Are we in a 5711 "bubble"?

[Vivalas]

Originally Posted by Sam Philip

5711 blue dial is readily available at grey dealers in the UK with a huge premium. I wonder how many people buy this watch only to flip it for a profit.

I wonder if that ruins a relationship with the AD? Not sure how they would find out but if they did, it may mean other watches aren't forthcoming.

They are just under 30k (£'s) grey and 19k RRP. I guess even if you get offered in between that it's a fantastic profit.

[sechsgang]

Originally Posted by AK797

I think AP is benefitting from this altho 202 prices are also on the rise. Lange could be grabbing some market share here if they came up with a sports model in similar price range.

This is THE time for lange to hit this market with an SS product to compete with the nautilus for sure.

[mobster600]

This is simply an issue of supply. Patek will stick to the annual production of their models and thats what makes them strong both when times are good and bad. Its their "weakness" when we demand more and their cost strength when are not buying Pateks.

Just because the 5711 is selling at crazy high prices doesn't mean Patek will hire more employees to make more.

I think "bubble" is too broad of a term for this example. Its just a high selling model right now, prices will come down eventually

[Sam Philip]

Originally Posted by Vivalas

I wonder if that ruins a relationship with the AD? Not sure how they would find out but if they did, it may mean other watches aren't forthcoming.

They are just under 30k (£'s) grey and 19k RRP. I guess even if you get offered in between that it's a fantastic profit.

Patek will know once the new owner registered the watch with them through the website. It is highly unlikely for some one to get application pieces if Patek feels that person is flipping it for a profit.

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by sechsgang

This is THE time for lange to hit this market with an SS product to compete with the nautilus for sure.

I have been saying this for years...well at least 3

I would kill for a Lange sports watch with at least 100m wr. I could settle for PM but SS would be preferred.

[thomaspp]

Originally Posted by GB-man

I have been saying this for years...well at least 3



I would kill for a Lange sports watch with at least 100m wr. I could settle for PM but SS would be preferred.

Seriously doubt Lange will make a steel sports watch... ever


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[dmash]

Originally Posted by thomaspp

Seriously doubt Lange will make a steel sports watch... ever


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x2, I wish though.


and Vacheron leaves a bit to be desired in their sports range, so it seems all you can choose from is AP & PP when going the sports route

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by thomaspp

Seriously doubt Lange will make a steel sports watch... ever


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Never say never thomas!

My biggest concern is they would release one that's forced by market conditions and not a desire to enter the space.

They could make an incredible sports watch.

[thomaspp]

Originally Posted by GB-man

Never say never thomas!

My biggest concern is they would release one that's forced by market conditions and not a desire to enter the space.

They could make an incredible sports watch.

I was at a dinner with Wilhelm Schmid (president of Lange) where this exact topic came up and he said "never".... but maybe you are right and they will bend to the profit motive and market pressures... but again I'd be shocked.

[thomaspp]

Originally Posted by dmash

x2, I wish though.


and Vacheron leaves a bit to be desired in their sports range, so it seems all you can choose from is AP & PP when going the sports route

And then there is vintage rolex

Vacheron I agree... but nice profile pic you have.

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by thomaspp

I was at a dinner with Wilhelm Schmid (president of Lange) where this exact topic came up and he said "never".... but maybe you are right and they will bend to the profit motive and market pressures... but again I'd be shocked.

[AK797]

Originally Posted by dmash

x2, I wish though.


and Vacheron leaves a bit to be desired in their sports range, so it seems all you can choose from is AP & PP when going the sports route

Yes, very unlikely, and even impossible now as Thomas revealed, but VC and Breguet aren't infiltrating these two here so there is a gap emerging for a Lange or even an FPJ or a new revolutionary Zenith.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by thomaspp

And then there is vintage rolex

Vacheron I agree... but nice profile pic you have.

VC Patrimony is ahead of PP Calatrava (in my opinion) aesthetically. However PP Aquanaut & Nautilus absolutely destroy VC Overseas (again, my opinion).

Oh please ALS, answer our dreams.

[behardt]

After 30+ years of watching this crazy business, I have an opinion (take it for what it's worth). This 5711 market will likely collapse quickly once a tipping point is reached. And, the tipping point is usually when the price is at it's most exaggerated high. Reasons for that:

1. A lot of people bought the "watch other people love" and will dump them for the next shiny overly desired object at some point (racing to do it while the price is still high).

