What differentiates the current state of Rolex vs. Panerai's from 5-7 years ago?

[JParm]

Outside of the argument that "Rolex is Rolex", what do you guys see differently between Rolex pricing today as compared to Panerai from a few years ago, when pricing was through the roof on every model in the grey market and you couldn't find the most desirable models in stores?

Panerai might have caused some of their downfall in pricing by releasing too many LE's and even non-LE pieces that all were very similar in style. While I don't see Rolex doing something to that extent, do you guys see similarities between the hot Rolex prices now vs. the hot prices of Panerai (and subsequent vast reductions) of yesteryear?

[manh3]

Not everyone can rock a 44mm plus Panerai. Only so many folks with 7.5 plus wrist with disposable income in the world you can sell a watch too

[donq]

Panerai basically make two watches, the big square case pocket watch looking one, and the one with the weird crown lock thing.

They are pretty limited with what they can do, and with who will buy.

They also engage in some pretty deceptive marketing, which can’t help matters any.

[Carry The Interest]

Originally Posted by donq

Panerai basically make two watches, the big square case pocket watch looking one, and the one with the weird crown lock thing.

They are pretty limited with what they can do, and with who will buy.

They also engage in some pretty deceptive marketing, which can’t help matters any.

Curious - could you elaborate on your point regarding the deceptive marketing?

I have an interest in some of the Panerai pieces but wrote the brand off for the longest time due to my wrist size (~6.8mm). Recently I walked into their Rodeo Drive showroom to take a look. I thought the Due 42mm looked pretty nice on my wrist -- the slimmer case really helps trim down the size and not drown out my wrist. In comparison, the 42mm Sky Dweller just looks silly on me.

The unfortunate thing for the brand is (and I wonder how true this holds with others here) that while I liked the watch there are plenty of other pieces I'd like to add to my collection first.

[ArtNouveau]

I've owned three PAMs over the years, none currently. I still like them but I was soured circa 2012 or so by some of the things that are similar to today's Rolex market.
Basically cool products that the average Joe will never have a chance to buy at MSRP. I went to a Paneristi gathering in NJ around then while on a NY vacation. Most there had every one of the hot pieces which they got by buying ALL of them from their boutique/dealer buddy. Sound familiar? I hope the day returns when most models can be purchased by an average customer within a reasonable timeframe.

[Rolex fan 61]

The Panerai brand was basically saved by Sylvester Stallone who is a big fan of the watches and has worn them in many of his films.

[ArtNouveau]

I don't think saved is the right word, Panerai was being brought back from the ashes in the early 90's. Sly and Arnold were prominent early adopters who certainly helped start the craze.

[Bobby T]

Cool watches but after awhile, everything started to look the same. When they would, every so often, come out with a super desirable piece, like The Bronzo, no one could get them but the usual suspects. Today, you can buy the most popular and iconic looking watches in heir line for 50% off from grey market sellers.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by Bobby T

Cool watches but after awhile, everything started to look the same. When they would, every so often, come out with a super desirable piece, like The Bronzo, no one could get them but the usual suspects. Today, you can buy the most popular and iconic looking watches in heir line for 50% off from grey market sellers.

Right - but my point is that Rolex is in the same boat, with desirable pieces not being attainable at MSRP or unless you have the right relationships.

What's stopping Rolexes from going down the same path in the future in terms of loss of value?

[brucethemanlee]

These things come in waves. Rolex will come down in time but not like Panerai as the base of consumers for Rolex is much larger

Panerai was never my thing as I am Rolex person but recently picked up PAM911 to add collection. Yes they are big but it still fits my 6.75 wrist nicely and is nice change from Rolex





Here's comparison to my Daytona




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Urosfan]

Nice pam

[breitlings]

imho rolex won’t build more to meet demand and are optimizing for longer periods.

[jets]

Originally Posted by Carry The Interest

Curious - could you elaborate on your point regarding the deceptive marketing?

I have an interest in some of the Panerai pieces but wrote the brand off for the longest time due to my wrist size (~6.8mm). Recently I walked into their Rodeo Drive showroom to take a look. I thought the Due 42mm looked pretty nice on my wrist -- the slimmer case really helps trim down the size and not drown out my wrist. In comparison, the 42mm Sky Dweller just looks silly on me.

The unfortunate thing for the brand is (and I wonder how true this holds with others here) that while I liked the watch there are plenty of other pieces I'd like to add to my collection first.

