Rolex Shortage or is it..?

[SimonUK82]

Hi all,

Is this a temporary ‘Rolex Shortage’ or should we all accept it will never change and this is the norm?

Currently on a waiting list for a Sub Date, however I am increasing tempted by a premium on the gray market in 2019 (holding out for a possible Sub update).

Simon.

[Jsimon]

Norm until recession. Wait it out, shouldn’t be more than 6 months for that piece.

[SimonUK82]

Originally Posted by Jsimon

Norm until recession. Wait it out, shouldn’t be more than 6 months for that piece.

Thanks for the reply. I will aim for 6 months and see what happens. Excited for Bazel 2019.

[calatravato]

I think it’s basic economics. Rolex sets prices lower than the equilibrium price, or a point where demand is greater than what they are willing/able to supply. This creates a deadweight loss to them that they are willing to incur and probably shrug off as advertising costs.

The grey market is prospering because they price at equilibrium and take in that deadweight loss.

In short, there is a shortage at MSRP, but not at grey market prices. How long will this last? IMHO, as long as Rolex wants to or as long as they are happy eating that loss.

[fleabag]

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[SimonUK82]

[JacksonStone]

Well, let's see...what was the consensus in the other 20 threads this week about this topic?

[Shamorai]

There is no shortage.
It’s just that we now buy watches through resellers, not ADs.

[904VT]

Production/distribution will pick up just about the time the Swiss Franc is less attractive to its like basket. Is that recession driven, maybe or maybe not, but at least demand will slow with headwinds. I imagine a good bit of demand has already slowed with Chinese markets slowing. The Chinese buyers globally have caused an increase in SS demand. The reason being changes to the limits in Chinese business gifting policies. Customary gifts are no longer TT or PM, but SS to meet newer limits. Coupled with decently solid global GDP growth and no surprise shortages in certain markets. Soon enough things will be closer to 5 years ago

[shapa]

Do not pay over MSRP. Do not fall into that trap. You will regret it once they are in abundance at the AD- that will happen soon. Also, they should be out with the new movement soon. Why the heck would you pay a premium now?

[SimonUK82]

Originally Posted by shapa

Do not pay over MSRP. Do not fall into that trap. You will regret it once they are in abundance at the AD- that will happen soon. Also, they should be out with the new movement soon. Why the heck would you pay a premium now?

Very fair point.

[Rodrigo082]

There is not shortage of SS models - it’s juts all going into grey dealers or folks who just want to make some extra cash

[SS Oyster]

Originally Posted by shapa

Why the heck would you pay a premium now?

People pay over MSRP because they want a watch now, not years from now. They value their time more than someone willing to wait on lists that likely will never materialize.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by JacksonStone

Well, let's see...what was the consensus in the other 20 threads this week about this topic?

Exactly

When Rolex becomes easy to get I will no longer be interested and I believe that many will not be interested either.

[Henry99]

There is a shortage definetly. But , ad’s wants to sell ss watches to their regular customer. For example my ad just found me submariner no date in 6 weeks. They vased on north london. I previously bought 2 datejusts with them. When i asked about pepsi waiting time he just laughed at me and said basicly you need to spend more with us. Thats how it works, there is ss models but they are just not displayed

[Chaching]

Wait till the Economy Crashes in a year … Rolexes for Everybody!!!

[Easy E]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Exactly

When Rolex becomes easy to get I will no longer be interested and I believe that many will not be interested either.

So you are a fan of the image, not the watch(es)?

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by Chaching

Wait till the Economy Crashes in a year … Rolexes for Everybody!!!

I agree, maybe not next year, but eventually


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[SeaAndSky]

Originally Posted by Easy E

So you are a fan of the image, not the watch(es)?

My thoughts too. Not to be a jerk, but I liked this forum better when I was lurking for years before buying and learning from a community of people who just loved the watch. I'm no fan of people who buy something to impress others. Impresses me not one bit.

[vinny84]

Even if a recession hits, I still think ADs will either hide them in their vault or Rolex may just send them less watches. Time will tell when that happens

[jeffnnj]

They are still being produced at a rapid rate. Rolex make a million watches each year many of which are sports models. That means hundreds per day if not more. They have to be going somewhere unless of course they’re holding back.


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[watchnut73]

No shortage. Just a very high demand unfortunately

[Atone]

From AD’s I’ve spoken with the consensus seems to be that Rolex has slimmed down their shipments in order to mitigate the watches being sold under MSRP on gray market. Not too long ago there were plenty of ss sports models on shelves and selling well under MSRP in secondary markets. As a consequence, it seems that Rolex sales were hurt by this. In response, they release fewer watches to AD’s and they can’t stay on the shelves. I can’t imagine how frustrating that must be for retailers tho.

[Gerardus]

Originally Posted by fleabag

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[Guinness835]

I’m so glad I didn’t wait any longer to buy my first Rolex exactly two years ago! I got my 116170LN from DSW for $1,000 under retail fully stickered with my name on the warranty card. Funny how times have changed!

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by Easy E

So you are a fan of the image, not the watch(es)?

Not at all

I believe that the brand has worked hard to position itself as a leading luxury brand.

You do not get that way by being sold everywhere for discounts.

I enjoy the watches, not the incessant whining of a few who are not at the right place at the right time to get one. Over the years there have been plenty of watches I missed buying. Instead of whining and faux outrage posts on the internet I moved on and found another watch.

[watchwatcher]

Originally Posted by shapa

You will regret it once they are in abundance at the AD- that will happen soon.

Also, they should be out with the new movement soon.

Really? Please tell us how you know these things to be true. Because if you can predict the future and know what Rolex is planning to do, I know I would like to get in on some of that action.

[Maiden]

Originally Posted by SimonUK82

Hi all,

Is this a temporary ‘Rolex Shortage’ or should we all accept it will never change and this is the norm?

Currently on a waiting list for a Sub Date, however I am increasing tempted by a premium on the gray market in 2019 (holding out for a possible Sub update).

Simon.

Are you prepared to pay the massive grey premium for a new sub if released. If not grab a sub now.

[ALF61]

Originally Posted by Chaching

Wait till the Economy Crashes in a year … Rolexes for Everybody!!!

At that point Rolexes available for everybody will be the least of my concerns, much bigger ones than any Rolex depreciating or being boughtable.

[maizerage25]

I'm curious as to why Rolex isn't raising prices. It's obvious the demand is too high at the current price point.