Advice from fellow Patek Owners on a potential "package" deal

[RHIII]

Originally Posted by galtinuk

Then do you disagree that the hard to get pieces should go to the best clients?

That is basically the same thing and by doing this they are giving the buyer a way to become a better client.

And the dealer has to do this. Why? Well if they stop giving the hard to get pieces to good clients they will simply be good clients somewhere else...

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Philosophically - yes — and I am one of those clients that gets the pick of the litter and the early delivery phone calls from both my ADs - and have been the first recipient of SEVERAL hard to get references over the years.

There has been a BIG paradigm shift in the watch world and it is begging for some normalization - there’s no reason (IMHO) to disenfranchise buyers by this tactic - everyone should have an opportunity to buy the references they want. Not just me.

It’s the EXACT reason I turned down the 1st BLRO that was delivered to my AD amongst a couple of other references recently.

These package deals - aren’t making better clients for ADs — they’re just fueling the secondary market overall — so in the grand scheme of things - ADs are really just hurting themselves. If all the ADs had to rely on was their top 2% of clients — they would have to change their business model. My AD for example turns away BIG profits weekly not having inventory to sell to routine customers. The 1% or 2% OR LESS of their ‘best clients’ still get what they want — that is one of the largest misconceptions in the watch game — what defines a ‘best client’. It’s not all about $$ alone.

Some ADs - have extrapolated these trying times for true enthusiasts as a quick way to increase profits - using an unsustainable approach.

Again — just my humble opinion.

Cheers


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[galtinuk]

Part of the problem, though, is that selling to a brand new client does not necessarily increase the chance that the piece won't get flipped in the secondary market compared to a well known client. Especially if you assume a dealer has more information about current larger or at least consistent clients.

For example, they probably have a decent idea of which clients tend to hold on to watches or at least only buy things they actually want to wear or have.

In fact from the sound of it, you are exactly that client and you didn't take a hard to get watch for probably those reasons. So in this case the dealer did absolutely the right thing to offer you that piece. They, of course, had no way to know in advance if you would want it. But you passed and so perhaps they were able to go down the list to someone like you who they know will only take the piece if they want it for themselves and not to flip. That all sounds pretty reasonable to me.

I tend to agree in the sense that package deals are not great if the only reason a buyer is doing it is to monitize the value of the other watch as a discount. However, a package deal is probably one step better than offering a prized piece to a random person that walks through the front door.

Originally Posted by RHIII

Philosophically - yes — and I am one of those clients that gets the pick of the litter and the early delivery phone calls from both my ADs - and have been the first recipient of SEVERAL hard to get references over the years.

There has been a BIG paradigm shift in the watch world and it is begging for some normalization - there’s no reason (IMHO) to disenfranchise buyers by this tactic - everyone should have an opportunity to buy the references they want. Not just me.

It’s the EXACT reason I turned down the 1st BLRO that was delivered to my AD amongst a couple of other references recently.

These package deals - aren’t making better clients for ADs — they’re just fueling the secondary market overall — so in the grand scheme of things - ADs are really just hurting themselves. If all the ADs had to rely on was their top 2% of clients — they would have to change their business model. My AD for example turns away BIG profits weekly not having inventory to sell to routine customers. The 1% or 2% OR LESS of their ‘best clients’ still get what they want — that is one of the largest misconceptions in the watch game — what defines a ‘best client’. It’s not all about $$ alone.

Some ADs - have extrapolated these trying times for true enthusiasts as a quick way to increase profits - using an unsustainable approach.

Again — just my humble opinion.

Cheers


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[lord91]

Originally Posted by ~JJ

Doesn’t sound like you are really on their list either... they can get the piece, but want to play games too. Their card has been shown, find an AD with a real list that doesn’t want to roll you.

This is very true.

Originally Posted by galtinuk

Part of the problem, though, is that selling to a brand new client does not necessarily increase the chance that the piece won't get flipped in the secondary market compared to a well known client. Especially if you assume a dealer has more information about current larger or at least consistent clients.

For example, they probably have a decent idea of which clients tend to hold on to watches or at least only buy things they actually want to wear or have.

In fact from the sound of it, you are exactly that client and you didn't take a hard to get watch for probably those reasons. So in this case the dealer did absolutely the right thing to offer you that piece. They, of course, had no way to know in advance if you would want it. But you passed and so perhaps they were able to go down the list to someone like you who they know will only take the piece if they want it for themselves and not to flip. That all sounds pretty reasonable to me.

