The vintage market

[onthedial]

Earlier today I posted a comment on @AuctionLytics IG feed wherein he drew a provocative analogy between the warning signs of the market crash of 1929 and the prominence of retro-styled watches at Baselworld 2017. I wrote:
A similar “Rockefeller experience”… Just entering the workforce and knowing very little about investing, I remember being at a Pro tennis tournament in the late 90’s and overhearing 12 year old kids giving each other (tech) stock tips. The feeling was, Easy money was being made so why not go all-in? It wasn’t long before the dot-com bubble burst and the NASDAQ lost 75% of its value and over 6 Trillion dollars’ worth of (paper) wealth vanished. A lot of the problem during “tech-market mania” had to do with speculative investing in companies that had no track record of generating income, either for the business itself or for its investors. Is there any correlation with the vintage watch market? Probably not, but for the sake of argument, one COULD come to the conclusion that recent prices for many vintage watches have risen too quickly, too sharply and are in “speculative” territory. Will the vintage watch market soften? Yes, definitely. Will it crash? That remains to be seen, but I personally don’t see a driver for that event in the foreseeable future, that is, barring another catastrophic economic event that impacts ALL markets.
___________
Instagram: @onthedial

[chadchappy]

Love hearing the different takes in this thread.

Given the underwhelming response to the releases (from Rolex) at BaselWorld, I'll guess that vintage will remain hot for a bit longer.

[jfmiii]

Originally Posted by Sublovin

Here's my overall perspective. I will tie it to another interest of mine...cars
Bubble backs were all the rage back when people wanted old brass cars...they romanticized them in their minds. The people who were in a position to buy them years later, remembered them from their youth.
Vintage Rolex from the 60's and 70's are much the same. The people driving the market are mostly people who remember seeing the ads as kids, or their grandfather had one....now they are successful and have the means to fulfill that lifelong dream of owning them.
Cars have done the same. In the 1980's everyone wanted Brass, then it moved to 50's T-Birds and the like. By the turn of the century the 60's muscle cars really heated up.
15 years ago you could buy a 1979 Trans Am for a couple grand...nobody cared. Guess what, now they are six figure cars.
The past few years have been the older European sports cars....cars like Lamborghini Countach and Old Ferrari's. You know why? The people who had posters on their walls of them as kids are now successful and can buy them. They couldn't care less about an old brass car, they have no connection to it.
There are exceptions to this obviously, and the rarest and finest examples will always do well, but as a rule....this is how collectibles work.
The old Coca Cola stuff that people remembered from their childhood....not as hot anymore because those people are going away, and the younger generation feels no connection to a 1950 Coke cooler.
I think vintage Rolex will always have value, but to think the Daytona's and Subs of the 60's and 70's will continue as the hottest Rolex collectibles forever just doesn't seem logical.

great post and ive been pounding the table on this for a while. follow the demographics. add to this fact that the under 35 crowd, in general, dont wear watches and the great Rolex Sport Boom of the past 5-10 years may be reaching a peak. i AM under 35 and would love if this were true bc there is no way im paying $50k for a 6263, my grail. so perhaps im talking my book but we have seen this movie before.

[roh123]

To be honest I'm seeing lots of <30 collectors buying 1960- and 1970's vintage so I can't agree with the idea of people wanting what they grew up with. Personally I am myself much more interested in things that is quite a bit older than myself. Later stuff is just too generic and uninteresting.

I think the main reason for many new collectors today getting 1980's watches is the fact that it is still reasonable cheap. I see a bigger risk that 5 digit references will decrease in value than good condition vintage sport. The early 5 digit sapphire sports are just old new watches rather than vintage. Unless new watches change a lot I don't see this changing. A 16610 is just the same as a 116610. Some like the chunky super case and som prefer the slim older case. Other than that the watches look pretty much the same if in similar condition.

[motoikkyu]

I tend to agree with roh123 and would add that tastes can change even for some collectors. I've been into vintage since the, well, entirely too long. There are things that excite me today that did not move me decades ago. There are things that I would "forgive" in an example now that were dealbreakers years ago. We change, sometimes we grow, sometimes we mature, sometimes we just change.

[Gina Marie]

Originally Posted by Sublovin

Here's my overall perspective. I will tie it to another interest of mine...cars
Bubble backs were all the rage back when people wanted old brass cars...they romanticized them in their minds. The people who were in a position to buy them years later, remembered them from their youth.
Vintage Rolex from the 60's and 70's are much the same. The people driving the market are mostly people who remember seeing the ads as kids, or their grandfather had one....now they are successful and have the means to fulfill that lifelong dream of owning them.
Cars have done the same. In the 1980's everyone wanted Brass, then it moved to 50's T-Birds and the like. By the turn of the century the 60's muscle cars really heated up.
15 years ago you could buy a 1979 Trans Am for a couple grand...nobody cared. Guess what, now they are six figure cars.
The past few years have been the older European sports cars....cars like Lamborghini Countach and Old Ferrari's. You know why? The people who had posters on their walls of them as kids are now successful and can buy them. They couldn't care less about an old brass car, they have no connection to it.
There are exceptions to this obviously, and the rarest and finest examples will always do well, but as a rule....this is how collectibles work.
The old Coca Cola stuff that people remembered from their childhood....not as hot anymore because those people are going away, and the younger generation feels no connection to a 1950 Coke cooler.
I think vintage Rolex will always have value, but to think the Daytona's and Subs of the 60's and 70's will continue as the hottest Rolex collectibles forever just doesn't seem logical.

