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Old 5 May 2022, 09:27 PM   #31
Tay821
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If would have paid anything near to 6 figures for Jumbo I would realistically be disappointed after a while. Same would probably be for 5711. 100k for 5740 as PC in WG ok at retail, at 300k its in 5270, 5370 territory so again doesnt make much sense…and not sure if both jumbo or nautilus can be called special when there is already so many of them.


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5740 is 145k at retail now...but I get where you're going. 145 for 5740 or 145 for 5711, I know what I'm picking
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Old 5 May 2022, 11:21 PM   #32
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5740 is 145k at retail now...but I get where you're going. 145 for 5740 or 145 for 5711, I know what I'm picking
But that’s assuming you get the 5740 at retail. I can assume someone who got a 5740 allocation probably would have a 5711 at retail already. So it should be $30 vs $145. Or we should use grey vs grey price?
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Old 5 May 2022, 11:39 PM   #33
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5740 is 145k at retail now...but I get where you're going. 145 for 5740 or 145 for 5711, I know what I'm picking

Wow…was around 100k EURs? with VAT…crazy times…


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Old 6 May 2022, 12:20 AM   #34
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Wow…was around 100k EURs? with VAT…crazy times…


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It was EUR 107k in 2018 and is 129k in 2022, both with German VAT.
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Old 6 May 2022, 02:23 AM   #35
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It was EUR 107k in 2018 and is 129k in 2022, both with German VAT.

Thanks, make sense adjusted for inflation and PM price increases


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Old 6 May 2022, 06:14 AM   #36
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But that’s assuming you get the 5740 at retail. I can assume someone who got a 5740 allocation probably would have a 5711 at retail already. So it should be $30 vs $145. Or we should use grey vs grey price?
Partially agree here. I now folks who were offered 5740 but not 5711. The population that can stomach the 5740 is much smaller than a 30k watch.
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Old 6 May 2022, 08:15 AM   #37
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If you bought these watches to enjoy (vs speculate or flip), it shouldn't really matter if you bought at the parabolic price, elevated price, or even lucky enough retail price...

For what it's worth even considering at the sky high prices from a couple months back, or late last year, I could not and still cannot think of any watch I'd rather wear and enjoy than my 5712a and 5980a, looking at any model from any watch brand (Patek included) personally

Irrespective of the rapper or Instagram hype, the feel of the bracelet itself, intangible feeling of the Nautilus on my wrist, robustness of the steel, the movement on display, and overall design has me smitten. 5167a was awesome, but felt a bit casual to me. 5905 and 5205 showed me that I don't really enjoy leather strap dress watches as elegant as they are to look at, especially in the warmer climates I reside in and since I don't dress formally for work..

With Patek making less of them (reducing the SS line via discontinuations and how they are low production), hard to see values plummeting. If they do, maybe I'd be able to enjoy mine more and be less conscious of wearing mine in public. But I'd guess Patek is likely to continue the trend moving away from SS Nautilus, given how they want to be more than a one-watch company and continue to work in "noble" precious metals with the explosion of focus on the SS Nautilus and 5711a... thinking that will always support prices

Just my 2 cents as an owner, YMMV!
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Old 7 May 2022, 11:28 AM   #38
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If you bought these watches to enjoy (vs speculate or flip), it shouldn't really matter if you bought at the parabolic price, elevated price, or even lucky enough retail price...

For what it's worth even considering at the sky high prices from a couple months back, or late last year, I could not and still cannot think of any watch I'd rather wear and enjoy than my 5712a and 5980a, looking at any model from any watch brand (Patek included) personally

Irrespective of the rapper or Instagram hype, the feel of the bracelet itself, intangible feeling of the Nautilus on my wrist, robustness of the steel, the movement on display, and overall design has me smitten. 5167a was awesome, but felt a bit casual to me. 5905 and 5205 showed me that I don't really enjoy leather strap dress watches as elegant as they are to look at, especially in the warmer climates I reside in and since I don't dress formally for work..

With Patek making less of them (reducing the SS line via discontinuations and how they are low production), hard to see values plummeting. If they do, maybe I'd be able to enjoy mine more and be less conscious of wearing mine in public. But I'd guess Patek is likely to continue the trend moving away from SS Nautilus, given how they want to be more than a one-watch company and continue to work in "noble" precious metals with the explosion of focus on the SS Nautilus and 5711a... thinking that will always support prices

Just my 2 cents as an owner, YMMV!

5712a is my favorite watch ever. It is so good.


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Old 9 May 2022, 07:12 AM   #39
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5131p gas gone up by 20-30%, perhaps rarity and quality will win

Over hypefest
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Old 9 May 2022, 08:07 AM   #40
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I hope prices go back to what they were 10 years ago.

Under $20k for a two tone 3800.
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Old 9 May 2022, 08:47 AM   #41
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After seeing some recent auction results, price isn't dropping all that much. Interest is just shifting/spilling to other models and brands.
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Old 9 May 2022, 11:58 AM   #42
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I don’t see either of these two as inherently collectible due to being discontinued. The 16202 is virtually indistinguishable from the 15202 and there are enough nautilus variation that will be in production and even aquanaut are very similar premiums. Plenty of demand of course, but unlikely we cross over and people only want some neo vintage AP/Patek because the current collection can’t compete with 5711.

