What is the “new norm” for Rolex?

[10klakes]

The past 3-4 years have been unprecedented in terms of hype, demand, increases on the secondary market, and a notion of Rolex watches becoming investments; more-so than any time in the history of the brand.

How do you feel this will change availability to popular models as the market softens? Will we ever see GMTs sitting in displays? SS Skydwellers? Heck- SS Submariners? Back in 2017 these models were sitting and available, but are we beginning a new era of Rolex, where certain models might not be readily accessible moving forward?

There was a time in the 80s and early 90s the Daytona was sitting, and has never again been readily accessible or sitting in displays, and I wonder if this will be the “new norm” for other models or categories of Rolex sports.

Or will we get back to the days of all of the above, maybe even Daytonas, sitting and available at ADs for walk-in buyers…

[Calatrava r]

Actually, SS Daytona's were fairly easy to get for a few years after the 2008 downturn. My AD had both the white and black dials, steel bezels, in the case unsold for quite a while.

[Arid]

Availability and 15% discount! ;-) ��

[ArtNouveau]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

Actually, SS Daytona's were fairly easy to get for a few years after the 2008 downturn. My AD had both the white and black dials, steel bezels, in the case unsold for quite a while.

That never happened where I lived. There was a brief period around that time that grey price was barely above MSRP but I never saw one sitting in the case.

As far as the new normal, who knows? I can’t imagine the current hyper demand lasting for ever but neither do I see it returning to the “old days” anytime soon.

[Laostuh]

Yeah.. I got lucky with my 116710LN purchased brand new in 2017, just walked in off the street. Paid $7500 cash. Good times.

Unfortunately I don't think we are ever going back to that.

[rolex16]

Why do you guys think we can’t go back to what was normal for decades? I don’t get it.

[Ensign]

Markets always over correct.

Now there will be some who will say Rolex is different for whatever reason.

I hear greys aren’t buying Datejusts and low balling, if that, sports and PM. That means flippers can’t sell Datejusts at a profit; so I would expect them to be in the trays before too long. Probably PM and sports, too.

[doboy007]

Worst case I see is pre-pandemic levels where popular SS models weren't available but TT and full PM watches were somewhat available at ADs.

[Tim Plains]

The world is more developed than it was xx years ago. As long as new wealth keeps accumulating and Rolex supply remains the same, I'd say it won't improve.

One thing I've noticed about all the speculators here is they are very short sighted.

[10klakes]

Originally Posted by rolex16

Why do you guys think we can’t go back to what was normal for decades? I don’t get it.

The popularity the brand has experienced on social media has certainly brought newcomers. That, coupled with the ongoing rhetoric about Rolex being an investment, also seem to be a newer theme. Yes, it certainly could go back, but this is uncharted territory and it could mean a different norm in the long run, even with a downturn economy.

[G23Guy]

Judging by all the safe queens I see coming to market things will be rewinding a few years.

[AlbionJackal]

Originally Posted by rolex16

Why do you guys think we can’t go back to what was normal for decades? I don’t get it.

It's probably a minor point but Rolex prices rocketing have put them on the radar of a lot more people, therefore I think the demand will persist.

Perhaps not to the level seen recently but I can't imagine there will be thousands of customers on waitlists all around the World ringing up their ADs to say that they no longer want to be considered for SS models.

I could be wrong of course.

[taitun4life]

Originally Posted by rolex16

Why do you guys think we can’t go back to what was normal for decades? I don’t get it.

I don’t get it either. It’s like most guys don’t want it back cos they love the idea of the exclusivity it kinda gives em…🤷🏽*♂️

[teck21]

Originally Posted by taitun4life

I don’t get it either. It’s like most guys don’t want it back cos they love the idea of the exclusivity it kinda gives em…*

Rolex has always been exclusive.

The only thing that has changed is nature of the exclusivity associated with the brand.

The new norm is evolving everyday now.

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[RyanJ]

Originally Posted by teck21

Rolex has always been exclusive.

The only thing that has changed is nature of the exclusivity associated with the brand.

