It's happening....

[rpstrimple]

Originally Posted by ajw45

All the time. I bought my Sea Dweller new from an AD for 10% off and no tax. It's not the 35% you used to get off like an IWC but absolutely, for most of Rolex's existence their watches could be had at MSRP or at a discount for PM and less popular models.

Rolex didn't grow to where it is today by not having watches for sale in dealer cases. People can argue all they want that this things are different and we'll never go back to the way things were but I wouldn't ignore 95% of Rolex's history to assume these last few years are the new normal.

This is exactly it. You are 100% correct, there’s no way Rolex has the opportunity to even be in this situation if historically they didn’t have watches on display/available to sell to folks off the street. I feel as if a lot of people seem to have blinders on and are quick to assume this is the new normal. Everything ebbs and flows. The last few years have been a waterfall.

Aside from a few specific pieces, Rolex watches are not rare. There’s absolutely no reason why things cannot revert back. Everything has been fueled by hype and speculation.

I do believe that the economic situation is leading to lower prices. I do believe that this is just the beginning. I do not necessarily believe we need a recession for prices to continue to fall. As long as there isn’t as much meat on the bone for flippers, wait lists will shrink, speculators will drop out and find the next thing. The race to the bottom is on.

[AbeFroman]

Originally Posted by eijiboy

Its gone. I turned on the notif and trued to go back but the post is gone


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

It’s back now. Price is still the same too.

[Mendota]

Originally Posted by Meltingicecube

I'm putting my money where my mouth is and have shorted WOSG. You are a bull and think prices will recover? Please go long WOSG or go buy some Rolexes from a grey!

How are you doing that? This particular stock has zero short interest and is also not optionable, so there aren't any options chains. Are you trading CFDs on this with a currency pair? Just curious.

Sent from my SM-G986U using Tapatalk

[eijiboy]

Originally Posted by AbeFroman

It’s back now. Price is still the same too.

Just saw it. No takers. Feel bad for the person who bought the same watch for 120k at the auction


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Moondoggy]

The greys are holding hoping it is a dip (historically there is some truth to it), if it hasn't bounced back by say August/September real panic will start to kick in, why anyone would buy now from a grey is beyond me unless your ash tray is over flowing.

[boring_sandwich]

Maybe the title should be changed from It's happening....to its happened!

[Michigan_State]

Originally Posted by rpstrimple

Aside from a few specific pieces, Rolex watches are not rare. There’s absolutely no reason why things cannot revert back. Everything has been fueled by hype and speculation.

I haven’t made up my mind, yet and don’t think that the bottom will necessarily fall out. Just to be clear, I’m not invested in any watch. I just think that any of us would still happily reach for the SubCs and GMT, etc. if readily available. Not necessarily to flip, maybe just because we want to experience ownership too. So the craze might be over, but I’m not seeing the market go back to the good old days as demand > supply, still.

On a side note, does anyone know if Rolex is still or in general planning to expand capacity? That might be an additional factor.

[eijiboy]

Originally Posted by NYG1121

I sure as hell wouldnt buy a PM rolex at retail right now if goal is to flip. It is going under MSRP imminently

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=857963

this is why the guy posted on this forum about his ad offered a rg gmt but declined after a few hours. Probably he realized he will be lucky to get his money back. One sold at auction for 44k. basically msrp plus tax. If that was 4 months ago it will be a different post. probably an incoming

[smg8]

Originally Posted by eijiboy

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=857963

this is why the guy posted on this forum about his ad offered a rg gmt but declined after a few hours. Probably he realized he will be lucky to get his money back. One sold at auction for 44k. Basically msrp plus tax. If that was 4 months ago it will be a different post. Probably an incoming

100%

[rolexpure]

I reckon every single damn piece is heading back to MSRP + tax except the SS Daytona. That was always a premium even way way back when I picked up my Hulk for $7500 out the door.

Actually I bought and sold the Hulk for $7500 3 times!!!! LOL. Back then you couldnt give those damn ugly things away.

Everytime I now hear "watches" and "investments" in the same sentence you just have to laugh out loud.

Its gonna be a very bad lesson for some. Especially buying BLROs at $30k+ or imagine John Mayer Daytona at $150k+.....ooofffftttt that is a BIG BIG loss

[Mnk47]

Originally Posted by Xhulio

I’m checking the bi metal root beer daily now. Although I love the watch no way was I paying 25k for it, now roughly trading at £18-19k

Waiting for it to drop between 15-16k before I pull the plug and buy on grey.
Sod waiting for the AD.

Curious to know, Have Rolex’s popular sports model every gone below retail?
What did they trade at before covid ?

The Misses datejust model she’s after , last time I checked is at £1k over retail at grey.
But now seeing the prices dropping like crazy. I don’t think I’d want to give the AD my money ,
They weren’t there when I needed them ��*♂️

I am in the same boat . Most places have the root beer for 21/23 but I was offered one at 18.5k. Still holding out

[GW44]

Originally Posted by Meltingicecube

It's fascinating to see how the watch market has decoupled from other asset classes

S&P 500 is flat M/M yet watches are down minimum of 10% this month alone!
China reopened on June 1st, yet prices went down even further after they reopened!
Tax season is over, whatever

Watches and in general the art market are super cyclical, I'm surprised that some watches are still trading above MSRP! Another 100-150 bps hike should do the job!

Not for the UK. July is the next payment on account month for business's to HMRC.

[PO 2500D]

Originally Posted by no way jay

Watch collecting will cut their fees sometimes to get a piece sold

But the fee even if cut by 50% isn't that material to the price, the watch was not sold for £17420 inc fees but then offered buy it now for £30 more...doesn't make sense.

