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Old 15 December 2020, 05:21 PM   #331
Nairn1980
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I'm awake! Still no lower prices? I checked out after getting my 114060 in the summer.
You did argue your case passionately
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Old 15 December 2020, 05:27 PM   #332
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This is an interesting perspective, although I don't think this would happen quickly. Perhaps 1 or 2 years down the road after the pandemic once the economy recovers.

Rolex's slow down in production will not affect immediate supply, but maybe 6 months to 1 year later we will see the impact. This is a company that plans far in advance and may possibly have all of this years stock already produced and ready to ship out.
Rolex has stopped production for a while during the pandemic so their usual supply wont be there even if the economy was normal , I think the stopping of VAT refunds for overseas buyers will free up a lot more stock in London
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Old 8 June 2021, 08:14 AM   #333
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Just a little prediction from me. I'm pretty sure we're going to be seeing all Rolex at MSRP in the coming 6 months. Literally everyone I know is in the process of loosing jobs, and those with businesses are reporting massive drops in income.



On top of that, I received a call from my AD a few days ago, frantically asking me if I was interested in buying 2 SS sports model that usually have significant wait times. His voice was stressed, and I have a feeling I wasn't the first call he made. Some people are turning down these watches now even at MSRP.



We're going through a pandemic here that hasn't even really began, and it has already halted the economy.



Once Rolex factories are back in full production most people will not be in the position to buy a Rolex, and I think we might see a flood of watches come through.



This is my opinion, what's yours?
Just thought I'd reignite this...

Didn't get my Daytona at retail :(

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Old 8 June 2021, 08:31 AM   #334
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Just a little prediction from me. I'm pretty sure we're going to be seeing all Rolex at MSRP in the coming 6 months. Literally everyone I know is in the process of loosing jobs, and those with businesses are reporting massive drops in income.

On top of that, I received a call from my AD a few days ago, frantically asking me if I was interested in buying 2 SS sports model that usually have significant wait times. His voice was stressed, and I have a feeling I wasn't the first call he made. Some people are turning down these watches now even at MSRP.

We're going through a pandemic here that hasn't even really began, and it has already halted the economy.

Once Rolex factories are back in full production most people will not be in the position to buy a Rolex, and I think we might see a flood of watches come through.

This is my opinion, what's yours?
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I write quite a few blog posts but don't usually link to them here unless they're quite relevant to our shared Rolex passion. Since this one might benefit a bunch of us looking to buy a Daytona but are tired of the AD games, I'll drop the link here: Better Alternatives to the Rolex Daytona.

My first choice happens to be the Girard Perregaux Laureato Chronograph, which I feel (after countless comparisons) might be a more interesting higher quality alternative to the Daytona. If I had both side by side and ignored resale value, and ignored iconic status - the Laureato Chrono might win for me. GP was founded in 1791 and the history of the brand is quite incredible, the craftsmanship in their watches is on par with Audemars Piguet.

Of course nothing is going to ever replace the Daytona if that's the watch you're dead set on, but no harm in checking out the competition especially in such a one sided market like the one we're currently in.

My other alternative picks were a bit more obvious: Speedmaster Moonwatch, Zenith Chronomaster Sport, Tudor Black Bay Chrono.

Would love to hear some thoughts on this and if you'd be able to accept an alternative to the Daytona or if it's just a watch that cant be replaced.

Tired of waiting for the bottom of the Daytona market to drop out?
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Old 8 June 2021, 08:36 AM   #335
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OP
When you first made the prediction in March of 2020, it was a good prediction due to Covid and the economies crashing around the world.
However, it did not happen. MSRP of SS sport Rolexes are even higher, I think is nuts to pay this, that is why I will not be wearing one, but people can spend their money as they wish.
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Old 8 June 2021, 08:52 AM   #336
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In late March. / early April 2020, prices did come down but only for about 2 weeks. I was able to repurchase my BLNR from the buyer because his business needed money in mid-April. Even paid less than what I sold it.