I agree with the above. Look at the model T cars.

However, i think the driver will be how Rolex engages the youth market going forward.....they have done a pretty good job so far but let's see. I started with a brand new 16710 in 2001 from Ben Bridge. I then got a Panerai in 2006 followed by a GMTc in 2009....that is when my eyes went to vintage. How Rolex engages the current mid 20's crowd is key. It will likely be different than how they engaged us. My fear is for Heuers and Enicars and Zeniths....i just don't see the same engaged crowd or attempt to do so.

Porsches are timeless...same with Ferrari's. Even the shitty ones in the 70's and the 308s (which are shit to drive) have appeal and will continue to do so (unless cars become redundant like stamps, baseball cards, and telephones) unless there is a demographic shift away from personal car ownership i dont see that changing.

There is really not much jewelry that a guy can wear and not seem flashy......the wrist is about all we have. I ceased using my watches to tell time a few years ago...i have a cell phone for that. I like the look. I like the feel. Most GQ covers with a guy has a watch. Most Oscar ceremonies have guys with watches.......i don't see them fading just yet.

I think the biggest thing we have is size. The 36-39mm watches to me are under the gun......the youth wear larger watches. The 40mm used to be cartoonishly large....not just right. Are today's Panerai sized watches what we will want in 30 years....no idea.

Also cheap money helps with our hobby. If my line of credit was charging 8%, i could think of a few watches i would have passed on.

I look at watches like i look at art. We have walls....we have art. We have wrists....we have watches.

[exador]

When a Tudor Sub on eBay can attract a bid of $100K, I think the vintage market is a long way from peaking...

http://m.ebay.ca/itm/292060170753

[Gina Marie]

That Tudor is a grail for the Tudor guys....like a Daytona PN mixed with a big crown sub. Last one on a public market was 5 years ago. A well placed source thought it was extremely rare.....like low low triple digit numbers in existence rare...



QUOTE=exador;7469971]When a Tudor Sub on eBay can attract a bid of $100K, I think the vintage market is a long way from peaking...

http://m.ebay.ca/itm/292060170753[/QUOTE]

[Beepos]

So here's my perspective as a mid twenties year old guy-shit's just wayyy too expensive

I was lucky in that I got into watches as a teenager. I bought a bunch of old vintage then that has appreciated like crazy (though I'll forever regret not picking up a gilt gloss 5513 in 2012...).

Each of those watches I bough is now worth several times what I paid for it. I couldnt afford those watches now even If I wanted

Most people I know have 100k plus in debt. Thats just undergrad debt-if you add professional school, thats even more. People can't afford vinatge watches, even if they were intererested in watches. Lets not even talk about Rolex-the other brands have skyrocketed too!

An Enicar sherpagraph, a watch I bought in 2012 for $850, goes for abouve 7-8k now. A Heuer Camaro I bought for around 1000 is now over 6k.

Just look at Rolez prices. A gilt gloss 5513 in 2010 was around 8-10 k. The same watch is now 30k!!!!

I'm one of the few people I know who likes watches, let alone vintage. Theres one dude who worked in a watch shop as a teen. But the vast vast majority are happy with a Timex or a Apple watch.

li dont think the market will collapse, but I do think it will plateau

[BeirutrulesMrBarnes]

Originally Posted by samuelhuntington

Is way off. I always laugh when people compare the wrist watch to a pocket watch. Does anyone really think the wrist watch will fall out of favor like the pocket watch? I have no clue if vintage watches will hold their current value in the future but wrist watches will be popular for a long while and therefore vintage will have its place. Will the future generations just be content with their phone or smart watch to tell the time? Don't think so. Men have limited options for jewelry and most are only comfortable with a watch.

I could be wrong but like others have said in this thread, the supply of vintage watches is fixed and I feel the market will be solid for some time to come.

I agree. It is a bit like saying women's rings will go out of fashion in the future, when in fact they just take different form, style, etc. There will always be a market (albeit a smaller one) for vintage jewelry and watches. Precious metals will always be valued as well as finely crafted items that people still use. But in economics scarcity is key, Im sure there are some astronomically priced pocket watches - just visit the PP museum in Geneva