ROLEX HOT MODELS RIGHT NOW??? Future collectibles

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by WhiskeyKoffee

I see your point and understand where you are coming from, but I also disagree. At least in the early days, it would be all about having the newest, greatest thing.

That just will not happen.

People came out and stated the same thing about the Non Ceramic Daytona when the Daytona -C came out...

Didn't happen in the slightest....not for a second.

The Non Ceramic Daytonas shot up in price and are still going up.

The only discontinued Rolex that go down in value due to new models and are discontinued are Datejusts and Day Date's...because collectors don't care about those references in the least.

The Milguass with standard crystal has been meh since it was discontinued....it hasn't dropped, but nobody is going gaga over them either. It just isn't that popular a watch...at least for now.

[wuyeah]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

That just will not happen.

People came out and stated the same thing about the Non Ceramic Daytona when the Daytona -C came out...

Didn't happen in the slightest....not for a second.

The Non Ceramic Daytonas shot up in price and are still going up.

The only discontinued Rolex that go down in value due to new models and are discontinued are Datejusts and Day Date's...because collectors don't care about those references in the least.

The Milguass with standard crystal has been meh since it was discontinued....it hasn't dropped, but nobody is going gaga over them either. It just isn't that popular a watch...at least for now.

I agree with to most part but still leave in doubt for the White Milgauss. Original versions of Milgauss was not raved in their time and later gain collectibility. Never know. I still looking good on that one. Although I own GV instead.

[John Ireland]

Batman, Hulk, James Cameron? Seriously? None of the new watches are collector pieces, they are just over priced new watches. 11.8 million for Paul Newman's PN was pure stupid money. It isn't worth a dollar more than any other Daytona. Paul Newman would laugh at anybody who paid more. Right now watch manufacturers are creating "limited editions" and making chumps out of those who buy them. It takes the passage of time and some horological uniqueness or technology to create a watch that is valued by true collectors. Oversized watches with cartoon names from the marketing department will never make the list.

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by John Ireland

Batman, Hulk, James Cameron? Seriously? None of the new watches are collector pieces, they are just over priced new watches. 11.8 million for Paul Newman's PN was pure stupid money. It isn't worth a dollar more than any other Daytona. Paul Newman would laugh at anybody who paid more. Right now watch manufacturers are creating "limited editions" and making chumps out of those who buy them. It takes the passage of time and some horological uniqueness or technology to create a watch that is valued by true collectors. Oversized watches with cartoon names from the marketing department will never make the list.

huh

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by wuyeah

I agree with to most part but still leave in doubt for the White Milgauss. Original versions of Milgauss was not raved in their time and later gain collectibility. Never know. I still looking good on that one. Although I own GV instead.

Yeah..i have a black dial standard Milgauss that I like...

It's just a slower burn on the value increase....BUT i have had a TD I know and respect tell me that they are real pain in the azz to get for customers...so that shows there aren't all that many floating around, so their day may come...

[Nairn1980]

Originally Posted by John Ireland

Batman, Hulk, James Cameron? Seriously? None of the new watches are collector pieces, they are just over priced new watches. 11.8 million for Paul Newman's PN was pure stupid money. It isn't worth a dollar more than any other Daytona. Paul Newman would laugh at anybody who paid more. Right now watch manufacturers are creating "limited editions" and making chumps out of those who buy them. It takes the passage of time and some horological uniqueness or technology to create a watch that is valued by true collectors. Oversized watches with cartoon names from the marketing department will never make the list.

[Devildog]

Originally Posted by aquatimerfla

Agree. I just thought the article was interesting. The OP was coming from a 2017/18 angle of course.

Top 3:

1) Rolex 16610LV
2) RolexSD4k
3) Rolex DSSD JC


The rest is debateable

I’d add one to the list - the SD43 if (and it’s a big if) the red text gets discontinued. Then we’ll have a flat 4 scenario. The D Blue may depend on whether it remains in production or not.

I’d add that it’s easy to get hung up on “in demand but can’t get” versus collectibility. 5 digit Daytona prices are rising because ceramics are scarce. That’s not necessarily evidence of future collectibility. Likewise the popularity of the 5 digit Subs. They are a less expensive entry to the Sub club (and they look better to some).

But anything produced in significant quantities with a very long life span is unlikely to be collectable.

[Ruud Van Driver]

Originally Posted by Helmi

No one mentioned the new ss skydweller

Um, Lee did in post #44

[Helmi]

Originally Posted by Ruud Van Driver

Um, Lee did in post #44

Cheers

[AK797]

Originally Posted by WhiskeyKoffee

I see your point and understand where you are coming from, but I also disagree. At least in the early days, it would be all about having the newest, greatest thing.

If you were a dealer would you suddenly slash your profits by 30-50%? No ofc not. The watch markets are very slow and inefficient when they come to correcting downwards, esp compared to efficient fluid equity markets, and they will only fall if dealers find the old watches are sitting around unsold for months, which is very unlikely esp given the new model will be released at a very slow rate. As we saw with the SD43 and SD4K once something is disco-ed the price is usually raised in anticipation of the inevitable undersupply.

[SADDLE]

1.) SD4K
2.) SS GMT BLRO
3.) Hulk

If possible I'd add any and all of these to a collection and sleep well at night knowing I likely bought them for the least price they will ever be as I truly feel that we have reached the floor on all 3 of those models and prices will do nothing but appreciate over time.

Fortunately, for me, I've been able to obtain all but the GMT. I'm still looking for a clean, no holes case example.

[perry731]

At the moment I only see two watches from Rolex and Tudor that are future collectible.

