What would make prices go back up?

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by huncho

5. Jerome Powell pivoting

J pow

[Chewbacca]

Originally Posted by GB-man

J pow

I love this.

[RoscoPico]

not sure about going up, but they will be coming down a long way first I can guarantee you that.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by RoscoPico

not sure about going up, but they will be coming down a long way first I can guarantee you that.

[jfmiii]

Originally Posted by njlam

Have the prices of Panda Daytonas gone up less than a barrel of oil?

Over the last 3 years, I think the price of the Daytona has gone up more….


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116500s were what 15k for black and 18k for white in late 2019. They may have been a bit higher actually. Anyway, they’re now 28k for black and call it 32k for white (Moda prices). Crude was $50 in late 2019 and it $90-95 now. Pretty much the same, percentage wise.

What have prices of both done Over the last six months? Not sure what the point of cherry picking periods of time is or what it has to do with price elasticity of demand.

[jfmiii]

Originally Posted by HAL330

but surprisingly more inelastic than one might think..certainly for the category of ultra luxury goods..

Roman sharf claimed that very few retail customers if his were buying Daytonas at $50k. It was dealers flipping to each other who buying at the top.

[Vince_76]

2020/2021 market dynamics.

That ain’t coming back anytime soon.

[HAL330]

Originally Posted by jfmiii

Roman sharf claimed that very few retail customers if his were buying Daytonas at $50k. It was dealers flipping to each other who buying at the top.

truth ...

[shaunylw]

Originally Posted by HiBoost

It seems to me that prices going up (or staying high) only benefits one scenario - selling a watch you already own. For those of us looking to grow our collections, i.e. buy and keep indefinitely, why wouldn't you want the prices as low as possible?

If it was just watches, it would be easy. I want prices as low as possible for pieces i want. But it’s never just watches. Watches flow with the market and everything else going on. So if prices are extremely low, your portfolio is probably hammered, house pieces wrecked, unemployment is up.. it’s all a cycle.


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[HAL330]

Originally Posted by shaunylw

If it was just watches, it would be easy. I want prices as low as possible for pieces i want. But it’s never just watches. Watches flow with the market and everything else going on. So if prices are extremely low, your portfolio is probably hammered, house pieces wrecked, unemployment is up.. it’s all a cycle.


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this basic fact seems lost on so many... but that's it in a nutshell.. the business cycle.

[bluestreak]

Originally Posted by HAL330

this basic fact seems lost on so many... but that's it in a nutshell.. the business cycle.

Truth. So many people hoping for the crash of the world economy so they can get a watch. Seems crazy to me…


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[HAL330]

Originally Posted by bluestreak

Truth. So many people hoping for the crash of the world economy so they can get a watch. Seems crazy to me…


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there will always be more than 800,000 millionaires out there looking to add to their watch collection ... they can keep waiting till the risen Christ returns.

[Cauhauna]

Originally Posted by Roger Lococco

1. Bitcoin at $100k
2. S&P 500 at 5,000 or more
3. China reopening
4. Greater financial stability in the U.S.


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Mr. Locococo, you've nailed it.
Can we interest you in a WG submariner at MSRP while we wait?

[QuelleHeureEstIl]

Originally Posted by bluestreak

Truth. So many people hoping for the crash of the world economy so they can get a watch. Seems crazy to me…

And in the real estate, first time buyers hoping for a crash so they can afford buying a first house and start a family vs baby boomers who own 2-3 houses and want the craze to continue.

And also families with low income who need to buy a car vs car collectors.

etc.

For decades, the inflation has been in the price of many asset classes. Result is that the cost of the entry ticket increased and got unaffordable. Politicians had to find temporary workarounds which worsen the situation.

Indeed now there are very conflicting interests between generations (in the broad sense). :(

[Swiftneck]

Prices will for most watches eventually come down to a price close to MRSP. If Rolex did´nt have the intend or belive that they would ever again be able to meet the demand, they would naturally have raised the prices to the market price (the price who fits supply/demand) and have taken the profit them self.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by bluestreak

Truth. So many people hoping for the crash of the world economy so they can get a watch. Seems crazy to me…


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And seems perfectly normal to many people here

[nachopc]

Rolex will be always Rolex, who cares about prices, if you are concern, buy, wear and don’t sell. That way you will always make money and happiness.


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[Driver8]

Originally Posted by bluestreak

Truth. So many people hoping for the crash of the world economy so they can get a watch. Seems crazy to me…

Yes, but surely no-one is actually saying they want the world economy to crash to be able to afford a watch. Some people are simply saying they'd like to see Rolex market prices come down a bit. It's only in the last few years that the hype train has taken over where Rolex is concerned, and let's not kid ourselves that Rolex market prices are anything other than hype-driven. Yes, the most likely way for prices to come down would be a global recession (which we're already on the brink of anyway), but another way would be for so-called "influencers" to move on to the next big thing and drag all the investment sheep with them.