I tend to agree in the sense that package deals are not great if the only reason a buyer is doing it is to monitize the value of the other watch as a discount. However, a package deal is probably one step better than offering a prized piece to a random person that walks through the front door.

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That random person that just asks for a watch in demand, could very well be an enthusiast at his first purchase from that brand. The client buys what he likes, you can not deny him the chance.

Same thing goes in the car market, Porsche ADs (more or less, but a lot more of them) won't sell you a GT model as your first pick, offering all the bs sales excuses. Afterwards, that car would go to someone who will exploit it far less than a GTi owner.

It's all about making more money for them, everything else is just bs.

[coralfarmer84]

Originally Posted by lord91

This is very true.



That random person that just asks for a watch in demand, could very well be an enthusiast at his first purchase from that brand. The client buys what he likes, you can not deny him the chance.

Same thing goes in the car market, Porsche ADs (more or less, but a lot more of them) won't sell you a GT model as your first pick, offering all the bs sales excuses. Afterwards, that car would go to someone who will exploit it far less than a GTi owner.

It's all about making more money for them, everything else is just bs.

This exactly. I am an enthusiast just starting to get into Pateks.

I appreciate the feedback from everyone. Its nice to be the first owner and have your name on the papers but I do agree sometimes its not worth it. I'm going to attempt to focus more on a 5712R and go from there, seems to be much less of a secondary markup. Maybe the AD will come thru, maybe not.

[appa666]

If 5711r is the only model you want at the moment, I will say go grey.
For your shopping list this wont be the first hard time AD will give you.
The bundle sales will be going on forever maybe reward 1 or 2 without package sales in future?

My ad was smart enough to tell me this whole thing at beginning, so its up to me to decide which is a fair game too cut the bs.
More or less, the watch market is getting worse.
I have seen bundle sales for a 15400(not even blue dial), needless to say about Rolex.

[tonupbklyn]

this kind of shit gets me so frustrated.
for a person like myself who has been looking for an 11R (at retail) for quite a while, just a kick in the stomach hearing that these models are in fact available at list prices but at a “cost”.

[Sam Philip]

5711R is a very beautiful watch but it is not hard to obtain one from an AD. I would try a different AD

[superdog]

Originally Posted by RHIII

Philosophically - yes — and I am one of those clients that gets the pick of the litter and the early delivery phone calls from both my ADs - and have been the first recipient of SEVERAL hard to get references over the years.

There has been a BIG paradigm shift in the watch world and it is begging for some normalization - there’s no reason (IMHO) to disenfranchise buyers by this tactic - everyone should have an opportunity to buy the references they want. Not just me.

It’s the EXACT reason I turned down the 1st BLRO that was delivered to my AD amongst a couple of other references recently.

These package deals - aren’t making better clients for ADs — they’re just fueling the secondary market overall — so in the grand scheme of things - ADs are really just hurting themselves. If all the ADs had to rely on was their top 2% of clients — they would have to change their business model. My AD for example turns away BIG profits weekly not having inventory to sell to routine customers. The 1% or 2% OR LESS of their ‘best clients’ still get what they want — that is one of the largest misconceptions in the watch game — what defines a ‘best client’. It’s not all about $$ alone.

Some ADs - have extrapolated these trying times for true enthusiasts as a quick way to increase profits - using an unsustainable approach.

Again — just my humble opinion.

Cheers


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In a perfect world, everyone would have the opportunity to get what they want. Today’s watch world is far from perfect in that specific regard.

I walked through Milan yesterday and Rolex had, (to be expected) zero stock. The folks at Patek all but laughed at me when I said I wanted to browse and see what they had. There is nothing there.

Could these guys all have had stock in the back for important customers? Maybe. I mean, why sell it to me? Besides the sale, which in a perfect world is enough, there is no real reason to sell me a hard to get watch. I will never be back as a repeat customer.

In short time, I have developed a pretty nice relationship with AD local to me. He sees the value in selling to me. Already I have purchased a few straps and a watch winder. For certain, I will be back for more products as they sell a few different items and brands in this store.

You are lucky in that you get the right of refusal. But you earned that somehow. And for certain, it make sense for the AD to give you that type of treatment. Otherwise they would not do it.

For a guy like me, I’m not ever going to get a 5711 from an AD. It is just not going to happen. And personally, I am okay with that. I don’t blame the AD.

I don’t blame the manufacturer either. They are creating the mystique and the prestige through limiting supply and ensuring that not everyone will have the opportunity to buy. After all, it is human nature and if everyone that wanted one could get one, not nearly as many people would want one.

