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Old 16 May 2017, 02:18 AM   #31
PJ S
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Six months later…

http://www.watchpro.com/breaking-new...it-plunges-46/
http://www.ablogtowatch.com/richemon...year-analysis/
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Old 16 May 2017, 02:37 AM   #32
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Well, the US mortgage market is just about to go BOOM with interest rates rising to 5-6%, which will affect the overall economy. The era of cheap/free money is over, which will severely impact the high end watch market as well.
It may and it may be just a blip. As one that remembers 18% interest rates and also at one point "re-fied" down to 7% and was thrilled, 5-6% doesn't seem like the end of days. Tales of coming apocalypses have seldom panned out. However, we should pay attention and protect ourselves as we can. Certainly, there are coming crisis', boom times and just tooling along times ahead. I'm very sorry to see all of these people losing their jobs. Who knows? With this much talent suddenly available I would think it would manifest itself somehow before long. I hope so.
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Old 16 May 2017, 04:03 AM   #33
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Just reread the thread, funny I guessed right on Roger's tryptique. The party is over, not just for Richemont, when you see AP lowered by 10k the price of the 44 CE, PP reducing production, that is very clear... I am quite happy that all the watches I have are not watches which will fall on second hand market, except the 5167R, but even that one should not loose a lot from what I paid, which wasn't retail, as all of my watches. The Voutilainen is another story, not sure how these very niche ultra high end independents will react to the crisis, but I think the clients for these niche brands will still be interested in getting special watches... the market has enjoyed a decade of incredible growth, and most watches were priced way too high, production went to insane levels, Panerai went from around 10k per year in 2000 to 100k now, that's nuts. The party had to stop one day...
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Old 16 May 2017, 04:58 AM   #34
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Just reread the thread, funny I guessed right on Roger's tryptique. The party is over, not just for Richemont, when you see AP lowered by 10k the price of the 44 CE, PP reducing production, that is very clear... I am quite happy that all the watches I have are not watches which will fall on second hand market, except the 5167R, but even that one should not loose a lot from what I paid, which wasn't retail, as all of my watches. The Voutilainen is another story, not sure how these very niche ultra high end independents will react to the crisis, but I think the clients for these niche brands will still be interested in getting special watches... the market has enjoyed a decade of incredible growth, and most watches were priced way too high, production went to insane levels, Panerai went from around 10k per year in 2000 to 100k now, that's nuts. The party had to stop one day...


I don't view any watches as a safe store of value. Especially ones A) not called Rolex and B) over 10k usd

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Old 16 May 2017, 05:05 AM   #35
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This @#$##% crash blew my internship oppertunity at lange... and it's probably not going to be just that
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Rolex uses rare elves to polish the platinum. They have a union deal and make like $90 per hour and get time and half on weekends.
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Old 16 May 2017, 05:33 AM   #36
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I don't view any watches as a safe store of value. Especially ones A) not called Rolex and B) over 10k usd

Tom you have to admit that a few, very few watches, are even better value than Rolex watches, not sure the over retail grey prices will hold on 5711-12 and others but now it is the case. And even if some Rolex fetch big prices on second hand, you have to wait what, 40 years? While some Patek watches gain value the moment you walk out the door, 5811P, 5131 and 5711 being the most obvious. I buy the watches I like and wear them, but if at the same time they gain value I am quite happy, but it isn't a dominating factor, if it was I wouldn't have gotten the 5167R or ordered a Voutilainen, as the first one won't gai , and no telling what the second one will be worth in 10-20 years, but really don't care.
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Old 16 May 2017, 05:35 AM   #37
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This @#$##% crash blew my internship oppertunity at lange... and it's probably not going to be just that
Man I am so sorry buddy, hate that a passionate person gets problems pursuing his dream, I really hope it will be ok and that you will have good opportunities as you deserve it
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Old 16 May 2017, 05:38 AM   #38
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Man I am so sorry buddy, hate that a passionate person gets problems pursuing his dream, I really hope it will be ok and that you will have good opportunities as you deserve it
Thanks Arnaud.

It's not the end of the world of course, but it certainly doesn't make things easier.
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Old 16 May 2017, 05:41 AM   #39
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This @#$##% crash blew my internship oppertunity at lange... and it's probably not going to be just that
Sorry to hear Bas. Short term setback and you'll have something soon I have a feeling
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Old 16 May 2017, 05:51 AM   #40
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Sorry to hear Bas. Short term setback and you'll have something soon I have a feeling
Thanks Paul, I hope that's true
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Old 16 May 2017, 11:46 AM   #41
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I don't view any watches as a safe store of value. Especially ones A) not called Rolex and B) over 10k usd

Agree but I have lost money on a 116655, 168622 and 16528 but made on FPJ CB, 5711, 5167 and 5205R. I still think watches are lousy investments...

@Arnaud. I have same bad news. I think the Voutilainen will lose 20% easy and that's for a simple Vingt 8 without heavily bespoke design which could limit the field even further.

As for Richmont....a 5% drop in share price on those profits actually show that investors believe this is a glitch or it would have fallen further. I think it may even have clawed back some gains so as a company no need to turn off the lights yet!
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Old 16 May 2017, 05:41 PM   #42
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Agree but I have lost money on a 116655, 168622 and 16528 but made on FPJ CB, 5711, 5167 and 5205R. I still think watches are lousy investments...

@Arnaud. I have same bad news. I think the Voutilainen will lose 20% easy and that's for a simple Vingt 8 without heavily bespoke design which could limit the field even further.

As for Richmont....a 5% drop in share price on those profits actually show that investors believe this is a glitch or it would have fallen further. I think it may even have clawed back some gains so as a company no need to turn off the lights yet!
I agree on all points, and of course a Voutilainen with polarising case back engraving would be much harder to sell, and would sell for cheaper than more neutral designs, well aware of that, this is one watch I know I can't flip, and except for a major economic catastrophe, or war, there is no reason why I should sell it
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Old 16 May 2017, 10:12 PM   #43
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I know this thread is about Richemont but with the overall drop in demand it's mindboggling to me that someone like AP announces a 3% price increase. https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=537676
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Old 16 May 2017, 10:48 PM   #44
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Richemont – last one out turn off the lights!

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This @#$##% crash blew my internship oppertunity at lange... and it's probably not going to be just that


Sorry Bas. Sucks. I am sure you will find an even bigger and better opportunity.


As far as US interest rates jumping up to 5-6%. I agree rates will creep up. But remember this. Who is the single largest borrower in the US?? Meaning who has the most debt??

Who controls the interest rates??

As long as the US government is trillions in debt the smallest of upward ticks in the rates make a huge difference to the interest that must be paid/added to the debt.

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Old 19 May 2017, 12:05 PM   #45
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I know this thread is about Richemont but with the overall drop in demand it's mindboggling to me that someone like AP announces a 3% price increase. https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=537676
Some are less, 44 ce for one
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