Full set late series 16520 Daytona models decreased about 20% during that period. Even ceramic Daytona models went back to the low $20s but not for long. Since late April 2020, everything blew up. Houses, sneakers, collector cars, watches, and even mass produced baseball cards from the 1980s. I was even able to buy a 1984 Fleer Update set for $625 (16 of the key stars & rookies are PSA-9 graded plus a PSA- 9 Fleer John Stockton rookie thrown in) in late March. Probably would sell for closer to $1,800 just for the set.
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Old 8 June 2021, 09:02 AM   #337
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Lol daytona at retail....not April fools yet
Yea looks like I won that one lol
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Old 8 June 2021, 09:10 AM   #338
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This did not age well.
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Old 8 June 2021, 09:12 AM   #339
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I’m predicting OP doesn’t check this thread anymore:)
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Old 8 June 2021, 09:27 AM   #340
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What pandemic?
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Old 8 June 2021, 10:47 AM   #341
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What pandemic?
Even Pandemic itself is on a wait list for one SS Sports
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Old 8 June 2021, 10:49 AM   #342
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the availability of SS sports at retail has always been the pandemic
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Old 8 June 2021, 10:52 AM   #343
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This did not age well.

Not even a little bit.


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Old 8 June 2021, 10:57 AM   #344
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Supply and demand. In previous crash, demand dropped while supply remain the same. This time, the demand dropped (for a brief 3 months) but supply also dropped (to nearly zero) since no one can go into work and manufacture those watches.
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Old 8 June 2021, 11:27 AM   #345
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Supply and demand. In previous crash, demand dropped while supply remain the same. This time, the demand dropped (for a brief 3 months) but supply also dropped (to nearly zero) since no one can go into work and manufacture those watches.
Exactly. In the previous crash, Rolexes were dropping in value as more and more people were pawning them off to pay bills and try to avoid foreclosure. Here on this very forum a dentist took a GMTIIc in as a barter trade from a cash client for dental work and he sold it here for $5,000 flat. I remember the sale. Most pre-owned were selling for ~$5,500 during that time and that set the bar for the lowest ceramic price that I had seen.
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Old 8 June 2021, 11:29 AM   #346
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yeah no one could have predicted they doubled..
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Old 8 June 2021, 11:32 AM   #347
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Rolex followed stock market confidence fairly well. Once things shored up it was back on and the factories weren't.
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Old 8 June 2021, 11:44 AM   #348
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In late March. / early April 2020, prices did come down but only for about 2 weeks. I was able to repurchase my BLNR from the buyer because his business needed money in mid-April. Even paid less than what I sold it.

Full set late series 16520 Daytona models decreased about 20% during that period. Even ceramic Daytona models went back to the low $20s but not for long. Since late April 2020, everything blew up. Houses, sneakers, collector cars, watches, and even mass produced baseball cards from the 1980s. I was even able to buy a 1984 Fleer Update set for $625 (16 of the key stars & rookies are PSA-9 graded plus a PSA- 9 Fleer John Stockton rookie thrown in) in late March. Probably would sell for closer to $1,800 just for the set.
I heard baseball cards were back. That floors me, having been of the age to see the first bubble burst so magnificently. My home town of 40,000 people probably had 6 or 7 card shops in the mid-80's. Only one survived because it wasn't their only trade. Comics, CDs and video games carried them through the 90's and 00's. Now they trade in general nostalgia items from the 80's and 90's and still do OK. The general public reminds me of those nature documentaries with huge schools of fish suddenly darting this way and that. You never know which direction the public will suddenly go.
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Old 8 June 2021, 11:46 AM   #349
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Just a little prediction from me. I'm pretty sure we're going to be seeing all Rolex at MSRP in the coming 6 months. Literally everyone I know is in the process of loosing jobs, and those with businesses are reporting massive drops in income.

