"The Start of Something"

[GradyPhilpott]

I don't know whom he is, but he lives in Japan and he has a friend in the US with an interesting tale.

Grey Market Dealers NOT Buying Rolex Watches! (Flipping Flippers are Gonna Flip Out!)

[shaunylw]

I could see some smaller shops not buying a lot. It all depends on inventory. If they have multiples of a watch, they are not going to get it at todays price when it could be 10% lower in a month. I would imagine offers from greys will be extremely low to leave them room for downturn.


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[pepemaui]

Finance is cyclical and historical...We remember 2008 and 2013...nothing can stop global finance directions.... When we see the entry level Rolex's on shelves, the rest has been sitting already.....IMHO, that would be a late sign....

It took 2 years to get here, it may take that long to return to "normal", but it will.....Again, just an opinion based on a personal historical perspective....

[Podmornica]

The ADs will be begging!

[temporarychicken]

My local AD loses their franchise at the end of the year.

They offered me a couple of bits a year ago but nothing that I really wanted.

This year they said they were still getting deliveries but all were accounted for until the end of year.

I wonder if I'll get to buy one from them after all? Happy Christmas maybe? Dunno.

[gramo]

Originally Posted by temporarychicken

My local AD loses their franchise at the end of the year.

They offered me a couple of bits a year ago but nothing that I really wanted.

This year they said they were still getting deliveries but all were accounted for until the end of year.

I wonder if I'll get to buy one from them after all? Happy Christmas maybe? Dunno.

Which ADs is this that is closing down?

[temporarychicken]

Chichester, UK

[subtona]

Staying tuned.

[IR201]

I'm no expert (I mean that sincerely), but wouldn't they kind of have to keep buying to stay in business? Now at what price, that's a diff Q.

[Mystro]

I said all this all last week. The Canary in the coal mine is if you can walk into an authorized dealer and see any two-tone DateJust 41mm models in the display case. That would indicate there is some models the general public is not buying. Then maybe a SS DJ41. That is the very first indication the market is slowing down from a general public and practical point of view. Currently any and all “Rolex” models are being bought up. It isn’t until you see lower tier models actually sitting in the display case to be purchased on the spot does that start to show any change.

[fgress3969]

[IR201]

Originally Posted by Mystro

I said all this all last week. The Canary in the coal mine is if you can walk into an authorized dealer and see any two-tone DateJust 41mm models in the display case. That would indicate there is some models the general public is not buying. Then maybe a SS DJ41. That is the very first indication the market is slowing down from a general public and practical point of view. Currently any and all “Rolex” models are being bought up. It isn’t until you see lower tier models actually sitting in the display case to be purchased on the spot does that start to show any change.

Any reason the ADs would not put them back in the display, even if people were not rushing to buy them?

[ajw45]

Originally Posted by Mystro

I said all this all last week. The Canary in the coal mine is if you can walk into an authorized dealer and see any two-tone DateJust 41mm models in the display case. That would indicate there is some models the general public is not buying. Then maybe a SS DJ41. That is the very first indication the market is slowing down from a general public and practical point of view. Currently any and all “Rolex” models are being bought up. It isn’t until you see lower tier models actually sitting in the display case to be purchased on the spot does that start to show any change.

The canary in the coal mine is the greys. They feel the impact of the demand drop first. ADs are insulated by waitlists and deposits to be fulfilled. By the time there are watches in the cases the weak canaries (smaller greys) have already died and the ADs will be feeling the air being let out when there are watches in the cases. The ADs, the primary market, those are the actual people in your analogy. The canaries are all the dead flippers and backpack dealers.

[Mystro]

Originally Posted by IR201

Any reason the ADs would not put them back in the display, even if people were not rushing to buy them?

As long as AD’s use even the lower tier Rolex models as a insensitive to sell their undesirable jewelry, there is no reason why AD’s would ever want anything to change. This new sales technique with bundling jewelry sales with the possibility of a Rolex sale is a all new genie that is now out of the bottle. Why would the AD ever want that to change now? Rolex is selling every model they make and the AD is selling every model they need to as well as leveraging the Rolex to sell their other jewelry. Nothing needs to change and both Rolex and AD doesn’t want it to change. This is why I say until the lower tier Rolex model is put on display to buy in the display case by the AD, nothing will ever change. It’s all in the AD’s power to keep the Rolex models locked up regardless what the economy does. The AD’s always has a outlet to move their product besides in their brick and mortar stores regardless how bad the economy gets. As much as people like to point their frustrations at the grey market, they should be pointing their rage straight at the AD as it all starts with their inventory from Rolex. It isn’t Rolex selling their watches out the back door to the grey market.

Grey dealers are not even a factor in the AD world as far as their incoming inventory from Rolex. AD’s supply many of the grey market to begin with so the finger always points back to the AD as they are THE first in the chain to decide where a Rolex model ends up and how it is sold. The grey market is just a secondary factor long after the AD had first crack at the Rolex watches.