Therefore, I think it comes down to: is interest in watches going to keep pace with production? Or are the same people going to keep buying small variations of the same 5 watches? (Or some combination). I think there is a possibility of burn out but that’s probably my bias (there are “funner” ways to blow money at a point.

I also think it’s unlikely these going to be non correlated or negatively correlated assets.
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Old 10 May 2022, 07:43 AM   #43
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It was EUR 107k in 2018 and is 129k in 2022, both with German VAT.
Is it because of the CHF getting stronger? Because in CHF, it does not seems that the watches increased that much...
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Old 10 May 2022, 02:44 PM   #44
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5711, white dial, sold for $170k at auction (Phillips) this week.
Enough said ...
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Old 10 May 2022, 05:06 PM   #45
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5711, white dial, sold for $170k at auction (Phillips) this week.
Enough said ...

https://www.phillips.com/detail/pate...pe/NY080121/2B
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Old 10 May 2022, 11:31 PM   #46
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That was 2021.
I was referring to this week May 2022: https://www.phillips.com/detail/pate...e/CH080122/236
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Old 10 May 2022, 11:54 PM   #47
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That was 2021.
I was referring to this week May 2022: https://www.phillips.com/detail/pate...e/CH080122/236
Yes. I was simply pointing out that ”enough said” isn’t really the whole picture if there’s been a drop from $227K to $170K in 6 months with the same ref, same auction house, same high-strung setting with well-heeled clientele, etc.
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Old 11 May 2022, 12:23 AM   #48
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Originally Posted by sampelligrino View Post
If you bought these watches to enjoy (vs speculate or flip), it shouldn't really matter if you bought at the parabolic price, elevated price, or even lucky enough retail price...

For what it's worth even considering at the sky high prices from a couple months back, or late last year, I could not and still cannot think of any watch I'd rather wear and enjoy than my 5712a and 5980a, looking at any model from any watch brand (Patek included) personally

Irrespective of the rapper or Instagram hype, the feel of the bracelet itself, intangible feeling of the Nautilus on my wrist, robustness of the steel, the movement on display, and overall design has me smitten. 5167a was awesome, but felt a bit casual to me. 5905 and 5205 showed me that I don't really enjoy leather strap dress watches as elegant as they are to look at, especially in the warmer climates I reside in and since I don't dress formally for work..

With Patek making less of them (reducing the SS line via discontinuations and how they are low production), hard to see values plummeting. If they do, maybe I'd be able to enjoy mine more and be less conscious of wearing mine in public. But I'd guess Patek is likely to continue the trend moving away from SS Nautilus, given how they want to be more than a one-watch company and continue to work in "noble" precious metals with the explosion of focus on the SS Nautilus and 5711a... thinking that will always support prices

Just my 2 cents as an owner, YMMV!
I bought my 5712A in 2011 at a small discount "before it was famous". I'm not super-rich, and the price tag was a fair chunk for me. I agree it is an awesome watch, totally gorgeous, but unfortunately (or fortunately, depending on how you see it) the spiralling value and easy recognition have made it far too valuable for me to wear outside the house. I don't fancy getting attacked for my watch in the street, quite frankly. So, I am reluctantly going to let it go at some point, since I can't relax wearing it any more.

I agree that values will probably rise further in the long-term, especially if it's axed.
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Old 11 May 2022, 12:27 AM   #49
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I bought my 5712A in 2011 at a small discount "before it was famous". I'm not super-rich, and the price tag was a fair chunk for me. I agree it is an awesome watch, totally gorgeous, but unfortunately (or fortunately, depending on how you see it) the spiralling value and easy recognition have made it far too valuable for me to wear outside the house. I don't fancy getting attacked for my watch in the street, quite frankly. So, I am reluctantly going to let it go at some point, since I can't relax wearing it any more.

I agree that values will probably rise further in the long-term, especially if it's axed.
Well you should’ve sold it three months ago then. Just an FYI. The vast majority of thieves in the world have no idea what Patek is let alone a 5712A. If you really do love it then get it insured for the value that it’s worth and wear it while wearing a long sleeve shirt in what you consider questionable areas.
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Old 11 May 2022, 12:37 AM   #50
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Well you should’ve sold it three months ago then. Just an FYI. The vast majority of thieves in the world have no idea what Patek is let alone a 5712A. If you really do love it then get it insured for the value that it’s worth and wear it while wearing a long sleeve shirt in what you consider questionable areas.
Why should I have sold it 3 months ago, it's still in production? Specialist watch thieves know exactly what they are looking for, and the Nautilus can't be mistaken for anything else. Just an FYI.
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Old 11 May 2022, 12:40 AM   #51
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Why should I have sold it 3 months ago, it's still in production?
Because it was at its peak value three months ago. Just judging by your recent posts the prices dropping seems to be of concern to you.