On top of that, I received a call from my AD a few days ago, frantically asking me if I was interested in buying 2 SS sports model that usually have significant wait times. His voice was stressed, and I have a feeling I wasn't the first call he made. Some people are turning down these watches now even at MSRP.

We're going through a pandemic here that hasn't even really began, and it has already halted the economy.

Once Rolex factories are back in full production most people will not be in the position to buy a Rolex, and I think we might see a flood of watches come through.

This is my opinion, what's yours?
I don’t know what the situation in the UK is. There may be legitimate reason for concern. Same with some parts of continental Europe. And yes, the world will pay dearly for the insanity and mismanagement that took place over the past several months. But at least here in the US nobody is losing jobs. In fact, there is a massive labor shortage - even worse than before the pandemic. We can’t find people to hire. At my place we have about 10% of total jobs vacant. And those are not all low paying jobs. And people are still sitting on piles of cash and other assets. So, I think between US customers and all that new money in Asia and the Middle East prices for luxury items may continue to rise. Not entirely sure what that will do to case sizes and the increasing ugliness of luxury brand cars…
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Old 8 June 2021, 11:48 AM   #350
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There was never as much as a pump the brakes on demand for Rolex during the pandemic. Lots of doomsday predictions economically but it never happened. I was so convinced I would eventually be unable to get any new Rolex at MSRP from an AD, I quickly started hunting for a good deal on a Bluesy from a grey last May/June. Im enjoying my pandemic Bluesy and I cannot get anything from an AD currently and my main AD for the past 22 years lost their Rolex franchise.

I think everything my economics professor taught me was so dead on...
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Old 8 June 2021, 02:30 PM   #351
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SS Sports Models Coming back to MSRP

Op deserves a pass. Those were though times for many and still is for some. Maybe time to lock thread?
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Old 8 June 2021, 04:16 PM   #352
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This did not age well.


+1
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Old 8 June 2021, 04:50 PM   #353
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Hopefully OP isn’t a stockbroker
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Old 8 June 2021, 05:03 PM   #354
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Op deserves a pass. Those were though times for many and still is for some. Maybe time to lock thread?
OP definitely deserves a pass, I think most people expected the markets to fall and world economies to go into a deep recession followed by a decline in luxury goods. The opposite has happened, but there is no need to be smug about it. Most on here are extremely privileged (and worked very hard to get themselves into a good financial situation) and we should be grateful of our good fortune.

Fair play to the OP for posting up his prediction and not sitting on the fence. I for one am happy he got this one wrong!
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Old 8 June 2021, 05:17 PM   #355
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I agree that the OP should get a break. He made the right call …the market just acted different, and across different asset classes prices are walking on water.
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Old 8 June 2021, 05:27 PM   #356
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I agree that the OP should get a break. He made the right call …the market just acted different, and across different asset classes prices are walking on water.
Made the right call? The dude was blatantly wrong. No shame about that, no one can predict the future, but to say that he made the right call is a bit of a stretch
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Old 8 June 2021, 06:25 PM   #357
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I think that the prediction was a smart one, but Rolex saw it too and did a hell of a good job by strangling the supply flow and infusing scarcity to retain the value.
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Old 8 June 2021, 06:40 PM   #358
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I think that the prediction was a smart one, but Rolex saw it too and did a hell of a good job by strangling the supply flow and infusing scarcity to retain the value.
Rolex didn't have to do much, if anything at all.
The secondary market price hike had been going on well before the pandemic.
And this thread serves to prove wrong all those who predicted economic doom and gloom because of the pandemic. The 2008 crisis was a totally different story.
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Old 8 June 2021, 07:10 PM   #359
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OP
When you first made the prediction in March of 2020, it was a good prediction
LOL! The thing about a good prediction is it is only verified as good if it turns out to be accurate.

I wish it had been.
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Old 8 June 2021, 08:27 PM   #360
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LOL! The thing about a good prediction is it is only verified as good if it turns out to be accurate.

I wish it had been.
You wish more people had lost their jobs, more businesses had lost their income and asset prices had collapsed?
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