[Mystro]

Originally Posted by nachopc

Rolex will be always Rolex, who cares about prices, if you are concern, buy, wear and don’t sell. That way you will always make money and happiness.


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That’s the truth. In the long term ownership perspective, even if you bought high market value, your watches value will eventually catch up over time if that even matters. Rolex watches in general are not a big ticket cost to even moderately wealthy so prices up or down is not as important as availability.

[beshannon]

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by shaunylw

...it’s all a cycle.

Agreed, it's really all just part of the normal decades-long CONfidence game central banks play. It's a feature, not a bug. Seems we're now on a ~12 year cycle. So invest now for the next bubble that should start hotting up around 2030 and reach a peak around 2034.

[Mini2]

Originally Posted by jfmiii

116500s were what 15k for black and 18k for white in late 2019. They may have been a bit higher actually. Anyway, they’re now 28k for black and call it 32k for white (Moda prices). Crude was $50 in late 2019 and it $90-95 now. Pretty much the same, percentage wise.

What have prices of both done Over the last six months? Not sure what the point of cherry picking periods of time is or what it has to do with price elasticity of demand.

IMO cost of services go up cost of luxury goods should go down

[HiBoost]

Originally Posted by shaunylw

If it was just watches, it would be easy. I want prices as low as possible for pieces i want. But it’s never just watches. Watches flow with the market and everything else going on. So if prices are extremely low, your portfolio is probably hammered, house pieces wrecked, unemployment is up.. it’s all a cycle.


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That still shouldn't change things. You shouldn't be selling stocks or real estate to buy watches either. When the stock market drops I view that as a great time to buy more stocks. I certainly don't sell any :) Now sure, if you lose your job then that's going to change everything. But many people on these forums will keep making their same salaries while the market prices for all sorts of things drop. That's the ideal time to acquire. Buying a steel Daytona for $50k just because your 401k is at an all time high is not the way to go.

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[fsprow]

I believe that as with all economic cycles, there is no way to predict what the future will bring in the near to medium term. As regards watches, I imagine that in the long term as long as demand is solid, watch prices will tend to appreciate.

[SS Oyster]

It’s all about supply and demand.


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[HiBoost]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Because it devalues what everyone owns and then no one will want it. People here seem to want prices to only go up because they feel better about their investment decisions and their worth as individuals.

And in the case of the OP question, most would rather have a good economy with rising prices than a deflationary sprial where no one buys and everyone sells.

Well obviously you can't sell if "nobody" is buying. But we'll never see that level of doom and gloom. The truly rich are always there to swoop in and capitalize on other's misery. Your comments still read like you consider watches primarily to be an asset class. My soul aches for a 16710BLRO and that's not going to change whether the market price is $18k or $3k. But if it's the latter I can buy one for me and my brother and my wife will only be 1/3 as irritated :)

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[beshannon]

Originally Posted by HiBoost

Your comments still read like you consider watches primarily to be an asset class.

I have never said that, I merely parrot what others here seem to desire most.

[dtwer]

Originally Posted by QuelleHeureEstIl

And in the real estate, first time buyers hoping for a crash so they can afford buying a first house and start a family vs baby boomers who own 2-3 houses and want the craze to continue.

And also families with low income who need to buy a car vs car collectors.

etc.

For decades, the inflation has been in the price of many asset classes. Result is that the cost of the entry ticket increased and got unaffordable. Politicians had to find temporary workarounds which worsen the situation.

Indeed now there are very conflicting interests between generations (in the broad sense). :(

No, this is not a rich vs. poor, or young vs. old thing.

Low income earners can't afford to buy a car because prices are inflating way above their affordability threshold, not because the wealthy people collect and hoard all the affordable Nissan Versa's. The market segment for the low income earners and that for the affluent are two completely separate worlds; one has nothing to do with the other.

Similarly with housing. The real estate market is way more sophisticated and complicated than the simplistic "someone owning 3 houses is responsible for 2 others not being able to buy a house" explanation. Housing affordability has way more to do with location, financial means of buyer, interest rate, or even overall consumer confidence than it does with who owns how many.

[jfmiii]

Doesnt look like prices are headed back up

[HAL330]

Originally Posted by jfmiii

Doesnt look like prices are headed back up

that thing is so beat to $hit that it's beyond repair... over polished, typical MODA watch.. which is what they're not the market.