Top of market pricing - regrets, resale?

[CHRONOLEX]

There is a lot of talk about Rolex market peaking, cratering, whatever phrase you want. Certainly also the theme of YouTube watch channels of late. There are people happy about this, and some upset or scared about a collapse.

For those who have recently acquired pieces at peaky market pricing (not retail), are you looking at your purchase any differently? Any thoughts about selling now with potential to re-buy it at a later time, if market further softens?

I bought several heavy pieces last year at pretty full prices (BNIB at gray) and I have been curious about selling while I'm still in the money. I'm not really a seller of watches and I always buy to hold forever, but on some of the stuff that I don't truly love (or bought on impulse), it's certainly a temptation.

Others thinking about this?

[Chiboy]

If you’re looking to sell a watch now and repurchase it at a cheaper price later: good luck. While I get that half the people currently active on TRF view watches as an asset class rather than a passion, the “trading” costs in such an illiquid market make it a fool’s errand to try. Sure, if the market halves or doubles, you can make a little timing it just right. But I’d guess a mere 25% move in the direction you expect would not be enough to offset shipping, bid-ask spreads, etc.

But hey, go for it if you want! Whatever makes you happy with watches.

[CHRONOLEX]

Originally Posted by Chiboy

If you’re looking to sell a watch now and repurchase it at a cheaper price later: good luck. While I get that half the people currently active on TRF view watches as an asset class rather than a passion, the “trading” costs in such an illiquid market make it a fool’s errand to try. Sure, if the market halves or doubles, you can make a little timing it just right. But I’d guess a mere 25% move in the direction you expect would not be enough to offset shipping, bid-ask spreads, etc.

But hey, go for it if you want! Whatever makes you happy with watches.

Always appreciate your thoughts. To be clear, my question was not really about profit-seeking. It was about if you paid $150k for a standard dial Platona, for example, and you never wear it, do you think about selling it now and not leaving that excess exposure. In this example, to re-buy the Platona later would be a subsequent decision.

[Fritzli]

What is important, is that you re still "in the money"! Haha!

[CHRONOLEX]

Originally Posted by Fritzli

What is important, is that you re still "in the money"! Haha!

Haha, I thought that phrase would catch a comment or two!

[10klakes]

30-years from now the cost/purchase price will be minuscule, even if it was secondary market prices. Getting in and out of these pieces, especially through secondary watch dealers is a hefty premium/margin, and I think they are low-balling even more in case the market continues downward and pieces don’t move.

Buy, wear, enjoy.

[CHRONOLEX]

Originally Posted by 10klakes

30-years from now the cost/purchase price will be minuscule, even if it was secondary market prices. Getting in and out of these pieces, especially through secondary watch dealers is a hefty premium/margin, and I think they are low-balling even more in case the market continues downward and pieces don’t move.

Buy, wear, enjoy.

Good comment. I was lucky to get all of my recent stuff BNIB and I put a premium on being able to find new with card dated within 30 days of buying. Hard to replicate that, I would think.

[rolexpure]

If you bought recently your down at least 20-25%. I'd be very careful buying anything anytime soon if you going gray market.

Unless you absolutely dont care and you just want that piece I'd say you better wait it out.

[johnwigan]

Originally Posted by 10klakes

30-years from now the cost/purchase price will be minuscule, even if it was secondary market prices. Getting in and out of these pieces, especially through secondary watch dealers is a hefty premium/margin, and I think they are low-balling even more in case the market continues downward and pieces don’t move.

Buy, wear, enjoy.

Paid $150k. The cost/purchase price will be miniscule 30 years from now???? What does this even mean? It makes no sense. Enjoy losing a lot of money? Is 30 years the timescale to justify bubble prices now. I wonder what $150k invested in a S&P 500 fund would be worth in 30 years, - in comparison?

If you wear the watch it is going to get worn out. If you leave it in safe for 30 years you would have been better off investing in a productive asset. Either way paying at the top of a bubble isn't going to make you enjoy the watch more than if you paid RRP or got a discount.

I sincerely hope that you are so wealthy that your watch purchases are trifling sums to you that you can afford to lose and you've not invested your life savings in watches. If it is the latter I would be looking to cash out at a loss, lick my wounds and move on.

[johnwigan]

Originally Posted by CHRONOLEX

Good comment. I was lucky to get all of my recent stuff BNIB and I put a premium on being able to find new with card dated within 30 days of buying. Hard to replicate that, I would think.

Not sure what the purpose of paying a premium for a card dated within 30 days is for. If you are spending a lot of money on watches why would you not just spend at an AD yourself? Why pay inflated prices to middle men?

