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Old 21 March 2020, 11:20 AM   #121
yonexsp
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Originally Posted by JP(Canada) View Post
Interesting times ahead. I've been 'waiting for the call' for two years, and I'm not sure I'll pull the trigger if it does come in. Far more important things to plan for with this uncertainty. I also suspect we will see a return to much lower secondary market watch prices as a result of the economic fallout.
Your response is why the market will crash, and prices will drop below MSRP. Yes, you will be able to buy whatever you want in 6 months.

This is so bad, no one will be buying luxury watches, when everyone they knows i closing their jobs
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Old 21 March 2020, 11:28 AM   #122
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All this factory shut business is a side show to me. There is already considerable supply in the market. I’m not necessarily talking about greys or AD stock (although that counts), I’m talking about the millions of pieces that have sold over the last bull run.

Once people lose jobs (which they will), that $15 - $20k luxury piece on their wrists will get cashed in. And that’s going to happen by the hundreds, probably thousands. Mortgages need to be paid, car lease and debt payments need to be paid.

Watch this space. It’s going to get messy.
...And this guy gets it. Spot on.
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Old 21 March 2020, 11:28 AM   #123
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OP is full of it, sorry. He is trying to induce a drop in price by spreading things like "I received a call from my AD a few days ago, frantically asking me if I was interested in buying 2 SS sports model that usually have significant wait times. His voice was stressed..." Haha. He is not frantic and stressed if he's calling customers. All he has to do is put those "2 SS sports model that usually have significant wait times" in the display case, like it was done, what, two years ago? It'll last a week.

Dealers are not budging. Everyone is betting that the coronavirus is short term. And all facts are pointing to that. That's why grey dealers are holding out. The market will look completely different in five-six months. Six months is not that long when you hold a "significant wait times" Rolex in your collection. It's better than selling at a loss. Rolex watches don't have an expiration date. On the contrary, you have everything to gain by waiting.
"Everyone is betting that the coronavirus is short term. And all facts are pointing to that."

This is there for a lot longer than people want to admit. It is not short term
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Old 21 March 2020, 12:48 PM   #124
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OP is full of it, sorry. He is trying to induce a drop in price by spreading things like "I received a call from my AD a few days ago, frantically asking me if I was interested in buying 2 SS sports model that usually have significant wait times. His voice was stressed..." Haha. He is not frantic and stressed if he's calling customers. All he has to do is put those "2 SS sports model that usually have significant wait times" in the display case, like it was done, what, two years ago? It'll last a week.

Dealers are not budging. Everyone is betting that the coronavirus is short term. And all facts are pointing to that. That's why grey dealers are holding out. The market will look completely different in five-six months. Six months is not that long when you hold a "significant wait times" Rolex in your collection. It's better than selling at a loss. Rolex watches don't have an expiration date. On the contrary, you have everything to gain by waiting.
You’re badly mistaken if you think most businesses can just ‘hold out’ with barely any income for months at a time (not specifically ADs but any smaller business). They will close down. A lot of businesses have already cut employees in certain sectors. If the virus takes hold, this will be a reality and a domino effect to create a true recession.

I don’t know what world this forum lives in thinking all these small businesses have stockpiles of cash in their vault to secure themselves through thick and thin over MONTHS timeframe. It’s kind of baffling.
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Old 21 March 2020, 12:51 PM   #125
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Just a little prediction from me. I'm pretty sure we're going to be seeing all Rolex at MSRP in the coming 6 months. Literally everyone I know is in the process of loosing jobs, and those with businesses are reporting massive drops in income.

On top of that, I received a call from my AD a few days ago, frantically asking me if I was interested in buying 2 SS sports model that usually have significant wait times. His voice was stressed, and I have a feeling I wasn't the first call he made. Some people are turning down these watches now even at MSRP.

We're going through a pandemic here that hasn't even really began, and it has already halted the economy.

Once Rolex factories are back in full production most people will not be in the position to buy a Rolex, and I think we might see a flood of watches come through.

This is my opinion, what's yours?
As a Canadian intensive care unit physician right on the front line, I am willing to bet my own SS sports models on this happening (Maybe not Daytonas, but who knows).

I look at the numbers of my neighbours down south and I am legitimately worried. Stay safe everyone!
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Old 21 March 2020, 12:53 PM   #126
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Literally everyone in here that still believes their stainless steel will be worth a penny over MSRP soon:


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Old 21 March 2020, 01:04 PM   #127
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Literally everyone in here that still believes their stainless steel will be worth a penny over MSRP soon:


