD's out there are not following the rule by cutting them open before selling them

correct. it must come with the understanding of the upper echelon:::)))

[ragsk]

Profit sharing ?

[The Argonaut]

Originally Posted by RHIII

One of the reasons (I believe) we see many of these hyped up references for sale on the secondary market is one of two reasons - people who have it - are going to cash in. Can you really blame them? Or...they bought it BECAUSE of the hype and realize - it wasn’t worth it. It just shows me that many buyers aren’t INTO watches at all.

I'm Steve McQueen on this, especially his second point. Many get pulled into the hype because of social media, get the 5711 or Daytona, but quickly tire of it.

[Russell996]

These threads always ultimately prove pointless with posters broadly falling into the ‘conspiracy theory’ or the ‘kool-aid’ camps.

I know what I believe, have seen and have been told by my AD’s, Patek management and other Patek collectors.

PATEK CARE’s ABOUT FLIPPERS

[GreenLantern]

I do still wonder how in the world the greys continue to get the hottest pieces, fully sealed, literally earlier than anyone else. Who continues supplying them!

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by Russell996

These threads always ultimately prove pointless with posters broadly falling into the ‘conspiracy theory’ or the ‘kool-aid’ camps.

I know what I believe, have seen and have been told by my AD’s, Patek management and other Patek collectors.

PATEK CARE’s ABOUT FLIPPERS

[Bearxj86]

Originally Posted by Russell996

These threads always ultimately prove pointless with posters broadly falling into the ‘conspiracy theory’ or the ‘kool-aid’ camps.

I know what I believe, have seen and have been told by my AD’s, Patek management and other Patek collectors.

PATEK CARE’s ABOUT FLIPPERS

This is 100% true from my understanding too.

[RHIII]

Originally Posted by Russell996

These threads always ultimately prove pointless with posters broadly falling into the ‘conspiracy theory’ or the ‘kool-aid’ camps.



I know what I believe, have seen and have been told by my AD’s, Patek management and other Patek collectors.



PATEK CARE’s ABOUT FLIPPERS

Please define a ‘flipper’.


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[Russell996]

Originally Posted by RHIII

Please define a ‘flipper’.


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Being a flipper is all about the intention prior to purchase not what happens after purchase. I would define a flipper as someone who’s sole intention for buying the piece is to never wear it, try to leave the piece still in it’s packaging and straight away sell the piece possibly to a predetermined buyer.

[Bearxj86]

Originally Posted by RHIII

Please define a ‘flipper’.


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This is a great question and I think it will differ from AD to AD (not sure Patek's position). My AD casts a pretty wide net and it would be for the hot pieces sold within the 2 year warranty period. Basically when someone not on the papers sends in a piece under warranty they get into trouble (at least from what they told me) or they get asked questions by the service center "why didn't they go through you" etc.

[The Argonaut]

Originally Posted by Russell996

Being a flipper is all about the intention prior to purchase not what happens after purchase. I would define a flipper as someone who’s sole intention for buying the piece is to never wear it, try to leave the piece still in it’s packaging and straight away sell the piece possibly to a predetermined buyer.

Bang on. A buyer who moves a watch on after several months, but before the two year window, I'd say is not a flipper. However, it's all very subjective outside of the above working definition.

[RHIII]

Originally Posted by Russell996

Being a flipper is all about the intention prior to purchase not what happens after purchase. I would define a flipper as someone who’s sole intention for buying the piece is to never wear it, try to leave the piece still in it’s packaging and straight away sell the piece possibly to a predetermined buyer.

Completely agree. I define the exact same way.


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[RHIII]

Originally Posted by bearxj86

This is a great question and I think it will differ from AD to AD (not sure Patek's position). My AD casts a pretty wide net and it would be for the hot pieces sold within the 2 year warranty period. Basically when someone not on the papers sends in a piece under warranty they get into trouble (at least from what they told me) or they get asked questions by the service center "why didn't they go through you" etc.

Agreed.

I’m in the exact same page.