Don't know about deceptive marketing but watch this re due I found he hit many points spot on.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UrgyJLQcsJU

[Helmi]

Looking at the history, Rolex old models are keeping their value very well. In fact they appreciate . Rolex is owned by private charitable organization and they don’t care about fast profits. All these factors keep them in good shape. Panerai cannot be compared to Rolex history-wise and the brand is not as strong as rolex

[Onikage]

The special secret unfinished ETA movement edition in particular was a dirty trick their reputation won't fully recover from. As has been said other watches from makers who don't pull such stunts are higher up my list. Unbelieveable how the head honchos at Panerai thought that would be a good idea and not absolutely ruinous to the brand.

[Zakalwe]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Right - but my point is that Rolex is in the same boat, with desirable pieces not being attainable at MSRP or unless you have the right relationships.

What's stopping Rolexes from going down the same path in the future in terms of loss of value?

I think the first two posters pretty much answered this question.

Assuming we’re talking about the currently hyped Rolexes - Subs, GMT’s and Daytona’s in SS, there is simply a much bigger market for these watches so the demand, whilst it may fluctuate, will not crash. Panerai cashed in on the fashion for big watches - a fashion which it appears may be on the wane. Their designs are also very polarising; lots of people, myself included, would not look twice at one. By contrast even an ardent Rolex hater, at least one who knows anything about watches, will concede that they are classical designs, made in sizes that suit anything from a 6.5-8 inch wrist (which includes pretty much every grown man who isn’t morbidly obese or a giant) that are built to last. All these things help to prop up secondary value. If you’re spending thousands on a second-hand watch it’s nice to know it won’t go out of fashion and won’t break 5 years down the line when you want to flip it.

[AK797]

PAMs are unorthodox looking unlike conventional Rolexes so high demand is not so sustainable, I for one was very tempted when they were more hyped than Rolexes back then but couldn't quite pull the trigger. I also believe the fakes were so good by the end that not only were many buying those instead but it also tarnished the brand when they could be made so accurately. The Rolex status name is so strong that even super fakes won't give the same cachet to owners for this to happen to Rolex.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Zakalwe

I think the first two posters pretty much answered this question.

Assuming we’re talking about the currently hyped Rolexes - Subs, GMT’s and Daytona’s in SS, there is simply a much bigger market for these watches so the demand, whilst it may fluctuate, will not crash. Panerai cashed in on the fashion for big watches - a fashion which it appears may be on the wane. Their designs are also very polarising; lots of people, myself included, would not look twice at one. By contrast even an ardent Rolex hater, at least one who knows anything about watches, will concede that they are classical designs, made in sizes that suit anything from a 6.5-8 inch wrist (which includes pretty much every grown man who isn’t morbidly obese or a giant) that are built to last. All these things help to prop up secondary value. If you’re spending thousands on a second-hand watch it’s nice to know it won’t go out of fashion and won’t break 5 years down the line when you want to flip it.

You can’t seriously be on this ‘big watches are going out of style’ train. Really? That’s why Rolex, one of the most conservative brands there is, has the 44mm Yachtmaster II, 43mm Sea Dweller, 42mm Sky Dweller, 42mm ExplorerII and 44mm DeepSea. 42-44mm (the exact size you’re using as a comparison with Panerai) is not ever going to ‘be on its way out’. It’s here to stay. Fact. And I don’t even like stuff 43-44mm, I can just admit the reality.

[79280_116520]

Panerai's downfall was greed built on their marketing team creating a false history for their brand. Rolex never falsified their history, Panerai abused it.

There's plenty of "hush hush" vintage Panerai scams going about. Just look up Perezscope on Instagram, he's documented everything.

[Zakalwe]

Originally Posted by dmash

You can’t seriously be on this ‘big watches are going out of style’ train. Really? That’s why Rolex, one of the most conservative brands there is, has the 44mm Yachtmaster II, 43mm Sea Dweller, 42mm Sky Dweller and 44mm DeepSea. 42-44mm (the exact size you’re using as a comparison with Panerai) is not ever going to ‘be on its way out’. It’s here to stay. Fact. And I don’t even like stuff 43-44mm, I can just admit the reality.

Only fools profess certainty. Which is why I included the words “...appears may be...”. I could of course be wrong.

That being said, Rolex sells far, far more watches at 41mm and under than over. There will always be people who like bigger watches. But the majority will tend to favour the middle ground, so I think it’s reasonable able to suggest the market for 39-41mm watches will tend to be bigger than the market for 42mm+ watches.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Zakalwe

Only fools profess certainty. Which is why I included the words “...appears may be...”. I could of course be wrong.