[huncho]

Originally Posted by johnwigan

Not sure what the purpose of paying a premium for a card dated within 30 days is for. If you are spending a lot of money on watches why would you not just spend at an AD yourself? Why pay inflated prices to middle men?

it's a bit problematic when you can't even buy one of the many watches required to get offered a platona though

[Golfbone]

Very simple. Buy watches you love and get them from the AD at MSRP (or less if you can)

If you go grey it better be for a piece you cannot live without and cannot wait for and really want personally. It's foolish to expect that to be a great investment.

If you paid top dollar for a desirable piece just enjoy it and don't worry about what it's worth.

If you bought a desirable piece from the AD you did fine. You will continue to do fine. Wear it and enjoy. Give it to your kids or sell it whatever down the road but you are in good shape.

Markets fluctuate and vary. Can't worry about it. Can't time it. Buy what you like and enjoy it.

[Fritzli]

I just ordered a chrystal-ball from Alibabaexpress but they have some delivery delays!

[Mystro]

Originally Posted by johnwigan

Paid $150k. The cost/purchase price will be miniscule 30 years from now???? What does this even mean? It makes no sense..

I’ll clarify it for you with what I believe the spirit of the post is:
If you can’t afford to lose a a bit of money to begin with, you have no business playing in the luxury watch game. Watches are not investments. Same with boats, luxury cars, or any other luxury purchase. Honestly, $50k either up or down is couch cushion money for a lot of people and certainly not life changing money for most. That said, in the long run the Rolex watches will probably be worth more money even buying at the current top of the market right now if you absolutely must equate every purchase to value for money. There is the rub with many, the NEED to equate every purchase as “value for money”. If everything must be boiled down to value for money, then the “luxury” is not a part of your true lifestyle. Vacations, food, etc.. generally will suck if “value for money” is you goal.
We are talking Rolex watches and not seven figure Real estate. I certainly would pay $20k more for a luxury watch rather than to play AD games and wait 5 years or worse yet not get anything.
In the end you can’t take it with you and most people at a certain age and success in life won’t remember paying $20k more for a watch even a year later.

[GK12345EMAIL]

Originally Posted by johnwigan

I sincerely hope that you are so wealthy that your watch purchases are trifling sums to you that you can afford to lose and you've not invested your life savings in watches..

Up until now, I have always treated every watch purchase as "extra spending money" just like for a big vacation or the deprecation on a 3rd car purchase.

Going into it, I always expected to lose money.

I think it is only in the last few years that the terms investment and return of capital have come into the watch world.

[Time Out]

I would definitely offload pieces if you are not wearing them. The market is getting softer by the minute.. and that is not speculation. If you bought a Platona for 150k I would be trying to offload that as quick as possible.

I have been watching Meteorite BLRO's and they were 100k on the second. I have been watching them trade G2G for 70k and they are also falling pretty quick.

[brandrea]

If I did a net worth statement, I wouldn’t included my watches in it … it’s just not how I view them. YMMV

[Mystro]

Originally Posted by Time Out

I would definitely offload pieces if you are not wearing them. The market is getting softer by the minute.. and that is not speculation. If you bought a Platona for 150k I would be trying to offload that as quick as possible.

I have been watching Meteorite BLRO's and they were 100k on the second. I have been watching them trade G2G for 70k and they are also falling pretty quick.

What happens when the watch market corrects back up and you sold at the first sign of the market dipping? Better to have the stomach and ride it out as time is your friend if you absolutely must equate what your watches are worth.
I learned this when gold took a major hit and then eventually went back up when the economy turned around as it always does. Wait until China is back in the watch game and see how fast prices head north again. Watches are not investments but a hobby to be enjoyed. Let your kids worry about how much your watches are worth when your dead.
This is a philosophy of life mentality more than equating it just to watchs.

[samuel019]

Originally Posted by CHRONOLEX

There is a lot of talk about Rolex market peaking, cratering, whatever phrase you want. Certainly also the theme of YouTube watch channels of late. There are people happy about this, and some upset or scared about a collapse.

For those who have recently acquired pieces at peaky market pricing (not retail), are you looking at your purchase any differently? Any thoughts about selling now with potential to re-buy it at a later time, if market further softens?

I bought several heavy pieces last year at pretty full prices (BNIB at gray) and I have been curious about selling while I'm still in the money. I'm not really a seller of watches and I always buy to hold forever, but on some of the stuff that I don't truly love (or bought on impulse), it's certainly a temptation.

Others thinking about this?

I think it’s a topic that a lot of Grey market buyers have thought about as a of late and maybe even the same day they bought it.

I touched on my own situation with a reply on the infamous “Daytona hits 50k” thread that won’t die and may end up being the most viewed and commented thread of all time on TRF Man have things changed around here. But anyway…

Out of my entire collection, quite a few, I’m down to 2 Grey market purchases. 2 pieces bought that had trades where I got a premium and only did those 2 because my chances of scoring from A D where slim to never. If these 2 tank and bottom out will I GAF? Well I won’t love it but I DO love em both enough that I won’t let it ruin my opinion of what I did.

