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Old 11 November 2019, 01:01 PM   #1
ILuvSubs
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Thoughts on Phillips Geneva Watch Auction X results?

Seems like the vintage Rolex market is still relatively strong if these auction results are anything to go by.

https://www.phillips.com/auctions/auction/CH080219
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Old 11 November 2019, 01:55 PM   #2
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For those wondering, the Swiss Franc is currently 1 to 1 to the US dollar.

This is a very interesting watch, the next Comex??

"It is widely known that Rolex does not usually make limited edition watches or even less rarely accepts to make special pieces upon order, therefore it is quite an event when one of these rare pieces comes to market."

https://www.phillips.com/detail/rolex/CH080219/144

And a stainless steel Day/Date prototype

https://www.phillips.com/detail/rolex/CH080219/247
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Old 11 November 2019, 10:54 PM   #3
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The prices seem ridiculous on the modern pieces. They sold a used AP Jumbo from 2018 for $47,500. Thatís about $8k more than youíd pay from DavidSW or the like.
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Old 11 November 2019, 11:10 PM   #4
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Some of these prices are simply ridiculous
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Old 12 November 2019, 12:11 AM   #5
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Just watching Christies and saw this 5513 go for 18,750 (hammer plus premium, not including VAT or tax to import) and this 1680 for 35,000 - both have all docs
https://www.christies.com/lotfinder/...=6231324&lid=1
https://www.christies.com/lotfinder/...=6231325&lid=1
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Old 12 November 2019, 12:15 AM   #6
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A basic 1603 Datejust can be easily found for USD 3,000, but sold for more than 10 grand in this auction.

A bog-standard Red Sub at an optimistic 25 grand in today's market sold for almost USD 34,000.

It kind of feels like proxy bidders who don't know what they're doing are representing wealthy clients who also don't know what they're doing.

Who says the bubble's bursting?
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Old 12 November 2019, 12:18 AM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zapokee View Post
A basic 1603 Datejust can be easily found for USD 3,000, but sold for more than 10 grand in this auction.

A bog-standard Red Sub at an optimistic 25 grand in today's market sold for almost USD 34,000.

It kind of feels like bidders who don't know what they're doing are representing wealthy clients who don't know what they're doing, either.
You will not find a NOS 1601 from 1964 for 3k in the open market. Not sure 34k for a fullset meters first red sub is bat shit crazy either considering it is fancy auctions.
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Old 12 November 2019, 12:23 AM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zapokee View Post
A basic 1603 Datejust can be easily found for USD 3,000, but sold for more than 10 grand in this auction.

A bog-standard Red Sub at an optimistic 25 grand in today's market sold for almost USD 34,000.

It kind of feels like proxy bidders who don't know what they're doing are representing wealthy clients who also don't know what they're doing.

Who says the bubble's bursting?
Yeah, that 1603 is near perfect and looks 100% complete down to the paper hang tag. Its no different than that guy that just spent 14 grand on here for a claimed NOS 1991 16700.
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Old 12 November 2019, 12:27 AM   #9
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And how TF is a 25-grand Milgauss 1019 selling for 130 grand?

https://www.phillips.com/detail/rolex/CH080219/157

Either they're reporting the price wrongly, or some oil baron has instructed his bidder to buy at any price...
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Old 12 November 2019, 12:30 AM   #10
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And how TF is a 25-grand Milgauss 1019 selling for 130 grand?

https://www.phillips.com/detail/rolex/CH080219/157

Either they're reporting the price wrongly, or some oil baron has instructed his bidder to buy at any price...
It is glossy. Something that is extremely rare, beautiful and expensive.
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Old 12 November 2019, 12:37 AM   #11
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And how TF is a 25-grand Milgauss 1019 selling for 130 grand?

https://www.phillips.com/detail/rolex/CH080219/157

Either they're reporting the price wrongly, or some oil baron has instructed his bidder to buy at any price...
Wrong again, it isnt just a run of the mill 1019, most are matte dials.
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Old 12 November 2019, 12:38 AM   #12
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It is glossy. Something that rare, beautiful and expensive.
It's very nice, but not 5x market price nice... 130 grand? Either way, I like this result as a 1019 owner.
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Old 12 November 2019, 12:40 AM   #13
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It's very nice, but not 5x market price nice...
It is when probably only 1 out of 500,000 Milgauss are glossy. Market price currently for a glossy dial is around 100K. The last one sold in 2017 for 150K. It is thought that only a handful were ever built.
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Old 12 November 2019, 12:55 AM   #14
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I have dealt with Phillips personally. I wouldn't trust Phillips auction results as indicative of ANYTHING. The prices that are realized at their events are not founded in reality, it seems to be an exclusive little club of some kind that is borderline a scam. Witness the insane Heuer 70s prices that happened a few years ago. NO ONE else ever got close to those prices in any venue, the whole thing was a fraud of some kind. When these irregularities come to light in a few years, remember you read it here first. I think the stainless D-D looks great, and it's certainly a rarity.
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Old 12 November 2019, 01:00 AM   #15
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I have dealt with Phillips personally. I wouldn't trust Phillips auction results as indicative of ANYTHING. The prices that are realized at their events are not founded in reality, it seems to be an exclusive little club of some kind that is borderline a scam. Witness the insane Heuer 70s prices that happened a few years ago. NO ONE else ever got close to those prices in any venue, the whole thing was a fraud of some kind. When these irregularities come to light in a few years, remember you read it here first. I think the stainless D-D looks great, and it's certainly a rarity.
And still all the Heuer community was dissapointed after the theme auction that only attracted the same buyers as on Chronocentric.

