Rolexes falling out of trees right now?

[chaokuay]

Scored a TT SD43 after a month wait here at SCP. Are there any other SoCal members that can comment on the wait time trends for sport models?

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by FrequentTrain

The thread title was a comment made by a friend who was fortunate enough to secure a Rootbeer less than a year ago and now a Batman at an AD. Another friend just got a black Sub Date after getting a Starbucks 4 months ago.

Note that the first person does not have other spend history.

Are allocations getting better right now? Curious to hear what others are experiencing.

Four watches out of 850,000+ worldwide?

How could you think that allocations are getting better?

[Time Out]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Four watches out of 850,000+ worldwide?

How could you think that allocations are getting better?

I think that 850k production number is lite a few hundred thousand.

I would guess Rolex produced closer to 1.1 million and going to be moving closer to the 1.4 million mark this year.

[JRell]

Originally Posted by TswaneNguni

Plenty this week ? From where ? Several ADs ?

Yes look at the forum

[Big_Red]

For me, in Atlanta, no. Only thing coming out of the trees is that nasty pollen.

[Mendota]

Originally Posted by Time Out

I think that 850k production number is lite a few hundred thousand.



I would guess Rolex produced closer to 1.1 million and going to be moving closer to the 1.4 million mark this year.

Yes. Multiple people over the last few weeks have already posted last year's Swiss watch numbers. Rolex was 1 mill and 50.

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[nocaps]

i don't know if the recent softening is a blip or the beginning of a genuine downturn, but when the market changes, i predict the following;

1. the professional dealers will quietly begin to unload inventory as quickly as possible.
2. the informed public i.e. trf members and speculators, will begin unloading, causing
additional downward pressure on prices.
3. the general public will realize the market is falling, but it will be too late for them to
recoup their investment.
4. the savvy investors with deep pockets will pick through the wreckage and find some
good deals.

just my $.02 based on 40 years of observing the markets.

[JRell]

Originally Posted by nocaps

i don't know if the recent softening is a blip or the beginning of a genuine downturn, but when the market changes, i predict the following;

1. the professional dealers will quietly begin to unload inventory as quickly as possible.
2. the informed public i.e. trf members and speculators, will begin unloading, causing
additional downward pressure on prices.
3. the general public will realize the market is falling, but it will be too late for them to
recoup their investment.
4. the savvy investors with deep pockets will pick through the wreckage and find some
good deals.

just my $.02 based on 40 years of observing the markets.

5. Many of us will just continue to buy watches from our AD at MSRP that we enjoy wearing and have no idea about the investment part of this or even care.

[xjeeunitx]

Like what Padi says... right place, right time. The demand is higher than ever and folks on the forums are a small percentage of what really occurs at retail stores.

[waterking]

If there is a downturn what makes you think that Rolex will continue building watches? Because demand exceeds supply? That is the constant that will be there no matter what the economy does.

[Mlioon]

I was blessed with a SS Daytona White on Thursday 😍

[xjeeunitx]

Originally Posted by nocaps

i don't know if the recent softening is a blip or the beginning of a genuine downturn, but when the market changes, i predict the following;

1. the professional dealers will quietly begin to unload inventory as quickly as possible.
2. the informed public i.e. trf members and speculators, will begin unloading, causing
additional downward pressure on prices.
3. the general public will realize the market is falling, but it will be too late for them to
recoup their investment.
4. the savvy investors with deep pockets will pick through the wreckage and find some
good deals.

just my $.02 based on 40 years of observing the markets.

Respectfully disagree with all minus 4. This is a seasonal market (right now, we are in the low) and things will turn back up by the fall. Right now, dealers are not going to buy at high prices because of this seasonal market. Savy collectors will buy now in preparation because prices are lower. I do agree with you there.

[sirC]

Picked up a SS Daytona this past Monday at the AD.
Held it for well over 30 seconds.
Felt pretty good.

[wb55]

Originally Posted by Potawatomi

I'm still waiting on Krispy Kreme and a green goblin. When I have both of those I'll agree that the allocations are improving

Run as fast as you can into a brick wall.

Let me know how you get on.

[Spurman]

Prob rolex revenue is 6b usd a yr.
Take an avg watch of 12k usd a sale.

Just maybe 500000pcs a yr of watches only.