AD’s too are in business to make money. And with limited stock to sell, that is a challenge for them.

I am all for paying gray or bundling if it brings a person closer to the goal. Whatever that goal might be.

I would prefer to be the guy that can get whatever he wants at MSRP. But there is a cost to that too.

Two separate sides of a similar coin, imo.

[AK797]

Originally Posted by superdog

I walked through Milan yesterday and Rolex had, (to be expected) zero stock. The folks at Patek all but laughed at me when I said I wanted to browse and see what they had. There is nothing there.

.

Soon they will take their signs down like trendy clubs so only those in the know can even find them.

[RHIII]

Originally Posted by superdog

In a perfect world, everyone would have the opportunity to get what they want. Today’s watch world is far from perfect in that specific regard.



I walked through Milan yesterday and Rolex had, (to be expected) zero stock. The folks at Patek all but laughed at me when I said I wanted to browse and see what they had. There is nothing there.



Could these guys all have had stock in the back for important customers? Maybe. I mean, why sell it to me? Besides the sale, which in a perfect world is enough, there is no real reason to sell me a hard to get watch. I will never be back as a repeat customer.



In short time, I have developed a pretty nice relationship with AD local to me. He sees the value in selling to me. Already I have purchased a few straps and a watch winder. For certain, I will be back for more products as they sell a few different items and brands in this store.



You are lucky in that you get the right of refusal. But you earned that somehow. And for certain, it make sense for the AD to give you that type of treatment. Otherwise they would not do it.



For a guy like me, I’m not ever going to get a 5711 from an AD. It is just not going to happen. And personally, I am okay with that. I don’t blame the AD.



I don’t blame the manufacturer either. They are creating the mystique and the prestige through limiting supply and ensuring that not everyone will have the opportunity to buy. After all, it is human nature and if everyone that wanted one could get one, not nearly as many people would want one.



AD’s too are in business to make money. And with limited stock to sell, that is a challenge for them.



I am all for paying gray or bundling if it brings a person closer to the goal. Whatever that goal might be.



I would prefer to be the guy that can get whatever he wants at MSRP. But there is a cost to that too.



Two separate sides of a similar coin, imo.

It’s a difficult and somewhat sad ‘state’ for enthusiasts my friend that is for sure. It’s a tough topic to address and at the end of the day everyone has to take the path their most comfortable with. I really wish we had the answer - or the strategy, but the amalgamation the watch world has shifted to is unfortunately a very slow moving train hard pressed to change course.

I think it will shift - at some point as all things do — but we know how ‘easy’ those things are to predict....



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[1William]

I would not package but I would do two watches if I wanted them. I would also be willing to buy one watch I want and either pay for or put a significant deposit on a second one. I would need this money to be refundable and with a agreeable time line for delivery. Get it in writing.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by RHIII

It’s a difficult and somewhat sad ‘state’ for enthusiasts my friend that is for sure. It’s a tough topic to address and at the end of the day everyone has to take the path their most comfortable with. I really wish we had the answer - or the strategy, but the amalgamation the watch world has shifted to is unfortunately a very slow moving train hard pressed to change course.

I think it will shift - at some point as all things do — but we know how ‘easy’ those things are to predict....



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Agreed brother. Agreed. On all accounts.

Sure wish I could predict all this. But I suppose that would take the fun out.

[slomosen]

Doesn't it just come down to simple math? If you can flip the "unwanted" packaged watch for more of a gain than the extra you'd have to pay for grey market price of the watch you do want, I'd think you have your answer. As for what is or isn't appropriate behavior from an AD, I think it's a moot point. We just saw a 3-month old Tiffany 5711 being sold at auction yesterday. Something that wasn't even supposed to come to market... Do these things happen? Sure. No point in worrying about whether or not it's acceptable behavior. Ultimately we're still talking about ultra-luxury goods from people who run businesses. The morals/ethics of what's appropriate in this arena is blurry to begin with.

I completely agree with Seth in that your right of first refusal should be seen as an advantage and not a reason to "find another AD."

[slomosen]

Originally Posted by superdog

In a perfect world, everyone would have the opportunity to get what they want. Today’s watch world is far from perfect in that specific regard.

I walked through Milan yesterday and Rolex had, (to be expected) zero stock. The folks at Patek all but laughed at me when I said I wanted to browse and see what they had. There is nothing there.

