Long timers take on current trends

[Calatrava r]

No. This is a strategy to up brand the product in what has been a very soft watch market by reducing supply across the board. I think the transition to the new movements across the line has also contributed to the continued shortages. At least Rolex has not had to buy back their stuff for destruction like other big companies have had to do to reduce over supply. Rolex owners should be very happy with value retention while Rolex want-to-be owners clearly are not.

[Quailhunter]

I have not seen this in watches before, but have in other products where supply was constrained or where hysteria prevailed.

My guess is that the means to buy Rolex watches exceeds the supply Rolex needs to sell to meet their business model targets. There are a lot of newly rich people, particularly in Asia, who now have the means to buy Rolex watches.

If I owned Rolex, I would not expend the capital to increase production if (1) I was happy with my revenue and (2) if I was worried that the demand would die off.

I don’t think Rolex is acting irrationally.

[tyler1980]

all i know is if it was like this when i started, i wouldn't have started. Its too negative now which takes the enjoyment out, and people acting desperate like its water in the desert.

I think over christmas was the worst i have ever seen it with AD's being jam packed right before christmas and a bus load of tourists being dropped off in front of another AD i was in on Boxing day. People just looking to buy whatever.

I go to ADs to relax... seriously. It's enjoyable. Last six months, it's not. Too many people are treating this like a job... which i suppose it is to some

[Tzachi]

Originally Posted by shafran

I also think that this anomaly is due to the emergence of a secondary market. There are so many dealers now that buy the supply and resell. That is a phenomena that did not exist to this extent 15 yrs ago. Possibly blame the internet and the ease to become a seller today.

all "rare" models are available monthly and showing up FS by flippers, not
end users

[037]

Originally Posted by oldman2005

This is a new Rolex ploy for SS sport

This isn't limited to SS. Certain PM models have wait lists as well despite some speculating that Rolex wants more PM sales due to their cost margins. Currently the only pattern is that if it's popular then it's hard to get.

[LesserBlackDog]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

No. This is a strategy to up brand the product in what has been a very soft watch market by reducing supply across the board. I think the transition to the new movements across the line has also contributed to the continued shortages. At least Rolex has not had to buy back their stuff for destruction like other big companies have had to do to reduce over supply. Rolex owners should be very happy with value retention while Rolex want-to-be owners clearly are not.

The idea that Rolex has somehow engineered this entire situation from on high is an absurdity. There is no evidence Rolex has reduced production. The “scarcity” is perceived, not real, and exists only among authorized dealers, who are selling them out the back (along with bundles of less desirable models) to the grey market dealers. You can get your hands on any hot SS Rolex you want with next-day shipping - as long as you are willing to pay a premium. These watches are not hard to find. They are not rare or special.

The current situation, in which frustrated consumers quit shopping at ADs and instead spend premiums at grey market dealers, serves no purpose for Rolex. Rolex’s business model is control, control, control. They want buyers to buy Rolex watches - at exactly MSRP, no more no less, from an authorized dealer with a dedicated Rolex counter that looks just so, complete with a stamped warranty card that ensures if the buyer ever wants the watch to be serviced he or she will bring it back to the AD to be packaged up and shipped off to RSC for them to service and maintain to their own specifications and preferences. Rolex has built its brand around the notion of prestige, not purely around wealth. It does Rolex no good and does not help it move “upmarket” for the prices of their watches to be (temporarily, artificially) inflated if in the long term it tarnishes the image and reputations of the ADs who are the brand’s face to the public.

The simple reality is there are numerous contributing factors to the current market. The Asian market is growing at an absurd pace, creating ever higher demand. Rolex is privately owned and therefore not feeling short-term shareholder pressure to ramp up production and capitalize on the current demand (which Rolex knows would eventually result in over-saturation, decreased value for their product, and overextension of production investments). Even if Rolex were inclined to respond to the demand by ramping up production, Rolex owns virtually all its own production facilities and is almost 100% vertically integrated. It can’t just subcontract a few extra factories here and there to ramp up production to meet demand as many other watchmakers do. Rolex would have to make serious long-term capital investments to dramatically increase its production capacity. But Rolex is a slow-moving behemoth. It will increase production, but only in a paced and manageable way to avoid the risk of saturating the market with its products and devaluing its own brand.