FWIW they get a ton of wrist time as evident in our daily WRUW threads and I knew I had no other choice. As in I loved the watches enough that the money didn’t matter to a certain extent. I do look at my “net exposure” and now that I have them I will not be adding any more Grey purchases. It’s A D or bust for any future incomings. A 505 or the new Platinum DD.

Long story short I’m sooooooooooo worn out with the whole Rolex Grey market pricing, A D games/hoops, and just overall bulls***.

[CHRONOLEX]

Originally Posted by brandrea

If I did a net worth statement, I wouldn’t included my watches in it … it’s just not how I view them. YMMV

Ha, me neither. I don't count any hard assets at all actually.

[CHRONOLEX]

Originally Posted by samuel019

I think it’s a topic that a lot of Grey market buyers have thought about as a of late and maybe even the same day they bought it.

I touched on my own situation with a reply on the infamous “Daytona hits 50k” thread that won’t die and may end up being the most viewed and commented thread of all time on TRF Man have things changed around here. But anyway…

Out of my entire collection, quite a few, I’m down to 2 Grey market purchases. 2 pieces bought that had trades where I got a premium and only did those 2 because my chances of scoring from A D where slim to never. If these 2 tank and bottom out will I GAF? Well I won’t love it but I DO love em both enough that I won’t let it ruin my opinion of what I did.

FWIW they get a ton of wrist time as evident in our daily WRUW threads and I knew I had no other choice. As in I loved the watches enough that the money didn’t matter to a certain extent. I do look at my “net exposure” and now that I have them I will not be adding any more Grey purchases. It’s A D or bust for any future incomings. A 505 or the new Platinum DD.

Long story short I’m sooooooooooo worn out with the whole Rolex Grey market pricing, A D games/hoops, and just overall bulls***.

Thank you for your comment

[Time Out]

Originally Posted by Mystro

What happens when the watch market corrects back up and you sold at the first sign of the market dipping?

LOL. Nobody is telling you to sell.

Back pack flippers and new money greys will bring the watch market to its knees whether you and I like it or not. There was never any real end users paying almost 40k for BLRO's or 53K for Panda's... (etc etc etc)

Maybe some new money entering the market was buying here and there but real enthusiasts were not. The only thing some real enthusiasts enjoyed was watching the perceived values of their Rolex's go up. The freshly minted millionaire walked into a grey and got smoked for a hot piece. Likely his only watch and likely wont care what the market does.

[samuel019]

Originally Posted by GK12345EMAIL

Up until now, I have always treated every watch purchase as "extra spending money" just like for a big vacation or the deprecation on a 3rd car purchase.

Going into it, I always expected to lose money.

I think it is only in the last few years that the terms investment and return of capital have come into the watch world.

THIS!!

Same here. I come from a time when buying from your local A D was the worst thing you can do in terms of losing money.

I have always looked at my “luxury” watch purchases as money lost. As in it was a “luxury” for me to be able to spend said amount on a freaking watch. At the end of the day that’s all it is. A watch!!

Oddly enough in those times the hobby was actually A LOT more fun and enjoyable. Think about that for a second

[CHRONOLEX]

Originally Posted by Time Out

I would definitely offload pieces if you are not wearing them. The market is getting softer by the minute.. and that is not speculation. If you bought a Platona for 150k I would be trying to offload that as quick as possible.

I have been watching Meteorite BLRO's and they were 100k on the second. I have been watching them trade G2G for 70k and they are also falling pretty quick.

I think you understand the point of my post. It wasn't an invitation to compare net worth's and ability to not GAF about losing money. I was asking a simple question, which is if you recently bought watches at a huge premium over retail and aren't wearing them, is anyone thinking about selling them?

I made a post in the Patek section about something similar. I bought a 5167A for about $50k last summer, never wore it, prices went way up and have started to come back down. Before they fell any farther, while I was still in the money, I decided to trade it for a new WG Smurf that I came across plus cash back. Good trade for me.

See, innocent topic for conversation.

[Mystro]

Originally Posted by Time Out

LOL. Nobody is telling you to sell.

Back pack flippers and new money greys will bring the watch market to its knees whether you and I like it or not. There was never any real end users paying almost 40k for BLRO's or 53K for Panda's... (etc etc etc)

Maybe some new money entering the market was buying here and there but real enthusiasts were not. The only thing some real enthusiasts enjoyed was watching the perceived values of their Rolex's go up. The freshly minted millionaire walked into a grey and got smoked for a hot piece. Likely his only watch and likely wont care what the market does.