Looks like the bidder pulled out...CW took their fee and have offered to sell the watch

[Moondoggy]

Originally Posted by Mnk47

I am in the same boat . Most places have the root beer for 21/23 but I was offered one at 18.5k. Still holding out

The same been watching for months, sat at retail for months when the hype started then went to 30k before I knew it (asking bullsh*t grey games).

Will be close to MRSP soon.

[G3Z]

What’s the general consensus on five digits then? Will they hold or drop because a newer watch is/will be the same price?

Are 5 digits just for the purists? Resulting in a drop?

[mailman]

Originally Posted by G3Z

What’s the general consensus on five digits then? Will they hold or drop because a newer watch is/will be the same price?

Are 5 digits just for the purists? Resulting in a drop?

As far as 5 digits go, they aren’t making any more of them. Clean, mint complete sets in unpolished condition are getting harder to come by.

[smg8]

Originally Posted by doboy007

Why are ppl so stupid? Or some are just stupid rich.

Like many market bubbles, it's driven by great fool theory. The idea you can buy an appreciating asset simply because someone else will pay more for it. The problem with this is the music always stops eventually.

[ronricks]

Originally Posted by G3Z

What’s the general consensus on five digits then? Will they hold or drop because a newer watch is/will be the same price?

Are 5 digits just for the purists? Resulting in a drop?

They are going down in price but not near as much as the modern stuff is.

[smg8]

Originally Posted by Meltingicecube

It's fascinating to see how the watch market has decoupled from other asset classes

S&P 500 is flat M/M yet watches are down minimum of 10% this month alone!
China reopened on June 1st, yet prices went down even further after they reopened!
Tax season is over, whatever

Watches and in general the art market are super cyclical, I'm surprised that some watches are still trading above MSRP! Another 100-150 bps hike should do the job!

The problem is extrapolating what watches are doing today versus what the stock market is doing today. They aren't that closely related.

If you look at stocks from around end of Q1 21 you will see the highest valued, growthiest, highest PE ratio stocks that got bid up to the most insane valuations due to the speculative bubble in 2020 starting to deflate. Profitless tech etc started selling off hard in 2021. By 2022 this had spread to the rest of the market, and even "safe" names (consumer defensive for example) and those that weren't at insane valuations have been caught up in the sell off.

So looking at watches, around a month ago the absurdly overvalued stuff started selling off hard, and it's now starting to impact the stupidly overvalued stuff (that's a rung below) too.

In stock market terms we are probably mid 2021 if drawing a parallel at all. That would mean we are just getting started, should a similar pattern emerge.

[smg8]

Originally Posted by Xhulio

I’m checking the bi metal root beer daily now. Although I love the watch no way was I paying 25k for it, now roughly trading at £18-19k

Waiting for it to drop between 15-16k before I pull the plug and buy on grey.
Sod waiting for the AD.

Curious to know, Have Rolex’s popular sports model every gone below retail?
What did they trade at before covid ?

The Misses datejust model she’s after , last time I checked is at £1k over retail at grey.
But now seeing the prices dropping like crazy. I don’t think I’d want to give the AD my money ,
They weren’t there when I needed them ��*♂️

There is one on C24 at £17.5k, if I was you I'd offer £15k and imagine they will be keen to offload.

[Emery]

Originally Posted by ronricks

They are going down in price but not near as much as the modern stuff is.

At the same time, they didn’t run up as much as the 6-digits, so I guess it’s only logical for it to have a smaller drop in comparison.

[Mnk47]

Originally Posted by smg8

There is one on C24 at £17.5k, if I was you I'd offer £15k and imagine they will be keen to offload.

That has just sold. I just rang up. Maybe there is a decent bid around that level…for now

[efk95]

ADs around the world are really offering models in-demand to new customers (part of the new Rolex policy), this to me plays a part in the falling prices of grey market.

[smg8]

Originally Posted by Mnk47

That has just sold. I just rang up. Maybe there is a decent bid around that level…for now

Ah damn. Priced to sell and it sold!

The fact it was up at that price shows how mental the ones still advertising at £25k are

[Langnam]

Originally Posted by Meltingicecube

It's fascinating to see how the watch market has decoupled from other asset classes

S&P 500 is flat M/M yet watches are down minimum of 10% this month alone!
China reopened on June 1st, yet prices went down even further after they reopened!
Tax season is over, whatever

Watches and in general the art market are super cyclical, I'm surprised that some watches are still trading above MSRP! Another 100-150 bps hike should do the job!

Haha. Watches as an asset class.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[rolexpure]

"Watches are an asset"

That is going to become the joke of the decade when its all said and done. Many of us on here could see that way back in 2017 or so when things started to grow.

This was always going to end badly especially when every dick and harry jumped on the hype train.

[smg8]

Originally Posted by rolexpure

"Watches are an asset"

That is going to become the joke of the decade when its all said and done. Many of us on here could see that way back in 2017 or so when things started to grow.

This was always going to end badly especially when every dick and harry jumped on the hype train.

Along with "bitcoin is an inflation hedge"

[Meltingicecube]

It's going to get uglier than anyone can ever imagine! When hypes die, they usually end in disaster! I've actually noticed this with myself! As prices have come down, my interest has gone down with it too! And I don't buy watches as investments! Interesting how human psychology works! haha

In my opinion, the second wave of selling is about to start as yields have started to surge again worldwide!

[AbeFroman]

What happened to our white Daytona hype man Jacksonrain?

Need to get his input on the current market after his last thread about them surpassing $50k.

[ronricks]

Originally Posted by AbeFroman

What happened to our white Daytona hype man Jacksonrain?

Need to get his input on the current market after his last thread about them surpassing $50k.

Abe, I know others have said this but your username and avatar is hilarious.