Then you throw in the social media-fueled frenzy about certain highly desirable watch models (DaytonaC) and watch that desirability trickle down to any SS model in sight. Get a few grey dealers who realize they can name their own price on virtually any SS model as long as they buy them out of all the ADs, and ADs/distributors sitting on costly, slow-moving PM inventory realizing they can pass it off to grey dealers as long as they sweeten the pot with a bunch of desirable SS models... voila. Perfect storm.

Rolex’s obsessive need to control its products and image has undoubtedly contributed to this situation in a big way. But the notion that they knowingly engineered the current situation to move their product upmarket is, as I wrote above, simply absurd.

[101031-28]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

all i know is if it was like this when i started, i wouldn't have started. Its too negative now which takes the enjoyment out, and people acting desperate like its water in the desert.

Agree, 100%

[101031-28]

Originally Posted by Lol-x

And on a world-wide scale and for such an extended period.

Years ago some countries/areas would find it hard to get a particular model, and other countries/ares would report the same model in the window display. So there was not an out and out world-wide shortage.

Additionally this drought has gone on for a very long time, longer than I can recall.

+1

30 years ago when I started collecting Rolex (in Italy), SS Daytonas were already impossible to find but the other SS sports models, with a bit of driving/calling ADs country wide, were readily available. My AD would give me an approx. date of the month when the watch shipment was to be delivered and if I called inquiring about a certain model, and was first, it was mine to pick up. Long gone are those days

[mmmmp]

Howdee: I've been wearing Rolex almost for around 30+ years and only recall Daytonas being difficult to find. I've been told for a while they were plentiful and even discounted.

Fortunately, I'm a Datejust man so I'm not inconvenienced by the current sad state of affairs.

I *do* empathise with everyone who continues to suffer this nonsense. It must be maddening (Infuriating even!) to have funds, desire, permission from the 'better half', etc. and have no way to score the watch you want except by going to a grey dealer. Remember, not everyone is willing to go that route for various reasons. (I'd be jittery dealing with a grey no matter how trustworthy.)

I usually skip the 'SS Shortage...' threads so in a perverse way I'm affected too....I run short of new threads!! I hope this resolves itself sooner than later or I'll have to 'moonlight' on other forums in order to satisfy my WIS cravings. lol! A shortage of Rolex watches, what a silly world.

Best,
Mark



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[ny_yeti]

Originally Posted by In-Cog-Neeto

For you long timers, have you seen a similar situation previously as this current supply / demand ‘issue’ most seem to be facing?

What an awesome question, great thread!

[nGage7962]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

No. This is a strategy to up brand the product in what has been a very soft watch market by reducing supply across the board. I think the transition to the new movements across the line has also contributed to the continued shortages. At least Rolex has not had to buy back their stuff for destruction like other big companies have had to do to reduce over supply. Rolex owners should be very happy with value retention while Rolex want-to-be owners clearly are not.

Agree! Feels artificial to me. A deliberate choice about the future of the brand.

[Halitosis]

Originally Posted by G M Francis

Nope! Been collecting since the mid 80s when healthy discounts where available on Daytonas/ SDs/ Milgauss but NOT on bi metal DJs... but let’s not go there! I can only assume it’s the demand in the Far East that has changed the market.

Exactly this

[Ignace Worang]

Recently I received Daytona that I’ve waited 6 mths for.....never had anything like this prior but I think it is not artificial.....with socmed, knline dealer, cheaper flights, courier services world is indeed smaller. I remember I was with my late dad in 1990 buying Rolex at Bucherer Lucern....saw few Daytonas on display....no socmed, no cheap shipping, flight cost was relatively expensive and difficult (visa etc) hence goods moved slower. Last 5 years there are more tourist going out from China than population of many countries. It caused price to skyrocket on many things dur to demand pressure....unfortunately for most Asians...Rolex is the first brand in mind when it comes to status.