The Rolex Forums   The Rolex Watch

ROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEX


Go Back   Rolex Forums - Rolex Watch Forum > General Topics > Open Discussion Forum

Closed Thread
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 2 September 2014, 09:57 AM   #61
jhilly8982
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: chicago
Posts: 334
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2Redbulls View Post
I scalp on a daily basis and have been focused on 30 Year bonds (/ZB). Aways shorting...

Unless the volume comes back into the derivatives markets in the next couple of weeks, then I would be very nervous to stay long. We're at record highs with almost record low volume. Liquidity has gone down....something is up.
I trade 30 yr options, the coming months will prove to be interesting. Low rates cannot go on forever, it will have severe long term consequences like Japan's lost decade(s)

Historically, or better example, 2002-2006 in a rate change environment, specifically rising, the 2yr and 5yr yields converge and move closer to the 10yr. The 30 year remains unscathed as long term adjustments will be priced in.

So I am guessing the down move will be gradually priced in, should provide for some good scalping. Just a guess. Also consider the biggest one day move in 10yr was 5 points and 7 points in 30yr. (1st QE)
and that was uncharted territory as far as policy was concerned.

As for the expected rate hike of .25% in 2015, not knowing what the DVO1 of the 30yr is specifically, (guessing $158ish last time I checked) at .25% rate hike would lower the bonds close to 5 points. So look for that to gradually come.
jhilly8982 is offline  
Old 3 September 2014, 02:56 AM   #62
azguy
Banned
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Real Name: -------
Location: -------
Watch: ---------
Posts: 12,609
GoPro up another $3 today (6%), it's up $10 a share since I gave it to you guys last week...
Attached Images
File Type: jpg 20140902_095358_resized.jpg (103.5 KB, 402 views)
azguy is offline  
Old 3 September 2014, 03:06 AM   #63
azguy
Banned
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Real Name: -------
Location: -------
Watch: ---------
Posts: 12,609
Drone portfolio today

20140902_095816_resized.jpg
azguy is offline  
Old 3 September 2014, 04:25 AM   #64
wantonebad
2024 Pledge Member
 
wantonebad's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: USA
Watch: 126600, 116500LN
Posts: 12,829
I would have made $1,136... if I had listened to you John
__________________
"I'm kind of a big deal...
on a fairly irrelevant social media site
that falsely inflates my fragile ego"
wantonebad is offline  
Old 3 September 2014, 04:17 PM   #65
lamscott
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: California
Posts: 59
You think Gopro is going to keep going up? Looks like it's at its peak.
lamscott is offline  
Old 3 September 2014, 04:51 PM   #66
Passionata
"TRF" Member
 
Passionata's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: N/A
Watch: the girls
Posts: 7,095
Hi ,what s the general consensus on tsla?on all time high but still cld be interesting?
__________________
Best
George

"Also remember that feet don't get fat and a watch will always speak volumes." Robert Johnston
---------------------
*new*https://youtu.be/EljAF-uddhE *new *

http://youtu.be/ZmpLoO1Q8eQ
IG @passionata1
Passionata is offline  
Old 3 September 2014, 11:10 PM   #67
azguy
Banned
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Real Name: -------
Location: -------
Watch: ---------
Posts: 12,609
Quote:
Originally Posted by Passionata View Post
Hi ,what s the general consensus on tsla?on all time high but still cld be interesting?
There's a lot of momentum behind the stock, recent upgrades and new price target of $400 seems to have the legs to push it at least 10-20% higher by years end...
azguy is offline  
Old 4 September 2014, 12:34 AM   #68
lamscott
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: California
Posts: 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by azguy View Post
Drone portfolio today

Attachment 530164
GOpro is up again this morning.

I haven't jumped in yet but nice job on the call.
lamscott is offline  
Old 4 September 2014, 03:05 AM   #69
Passionata
"TRF" Member
 
Passionata's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: N/A
Watch: the girls
Posts: 7,095
Quote:
Originally Posted by azguy View Post
There's a lot of momentum behind the stock, recent upgrades and new price target of $400 seems to have the legs to push it at least 10-20% higher by years end...

Meanin strong Buy
__________________
Best
George

"Also remember that feet don't get fat and a watch will always speak volumes." Robert Johnston
---------------------
*new*https://youtu.be/EljAF-uddhE *new *

http://youtu.be/ZmpLoO1Q8eQ
IG @passionata1
Passionata is offline  
Old 4 September 2014, 03:12 AM   #70
diver2012
"TRF" Member
 
diver2012's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: N/A
Watch: N/A
Posts: 1,360
You'd have to be mad to buy Tesla at these levels!