[nocaps]

Originally Posted by xjeeunitx

Respectfully disagree with all minus 4. This is a seasonal market (right now, we are in the low) and things will turn back up by the fall. Right now, dealers are not going to buy at high prices because of this seasonal market. Savy collectors will buy now in preparation because prices are lower. I do agree with you there.

again, i'm not commenting on whether the market is in a lull or a downturn. i'm putting forth the likely chain of events when a downturn happens, which could also be applied to other assets, such as fine automobiles, crypto or real estate.
i don't ascribe to the notion that rolex watches only go up in value. on the contrary, in an economic downturn, non-essentials such as fine watches
will be the first to be off loaded.

[nocaps]

Originally Posted by JRell

5. Many of us will just continue to buy watches from our AD at MSRP that we enjoy wearing and have no idea about the investment part of this or even care.

brilliant!

[teck21]

Originally Posted by Spurman

Prob rolex revenue is 6b usd a yr.
Take an avg watch of 12k usd a sale.

Just maybe 500000pcs a yr of watches only.

Presume you are referring to AD sales?

Rolex sells to them at a far lower price than that.

The commonly accepted figure is approx 1,000,000 but only a few people know for sure and they don’t share that information.


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[GaoKS]

Originally Posted by sirc

picked up a ss daytona this past monday at the ad.
Held it for well over 30 seconds.
Felt pretty good.

Lmaoo

[Spurman]

Originally Posted by teck21

Presume you are referring to AD sales?

Rolex sells to them at a far lower price than that.

The commonly accepted figure is approx 1,000,000 but only a few people know for sure and they don’t share that information.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Oh ya. My bad. Assume gp of 4k a watch.

Yeah.

[donas]

I'm not seeing it. Been on a wait list since Aug 2020. I've stopped by about every 3 months, not offered a thing.

[alphadweller]

Judging from the many incoming threads, I get the feeling things are improving at ADs. I also see more hot watches for sale in C24, as if grey dealers were trying to get rid of excess stock they would normally be sitting on if they expected market to go up. Then I can no longer deny a small price correction on some models.

Is it just a blip or is the market turning? I don't know. All I want is going back to when watches were readily available at ADs with no conditions.

[Chris]

Originally Posted by xjeeunitx

Respectfully disagree with all minus 4. This is a seasonal market (right now, we are in the low) and things will turn back up by the fall. Right now, dealers are not going to buy at high prices because of this seasonal market. Savy collectors will buy now in preparation because prices are lower. I do agree with you there.

Buy the dips!!! This is an investment forum?

[xjeeunitx]

Originally Posted by Chris

Buy the dips!!! This is an investment forum?

We can all laugh about it now. Let's come back to this thread at the end of the year and see where the prices are then.

[AJMarcus]

Originally Posted by padi56

Just like any purchase from any AD world wide, got to be in the place of sale at the right time.

Very well said Padi. Not sure why some folks don’t get this simple fact.

[Matt129]

I have no idea if this ties into the perceived recent uptick in supply, but my AD told me that he was expecting a fresh batch of display models and was told he could sell his current displays when they came in. I was under the impression that display models did not have full movements in them but his apparently do. He said something about getting warranty cards in which led me to believe that perhaps Rolex did not send him the warranty cards to prevent them from being sold earlier? No idea just adding another AD rumor to the stack. Conversation started because he knows I have been hot for a ZBlue, which he had on display, and he told me to keep my phone handy in the next week or two that I would be getting the call.

[Frog7151]

No Rolex trees where I live. We only have 1 AD to service a region of 1.5 - 2 million people. In fact there are less than 10 ADs in the whole state and 2/3rds of those ADs are owned by the same company.
The manager at my local AD told me the waitlist for a Submariner was over 100 deep and some customers have been waiting over two years for a Submariner. She also told me when they get a watch in they call corporate HQ and they tell them who the watch goes to.

Not very encouraging.

[cvz]

Originally Posted by JRell

5. Many of us will just continue to buy watches from our AD at MSRP that we enjoy wearing and have no idea about the investment part of this or even care.

This

[dwaine99]

Originally Posted by Matt129

I was under the impression that display models did not have full movements in them but his apparently do.

Wanting a 116500 LN, I had the opportunity to try on an exhibition or display model 116503 this past week. My SA said every Rolex in their display case is a fully working model.

[Wahlberg]

Originally Posted by nocaps

i don't know if the recent softening is a blip or the beginning of a genuine downturn, but when the market changes, i predict the following;

1. the professional dealers will quietly begin to unload inventory as quickly as possible.
2. the informed public i.e. trf members and speculators, will begin unloading, causing
additional downward pressure on prices.
3. the general public will realize the market is falling, but it will be too late for them to
recoup their investment.
4. the savvy investors with deep pockets will pick through the wreckage and find some
good deals.

just my $.02 based on 40 years of observing the markets.

You realize people buy and bought watches to wear.