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[77T]

Originally Posted by zahain

Why would Patek need to buy back stock to see where it comes from? I would assume most if not all greys wouldn't mind if a 'buyer' came in (in this case a Patek employee who's job is to seek out these pieces) and asked to see the certificate of origin to verify authenticity and just make a note after they left what AD it was sold by.

A good question...

In some cases they may just take a look.
But if they wished to take some action with the AD, having the watch in-hand is undisputed truth.


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[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by RHIII

Please define a ‘flipper’.


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[AK797]

I would put flipping before Patek in your question.

[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by Russell996

These threads always ultimately prove pointless with posters broadly falling into the ‘conspiracy theory’ or the ‘kool-aid’ camps.

I know what I believe, have seen and have been told by my AD’s, Patek management and other Patek collectors.

PATEK CARE’s ABOUT FLIPPERS

+1.

You nailed it.

[321Forever]

Originally Posted by AK797

I would put flipping before Patek in your question.

Exactly...

[321Forever]

Originally Posted by Russell996

These threads always ultimately prove pointless with posters broadly falling into the ‘conspiracy theory’ or the ‘kool-aid’ camps.

I know what I believe, have seen and have been told by my AD’s, Patek management and other Patek collectors.

PATEK CARE’s ABOUT FLIPPERS

Maybe not.

We all know the saying, “actions speaks louder than words.” Based on the supply of Pateks on the market that are out there, it’s hard to see any tangible caring going on. -Just a lot of here-say or PS saying whatever to the media.

What is real are the availability of hard to purchase, recently made Patek models, sold at a premium on the grey market. One with a 2020 date. (Yes, only one.) Whether this is a large or small percentage is unknown. Whether these are innocent buyers who made a mistake is unknown. That PP chooses to keep the supply arbitrarily constrained is known.

Caring is not the same as doing.

[Russell996]

Originally Posted by jakemeister

Maybe not.

We all know the saying, “actions speaks louder than words.” Based on the supply of Pateks on the market that are out there, it’s hard to see any tangible caring going on. -Just a lot of here-say or PS saying whatever to the media.

What is real are the availability of hard to purchase, recently made Patek models, sold at a premium on the grey market. One with a 2020 date. (Yes, only one.) Whether this is a large or small percentage is unknown. Whether these are innocent buyers who made a mistake is unknown. That PP chooses to keep the supply arbitrarily constrained is known.

Caring is not the same as doing.

As I said ‘ These threads always ultimately prove pointless with posters broadly falling into the ‘conspiracy theory’ or the ‘kool-aid’ camps’.

[Calatrava r]

Originally Posted by Russell996

Being a flipper is all about the intention prior to purchase not what happens after purchase. I would define a flipper as someone who’s sole intention for buying the piece is to never wear it, try to leave the piece still in it’s packaging and straight away sell the piece possibly to a predetermined buyer.

Agreed. But how often does that happen with PP hard to get models where the ADs only sell the very limited stock to their few select customers with long purchase histories. People who get these pieces wait forever for them, wear them and probably think wow this watch is nice but its not worth 2X MSRP. The rest is history.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by Russell996

As I said ‘ These threads always ultimately prove pointless with posters broadly falling into the ‘conspiracy theory’ or the ‘kool-aid’ camps’.

[srvrf]

Originally Posted by RHIII

Now, ADs supplying directly. Or someone buying with zero intent to wear and enjoy. That’s a different story.

I think the big question is how many of these new watches go directly to grey dealers including our Trusted Sellers without any of us on lists getting a shot at the watches? Because I think that is the underlying problem. And looking at how many of these in demand watches are available from TSs, I think it happens a lot (versus something like a WIS buying one and then realizing it isn't the right watch for them).

As for Patek buying the watches on the grey market, I doubt they really do it or have much interest in it. So say they produce a 5167 for $10k and sell it for $15k so the AD can sell it for $20k. I'm not sure what they have to gain from buying it back at $35k just to figure out which AD's watch made it to the grey market. Even if they take away the AD status, what do they have to gain?

[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by srvrf

I think the big question is how many of these new watches go directly to grey dealers including our Trusted Sellers without any of us on lists getting a shot at the watches? Because I think that is the underlying problem. And looking at how many of these in demand watches are available from TSs, I think it happens a lot (versus something like a WIS buying one and then realizing it isn't the right watch for them).

