ROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEX
21 June 2019, 12:37 AM | #31 | |
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It may sound like a skeptic point of view, but how do any of us know that they don’t have a warehouse of new ceramic Pepsi models sitting somewhere that they will trickle out to the market at a later date? Might sound silly, but the answer is that we don’t. If you owned a company that was producing widgets which were selling for twice the suggested price the moment they left the factory, wouldn’t you consider this? There is no reason for the perceived “shortage” other than it is by design. In addition to that we see photo after photo of these things sitting in the box or safe in unworn condition. We can all speculate and have opinions, but is absolute fact that these things are not unicorns. They are out there by the thousands, and there is a tipping point....basic economics
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21 June 2019, 01:46 AM | #32 | |
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Well there are some facts here and my points not mere speculation. An individual today just posted data about the increase in demand from Asian markets. That’s real data. We also know that while Rolex does not release production numbers, COSC does tell the number of chronographs certified. So that gives us a sense that 1) demand is up, 2) production not so much. While they are not unicorns, facts are also clear that the number of gray market dealers have exposed in the past 5 years. This does pinch supply in a massive way. So the issue is indeed complex, but there are some data and facts that we have. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
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21 June 2019, 02:14 AM | #33 |
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Chester
Fair points, but here is what we have no idea of 1- how many watches have been produced, without movements being certified yet, and are sitting? We assume they producing them in an effort to keep up, but we have no idea. 2- of the most recent 500,000 SS produced and certified (just picking a number to illustrate) , we have no idea how many were actually delivered for sale. In other words, there could have been only 250,000 released into the consumer stream while another 250,000 sit waiting to be trickled out.
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21 June 2019, 04:19 AM | #34 | |
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21 June 2019, 05:44 AM | #35 |
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My guess is when Speculators cant sell their watches they bought at 2x -2.5x MSRP. Then they will move on and the contraction cycle begins. But another guess is, SS prices wont fall back to MSRP. You will see 'buyers' again coming back before it gets to MSRP.
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21 June 2019, 06:32 AM | #36 | |
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