The new norm is evolving everyday now.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Rolex was not exclusive. Unless you are saying the price excludes some people then that is true but that is also true for virtual any luxury product.

For many years you could buy almost any Rolex model at deep discounts from Authorized Dealers, even deeper from the secondary market.

It was one of the most accessible mid tier luxury watches with a very wide price point for almost all buyers buying in the category.

[TswaneNguni]

The new norm ,what's the time span ? Today tomorrow,next week,next month ,next year ?

Short term thinking is a hobby of quick buck flippers,grey dealers and the grey market buyer .

Buy AD and all this angst is irrelevant.

Not to say that if Panda dropped a few bamboo points at the grey, demand at the AD vanished .
ADs will get higher demand now .More will think they have a chance at the AD.Same for all Rolex sports watches .

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by ArtNouveau

That never happened where I lived. There was a brief period around that time that grey price was barely above MSRP but I never saw one sitting in the case.

As far as the new normal, who knows? I can’t imagine the current hyper demand lasting for ever but neither do I see it returning to the “old days” anytime soon.

Same for me where we are. Daytona’s could easily be had in the late 80’s early 90’s … after that they became like unicorns

[Mystro]

Originally Posted by brandrea

Same for me where we are. Daytona’s could easily be had in the late 80’s early 90’s … after that they became like unicorns

It was that way everywhere in the North East as I traveled to a excessive amount of Rolex dealerships in the early 90’s. There was never a SS Daytona in a display case when the Daytona got a in-house Rolex movement.

As long as AD’s use even the lower tier Rolex models like DJ41mm as a incentive to sell their other non desirable jewelry nothing will change. Why would the AD’s want to change anything? You’re not putting that genie back in the bottle. I believe we will never go back to the days of full display cases of even DJ models. Once a president is set there’s no going back.

[TswaneNguni]

Originally Posted by Mystro

t I believe we will never go back to the days of full display cases of even DJ models. Once a president is set there’s no going back.

President Instagram ,non-elected dictator of the world .Rolex on the wrist and newly furbished with a LV handbag.

It is, what it is.

[teck21]

Originally Posted by RyanJ

Rolex was not exclusive. Unless you are saying the price excludes some people then that is true but that is also true for virtual any luxury product.

For many years you could buy almost any Rolex model at deep discounts from Authorized Dealers, even deeper from the secondary market.

It was one of the most accessible mid tier luxury watches with a very wide price point for almost all buyers buying in the category.

In the old days Rolex was exclusive purely on the basis of price. As you said, luxury watch, even if only mid tier.

It was never cheap, even with discounts.

It is now exclusive on much more than price.


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[buffetwarren]

I think there will be greater availability at ADs. My only concern is ADs have used a profitable model in recent years (using bundling and spend history to sell desirable Rolexes) and may stick to this approach even as the market softens. You'll still have people out there willing to shell out tens of thousands to get their hands on a popular sports model.

[daddywalrus]

Originally Posted by Mystro

It was that way everywhere in the North East as I traveled to a excessive amount of Rolex dealerships in the early 90’s. There was never a SS Daytona in a display case when the Daytona got a in-house Rolex movement.

As long as AD’s use even the lower tier Rolex models like DJ41mm as a incentive to sell their other non desirable jewelry nothing will change. Why would the AD’s want to change anything? You’re not putting that genie back in the bottle. I believe we will never go back to the days of full display cases of even DJ models. Once a president is set there’s no going back.

If there is an economic downturn they might not have a choice. They will sell what they can to survive.

Have peope suddenly forgotten what happens during a recession???

[10klakes]

I do think discounts are gone for good. Rolex will do what it can to keep the supply and demand balance in check.

[Bustelo]

Originally Posted by RyanJ

Rolex was not exclusive. Unless you are saying the price excludes some people then that is true but that is also true for virtual any luxury product.

For many years you could buy almost any Rolex model at deep discounts from Authorized Dealers, even deeper from the secondary market.

It was one of the most accessible mid tier luxury watches with a very wide price point for almost all buyers buying in the category.

