Rolex bubble

[904VT]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Sure, why not

Well increase in real purchasing power certainly isn't happening.

The world is using stale prices currently for all goods unfortunately. Anchoring and adjustment bias as we all are anchored to the idea, that Price shifts are cyclical currently when higher probability is that they are structural in nature going forward.

[173rdabn]

A product is worth only what someone is willing to pay. Quite simple and doesn't require long handwringing comments asking WHY.

[askdanny]

Originally Posted by JRell

Nobody is buying at MSRP or nobody is buying to keep and wear/enjoy them? I know I do both and so do many others here. If I couldn’t get at msrp no way would I buy Rolex. If I didn’t love and enjoy them I wouldn’t even be on this forum.

Just curious: back when the grey was cheaper than MSRP, would you still just buy at retail… or would you buy both?

[Llamathurst]

Personally, I think things are softening. I just mothballed my RG Rootbeer and Milguass Z Blue. No one really wanted them.

My winder (I know, I know) has 8 spaces. I wanted some collection diversity, so a couple of Rolexes went into the aux watchbox where unworn watches go to die. Basically, I'm fed up with the company's shit and have moved on to other brands.

I think I'm emblematic of the typical collector. Many great watches and increasingly bored of a single brand heavy collection.

[JRell]

Originally Posted by askdanny

Just curious: back when the grey was cheaper than MSRP, would you still just buy at retail… or would you buy both?

The only time I ever bought grey was years ago when I kinda wanted an omega speedmaster to try it out, but didn’t love it, so I got a used one. Never trusted it was authentic and sold it. Would never buy a Rolex grey regardless now.

[vika01]

Originally Posted by jets

It’s like Bitcoin. The only reason it has value is because people agree that it does. As long as Rolex tightens supply this is how it will be.

If you’re asking me I’d say Rolex is exactly where they want to be. No more discounts. No more dust collecting watches in showcases. PM pieces are moving like they never have. They even changed the warranty cards so a person can’t see the store it was bought or even the country. Now when it’s bought second hand another persons name is no longer in it. Demand is meteoric. So yeah if it is a bubble it’s made of see-through iron.


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Definitely not like Bitcoin. Rolex actually contains real material and craftsmanship. And it’s a physical object. Can’t compare with a hyped up internet currency.

[28mm]

Originally Posted by dontbeshort

Anyone else fed up with this subject matter? Administrators - do your job and move this thread to a new section called .. “What’s it worth?”

There was a thread like this yesterday but it was very informed and spoke very clearly with examples of how the market has slowed considerably and will continue to slow.

I woke up today and it was deleted.

While it was an informed and more interesting than most of it's type, I agree that there are too many threads and discussion of valuations and market conditions.

But like a trainwreck, most can't just drive by..myself included!

[Chris]

Originally Posted by 28mm

There was a thread like this yesterday but it was very informed and spoke very clearly with examples of how the market has slowed considerably and will continue to slow.

I woke up today and it was deleted.

While it was an informed and more interesting than most of it's type, I agree that there are too many threads and discussion of valuations and market conditions.

But like a trainwreck, most can't just drive by..myself included!

The thread you mentioned didnt seem to be well infirmed at all; seemed to be based around conspiracy theories of greys trying to raise prices!!

[28mm]

Originally Posted by Chris

The thread you mentioned didnt seem to be well infirmed at all; seemed to be based around conspiracy theories of greys trying to raise prices!!

well informed conspiracy theories then!

[Chris]

Originally Posted by 28mm

well informed conspiracy theories then!

Ill give u that

[NYG1121]

We are already in a massive correction. Lets see where the bottom is

[JSCP]

Rolex is for rich/ disposable income people. So no they will stay hard to get and grey prices higher than mrsp. My be lower on certain models, but not on: Daytona, GMT’s, SkyD Blue, DD40 olive dials, and Sub Date, DJ blue disks, new green dial.

[ArtNouveau]

Originally Posted by JRell

Nobody is buying at MSRP or nobody is buying to keep and wear/enjoy them? I know I do both and so do many others here. If I couldn’t get at msrp no way would I buy Rolex. If I didn’t love and enjoy them I wouldn’t even be on this forum.

I agree with you, the other guy sounds like 90% of the commenters on Rolex Instagram posts.

[Nairn1980]

Originally Posted by dontbeshort

Anyone else fed up with this subject matter? Administrators - do your job and move this thread to a new section called .. “What’s it worth?”

I’m sure they do their best.
They can’t always have eyes everywhere

[fwhawk]

Time will tell, but ifyou really think it is "normal" for watches (or any other commodity made in significant numbers) to sell for five times MSRP in the secondary market, I think you are delusional. That is the classic definition of a bubble. Google "Ferrari bubble in the '90s" if you want to see what can happen. Prices tripled and quadrupled over a period of time, then suddenly crashed. The phenomenon was described as "the greater fool theory". The thinking was that it doesn't matter what I pay for this product today. There will always be someone who will pay more tomorrow.. Once prices started to fall, the thinking became why would I pay that today when the asking price is going to be less next week?