[dukie748]

Originally Posted by temporarychicken

Chichester, UK

Surprised by that one - was in there last year, nice store - did they have any association with the store a few hundred feet down the street carrying Bremont / Breitling etc?

[IR201]

Originally Posted by Mystro

As long as AD’s use even the lower tier Rolex models as a insensitive to sell their undesirable jewelry, there is no reason why AD’s would ever want anything to change. This new sales technique with bundling jewelry sales with the possibility of a Rolex sale is a all new genie that is now out of the bottle. Why would the AD ever want that to change now? Rolex is selling every model they make and the AD is selling every model they need to as well as leveraging the Rolex to sell their other jewelry. Nothing needs to change and both Rolex and AD doesn’t want it to change. This is why I say until the lower tier Rolex model is put on display to buy in the display case by the AD, nothing will ever change. It’s all in the AD’s power to keep the Rolex models locked up regardless what the economy does. The AD’s always has a outlet to move their product besides in their brick and mortar stores regardless how bad the economy gets. As much as people like to point their frustrations at the grey market, they should be pointing their rage straight at the AD as it all starts with their inventory from Rolex. It isn’t Rolex selling their watches out the back door to the grey market.

Grey dealers are not even a factor in the AD world as far as their incoming inventory from Rolex. AD’s supply many of the grey market to begin with so the finger always points back to the AD as they are THE first in the chain to decide where a Rolex model ends up and how it is sold. The grey market is just a secondary factor long after the AD had first crack at the Rolex watches.

Got it thanks!

[thomaspp]

It’s just the beginning


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[Njkdog]

Originally Posted by GradyPhilpott

I don't know whom he is, but he lives in Japan and he has a friend in the US with an interesting tale.

Grey Market Dealers NOT Buying Rolex Watches! (Flipping Flippers are Gonna Flip Out!)

You don’t know Austin?!! He’s been around for a while, he’s an interesting guy, he seems to have a good heart

[amh]

Screw the AD, I'm never buying jewelry again (although wife did appreciate it, ha ha!) Bring on the crash.

[Moondoggy]

Problem is for the grey, how much do they pay.

[GradyPhilpott]

Originally Posted by Njkdog

You don’t know Austin?!! He’s been around for a while, he’s an interesting guy, he seems to have a good heart

That was the first time I ever ran across that channel.

I'll subscribe.

[mquarter]

I quite like Austin Daniels' channel. He seems genuine and is knowledgable about certain pre-ceramic pieces.

[brandrea]

Is it just me, or is he almost unbearable to listen to?

[mountainjogger]

Interesting Grady.

[travisb]

Makes sense. We'll see where this all goes.

[WILLIWALKER]

Originally Posted by Mystro

I said all this all last week. The Canary in the coal mine is if you can walk into an authorized dealer and see any two-tone DateJust 41mm models in the display case. That would indicate there is some models the general public is not buying. Then maybe a SS DJ41. That is the very first indication the market is slowing down from a general public and practical point of view. Currently any and all “Rolex” models are being bought up. It isn’t until you see lower tier models actually sitting in the display case to be purchased on the spot does that start to show any change.

Good point, but if I may say so, you assume that the ADs are playing fair and showcasing the available parts.

Except I don't think so at all. I think they have enough cash to afford it and that they will continue to play the shortage game by displaying NOTHING in the window or on a drip account to maintain this atmosphere even if it means selling under the radar.

It will last a while before bursting when they will be caught up by Rolex for questionable practices or by the lack of cash.

Nevertheless I agree when I read that everything slows down, deflates.
When I see around me and even me who loves the brand more than any other material, I turn away from it, tired of it all.
I sold one of my daytona while it was time and it paid me a leisure car in cash, it's incredible.
A few weeks ago, with a Pepsi 126710 you largely furnished a house.

Hard return to reality in perspective!

[WILLIWALKER]

Originally Posted by thomaspp

It’s just the beginning


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+1 it will swing

[temporarychicken]

So when the safe is full, where will the AD keep this forecoming treasure trove of unsold references?

Never the actual window. The waste bin? Maybe a bargain bucket type arrangement with a badly hand drawn 'sale' sign.

Well we can dream for now at least.

[temporarychicken]

Originally Posted by dukie748

Surprised by that one - was in there last year, nice store - did they have any association with the store a few hundred feet down the street carrying Bremont / Breitling etc?

I'm not sure if they supplied that particular store but I did see a new unworn explorer 36 rolesor in the second hand place directly next-door.

The Rolex service manager told me that they are going to do Grand Seiko next year. Lovely stuff but needs a lot of brand building was my unhelpful suggestion.

They are also doubling down on Tudor. He was wearing a nice gold Black Bay.

[ap1]

Originally Posted by amh

Screw the AD, I'm never buying jewelry again (although wife did appreciate it, ha ha!) Bring on the crash.

Bundle this