Agree,
Let the newbies trying to make a quick buck worry about market corrections if they are leveraged so close. They can go back to flipping Jordan’s. The WIS enthusiast will be wearing their purchase loud and proud regardless what they paid making memories with them on their wrist.

[TheWatchmen]

Originally Posted by Mystro

I’ll clarify it for you with what I believe the spirit of the post is:
If you can’t afford to lose a a bit of money to begin with, you have no business playing in the luxury watch game. Watches are not investments. Same with boats, luxury cars, or any other luxury purchase. Honestly, $50k either up or down is couch cushion money for a lot of people and certainly not life changing money for most. That said, in the long run the Rolex watches will probably be worth more money even buying at the current top of the market right now if you absolutely must equate every purchase to value for money. There is the rub with many, the NEED to equate every purchase as “value for money”. If everything must be boiled down to value for money, then the “luxury” is not a part of your true lifestyle. Vacations, food, etc.. generally will suck if “value for money” is you goal.
We are talking Rolex watches and not seven figure Real estate. I certainly would pay $20k more for a luxury watch rather than to play AD games and wait 5 years or worse yet not get anything.
In the end you can’t take it with you and most people at a certain age and success in life won’t remember paying $20k more for a watch even a year later.

Well put. If you understand that you may lose money if you don’t hang onto the watch long enough before deciding to sell it, even if that span is say 15 years, then you may want to reassess your priorities.

The cool thing with Rolex in particular is, if you actually do keep the watch long enough, it will more than likely be worth more at some point.

Once you take out the value proposition and obvious irrationality for buying a $50k wrist watch, justifying it becomes easy, provided you have the money and actually do love owning and wearing the thing.

If you understand you might lose a big chunk of that money should you decide to offload it before it appreciates, but that chunk of money is no big deal to you then go for it.

I think that there is such a massive disparity between members on this forum wealth-wise that understanding another’s perspective can be difficult. I myself am very lucky to have owned a few cool pieces in my time but have always traded up over the years and never owned more than 3 at a time because I couldn’t afford it (or rotate often enough to justify more even if I could).

There are members here who own millions in watches alone, forget total net worth lol. I clearly have a different perspective than someone with that kind of wealth, but I don’t hate on them either and tell them their rationale makes no sense because they may stand to lose money, which is likely low on their list of problems.

As long as you are putting in the work to aspire to be happy in your own right, that’s what matters and no wrist trinket alone will ever give you that.

[CHRONOLEX]

Originally Posted by Time Out

LOL. Nobody is telling you to sell.

Back pack flippers and new money greys will bring the watch market to its knees whether you and I like it or not. There was never any real end users paying almost 40k for BLRO's or 53K for Panda's... (etc etc etc)

Maybe some new money entering the market was buying here and there but real enthusiasts were not. The only thing some real enthusiasts enjoyed was watching the perceived values of their Rolex's go up. The freshly minted millionaire walked into a grey and got smoked for a hot piece. Likely his only watch and likely wont care what the market does.

Lot of truth here I think. My dealer friends tell me the spoken/unspoken problem is that there aren't enough real wrists out there to soak up all this inventory and everyone is ultra long inventory right now.

[CHRONOLEX]

Originally Posted by samuel019

THIS!!

Same here. I come from a time when buying from your local A D was the worst thing in terms of losing money.

I have always looked at my “luxury” watch purchases as money lost. As in it was a “luxury” for me to be able to spend said amount on a freaking watch. At the end of the day that’s all it is. A watch!!

Oddly enough in those times the hobby was actually A LOT more fun and enjoyable. Think about that for a second

Good points here. I too remember the time when people would try on at the AD and then walk out and call their dealer and source the same watch for 30-40% off. Someone on here recently posted a true comment that there was a time you would go in on a weekend, try on the watch, wear it around for awhile, then say you needed to go home and think about it, and by Monday if the watch hadn't sold you would get a call from the AD asking what it would take to earn your business.

[Gab27]

I purchased my watch with the assumption that it's value would flatline to next to nothing. I absolutely could not and would not have spent this much money on a watch if I was not comfortable with that assumption. With that assumption, the price of the watch is simply money I spent on enjoyment without any expectation of return.

So, in short, I am not looking at my purchase any differently.

[rolex16]

Yet people were on here discussing discount amounts, etc. over 15 years ago. Sorry to break it to you guys, I’ve been here since 2006 and people have been looking for the best deal since I joined. The idea being insinuated that somehow real rich people don’t care what they pay is absurd. That’s why people used to negotiate with their ADs. Multi-millionaires too guys. It doesn’t have to be life changing for many to want to squeeze out the best price. In fact, I would argue many successful people in business, law, etc. like the challenge and feeling of working the best deal, whether in the boardroom or the showroom.