When will the Rolex bubble burst?

[Santiago32]

We’ll see how well the thread ages.

Things are slow because of watches and wonders.

[teck21]

Originally Posted by Santiago32

We’ll see how well the thread ages.

Things are slow because of watches and wonders.

This post is merely a collection of views on where it might be headed.

Too bad I didn’t put up some prices for reference then.

Does anyone have a definitive value for how much a LNIB 126710BLRO was in Oct 2021?

Definitive, not some hazy notion.

I know a value of at least US$27,000 applies today because I just watched it happen.

If anyone has definitive figures for other references for the same time period, feel free to add them here.

I like detail, definitions and specificity. It’s all nonsense otherwise.

[johnwigan]

Originally Posted by arche3

The style of these RM watches are ok. The technology is pretty sweet. But can you see people wearing them in 10 years?

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Franck Mueller deja vu

[Bro Watch]

It will never burst, but that's my opinion. The harder Rolex are to get, the more people want them; that's just human nature. That's what is driving the price up and the demand.

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[A.Sharp]

Did any one see the axios article? The market has already softened. if you look at the avg market value graph this is trending downward right now.

[RanHong]

its bursting as we speak. prices of the hot models are on the way down

[Nairn1980]

Originally Posted by RanHong

its bursting as we speak. prices of the hot models are on the way down

Bit of a correction. I predict prices will climb again at the end of summer.

[scurfa]

When will the bubble burst? I’m killing time in the decompression chamber and have just watched ‘the man with the golden gun’ here we have James Bond running around with his Submariner, Goodnight with her Stainless Steel Oyster and Gucci bag, all this with an energy crisis, the film is 48 years old! Nothing changes!

[Yellowfury]

Hodinkee just sent me an email for 750 off Rolexes lol. If that isn’t a sign I don’t know what is.

[bkdc]

People feel less wealthy as their portfolios are shrinking. Drastically.
Rolex is benefitting from the increased sense of scarcity as grey market dealers clear the inventories of authorized dealers. This only benefits Rolex when it comes to pricing. Who knows if Rolex will actually target the grey market.

[GradyPhilpott]

The bubble will burst when people stop paying stupid prices for watches.

[Loevhagen]

Originally Posted by GradyPhilpott

The bubble will burst when people stop paying stupid prices for watches.

Well, if that's the case - the bubble will never burst - because the number of idiots present in the market is too large (to fail).

[Bmats]

Part of me thinks it will be somewhat model specific we see the movement on/bubble burst. Take a 124060 that retails around $9k and was going for about $15k. If the price goes down to $12k from greys, then they means they’re buying it at what price? $10,500? And so the flipper nets a bit over $1k on the deal? At some point, it seems like the flipper decides it’s not worth it, or the grey dealer decides it’s not worth it since the prices between MSRP and what he can sell it for becomes too hard to divide between the grey and the flipper.

At that point, maybe things become easier to get that piece from an AD (and it’s not one of the hardest anyway).

On the other hand, something like a GMT II may be entirely different because the flipper and grey may have more range to play with between MSRP and whatever the current “market” price is.

If things like this in the economy continue, it seems certain that DJs and other pieces that used to be available at ADs will become available once again.

[GradyPhilpott]

Originally Posted by Loevhagen

Well, if that's the case - the bubble will never burst - because the number of idiots present in the market is too large (to fail).

A fool and his money are soon parted (depleted).

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[jarecki]

Originally Posted by Loevhagen

Well, if that's the case - the bubble will never burst - because the number of idiots present in the market is too large (to fail).

You may be right, unfortunately…

[Loevhagen]

Originally Posted by jarecki

You may be right, unfortunately…

There's still hope though...because a lot of idiots have mortages.