[htc8p]

what is the amount a buyer would be willing to pay? what are other alternatives out there?

there are so many factors affecting these basic questions

luxury goods may be the ones to go when all hell breaks loose

[Sandpit]

Originally Posted by JSCP

Rolex is for rich/ disposable income people. So no they will stay hard to get and grey prices higher than mrsp. My be lower on certain models, but not on: Daytona, GMT’s, SkyD Blue, DD40 olive dials, and Sub Date, DJ blue disks, new green dial.

To be honest I think this is an outdated way of seeing the Rolex world. It should be the case that they’re bought with disposable income, but it’s just not the case. I know plenty of people that are spending large percentages of their incomes on watches. In fact, there was a conversation in a group I was in (which I left) in which the majority thought it was ok to spend 25% of total annual income in watches.

We’re not dealing with rational people anymore. 25% is utterly insane!!

[Nauti]

So many things driving up prices

The usual suspects = us lot watch lovers adding to collections, with Rolex production levels at 1m we alone would eat up all supply on a rolling basis.

New to market the Instas & TikTok market who have massive disposable or borrowed cash and want to display it more so than Lambos.

The investors, they have read in all the financial news that watches have outperformed houses and stock markets and upon sale will be tax efficient, they don’t necessarily like watches but its no different to a bar of gold and its portable and saleable if some of them have their accounts frozen.

And so we have a market with huge demand maybe 10 or 20 customers for each watch sure current events war, inflation, interest rates might make some candidates drop out but if 50% drop out thats still 5 or 10 buyers in a queue for every Rolex, PP, AP, Lange, VC..

And as we live in an impatient age nobody wants to wait in the Grill Park at McDonalds, consumer’s pay whatever is required to get it NOW ! And they console themselves with the thought that even if they pay 20 or 30 k over if they wait 12 months its worth even more, so whilst your new 40k car might drop 5 or 10k in 12 months the smart money bought a Daytona or Overseas and took an Uber.

I don’t see it ending but it might have a pause whilst people learn to stomach the current ‘New Market Price’…. 12 months ago “116500 hits 25-30k” thats insane surely a bubble ?

[Chris]

Originally Posted by Sandpit

To be honest I think this is an outdated way of seeing the Rolex world. It should be the case that they’re bought with disposable income, but it’s just not the case. I know plenty of people that are spending large percentages of their incomes on watches. In fact, there was a conversation in a group I was in (which I left) in which the majority thought it was ok to spend 25% of total annual income in watches.

We’re not dealing with rational people anymore. 25% is utterly insane!!

[bp1000]

If you care about wether its a bubble you are not a true watch collector.

Controversial, but the way I see it.

I'd rather the people who are in it for the money and fame, find something else so I can get the pieces I want.

[Nairn1980]

Originally Posted by bp1000

If you care about wether its a bubble you are not a true watch collector.

Controversial, but the way I see it.

I'd rather the people who are in it for the money and fame, find something else so I can get the pieces I want.

This in an ideal world

[syahriltaher]

Originally Posted by jets

It’s like Bitcoin. The only reason it has value is because people agree that it does. As long as Rolex tightens supply this is how it will be.

If you’re asking me I’d say Rolex is exactly where they want to be. No more discounts. No more dust collecting watches in showcases. PM pieces are moving like they never have. They even changed the warranty cards so a person can’t see the store it was bought or even the country. Now when it’s bought second hand another persons name is no longer in it. Demand is meteoric. So yeah if it is a bubble it’s made of see-through iron.


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This

[tudk]

Buy for the love of the watch.

If you feel good wearing your timepiece that’s all that matters.

[BroncoOne]

No bubble. As long as there are more people with money that want a Rolex than there are watches made, market price will be at a premium.

Rolex doesn’t seem to be in danger of devaluing it’s brand to stifle demand. In fact, the opposite is happening

[Shaitan]

Originally Posted by NYG1121

We are already in a massive correction. Lets see where the bottom is

Massive correction? Not sure what you’re looking at but nothing has gotten cheap in recent weak. You’re talking 2k less for a Panda? Yeah massive


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[1665fan]

Originally Posted by BroncoOne

No bubble. As long as there are more people with money that want a Rolex than there are watches made, market price will be at a premium.

Rolex doesn’t seem to be in danger of devaluing it’s brand to stifle demand. In fact, the opposite is happening

Sounds about right!

[NYG1121]

Originally Posted by Shaitan

Massive correction? Not sure what you’re looking at but nothing has gotten cheap in recent weak. You’re talking 2k less for a Panda? Yeah massive


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That is not the whole story. Go try selling any piece to any dealer right now and let me know what you find out.

[Shaitan]

Originally Posted by NYG1121

That is not the whole story. Go try selling any piece to any dealer right now and let me know what you find out.

Bought this yday and offered to trade in my Batman which I hate. Was offered £19k for my 2021 Oyster. I call that very fair


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[alphadweller]

We might see more corrections in the near future as central banks take measures to contain the inflation. Also, Rolex seem to have plans to increasse production, which could improve availability at ADs. However, I don't see prices crashing. There's just too much demand.

[dwaine99]

Originally Posted by allen993

But nobody's doing that now...

I paid MSRP two weeks ago.....