2. The number in demand is GROSSLY over estimated. You can't add up the names on lists. As we all know, many people are on MANY lists for multiple reasons (maybe in this order):
a. I really want one bad because everyone wants one
b. I'm a grey marketer and want to make a lot of money
c. I'm a normal guy that wants to make a lot of money selling a 5711 to someone
d. I'm a normal guy that wants to make a lot of money selling a 5711 to grey marketers
e. I'm a watch guy that never noticed the 5711 until everyone wanted one, but I genuinely love the piece for long term keeper
f. I'm a watch guy that wants one, but by the time one is available, I'm over it or have spent my money somewhere else (or I choke just prior to spending $25K+ on a stainless steel watch and decide to buy 3 Rolexes instead)


At the end of the day, this isn't a new watch. It had a niche market for years and was readily available. A little hype comes in, and with the efficiency of the Internet, scarcity quickly ensues based on "I want what everyone else wants as long as I can't get it or everyone else can't get it". I bet most people purchasing a 5711 right now are first time buyers and this will probably be the only PP they ever purchase. There are of course exceptions to all of this, just wanted to present a different viewpoint from someone who makes a living tracking and predicting changes.

NET: I think we're close to, or have already reached that tipping point. That being said, I've been wrong before...

[The B]

Originally Posted by behardt

After 30+ years of watching this crazy business, I have an opinion (take it for what it's worth). This 5711 market will likely collapse quickly once a tipping point is reached. And, the tipping point is usually when the price is at it's most exaggerated high. Reasons for that:

1. A lot of people bought the "watch other people love" and will dump them for the next shiny overly desired object at some point (racing to do it while the price is still high).

2. The number in demand is GROSSLY over estimated. You can't add up the names on lists. As we all know, many people are on MANY lists for multiple reasons (maybe in this order):
a. I really want one bad because everyone wants one
b. I'm a grey marketer and want to make a lot of money
c. I'm a normal guy that wants to make a lot of money selling a 5711 to someone
d. I'm a normal guy that wants to make a lot of money selling a 5711 to grey marketers
e. I'm a watch guy that never noticed the 5711 until everyone wanted one, but I genuinely love the piece for long term keeper
f. I'm a watch guy that wants one, but by the time one is available, I'm over it or have spent my money somewhere else (or I choke just prior to spending $25K+ on a stainless steel watch and decide to buy 3 Rolexes instead)


At the end of the day, this isn't a new watch. It had a niche market for years and was readily available. A little hype comes in, and with the efficiency of the Internet, scarcity quickly ensues based on "I want what everyone else wants as long as I can't get it or everyone else can't get it". I bet most people purchasing a 5711 right now are first time buyers and this will probably be the only PP they ever purchase. There are of course exceptions to all of this, just wanted to present a different viewpoint from someone who makes a living tracking and predicting changes.

NET: I think we're close to, or have already reached that tipping point. That being said, I've been wrong before...

Agreed.

[MJaber]

Originally Posted by behardt

After 30+ years of watching this crazy business, I have an opinion (take it for what it's worth). This 5711 market will likely collapse quickly once a tipping point is reached. And, the tipping point is usually when the price is at it's most exaggerated high. Reasons for that:

1. A lot of people bought the "watch other people love" and will dump them for the next shiny overly desired object at some point (racing to do it while the price is still high).

2. The number in demand is GROSSLY over estimated. You can't add up the names on lists. As we all know, many people are on MANY lists for multiple reasons (maybe in this order):
a. I really want one bad because everyone wants one
b. I'm a grey marketer and want to make a lot of money
c. I'm a normal guy that wants to make a lot of money selling a 5711 to someone
d. I'm a normal guy that wants to make a lot of money selling a 5711 to grey marketers
e. I'm a watch guy that never noticed the 5711 until everyone wanted one, but I genuinely love the piece for long term keeper
f. I'm a watch guy that wants one, but by the time one is available, I'm over it or have spent my money somewhere else (or I choke just prior to spending $25K+ on a stainless steel watch and decide to buy 3 Rolexes instead)


At the end of the day, this isn't a new watch. It had a niche market for years and was readily available. A little hype comes in, and with the efficiency of the Internet, scarcity quickly ensues based on "I want what everyone else wants as long as I can't get it or everyone else can't get it". I bet most people purchasing a 5711 right now are first time buyers and this will probably be the only PP they ever purchase. There are of course exceptions to all of this, just wanted to present a different viewpoint from someone who makes a living tracking and predicting changes.

NET: I think we're close to, or have already reached that tipping point. That being said, I've been wrong before...

Hear Hear!

[AutoBay]

Originally Posted by behardt

After 30+ years of watching this crazy business, I have an opinion (take it for what it's worth). This 5711 market will likely collapse quickly once a tipping point is reached. And, the tipping point is usually when the price is at it's most exaggerated high. Reasons for that:



1. A lot of people bought the "watch other people love" and will dump them for the next shiny overly desired object at some point (racing to do it while the price is still high).



