Rolex bubble

[Shaitan]

Originally Posted by alphadweller

Can't remember on top of my head, read it somewhere.

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=827031


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[HMHM]

I would say yes, certain watches are in a bubble. But I don’t expect it to be less than MSRP, more likely there will be some correction.

[Shaitan]

Originally Posted by eijiboy

We are having a correction. No more 50k panda


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Cheapest one on Chrono UK: 51k USD, for a 2016


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[Tach24LMS]

Unfortunately for me, hard to buy at MSRP, when the two watches I want from Rolex are discontinued models.

I have a 116334 DJ2
I want a PM WG Daytona 116509 and a GMT 116710LN.
That’s it for Rolex in my collection, and I’m perfectly happy.
The only thing I’d consider would be a Platinum DD ice blue, but doubt I’d spend the money on that with other things I’d wear more frequently. It’s a gorgeous watch though, I’d love to have. But realistically, I just want the 3. The DJ is classy enough for dress occasions, but versatile enough for T-shirt.

The other two are my favorite Rolex watches made.

The others in my collection are other brands.

[eijiboy]

Originally Posted by Shaitan

Cheapest one on Chrono UK: 51k USD, for a 2016


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You got to expand your search. Chrono is always inflated.


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[chocopeluche]

Why does this thread get to stay around when others get locked and removed ?

[Tqmb79]

There’s a panda posted in the classifieds for 46 and a black steel Daytona with ceramic for 39k now. They def went down a bit it seems. I bet it’s temporary and they climb back up

[Jojomojo]

The air's coming off from the baloon

[zagazar]

whatccharts is the best source to check current trend in price direction for all watches.

[Nairn1980]

Originally Posted by eijiboy

We are having a correction. No more 50k panda


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I wouldn’t say no more 50k.
If that’s a worn 2019 an unworn 2022 will be listing nearer 50k.

There will be small variances along the way.

[alphadweller]

Originally Posted by Shaitan

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=827031

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Thanks! Other than the new facility being built in Bienne, Rolex also bought another building from Patek Philippe in Plan-les-Ouates (Geneva outskirts) in 2019.

https://www.pme.ch/actualites/2019/0...patek-philippe

[eijiboy]

Originally Posted by Nairn1980

I wouldn’t say no more 50k.
If that’s a worn 2019 an unworn 2022 will be listing nearer 50k.

There will be small variances along the way.

Here you go



Still better than $50k

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[RobJohnFL]

The bubble is slowly deflating

[rolexpatek363]

Originally Posted by Shaitan

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=827031

There's no evidence that Rolex is building a new factory outside of this video from an obscure YouTuber. He doesn't say how he knows this, and I think it's unlikely as their current factory is still very new:

@21:20 --

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LlG5605eiOM

[Shaitan]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

There's no evidence that Rolex is building a new factory outside of this video from an obscure YouTuber. He doesn't say how he knows this, and I think it's unlikely as their current factory is still very new:

@21:20 --

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LlG5605eiOM

If you go to the end of the thread I linked - there’s another linked thread - a guy posts pictures of the building site. He says he’s local - it’s post #23 in that thread


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[Shaitan]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

There's no evidence that Rolex is building a new factory outside of this video from an obscure YouTuber. He doesn't say how he knows this, and I think it's unlikely as their current factory is still very new:

@21:20 --

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LlG5605eiOM

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[rolexpatek363]

Originally Posted by Shaitan

If you go to the end of the thread I linked - there’s another linked thread - a guy posts pictures of the building site. He says he’s local - it’s post #23 in that thread

OK, thanks, but I'm still not sure this is actually true. If Rolex were building a new factory to increase output by 25%, surely the industry journalists would have reported and commented on it, but I can't find anything about it outside of a solitary YT video and this forum.

[Henrimontgomery]

I’ve sold a few models recently, but only because I am upgrading to a VC 222. I noticed prices are a bit lower and items not moving as fast as before.

[arche3]

Prices Def lower

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[boricuajr]

.

[MiamiGT4]

I think we on this forum are harder core watch lovers than the average Rolex buyer. There's a lot of watch nerds out there but there's not enough of us to keep a financial juggernaut like the Rolex market in motion. I think the majority of the market are people who are financially able to buy these watches from a combination of real economic growth and central banks meddling (good and bad). The Rolex market is just following the growth in cars, houses, and other assets. If there is a bubble, I doubt it's for Rolex alone.