As for Patek buying the watches on the grey market, I doubt they really do it or have much interest in it. So say they produce a 5167 for $10k and sell it for $15k so the AD can sell it for $20k. I'm not sure what they have to gain from buying it back at $35k just to figure out which AD's watch made it to the grey market. Even if they take away the AD status, what do they have to gain?

The number of Patek AD has decreased over the past 2 years from 430+ to current 418.

Stats aside, I'm thinking they could take away the dealerships of those ADs not playing rules, and then award new dealerships to locations that are starving for AD. In terms of distribution, there are roughly equal same number of AD in US (327m population) and in Asia (4,463m population) . If Patek cannot increase production substantially, they can tweak their distribution network. This is where I see changes potentially.

[321Forever]

Originally Posted by Russell996

As I said ‘ These threads always ultimately prove pointless with posters broadly falling into the ‘conspiracy theory’ or the ‘kool-aid’ camps’.

Hey, I’m an optimist!

Forums are full of delightful pointlessness. Threads on “look at my new watch!” Threads on “how do I get a new 5711.” Threads on models ending. Threads on the new models. Threads on TS. Threads on service. Polls asking which model is best. It’s fine with me.

Maybe progress could be in defining the terms of the problem to solve. The one that would eliminate or reduce bias. Not that it’s solvable.

For example, isolated to a given model. Probably easiest to do with the US?

-Number of watches distributed in 2018. Patek knows.
-Number sold by ADs in 2018. Patek knows this, too.
-Number of 2018-distributed watches posted for sale as new in 2018-2019, by any non-AD site or seller. This is the hard part as it’s not easy to survey. I suppose Patek could survey a decent sample of buyers in a confidential way to identify those that sold their watches. Could also identify those who are flipping v changed their mind.
-Breakdown of the above by AD, to identify whether certain ADs are outliers.

[martinr]

Originally Posted by zahain

I think what's even crazier is i've seen single and double sealed 2019/2020 pieces for sale by these greys so some AD's out there are not following the rule by cutting them open before selling them

Also watches with no AD name or no date or both advertised as “open papers”. Do these come from an AD or possibly directly from a distributor. One of these days someone that’s worked for a grey dealer and has moved on to another field is going to talk, whether anyone believes him or not is another story.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by martinr

Also watches with no AD name or no date or both advertised as “open papers”. Do these come from an AD or possibly directly from a distributor. One of these days someone that’s worked for a grey dealer and has moved on to another field is going to talk, whether anyone believes him or not is another story.

Someone here mentioned in the past that they erase the name with an eraser...

[locutus49]

Zahain,

While we are on the subject of flipping, let me know if you want to sell me that celestial in your avatar at a loss for tax reasons. I'll keep it a secret so no one will think you are a flipper and by selling at a loss you can lower your tax bracket.

Originally Posted by zahain

Why would Patek need to buy back stock to see where it comes from? I would assume most if not all greys wouldn't mind if a 'buyer' came in (in this case a Patek employee who's job is to seek out these pieces) and asked to see the certificate of origin to verify authenticity and just make a note after they left what AD it was sold by.

[locutus49]

Agree. A lot of venting. A lot of complaining. A lot of wishful thinking.

I guess what I don't understand is that if someone is well-off enough to be able to spend 25K and up on a Patek, why not spend a few bucks more and buy on the secondary market?

Originally Posted by Russell996

As I said ‘ These threads always ultimately prove pointless with posters broadly falling into the ‘conspiracy theory’ or the ‘kool-aid’ camps’.

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by locutus49

I guess what I don't understand is that if someone is well-off enough to be able to spend 25K and up on a Patek, why not spend a few bucks more and buy on the secondary market?

Because that $25k watch is going for $15k-$20k higher on the secondary market, and I can buy two watches for the price of one instead?

Obviously I know that I don't need to tell you or other this, so I mean no disrespect, but we won't stay well-off by burning our money in an artificially inflated market.