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25 February 2020, 12:22 PM | #121 |
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Luxury goods don't usually do great in downturns.
(Look at the value of Bugatti Veyrons in 2008 compared to now.) |
25 February 2020, 01:34 PM | #122 |
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25 February 2020, 01:41 PM | #123 | |
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If those watches are genuine and not fakes, that photo is incredible and disturbing. If there are 100 such grey operators each with that many “hot” pieces, they could absolutely manipulate the market. You’d like to think that if Rolex saw this, they’d want to act. However, in producing one million watches a year, what can they realistically do? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
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25 February 2020, 01:54 PM | #124 | |
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Gold. USD.
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26 February 2020, 04:23 AM | #125 | |
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26 February 2020, 05:32 AM | #126 |
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Why would grey dealers post pictures of such inventory?
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26 February 2020, 05:53 AM | #127 | |
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chf.... |
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26 February 2020, 06:50 AM | #128 |
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I think if coronavirus takes down the global economy we will buy Patek Nautilus at maximum 30% of the list price and AD will please us to buy one and second Nautilus is a gift!!
On Rolex situation will be more friendly, they will sell us a Sub, GMT BLRO and Daytona in buckets on 25% of the price!! ������ Guys the hot pieces will remain hot with or without coronavirus. Because this game it’s a marketing strategy. Yap if the coronavirus put down the economy I really think Patek and Rolex will cut number of hot pieces production and the hot pieces like Nautilus and Daytona will remain HOT. Just my opinion... |
26 February 2020, 09:59 AM | #129 | |
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I heard Mr. Stern is ready to cut prices of Patek by 50% if the market continues to crash. Buy gold references as gold will do best in a depression or so I heard.
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26 February 2020, 01:42 PM | #130 | ||
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This is from a somewhat reputable (as I'm told) grey dealer: https://www.instagram.com/watchtradingco/ So, those don't appear to be fake to me, nor are they from a distributor/importer. :( |
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26 February 2020, 05:07 PM | #131 |
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The bubble is what we watch fans are trapped in!
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26 February 2020, 06:25 PM | #132 |
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18 May 2021, 10:55 AM | #133 |
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Interesting to bump this thread.
All this time later, and watches are just the start. Cars, art, crypto, homes, etc... Interesting times we are living in. I think the world is in this crazy euphoric state. A bubble of some sort must burst. But I personally don’t think it’ll be something we’ve seen before. Given inflation, I see prices just continuing to go up. Not saying watches are a hood investment strategy. By no means. In fact, just the opposite. But given inflation and rushing prices, might not be a terrible thing to have a watch on your wrist that you enjoy and is likely getting more costly to buy vs money in the bank that is losing value. Balance of investments, along with cash flow are imho the way to go. Everything else, no one knows. After all, just look at this thread.
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19 May 2021, 01:15 AM | #134 | |
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19 May 2021, 01:20 AM | #135 | |
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of course it all comes down to what price you buy them at as well, but as you said these are unprecedented times and this can keep going for a few more years |
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19 May 2021, 07:41 PM | #136 |
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If you buy something and it goes up in value to the point where you can sell it and make a profit, it was an investment. Maybe when you bought it you didn't know it was an investment, but you can't be blamed for that, often circumstances are beyond your control. Personally, with the advantage of hindsight, I like to rebrand my spending decisions; 5711a was an investment, Lange 1815 was a luxury purchase. No mistakes.
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19 May 2021, 09:11 PM | #137 | |
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20 May 2021, 12:41 AM | #138 |
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Exactly! Investments are supposed to make money for you. If you lose money it wasn't an investment, it was a speculation, you just thought it was an investment. In the stock market, particularly, a better term than investment would be "crapshoot". Only afterwards can you determine whether or not it was an investment.
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20 May 2021, 01:27 AM | #139 | |
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Investments are allocations made with the expectation of future returns. Appreciation in value doesn’t suddenly make an asset an investment just because of the appreciation per se. |
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20 May 2021, 09:26 AM | #140 |
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Wait, are we having a debate on whether or not modern generally still-in-production watches with no hard / numbered limitation are "investments"?
They aren't. Vintage watches, sure. Same argument goes for cars. Most are not. Some, a very select few are, and so are vintage cars. |
20 May 2021, 02:49 PM | #141 |
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Simple - just sell your Bubbleback collection and you have the millions to buy SS Pateks.
Because Bubblebacks are a safe investment, the only way is up. |
22 May 2021, 08:34 PM | #142 | |
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I do try to stick with Benjamin Graham and David Dodd's attempt at defining "investment" and "speculation" in Security Analysis (from 1934): “An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and a satisfactory return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative.” It is as simple as that. However much certain PP references have shot up in market value they still do not "promise safety of principal" (unless perhaps if bought at retail price ) |
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23 May 2021, 12:36 AM | #143 | |
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But your point is taken. |
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23 May 2021, 12:46 AM | #144 | |
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I think the current situation is more of a Ponzi scheme than a bubble. Why? Because when there are not enough suckers buying 100k 5711s, then the scheme will pop. The dance of musical chairs.
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