Could these guys all have had stock in the back for important customers? Maybe. I mean, why sell it to me? Besides the sale, which in a perfect world is enough, there is no real reason to sell me a hard to get watch. I will never be back as a repeat customer.

In short time, I have developed a pretty nice relationship with AD local to me. He sees the value in selling to me. Already I have purchased a few straps and a watch winder. For certain, I will be back for more products as they sell a few different items and brands in this store.

You are lucky in that you get the right of refusal. But you earned that somehow. And for certain, it make sense for the AD to give you that type of treatment. Otherwise they would not do it.

For a guy like me, I’m not ever going to get a 5711 from an AD. It is just not going to happen. And personally, I am okay with that. I don’t blame the AD.

I don’t blame the manufacturer either. They are creating the mystique and the prestige through limiting supply and ensuring that not everyone will have the opportunity to buy. After all, it is human nature and if everyone that wanted one could get one, not nearly as many people would want one.

AD’s too are in business to make money. And with limited stock to sell, that is a challenge for them.

I am all for paying gray or bundling if it brings a person closer to the goal. Whatever that goal might be.

I would prefer to be the guy that can get whatever he wants at MSRP. But there is a cost to that too.

Two separate sides of a similar coin, imo.

I totally agree with this. As consumers, I think we often overlook the AD's side of the coin. Were this 2008-2009, when business was slow, most ADs would not have been in the driver's seat. There is an ebb and flow to the economy and we're talking about luxury goods that will reflect that. To apply standards of behavior that may have been more appropriate of a slow economy just causes the consumer to lose out on a chance to play the game. We need to be open to shifts in the supply-demand model and not lose sight of the big picture.

[1688]

Originally Posted by slomosen

Doesn't it just come down to simple math? If you can flip the "unwanted" packaged watch for more of a gain than the extra you'd have to pay for grey market price of the watch you do want, I'd think you have your answer. As for what is or isn't appropriate behavior from an AD, I think it's a moot point. We just saw a 3-month old Tiffany 5711 being sold at auction yesterday. Something that wasn't even supposed to come to market... Do these things happen? Sure. No point in worrying about whether or not it's acceptable behavior. Ultimately we're still talking about ultra-luxury goods from people who run businesses. The morals/ethics of what's appropriate in this arena is blurry to begin with.

I completely agree with Seth in that your right of first refusal should be seen as an advantage and not a reason to "find another AD."

The original buyer of that 3-month old Tiffany 5711 is and will be blacklisted from all future Tiffany allocations. How can someone purchase the most wait listed piece, never mind a Tiffany stamped 5711, and re-sell it on an auction?? Must be someone who doesn't belong in the watch collecting circles and will only get this ONE TIME joy ride...hope he had fun while it lasted!!

[Donjo]

I don't think the 5711r is that hard to get, certainly not compared to the 5711 blue dial. Two years ago that watch was selling for a discount. I believe there is a cycle to this mania and those who are patient will be rewarded soon. My advice would be to broaden your search at ADs, and be willing to wait just a bit longer.

[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by slomosen

Doesn't it just come down to simple math? If you can flip the "unwanted" packaged watch for more of a gain than the extra you'd have to pay for grey market price of the watch you do want, I'd think you have your answer. As for what is or isn't appropriate behavior from an AD, I think it's a moot point. We just saw a 3-month old Tiffany 5711 being sold at auction yesterday. Something that wasn't even supposed to come to market... Do these things happen? Sure. No point in worrying about whether or not it's acceptable behavior. Ultimately we're still talking about ultra-luxury goods from people who run businesses. The morals/ethics of what's appropriate in this arena is blurry to begin with.

I completely agree with Seth in that your right of first refusal should be seen as an advantage and not a reason to "find another AD."

We can certainly see it as maths, but there is another angle which involves building a goodwill with the AD should we go down the bundling route. That, I supposed, constitutes a certain value in terms of what you can get from the AD in future.

[slomosen]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

We can certainly see it as maths, but there is another angle which involves building a goodwill with the AD should we go down the bundling route. That, I supposed, constitutes a certain value in terms of what you can get from the AD in future.

I totally agree. Though of note, in this case it seems that the AD in question is willing to forego goodwill with previously established customers... in exchange for those who are willing to pay more and help move inventory as part of package deals. I wouldn't go out of my way to expect to build a solid relationship under such circumstances. I'd just take it as a momentary opportunity.

[Sublovin]

Originally Posted by RHIII

Sorry - I don’t ‘’do’ or subscribe to ‘package’ deals. I think it is a detestable strategy by ANY AD - and I would take my business elsewhere - period.