+100000

I feel it’s 95% people who bought over MSRP and don’t want that punch to the gut. The numbers are there.
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Old 21 March 2020, 01:05 PM   #128
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I am not so sure. there are lot of ppl with huge bank accounts. if SSD comes to msrp at 13-14k, they can conceivably but ALL of them and hold the price up. just a thought.
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Old 21 March 2020, 01:08 PM   #129
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I am not so sure. there are lot of ppl with huge bank accounts. if SSD comes to msrp at 13-14k, they can conceivably but ALL of them and hold the price up. just a thought.
Do you seriously think the average Rolex buyer is in the 1% with these ‘huge’ bank accounts you speak of? Do people really think owning a simple Rolex watch puts them in the upper echelon? Your normal Rolex owner is also a fairly normal individual. We’re not discussing Patek perpetual calendars.
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Old 21 March 2020, 01:16 PM   #130
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I cant speak for others but for me times like this makes me go into saving mode and making cuts. Reality is who would feel good dropping thousands of dollars on a luxury item in times like this.
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Old 21 March 2020, 01:20 PM   #131
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I am not so sure. there are lot of ppl with huge bank accounts. if SSD comes to msrp at 13-14k, they can conceivably but ALL of them and hold the price up. just a thought.
People with that kind of a bank account are sporting APs, PP, and VCs
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Old 21 March 2020, 01:30 PM   #132
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Rather than beat each other down, why don’t we support each other and show some compassion. All of us are tense and anxious about the future. No one, and I mean no one knows what is going to happen.

If I may add one thought: They interviewed on tv today, a Dr. of Infectious Diseases at Baylor in Texas. He did speak about the physical attributes of Coronavirus, but brought up the psychological problems which are here now and getting worse. Unless we set up some sort of outpatient psychiatric help, he said the tragedies from this virus could be worse for the mentally ill. Even people without these issues are feeling the strain. He was worried about people unable to take the loneliness and solitude and forecasted more suicides.

This segment really hit home with me more than any other interview over the last few days. I have 2 sons that struggle with mental illness, one of them right now is in lots of pain and are working to get him more assistance than he currently gets. I live on the east coast, he lives alone on the west coast. Any of us know that have children which we love, the biggest hurt for a parent is the hurt/pain of their children. We feel so powerless.

I had to write this, perhaps I will feel better about things. Thanks for reading.
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Old 21 March 2020, 01:39 PM   #133
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Please take care. I wish you and your family well.

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Originally Posted by BillA View Post
Rather than beat each other down, why don’t we support each other and show some compassion. All of us are tense and anxious about the future. No one, and I mean no one knows what is going to happen.

If I may add one thought: They interviewed on tv today, a Dr. of Infectious Diseases at Baylor in Texas. He did speak about the physical attributes of Coronavirus, but brought up the psychological problems which are here now and getting worse. Unless we set up some sort of outpatient psychiatric help, he said the tragedies from this virus could be worse for the mentally ill. Even people without these issues are feeling the strain. He was worried about people unable to take the loneliness and solitude and forecasted more suicides.

This segment really hit home with me more than any other interview over the last few days. I have 2 sons that struggle with mental illness, one of them right now is in lots of pain and are working to get him more assistance than he currently gets. I live on the east coast, he lives alone on the west coast. Any of us know that have children which we love, the biggest hurt for a parent is the hurt/pain of their children. We feel so powerless.

I had to write this, perhaps I will feel better about things. Thanks for reading.
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Old 21 March 2020, 01:41 PM   #134
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Originally Posted by mooty View Post
I am not so sure. there are lot of ppl with huge bank accounts. if SSD comes to msrp at 13-14k, they can conceivably but ALL of them and hold the price up. just a thought.

You’re confusing the grey dealers - the ones who buy everything up and inflate the price, with “us”, normal Rolex buyers.
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Old 21 March 2020, 01:52 PM   #135
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Originally Posted by BillA View Post
Rather than beat each other down, why don’t we support each other and show some compassion. All of us are tense and anxious about the future. No one, and I mean no one knows what is going to happen.

If I may add one thought: They interviewed on tv today, a Dr. of Infectious Diseases at Baylor in Texas. He did speak about the physical attributes of Coronavirus, but brought up the psychological problems which are here now and getting worse. Unless we set up some sort of outpatient psychiatric help, he said the tragedies from this virus could be worse for the mentally ill. Even people without these issues are feeling the strain. He was worried about people unable to take the loneliness and solitude and forecasted more suicides.

This segment really hit home with me more than any other interview over the last few days. I have 2 sons that struggle with mental illness, one of them right now is in lots of pain and are working to get him more assistance than he currently gets. I live on the east coast, he lives alone on the west coast. Any of us know that have children which we love, the biggest hurt for a parent is the hurt/pain of their children. We feel so powerless.

I had to write this, perhaps I will feel better about things. Thanks for reading.
I brought this up in another thread. I have seen first hand in my family on my Mothers side what manic depression and mental illness can do. It is truly heartbreaking and I fear many, even those without prior diagnosis are going to suffer more than just the anxiety that we are all feeling. I have definitely seen more people stocking up on booze, my neighbor has even resorted to smoking weed lately.

I wish you and both of your Sons all the best and I hope that they are able to get the care that they need.
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Old 21 March 2020, 01:53 PM   #136
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1 in 5 now filing for Unemployment.....
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Old 21 March 2020, 02:30 PM   #137
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Market is toast. Good thing in this bailout they won't allow stock buybacks.
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Old 21 March 2020, 02:39 PM   #138
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Originally Posted by Alastris View Post
People with that kind of a bank account are sporting APs, PP, and VCs

Not sure what the intent of that statement is but I read that as you saying “people with money don’t buy Rolex”. Not a very nice statement to make on a Rolex forum. Enough said.