I just don't agree. That may be common thought amongst this forum or WIS, but buying a Rolex is not really in the cards for average middle class people. It's doable, but it would mean sacrificing something else. As of today accessing a Rolex is more out of reach than ever. $10,000+ on a wristwatch is not normal or middle class at all.

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by Mystro

It was that way everywhere in the North East as I traveled to a excessive amount of Rolex dealerships in the early 90’s. There was never a SS Daytona in a display case when the Daytona got a in-house Rolex movement.

As long as AD’s use even the lower tier Rolex models like DJ41mm as a incentive to sell their other non desirable jewelry nothing will change. Why would the AD’s want to change anything? You’re not putting that genie back in the bottle. I believe we will never go back to the days of full display cases of even DJ models. Once a president is set there’s no going back.

DJs are not lower tier, in fact they are undoubtedly the most sold model through Rolex history.

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by Bustelo

I just don't agree. That may be common thought amongst this forum or WIS, but buying a Rolex is not really in the cards for average middle class people. It's doable, but it would mean sacrificing something else. As of today accessing a Rolex is more out of reach than ever. $10,000+ on a wristwatch is not normal or middle class at all.

Sorry, but upper middle class and above have been Rolex's mainstay. Get on an airplane in coach and look around and you will see a lot of Rolexes. How many APs and Pateks have you seen in coach?

[Mystro]

Originally Posted by daddywalrus

If there is an economic downturn they might not have a choice. They will sell what they can to survive.

Have peope suddenly forgotten what happens during a recession???

No they won’t. To put this in perspective: We are not talking about big money and not the demographic that will be effected when wanting a Rolex regardless of a recession. The demand will be there. Most of the folks hit hardest by a recession are not in the luxury watch market to begin with.
I don’t have major FU money but I have enough to position myself that I am insulated to the point my lifestyle of my family will not be effected one bit if gas is $10 a gallon. Plenty of folks with a lot more money than I do will go on buying and the real big money won’t even think twice if they want to drop $50k on another watch. In 2008 I ended up making some of my greatest investment purchases when others were having Real estate fire sales.

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by Mystro

No they won’t. To put this in perspective: We are not talking about big money and not the demographic that will be effected when wanting a Rolex regardless of a recession. Most of the folks hit hardest by a recession are not in the luxury watch market to begin with.
I don’t have major FU money but I have enough to position myself that I am insulated to the point my lifestyle of my family will not be effected one bit if gas is $10 a gallon. Plenty of folks with a lot more money than I do will go on buying and the real big money won’t even think twice if they want to drop $50k on another watch.

This is just not true. Look, I own and like Rolexes too, but let's not act like all Rolex owners are somehow above it all. There are plenty of Rolex owners that are employees working for someone else, flying coach, paying mortgages, etc. Americans are notorious for low savings and living paycheck to paycheck, even those that appear wealthy (high mortgages, car payments, etc.). Those people can and will be impacted.

[Mystro]

Originally Posted by rolex16

This is just not true. Look, I own and like Rolexes too, but let's not act like all Rolex owners are somehow above it all. There are plenty of Rolex owners that are employees working for someone else, flying coach, paying mortgages, etc. Americans are notorious for low savings and living paycheck to paycheck, even those that appear wealthy (high mortgages, car payments, etc.). Those people can and will be impacted.

You’re generalizing. Why do you assume so many in the luxury watch buying demographic have mortgages and don’t own everything that they have? There is a lot of money out there in middle America that isn’t leveraged at all.
To put it this way, enough people are financially above it in the small luxury watch buying demographic to still keep the demand up.

[Van Scott]

Originally Posted by rolex16

This is just not true. Look, I own and like Rolexes too, but let's not act like all Rolex owners are somehow above it all. There are plenty of Rolex owners that are employees working for someone else, flying coach, paying mortgages, etc. Americans are notorious for low savings and living paycheck to paycheck, even those that appear wealthy (high mortgages, car payments, etc.). Those people can and will be impacted.

Couldn’t agree with this more.