[VogelPhoenix]

Maybe need to stop in Bienne on my next trip to Geneva to check construction.

[christian-h]

The next few months is going to be really interesting to follow; I believe there's a market correction around the corner.

[stewester]

There's a little wobble currently due to economic uncertainty and a considerable number looking to cash in watches after the large price jump earlier in the year. I think the market will stabilise and then get back to further growth in the next 3-4 months.

[Henrimontgomery]

Originally Posted by MiamiGT4

I think we on this forum are harder core watch lovers than the average Rolex buyer. There's a lot of watch nerds out there but there's not enough of us to keep a financial juggernaut like the Rolex market in motion. I think the majority of the market are people who are financially able to buy these watches from a combination of real economic growth and central banks meddling (good and bad). The Rolex market is just following the growth in cars, houses, and other assets. If there is a bubble, I doubt it's for Rolex alone.

Agree with you however we must remember that other brands are starting to compete more fiercely with Rolex and that what drove Rolex (Instagram and tiktok hype) can be quickly diluted or captured by other brands.

Cartier and others are well poised to sway many non watch enthusiasts from Rolex in the near future. Rolex is becoming too popular, too normal. They will flock to a new cool factor. I truly think that if Cartier was smart they would correct the Santos by making it closer to the original vision, and put it on a few wrists and boom.

It’s instantly recognizable and that’s what these hype people want.

[Speedsleev]

Originally Posted by allen993

But nobody's doing that now...

Not true, I just got a new sub date 41 and in December got a Tiffany Blue OP. They still produce watches and send them to good AD’s who in turn, sell them to good customers.

[SS Oyster]

Originally Posted by jets

It’s like Bitcoin. The only reason it has value is because people agree that it does. As long as Rolex tightens supply this is how it will be.

If you’re asking me I’d say Rolex is exactly where they want to be. No more discounts. No more dust collecting watches in showcases. PM pieces are moving like they never have. They even changed the warranty cards so a person can’t see the store it was bought or even the country. Now when it’s bought second hand another persons name is no longer in it. Demand is meteoric. So yeah if it is a bubble it’s made of see-through iron.


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I agree with the second paragraph. I would only add that ADs must be happy to have an additional revenue stream, where they can sell traded pieces at higher than MSRP prices. Seems odd to see a three year old DD40 listed at an AD for $72k, where it’s brand new counterpart sells for $39k. Another bite at the apple, where they stand to make good margins.

I do not see this as a bubble as it’s natural market supply and demand forces. If the balance on the supply side are disrupted, meaning if Rolex were to suddenly double production, you would see prices soften a bit, but in no way crash. If Rolex were to further restrict supply, then prices would soar.

Is this market reasonable? No. But in an open market, this is how market prices are established.

This is not unlike certain vehicles, except the auto dealers are allowed to set their own prices above (Porsche 911R) or below (Chevrolet Silverado) MSRP. I started looking recently into buying a Mercedes G550. In SoCal, they are available, but you have to pay $80k-$120k over retail. Just visited Pittsburgh, where the waitlist for a G550 is currently at 7 years, but there is no markup as long as you are local. While this example is a bit different, it still illustrates the interaction between supply and demand. Of course, in the case of the G550, gas prices could start to impact the “demand” side of the equation. Impact on me? I’ve given up on the G550 and instead reserved a Rivian, luckily before the price increase.


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[xjeeunitx]

Originally Posted by christian-h

The next few months is going to be really interesting to follow; I believe there's a market correction around the corner.

We are in a correction now.

[hambone1983]

another boy in the bubble thread

[LA_LEC]

Originally Posted by NYG1121

Problem with these "assets" is that the floor can drop from underneath quickly and then there is no real justifiable "bottom" except maybe MSRP but even that is arbitrary. For some references like steel daytona it will always remain higher than MSRP but everything else is fair game. No one wants to catch a falling knife voluntarily.

For people that have only been doing this for the last couple of years don't understand that as recent as 2017 all models sans SS daytona were readily available and traded below MSRP on grey market. Why can't this happen again? Don't say the most dangerous words "this time it is different".

The Rolex market has never been bigger thanks for social media and the generation who lives on it. That market alone eats up yearly production and then some.

Next you have Baby Boomers, Gen X, Gen Jones in the mix and while the wife collects shoes and handbags, we collect watches and Rolex seems quite popular here so there is that.

Only the entire collapse of civilization as we know it might again I say might cause plummet in demand and thus valuation. Until then it's what the market will bear and things are looking up.