That being said, Rolex sells far, far more watches at 41mm and under than over. There will always be people who like bigger watches. But the majority will tend to favour the middle ground, so I think it’s reasonable able to suggest the market for 39-41mm watches will tend to be bigger than the market for 42mm+ watches.

‘Only fools profess certainty’ then claims to know Rolex sales numbers for all their models worldwide.


The thing is, 42-44 isn’t really ‘big’ anymore. It’s starting to skew towards 40 is small for a sport watch. Just the way things are going, and Rolex’s new releases confirm this.

Not trying to argue with you, it’s just the way everything is settling in. And this is coming from somebody with favorite sizes at 38mm dress, and 40-42mm for sport.

[Zakalwe]

Originally Posted by dmash

‘Only fools profess certainty’ then claims to know Rolex sales numbers for all their models worldwide.

It’s hardly controversial to suggest that Yachmaster II + SeaDweller + DSSD + Skydweller are significantly outsold by DJ + Sub + GMT + Daytona + OP + everything else that Rolex makes is it?

Again, perhaps I’m wrong. Or a fool. Or both.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Zakalwe

It’s hardly controversial to suggest that Yachmaster II + SeaDweller + DSSD + Skydweller are significantly outsold by DJ + Sub + GMT + Daytona + OP + everything else that Rolex makes is it?

Again, perhaps I’m wrong. Or a fool. Or both.

Haha I’m only poking fun with you about that man, I agree with you Datejusts ALONE probably outsell those.

[Zakalwe]

Originally Posted by dmash

Haha I’m only poking fun with you about that man, I agree with you Datejusts ALONE probably outsell those.

Damn. You whooshed me.

[Fleetlord]

In the early days Panerai practiced strict Millesimation.

They had limited models and within that limited lineup were limited production numbers.

Pam models were hard to find and peeps on Paneristi would give field reports as to what dealers had what. Watches like the 000 were really hard to find for example. It was fun to search AD for them and see what would be there.

But then the brand started to make mistakes. Raising prices AND production is a deadly combination to a luxury brand. They had way too many watches and they were too expensive.

They also did too many LE that nobody could get outside of the clique. This is different than what is going on with Rolex. There isn't a collector collusion against another person getting a Daytona. It is up to the dealer and your relationship with the dealer...
With the Panerai LE you had to be one of the cool kids to get the watch, so it was very off putting to many...

So that leaves Panerai where they are now. Struggling to be relevant.

Can they recover? Idk. I still like their watches, but I haven't seen them fix their overproduction issues.

Rolex as a brand is infinitely stronger than Panerai. Rolex is so strong they actually undersold themselves for years. Now we are seeing how badly people really want Rolex. It's a sight to see.

[jfmiii]

there isnt much difference imo. the crowd here will tell you differently. there also isnt much difference between what is happening now and what happened in the 80s with Bubble Backs. everything comes in cycles. but but this time is different. it's always different during bubbles.

[sedatesix]

Originally Posted by dmash

You can’t seriously be on this ‘big watches are going out of style’ train. Really? That’s why Rolex, one of the most conservative brands there is, has the 44mm Yachtmaster II, 43mm Sea Dweller, 42mm Sky Dweller, 42mm ExplorerII and 44mm DeepSea. 42-44mm (the exact size you’re using as a comparison with Panerai) is not ever going to ‘be on its way out’. It’s here to stay. Fact. And I don’t even like stuff 43-44mm, I can just admit the reality.

[Watch This]

Originally Posted by Bobby T

Cool watches but after awhile, everything started to look the same. When they would, every so often, come out with a super desirable piece, like The Bronzo, no one could get them but the usual suspects. Today, you can buy the most popular and iconic looking watches in heir line for 50% off from grey market sellers.

This 100%

[dmash]

To put Panerai prices into perspective, I sold my USED PAM312 in 2012, for more than I can buy a BNIB one right now.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

In the early days Panerai practiced strict Millesimation.

They had limited models and within that limited lineup were limited production numbers.

Pam models were hard to find and peeps on Paneristi would give field reports as to what dealers had what. Watches like the 000 were really hard to find for example. It was fun to search AD for them and see what would be there.

But then the brand started to make mistakes. Raising prices AND production is a deadly combination to a luxury brand. They had way too many watches and they were too expensive.

Great point there; that's recipe for disaster.