2. The number in demand is GROSSLY over estimated. You can't add up the names on lists. As we all know, many people are on MANY lists for multiple reasons (maybe in this order):

a. I really want one bad because everyone wants one

b. I'm a grey marketer and want to make a lot of money

c. I'm a normal guy that wants to make a lot of money selling a 5711 to someone

d. I'm a normal guy that wants to make a lot of money selling a 5711 to grey marketers

e. I'm a watch guy that never noticed the 5711 until everyone wanted one, but I genuinely love the piece for long term keeper

f. I'm a watch guy that wants one, but by the time one is available, I'm over it or have spent my money somewhere else (or I choke just prior to spending $25K+ on a stainless steel watch and decide to buy 3 Rolexes instead)





At the end of the day, this isn't a new watch. It had a niche market for years and was readily available. A little hype comes in, and with the efficiency of the Internet, scarcity quickly ensues based on "I want what everyone else wants as long as I can't get it or everyone else can't get it". I bet most people purchasing a 5711 right now are first time buyers and this will probably be the only PP they ever purchase. There are of course exceptions to all of this, just wanted to present a different viewpoint from someone who makes a living tracking and predicting changes.



NET: I think we're close to, or have already reached that tipping point. That being said, I've been wrong before...

Fabulous. Thanks for the thoughtful reply!


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[AK797]

Originally Posted by behardt

After 30+ years of watching this crazy business, I have an opinion (take it for what it's worth). This 5711 market will likely collapse quickly once a tipping point is reached. And, the tipping point is usually when the price is at it's most exaggerated high. Reasons for that:

1. A lot of people bought the "watch other people love" and will dump them for the next shiny overly desired object at some point (racing to do it while the price is still high).

2. The number in demand is GROSSLY over estimated. You can't add up the names on lists. As we all know, many people are on MANY lists for multiple reasons (maybe in this order):
a. I really want one bad because everyone wants one
b. I'm a grey marketer and want to make a lot of money
c. I'm a normal guy that wants to make a lot of money selling a 5711 to someone
d. I'm a normal guy that wants to make a lot of money selling a 5711 to grey marketers
e. I'm a watch guy that never noticed the 5711 until everyone wanted one, but I genuinely love the piece for long term keeper
f. I'm a watch guy that wants one, but by the time one is available, I'm over it or have spent my money somewhere else (or I choke just prior to spending $25K+ on a stainless steel watch and decide to buy 3 Rolexes instead)


At the end of the day, this isn't a new watch. It had a niche market for years and was readily available. A little hype comes in, and with the efficiency of the Internet, scarcity quickly ensues based on "I want what everyone else wants as long as I can't get it or everyone else can't get it". I bet most people purchasing a 5711 right now are first time buyers and this will probably be the only PP they ever purchase. There are of course exceptions to all of this, just wanted to present a different viewpoint from someone who makes a living tracking and predicting changes.

NET: I think we're close to, or have already reached that tipping point. That being said, I've been wrong before...

This really applies more to stocks where there are lots of sellers who can drive a market. On luxury watches the demand is so strong esp when supply is restricted that prices may fall off a little from a peak but they won't collapse, just as the SS Daytona and Ceramic Daytona markets are still in full bull mode years later with no signs of a collapse in sight. The main danger to the bull market would be a direct competitor entering the market and challenging the Nautilus' near monopolistic status.

[tng11]

Originally Posted by AK797

This really applies more to stocks where there are lots of sellers who can drive a market. On luxury watches the demand is so strong esp when supply is restricted that prices may fall off a little from a peak but they won't collapse, just as the SS Daytona and Ceramic Daytona markets are still in full bull mode years later with no signs of a collapse in sight. The main danger to the bull market would be a direct competitor entering the market and challenging the Nautilus' near monopolistic status.

What about the Aquanaut and Royal Oak? Anecdotally it seems people are giving up in the 5711 in favour of these models, which has led to a corresponding uptick in prices for these models too.

I don't think PP is immune to bubbles. History has shown that - I have used the 5960P and 5980/1A as example. The 5980/1A was going for close to double MSRP after launch, and then quickly dropped below MSRP and then some. Only after a few years did it recover back to/above MSRP. People who bought to wear and hold long-term did fine, but people who bought to speculate probably lost their shirts. The 5960P did even worse - you basically can't give them away these days.

Though arguably the 5980's case had the financial crisis in between, I don't think the 5711 is immune to it, as the demand for it seems to be grossly exaggerated as behardt laid out.

[soundserious]

Applying any kind of logic to watch pricing and demand in the age of Instagram is basically doomed from the start.

These are not things that are driven by supply and demand in the traditional sense. If a web outlet that is widely followed brings attention to a manufacturer or a certain watch then the demand is instantaneous and global.

[Vipes]

Originally Posted by thomaspp

Seriously doubt Lange will make a steel sports watch... ever


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I agree. I think it will be very hard for Lange to make a popular sports watch. Lange strictly follows their DNA code and deviating from this to make a sports watch would be difficult, IMO. For example, all of their pieces have the same case and hands.