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Specialist watch thieves know exactly what they are looking for, and the Nautilus can't be mistaken for anything else. Just an FYI.
Yeah k
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Old 11 May 2022, 01:09 AM   #52
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Because it was at its peak value three months ago. Just judging by your recent posts the prices dropping seems to be of concern to you.
I'm waiting for it to be discontinued, I'm guessing maybe next year, or the year after that, so today's prices (and the pricing three months ago) is irrelevant.

I assume you refer to the thread in the Rolex main forum - my only concern is the whole truth, and not just edited highlights. Black Ceramic Subs are apparently not affected by Daytona prices falling. I think that's interesting, not that I own either.
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Old 11 May 2022, 01:50 AM   #53
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just stating the obvious to most here, but since market timing is close to impossible, using a portfolio based approach for volatility reduction is the only solution to this age old problem.

i find it incredibly comforting not having to care where stocks, bonds, real estate, hedge funds, US Dollar, Swiss francs, gold, crypto, art, watches, cars, etc. go ... if they all go down at the same time, our physical belongings will be the least of our worries
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Old 11 May 2022, 03:23 PM   #54
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A sealed 5712 and 5711 sold for 214k chf and 252k chf respectively at phillips.

Sealed versions have a premium but its the highest I've seen these two models command and definitely higher than a few months ago even if we take into account a premium of say 20% for being sealed.

https://www.phillips.com/detail/pate...e/CH080122/286

https://www.phillips.com/detail/pate...e/CH080122/291
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Old 11 May 2022, 03:55 PM   #55
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A sealed 5712 and 5711 sold for 214k chf and 252k chf respectively at phillips.

Sealed versions have a premium but its the highest I've seen these two models command and definitely higher than a few months ago even if we take into account a premium of say 20% for being sealed.

https://www.phillips.com/detail/pate...e/CH080122/286

https://www.phillips.com/detail/pate...e/CH080122/291
To me it seems like a great marketing strategy to keep the auction results up to maintain value in whatever market situation. High-profile and so easy to do.
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Old 11 May 2022, 04:48 PM   #56
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A sealed 5712 and 5711 sold for 214k chf and 252k chf respectively at phillips.

Sealed versions have a premium but its the highest I've seen these two models command and definitely higher than a few months ago even if we take into account a premium of say 20% for being sealed.

https://www.phillips.com/detail/pate...e/CH080122/286

https://www.phillips.com/detail/pate...e/CH080122/291
Let me help you out... Unsealed 5712/1A sold for USD 295k in the December 2021 Phillips auction in New York. Unsealed 5711 blue was up there as well then. Just to add, at the time you could have bought them a lot cheaper elsewhere...
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Old 11 May 2022, 06:28 PM   #57
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A sealed 5712 and 5711 sold for 214k chf and 252k chf respectively at phillips.

Sealed versions have a premium but its the highest I've seen these two models command and definitely higher than a few months ago even if we take into account a premium of say 20% for being sealed.

https://www.phillips.com/detail/pate...e/CH080122/286

https://www.phillips.com/detail/pate...e/CH080122/291
Uh…

https://www.phillips.com/detail/pate...pe/NY080121/2A

https://www.phillips.com/detail/pate...ppe/NY080121/4
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Old 11 May 2022, 06:40 PM   #58
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I stand corrected. Those December prices are insane..
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Old 11 May 2022, 07:01 PM   #59
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The nautilus line from Patek is no doubt the most hyped watch in history and the 5711 is the king of that hype. I don’t think there’s a human being on the planet that could logically explain to me how a watch not even worth 20K as far as the manufacture is concerned neither through complications, style or quality of craftsmanship or materials could have gone even one quarter as far as it’s gone. I bet you management at Patek is embarrassed about it and that’s why they discontinued it. It’s like a man with new money sitting down at a dinner table with sophisticated wealthy people and drinking from the finger bowl thinking it’s soup. The only thing to do to save the embarrassment of this poor man at the next evenings dinner is to just not have the finger bowl on the dinner table. That lady‘s and gentleman is what the 5711 is. The finger bowl at the high end dinner table.
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Old 11 May 2022, 08:29 PM   #60
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The nautilus line from Patek is no doubt the most hyped watch in history and the 5711 is the king of that hype. I don’t think there’s a human being on the planet that could logically explain to me how a watch not even worth 20K as far as the manufacture is concerned neither through complications, style or quality of craftsmanship or materials could have gone even one quarter as far as it’s gone. I bet you management at Patek is embarrassed about it and that’s why they discontinued it. It’s like a man with new money sitting down at a dinner table with sophisticated wealthy people and drinking from the finger bowl thinking it’s soup. The only thing to do to save the embarrassment of this poor man at the next evenings dinner is to just not have the finger bowl on the dinner table. That lady‘s and gentleman is what the 5711 is. The finger bowl at the high end dinner table.
Embarrased enough to press out two hype beast editions in the -014 green and the Tiffany 170th after announcing its discontinuation?

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