What does a bubble do?

[offrdmania]

As long as there is low inventory and high demand there will be a "bubble". Until the demand drops or the market is flooded with inventory, I dont see this said bubble popping anytime soon.

[lamnyc]

Does anybody look inside a watch. No. It’s about how it is on your wrist.

[Ichiran]

One of the major considerations when I chose my DJ41 is the new 3235 movement. I quite like the idea of leaving the watch on the table over a whole weekend, and it still ticks when I pick it up again on Monday

[GradyPhilpott]

Originally Posted by Jason71

Home prices plummeted in 2007.......IIRC, Rolex watches became easier to obtain and prices of vintage pieces softened a bit......but NOTHING even close to the real estate market.

I'm pretty sure that there was a flood of Rolex watches on the secondary market after the big real estate crash.

I'm pretty sure that started in 2008, but I could be wrong.

I buy what I like and can afford without any concern whatsoever for the future.

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by 77T

Well Mitch, it’s all down to the value you place on enjoyment. If you drink a glass of wine in the finest restaurant it will cost 2-3x per glass vs buying a bottle somewhere else and pouring your own.

If you want to check the time on a green dialed, green bezeled monster from Marvel Comics you will pay more than checking your cellphone.

I guess I’m saying don’t go into the purchase thinking the price will drop. Rolex charges $9050 for a new one if you can find it. So if you pay $10,500 for a used one, it’s just an extra cup of Starbucks coffee a day to have what you want now.

Exactly

I’ve justified a lot of things using this logic ... watches included

[Michigan_State]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

i think you are overestimating that people actually care what movement their watch has. If it says rolex on the dial its good enough for 99% of buyers.

+1

[jfmiii]

Originally Posted by Jason71

Home prices plummeted in 2007.......IIRC, Rolex watches became easier to obtain and prices of vintage pieces softened a bit......but NOTHING even close to the real estate market.

Rolex prices hadnt inflated nearly as much as they have in the past 5 years back then. The faster they rise, the harder they fall. I bought a 16750 matte in spring 2007 for $1750. I bought another one in late 2015 for $6750. If I recall correctly, gilt 5513s were around $5k back then. A 6263 was what, $15-20k? Prices in the last 3-5 years have gone insane. These watches have become securitized in the sense that people now believe they are appreciating assets, or at the very least US Treasury equivalents; youll always get your principal back plus something.

[hambone1983]

we are discussing a "bubble" as if it is established fact. An actual economic bubble is created by a credit expansion which leads to a boom-bust cycle. None of that is applicable here, so the term is really not the right one.

That being said, it is perfectly legit to question how long a product can sustain price increases in excess of the rate of increase in incomes.

[mobster600]

Yes, very possible....anything can be in the making.

If Rolex pumps out some new movements and new models....who knows.

The current power reserve sucks on the sports models....

[mikkolopez]

Bubble or not the prices will stay up or will go up. So long as it’s SRP new at AD and it’s there I’d buy it.

Makes me wish I had bought a Sub or the DJs 10 years ago.


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[HogwldFLTR]

Let me level with you; a bubble floats to the highest point from my experience.

[rominvicta]

Originally Posted by Mitch105

It BURSTS eventually.

So I have the bug to acquire a hulk. Now, given the crazy prices for all things Submariner (and GMT) and given the new 70 hour movement thats on its way or already available in the new GMTs I have been fighting myself not to pull the trigger.
What do you think because I think once the new movement starts being shipped across the whole sub/GMT lines it might burst the bubble on the existing watch inventory and even perhaps normalize demand? Crazy?

Just to the opposite. You would regret not buying Hulk today. Long time lurker for 16710. Didn’t see prices decreasing after release of 126710, to my deepest regret. Still awaiting but i am hundred % sure i would be paying more at the end.

[FinWatch]

Who knows what is going to happen...
For example Kermit:
The price has tripled over the last 8 years...


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[Yobber76]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

One of the major considerations when I chose my DJ41 is the new 3235 movement. I quite like the idea of leaving the watch on the table over a whole weekend, and it still ticks when I pick it up again on Monday

I agree in part that if your going to buy a watch, any upgrade in manufacture should play a part.
I chose a DJ 41 ultimately, because I liked it's size on my wrist vs the 36 and DJ II.

[jjlawrence]

Rolex's timing is unpredictable. I agree w others that if you want one now, acquire one now. Who knows if the Hulk will be the last to get a movement update or if it will even still be in production in the future.

[Mystro]

It’s funny that the same “bubble” logic has been used for years. Now these same people look back at those over priced watches and dream about paying those prices today (that is if they could find one).