My .02


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I think the “strategy” as you call it is the product of the way the manufacturers dump undesirable pieces on their AD’s without giving them the option of saying no thanks. How do you propose they sell these undesirable pieces which they are forced to buy and tie up working capital?

[Codik]

And dealers signed up to that deal. I am pretty sure that they also signed up to not doing “package” deals.

If my dealer tried that, I would change dealer.

[vtsnowplow]

Originally Posted by 1688

The original buyer of that 3-month old Tiffany 5711 is and will be blacklisted from all future Tiffany allocations. How can someone purchase the most wait listed piece, never mind a Tiffany stamped 5711, and re-sell it on an auction?? Must be someone who doesn't belong in the watch collecting circles and will only get this ONE TIME joy ride...hope he had fun while it lasted!!

How does European Watch Company have three 5167a Tiffany's? That seems like a bunch of guys flipping tiffany watches.

[RHIII]

Originally Posted by Sublovin

I think the “strategy” as you call it is the product of the way the manufacturers dump undesirable pieces on their AD’s without giving them the option of saying no thanks. How do you propose they sell these undesirable pieces which they are forced to buy and tie up working capital?

‘Dumping’ undesirable references is a pretty harsh perspective. When you’re an AD - and you have an account (like Rolex, Patek or AP) you agree to ‘buy’ inventory at a certain $ value - and it will obviously not be just the ‘hot’ or desirable references. Have had this conversation several times with my friends who have ADs.

It’s the cost of doing business - period. It is up to them to determine the proper business model / market strategy for them (ADs) to be successful - certainly not us or the manufacturers.

Just my .02


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[jon_jon]

Originally Posted by vtsnowplow

How does European Watch Company have three 5167a Tiffany's? That seems like a bunch of guys flipping tiffany watches.

5167A has been in production for ~10 years. I imagine all the Tiffany ADs combined receive a couple of dozen 5167A's a year, with the NYC store receiving the most. Unless you know the date of the Certificate, you do not know how old these watches are. They may have been sold at a Tiffany AD a month ago or 10 years ago. Could it be a quick flip for a profit? Possibly. But it could be an older watch that a seller wanted to cash in on after years of ownership.

[Calatrava r]

Originally Posted by SW1

If it was jewelry....a completely different perspective...but a slow moving watch no!!

This post makes sense. To the OP can you suggest to them you buy some jewelry for your wife or china you will use and appreciate instead of another watch you really do not want.

[Sublovin]

Originally Posted by RHIII

‘Dumping’ undesirable references is a pretty harsh perspective. When you’re an AD - and you have an account (like Rolex, Patek or AP) you agree to ‘buy’ inventory at a certain $ value - and it will obviously not be just the ‘hot’ or desirable references. Have had this conversation several times with my friends who have ADs.

It’s the cost of doing business - period. It is up to them to determine the proper business model / market strategy for them (ADs) to be successful - certainly not us or the manufacturers.

Just my .02


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I agree, which is why I think an AD has every right to “package” watches if they feel that gives them the best opportunity to sell the dust collectors

[Codik]

Originally Posted by Sublovin

I agree, which is why I think an AD has every right to “package” watches if they feel that gives them the best opportunity to sell the dust collectors

What would happen if Patek found out an AD does that?

[coralfarmer84]

I hear a lot of talk about slow movers and undesirable watches in a lot of threads including this one. If something is only selling when it has to be forced on a consumer (or AD for that matter) why keep producing it? Seems strange to me

[coralfarmer84]

And I have thought about this more and I don’t really care to package anything at this point unless I planned to buy anyways. The more I think about it makes less sense in this situation. I could see a 5711a blue dial almost requiring this at this point but can a 51k piece really be that hot of a mover forever?

[Calatrava r]

Seeing these threads makes me wonder why folks do not look at the complicated Patek models in the 35 to 37mm range. There are such great values out there now and I do not believe that will be the case for long. I believe the 5051 and a string of other similar references have the identical movement that is in the 5712. These are incredible watches and be had (relatively speaking) for next to nothing as folks went crazy with the over the top huge diameter watches around 2010 fueled by the Panarai craze. This market inefficiency will soon correct itself as people start to see the incredible values out there. Take a look at the PC 240Q movement cased in the 5040 or the 5039. Half the cost of a new one with the identical movement and a large oversized case. Just my two cents.

[enjoythemusic]

What's the name of your dealer that has you doing this 'package deal'?