Half the market cap of Ford...more than Tesco...
diver2012 is offline  
Old 5 September 2014, 02:54 AM   #71
lamscott
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: California
Posts: 59
biotech having a bad day today.
lamscott is offline  
Old 5 September 2014, 07:13 AM   #72
Rb10chris
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2014
Real Name: Chris
Location: Socal
Posts: 122
Quote:
Originally Posted by azguy View Post
GoPro up another $3 today (6%), it's up $10 a share since I gave it to you guys last week...
Where do you usually post your tips?
Rb10chris is offline  
Old 5 September 2014, 10:28 AM   #73
azguy
Banned
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Real Name: -------
Location: -------
Watch: ---------
Posts: 12,609
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rb10chris View Post
Where do you usually post your tips?
here
azguy is offline  
Old 5 September 2014, 10:37 AM   #74
azguy
Banned
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Real Name: -------
Location: -------
Watch: ---------
Posts: 12,609
I'd seriously by Apple here, rumors on the demand for iPhone 6 and the much anticpated wearable are really bullish. From an industry website:

In the second quarter, Apple committed a near-record $21 billion to third-party manufacturers for components and equipment as they presumably geared up for a string of new product announcements this fall.

Those commitments, as Apple has regularly laid out in its quarterly filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, are pre-payments for outsourced manufacturing and the components those companies use to assemble products. As of the end of June, Apple had $15.4 billion in such commitments.

Also off the balance sheet was an additional $5.6 billion in obligations, mostly for acquiring manufacturing and tooling equipment put in place by Apple's component makers and product assemblers.

The $21 billion total, then, is an indication of Apple's own build forecasts for the coming quarters, and thus its expectations for sales. The $21 billion is 46% higher than the same period the year before, a quarter prior to the launch of the iPhone 5S and 5C. The $15.4 billion in manufacturing/component commitments is 18.5% higher than that line in the second quarter of 2013
.
azguy is offline  
Old 6 September 2014, 08:02 AM   #75
azguy
Banned
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Real Name: -------
Location: -------
Watch: ---------
Posts: 12,609
Happy Friday

20140905_145322_resized.jpg
azguy is offline  
Old 9 September 2014, 06:03 AM   #76
tfly212
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Real Name: Terry
Location: New York City
Watch: Daytona or BLNR
Posts: 491
Another strong day for the drone portfolio...I think I owe you a few beers.
tfly212 is offline  
Old 9 September 2014, 08:21 AM   #77
azguy
Banned
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Real Name: -------
Location: -------
Watch: ---------
Posts: 12,609
Ya think

20140908_151847_resized.jpg
azguy is offline  
Old 9 September 2014, 08:24 AM   #78
azguy
Banned
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Real Name: -------
Location: -------
Watch: ---------
Posts: 12,609
Why I love the drone play, people can make themselves or the things they love the star of a home movie...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uW9r4QMqk5g

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OPQNyGTPaWY
azguy is offline  
Old 9 September 2014, 10:55 AM   #79
tfly212
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Real Name: Terry
Location: New York City
Watch: Daytona or BLNR
Posts: 491
Plus they need to be replaced frequently when nature steps in -

http://www.click2houston.com/news/an...drone/27867716

Beers on me if you are ever out in NYC...least I can do for the look on these.
tfly212 is offline  
Old 10 September 2014, 12:30 AM   #80
RockinIt
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Real Name: Mr. Anderson
Location: The Dairy State
Watch: DDII
Posts: 194
Any one share my opinion on Alibaba (BABA) is going to take of after IPO?
RockinIt is offline  
Old 10 September 2014, 02:57 AM   #81
tfly212
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Real Name: Terry
Location: New York City
Watch: Daytona or BLNR
Posts: 491
Quote:
Originally Posted by RockinIt View Post
Any one share my opinion on Alibaba (BABA) is going to take of after IPO?
I agree that it will pop on day one (assuming the exchange doesn't blow it...my guess is there will be a long weekend of testing ahead of that) but not as sure where it goes from there. If you can get some IPO shares I would jump on it though.
tfly212 is offline  
Old 10 September 2014, 02:39 PM   #82
Jbranda
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2014
Location: NJ
Posts: 160
Quote:
Originally Posted by locutus49 View Post
I recommend Seeking Alpha website, which is specific to serious investors. There are a million ways to invest and no one way is right for everyone.
The writers on seeking alpha are paid and usually biased reviews of stocks because they are shareholders
Jbranda is offline  
Old 10 September 2014, 03:50 PM   #83
adamlea
"TRF" Member
 
adamlea's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: Great Plains
Watch: Exp II 216570 Blk
Posts: 1,190
Speaking of Alibaba ...

As a general rule, I don't do Chinese stocks. If the Chinese ever embrace a free market economy, then I might change my mind.

Maybe it's just me, but does it strike anyone else as completely paradoxical that Alibaba is an internet marketing enterprise based in a country that restricts access to the internet and actively censors internet content?