1) Rolex SD4000

2) Tudor Black Bay Black 79220N

I don't see any other Rolex/Tudor mass production models to become collectible as there are just either too many supply or not very popular.

[Pte6000]

[Godfather111]

Originally Posted by aquatimerfla

But they are not limited runs

The 16610LV was produced for approx 7 years. The SD43 could be around 4,8,12 years etc. No one knows. Where did you get limited run from?.

The 16610LV currently is the most collectible sports model in the past 20 years.

Most limited production run in Rolex modern history is the recently discontinued SD4k. Approx 30 months. This model might very well surpass the 16610LV at some point value wise.

I'm sorry if I got the term wrong.

By 'limited run' I meant watches produced to commemorate a benchmark, like 50th anniversary editions. Like the Kermit which was manufactured only from 2003 to 2010. I am guessing the SD43, being likewise a 50th anniversary watch would be produced for only about the same number of years or less.

[AS1]

Originally Posted by Justinmg

I don’t think any modern mass produced Rolex is going to be collectible, there are just to many in circulation.

agreed

[beshannon]

Lots of future collectibles here

[AK797]

A lot depends on the demand for luxury watches. In the past for a watch to be collectible it had to have some sort of story around it and it was usually of limited supply, plus there was a large watch market and lots of choice. Now with demand falling away from most brands and the industry as a whole set to contract sharply to the Igeneration, only the strong will survive like those brands and watches that are already selling at premiums, and so this concentration to a few models will make them collectible purely on this overdemand, rather than the previous undersupply, basis.

[John Ireland]

The original Rolex Sub and GMT and Explorer and DateJust and Day Date and Milgauss were not "collectable" out of the box. Nor was the Cosmograph. They were just examples of many watches available in the market place. They were made for function, not fashion. Time turned the early examples into collectibles, in part because of survival rates added an element of rarity. The vintage watch collectible movement created the current market trend of "limited editions" as the industry tries to create instant classics to gin up their profit margins. Yes there is often price gouging and over msrp mania in limited volume cars and watches...but someone always get stuck holding the short end of the stick. It will take many years before most buyers will get back the retail price they pay for a new watch today. And if you over pay...it may be never.

[Gerry62]

The only modern Rolex by collectible ......
116520
IMHO

[HORNBLOWER]

1675 Pepsi GMT.

[wuyeah]

A lot of "collectible" today, part of it is because back in the days lack of source, communication and transparency. Today, with internet, it is a bit different. Like how we use forum to talk about vintage pieces, it was very hard today. Some pieces in common folks' without properly taking care of ended up disappearing. Some pieces were not selling in their time, later become so few left on market to source. Or majority of people don't even know such model exist or how many were produced. Rolex production capability were different than today as well. Many models today are so mass produced, it is very different how Rolex used to be.

All, I want to say is. With transparency of internet. What we own today, it is possible will never be as "collectible". General principle is, buy Rolex that you like. Not buy Rolex as an investment.

[outtatime]

Well I have an SD4000 that I wear, and a Hulk still sealed. Regretting not keeping the SD sealed as well. If I see prices start to dip on the Hulk I may sell it, otherwise I’ll keep it in the safe for a few years and see if I can’t make some money. If I find another sealed SD4000 before prices go up higher I may sit on one of those too.

[aquatimerfla]

Originally Posted by outtatime

Well I have an SD4000 that I wear, and a Hulk still sealed. Regretting not keeping the SD sealed as well. If I see prices start to dip on the Hulk I may sell it, otherwise I’ll keep it in the safe for a few years and see if I can’t make some money. If I find another sealed SD4000 before prices go up higher I may sit on one of those too.

Wear them. Just dont polish. NOS is a suckers bet considering they become 'pre-worn' the minute stickers are taken off.

A pre-owned non polished 116610LV will sell for close to NOS anyways

Polishing kills the watch

[outtatime]

Originally Posted by aquatimerfla

Wear them. Just dont polish. NOS is a suckers bet considering they become 'pre-worn' the minute stickers are taken off.

A pre-owned non polished 116610LV will sell for close to NOS anyways

Polishing kills the watch

Look at prices for 16610LV’s. Sealed/unworn are $4-6k higher than used, even if unpolished and mint. Not worth removing the stickers.

[aquatimerfla]

Originally Posted by outtatime

Look at prices for 16610LV’s. Sealed/unworn are $4-6k higher than used, even if unpolished and mint. Not worth removing the stickers.

Fair enough. I prefer to wear my watches. Looking at them is boring. For the amount of time they will take to appreciate I could invest the $$ other places for just as long with much better returns.

[PhilK]

Originally Posted by teo

1) SD4k has unique case no other Rolex has. It has the shortest production run.
2) submariner 16610LV kermit is the only watch that can be consider 50th anniversary not hulk.
3) steel zenith daytona 16520. Rolex & Zenith u get two big brands. It is the first automatic chronograph Rolex ever made. The first daytona that started the craze.

Totally agree with the above. Particularly the Daytona 16520.... The fact that Rolex chose to duplicate the dial on the latest Daytona highlights what a classic this was

[landroverking]

Can't see any of the modern so called "hot models " becoming collectors items.

[Darth1904]

Sub two tone 18k gold with blue dial!

[Mystro]

The only watch I consider a collectable is the next one I lust after and have to own. That is always a moving target. Look at it this way,...If you own it, its collectable to you and that is all that matters.

[sawhornsoff]

This could have some collectible potential. Introduced at Basel 2013 and the dial and hands were changed in 2017. That makes relatively fewer watches (as compared to other models) with the blue hands and blue hour markers.