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Old 21 March 2020, 02:42 PM   #139
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Originally Posted by BillA View Post
Rather than beat each other down, why don’t we support each other and show some compassion. All of us are tense and anxious about the future. No one, and I mean no one knows what is going to happen.

If I may add one thought: They interviewed on tv today, a Dr. of Infectious Diseases at Baylor in Texas. He did speak about the physical attributes of Coronavirus, but brought up the psychological problems which are here now and getting worse. Unless we set up some sort of outpatient psychiatric help, he said the tragedies from this virus could be worse for the mentally ill. Even people without these issues are feeling the strain. He was worried about people unable to take the loneliness and solitude and forecasted more suicides.

This segment really hit home with me more than any other interview over the last few days. I have 2 sons that struggle with mental illness, one of them right now is in lots of pain and are working to get him more assistance than he currently gets. I live on the east coast, he lives alone on the west coast. Any of us know that have children which we love, the biggest hurt for a parent is the hurt/pain of their children. We feel so powerless.

I had to write this, perhaps I will feel better about things. Thanks for reading.

I’ve seen the challenge of mental health issues in immediate family also. Wish you and your sons the strength and perseverance to overcome these trying times.


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Old 21 March 2020, 02:57 PM   #140
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...Fake news
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Old 21 March 2020, 03:05 PM   #141
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Originally Posted by sgwatchguy View Post
Not sure what the intent of that statement is but I read that as you saying “people with money don’t buy Rolex”. Not a very nice statement to make on a Rolex forum. Enough said.


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You completely misinterpreted what he was saying
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Old 21 March 2020, 03:46 PM   #142
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Yes this makes sense. I can see subs coming back to retail and possible window displays, and Daytonas receiving a reduced wait time.
Already happening. My Dallas AD called me today offering an SS Submariner just siting in his case.
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Old 21 March 2020, 04:03 PM   #143
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Not directed at the OP, just a general comment - I dont understand how people can be optomistic about getting a luxury good at MSRP when on paper losses in retirement and other accounts are massive. I would rather see the BLRO at 3x MSRP and my portfolio back, then availability of hot models.

this, all day every day.
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Old 21 March 2020, 04:11 PM   #144
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Not sure what the intent of that statement is but I read that as you saying “people with money don’t buy Rolex”. Not a very nice statement to make on a Rolex forum. Enough said.


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It's a luxury item achievable by those who don't have to be millionaires. Regular people aspire to them where as they wouldn't have an idea about the trinity as that domain is beyond aspirational.

I don't know if you can get Pateks on 0% finance? Where as you can with a Rolex, if that is any kind of barometer.

Not worth getting hung up on perception rather if you like it personally, Nuff said.
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Old 21 March 2020, 04:15 PM   #145
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I'm going out on a limb and thinking a lot of the people in this thread bought over retail and just plugging their ears with their fingers saying Rolex will always stay above retail. If Rolex are set to drop, this whole situation is going to be the time.
Agreed. The “ over payers” are setting their own comfort level.
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Old 21 March 2020, 04:23 PM   #146
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Submariner

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Already happening. My Dallas AD called me today offering an SS Submariner just siting in his case.
If you are not interested. I will be happy to pick it up for myself.
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Old 21 March 2020, 04:26 PM   #147
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If you are not interested. I will be happy to pick it up for myself.
I’m still curious if they’re releasing a new one
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Old 21 March 2020, 04:46 PM   #148
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What about the second hand market! (5 digits)

The bottom going to drop out of that, and new stock could be on the shelf "a long time"!

We have seen that, before all the Rolex Hype began!

I always wore Rolex as a watch not a status symbol, "look what I've got".
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Old 21 March 2020, 04:57 PM   #149
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What about the second hand market! (5 digits)

The bottom going to drop out of that, and new stock could be on the shelf "a long time"!

We have seen that, before all the Rolex Hype began!

I always wore Rolex as a watch not a status symbol, "look what I've got".
If 5 digit SD returns to 2015 pricing, that’s 100% my next purchase
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Old 21 March 2020, 05:59 PM   #150
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The ripple effects of this are logical. Most people can’t afford to go without one paycheque let alone 2, 3 or more. This is unheard of and likely to last at least 6 to 8 weeks or longer and now with just about everything shut down how can one expect to weather this financially without significant help? I’m not panicked I’m just being logical. What’s going on now is driven by fear and anxiety and is almost surreal. It needs to end soon or the already devastating consequences will be dire. China went through this while the globe watched. Now the entire rest of Western Civilization is living it while China watches. Literally all of Europe is shut down and North America is on the brink of doing the same. We are probably a week away from a global meltdown if the tides don’t turn soon. At that point our watches will be worth much less than they are now.
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