The only ones who'll make money on Alibaba are the party members that currently hold the stock and the investors who buy in the night before the IPO.
adamlea is offline  
Old 10 September 2014, 04:14 PM   #84
gmh1013
Banned
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Real Name: greg
Location: Tempe AZ
Watch: GMT
Posts: 5,703
Quote:
Originally Posted by lamscott View Post
I didn't see a thread of this kind. I assume most of us dabble in the stock market and thought this would be a nice conversation thread.I thought it would be kind of neat to start a thread that would get all the investors together and share stock ideas.

I'm vested heavily in BAC right now.
Wow me too! I picked up 5k shares back in late 2011 and rolled the dice....sold most of it off except for 100 shares back in July. I was worried that I may have made a bad gamble but I got lucky. When did you buy?
gmh1013 is offline  
Old 10 September 2014, 04:16 PM   #85
gmh1013
Banned
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Real Name: greg
Location: Tempe AZ
Watch: GMT
Posts: 5,703
Quote:
Originally Posted by locutus49 View Post
Everyone is a genius in a bull market.
LMAO how true!
gmh1013 is offline  
Old 10 September 2014, 04:29 PM   #86
gmh1013
Banned
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Real Name: greg
Location: Tempe AZ
Watch: GMT
Posts: 5,703
Quote:
Originally Posted by srvrf View Post
I think this is a tough subject. While I think it is reasonable to assume that people here have generally done well with their investments, I'm not sure it translates into sound investment advice. An analogy is just because I'm pretty slim and fit at 5'10" and 160lbs doesn't mean I should be giving out diet advice to people. My decisions and habits may have very little to do with it.

My wife and I are self-managed and think we have a reasonable strategy with a mix of stocks in our 401k's, a mixture of index funds in our brokerage account and 529s, as well as cash. Gains have been nice and fairly stable over the years and we rebalance each year or so by purchasing what we feel we are deficient in, not by selling and then buying.

But that being said, a lot of our portfolio gains I think have come down to luck. I thought I was throwing away money by buying Apple stock in 2002 but I grew up loving the Apple II and even the Newton (anyone remember that?). How the Hell was I supposed to know that they had an iPhone up their sleeve? Why didn't I invest more?

But in the end, I am an ophthalmologist who can't follow the market more than once or twice a day. To me PE means pulmonary embolism, not price to earnings. So I love investments with long-term steady growth, preferably with a dividend, because I'm about 20-25 years away from needing any of that money (hopefully). So I've never been one to try too hard to buy the hot company or fund, but rather the stock/fund that I can see with potential for growth over the long haul. So I'm a big fan of Vanguard Index Admiral Share mutual funds.
I made a killing in real estate back in 2006 selling Condo's in North Scottsdale that I had bought in 2000 -2002 and retired at 48.... but I just got lucky and it does make me a real estate genius and would never give advice on buying up units ....because it probably wont work a second time around. Same with stocks.....my wife bought up WFC when she worked and I was buying up IBM when i worked and we did well very off both stocks but its hard to lose with IBM and Wells Fargo.
gmh1013 is offline  
Old 11 September 2014, 02:40 AM   #87
tfly212
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Real Name: Terry
Location: New York City
Watch: Daytona or BLNR
Posts: 491
Some interesting history on AAPL and product launches from Piper Jaffray...the iterative changes generally meant a drop between event and launch...the more revolutionary changes resulted in decent runs.

tfly212 is offline  
Old 11 September 2014, 12:27 PM   #88
lamscott
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: California
Posts: 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by tfly212 View Post
Some interesting history on AAPL and product launches from Piper Jaffray...the iterative changes generally meant a drop between event and launch...the more revolutionary changes resulted in decent runs.

This is true, apple always goes down and slowly rises again.
lamscott is offline  
Old 11 September 2014, 12:30 PM   #89
lamscott
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: California
Posts: 59
I've done a lot of business in China.

I would never touch a Chinese stock. The shady practices are astounding.
lamscott is offline  
Old 11 September 2014, 12:44 PM   #90
2Redbulls
"TRF" Member
 
2Redbulls's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Real Name: Tom
Location: Morgan Hill, CA
Watch: I give up..
Posts: 719
Quote:
Originally Posted by lamscott View Post
This is true, apple always goes down and slowly rises again.
I haven't paid too much attention to aapl today but I don't think Piper got it right this time.

Volatility increased in aapl prior to the launch and I sold puts at about a 63% IV rank and bought them back the same day for a decent profit after the event. Unfortunately these moments don't come around too often.

and I've had a shitty month, so I'm not trying to pretend I'm a great trader. Certainly wouldn't be able to tell based on my P&L.
2Redbulls is offline  
Closed Thread


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Takuya Watches

Bobs Watches

Asset Appeal

My Watch LLC

OCWatches

DavidSW Watches

Coronet


*Banners Of The Month*
This space is provided to horological resources.





Copyright ©2004-2024, The Rolex Forums. All Rights Reserved.

ROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEX

Rolex is a registered trademark of ROLEX USA. The Rolex Forums is not affiliated with ROLEX USA in any way.