In my honest opinion I think most prices are ok. As always you pay an auction premium for Geneva but looking at Phillips inventory most of the pieces are great. Hence not bargains.

What is odd is the prices for the modern standard pieces. Here I think the buyers are people who don’t trust the secondary market and already have a relationship with Phillips for art, jewelry etc. For the good watches I don’t think the prices are crazy. Not cheap but not cray cray. The ones listed so far make sense to me.
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Old 12 November 2019, 01:07 AM   #16
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For the good watches I donít think the prices are crazy. Not cheap but not cray cray. The ones listed so far make sense to me.
I'm happy to be corrected, as the market has apparently been.
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Old 12 November 2019, 01:09 AM   #17
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As I just posted on another forum: Phillips seems to sell everything for 2x the market value. I have no clue why.
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Old 12 November 2019, 01:11 AM   #18
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As I just posted on another forum: Phillips seems to sell everything for 2x the market value. I have no clue why.
Might be the oil guys and the eastern market throwing money around...
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Old 12 November 2019, 01:26 AM   #19
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This IS the market, but it's the auction market, which is a different animal to private sales and forum sales listings.

I work a lot with auction houses in the art world, and it's similar. Sometimes prices are lower than what you can buy elsewhere, and sometimes they're higher.

Some guys/gals with money like buying in the high-end auction world a lot more than hunting around for the best deals. All you need at an auction are two motivated and wealthy buyers who want the same watch for whatever reason. Bidding can be very competitive.
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Old 12 November 2019, 02:25 AM   #20
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I think there’s a few things to consider when discussing this topic. First thing is that the offered watches in Geneva are in general exceptional. They aren’t average. Finding exceptional pieces today is hard. Even for a seasoned collector or dealers. And exceptional watches aren’t cheap if they have already entered the market. People know how to value things and today I would say people even over value their assets in general. That means that if you can’t find fresh to the market pieces you are likely not buying cheap.

If someone thinks prices in auctions are double the market price I would advice them to sell there. Reality is that very few watches are worth putting up for auction. Even if you can negotiate a decent fee. Average or bad quality will either sell bad or not sell at all. Great quality will likely do well but those kind of watches are never cheap. The only winner is the auction house.

There’s also the impression that the only people buying from auction are idiot rich people. I would say that in general the buyers are dealers and collectors. Normally very well-informed people.
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Old 12 November 2019, 03:17 AM   #21
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roh123-Per makes excellent points. The provenance that a Christies auctioned watch does carry a premium. I'm guilty of paying it and have zero regrets.
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Old 12 November 2019, 04:01 AM   #22
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roh123-Per makes excellent points. The provenance that a Christies auctioned watch does carry a premium. I'm guilty of paying it and have zero regrets.
Yes, there's a certain cachet when buying from a high-end auction house, but I think it's mostly hype and you still need to be very careful. I've seen watch auctions over the years from the big three _ Christies, Sothebys, Phillips _ that have glaring mistakes and/or omissions in the descriptions.

And I'm sure some of us remember this debacle:

https://watchesbysjx.com/2018/01/wha...tona-solo.html
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Old 12 November 2019, 05:36 AM   #23
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Thoughts on Phillips Geneva Watch Auction X results?

As in other collector circles like art, autos, numismatics, etc. there are some corners where the rarest of the rare are put up for public sale. There are premiums paid, wider bidding ranges and ultra-wealth chasing the otherwise unobtainable.

I think these current results show that. But I also noticed some lots that underperformed within their estimated range.


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Old 12 November 2019, 05:40 AM   #24
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As in other collector circles like art, autos, numismatics, etc. there are some corners where the rarest of the rare are put up for public sale. There are premiums paid, wider bidding ranges and ultra-wealth chasing the otherwise unobtainable.

I think these current results show that. But I also noticed some lots that underperformed within their estimated range.
Estimates on some pieces are very high. Most likely due to the sellers demanding too much. My feeling is that we saw more passed lots than in a long time.
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Old 12 November 2019, 06:06 AM   #25
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And still all the Heuer community was dissapointed after the theme auction that only attracted the same buyers as on Chronocentric.
What do you mean by this or what was expected?
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Old 12 November 2019, 06:10 AM   #26
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What do you mean by this or what was expected?
The Heuer community expected prices to move up a lot. They didnít move at all.
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Old 12 November 2019, 06:28 AM   #27
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It seemed like old Heuer's were making huge price moves, granted they were under valued when a viceroy was 800-1500, about 3/4 years ago and then there momentum has stalled. They did sell a Heuer GMT chrono for a fat number, but it was damn near NOS.
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Old 12 November 2019, 08:35 AM   #28
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The Heuer community expected prices to move up a lot. They didnít move at all.
No idea why they would want that. Seems like those guys are the most passionate ones out there so don't draw too much attention? You could easily price yourself out of the market if you want those watches to go at 15-30-45k.
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Old 13 November 2019, 11:22 PM   #29
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Old 14 November 2019, 12:06 AM   #30
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roh123-Per makes excellent points. The provenance that a Christies auctioned watch does carry a premium. I'm guilty of paying it and have zero regrets.
I just said this in another thread, but it seems that the term ďprovenanceĒ is being loosely used these days. Provenance in my book speaks to the history and lineage being traced....an auction house brokering the sale of a watch provides precisely zero provenance.
While it might bring a premium, or make people feel cozy, it isnít provenance.
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