Rolexes falling out of trees right now?

[mykii]

Originally Posted by nocaps

i don't know if the recent softening is a blip or the beginning of a genuine downturn, but when the market changes, i predict the following;

1. the professional dealers will quietly begin to unload inventory as quickly as possible.
2. the informed public i.e. trf members and speculators, will begin unloading, causing
additional downward pressure on prices.
3. the general public will realize the market is falling, but it will be too late for them to
recoup their investment.
4. the savvy investors with deep pockets will pick through the wreckage and find some
good deals.

just my $.02 based on 40 years of observing the markets.

40 years of watch markets?

[jamerson80]

Just flew in to pick up a Patek 6119G, and out of the blue my Rolex SA next door offered me something I'd been waiting for since turning down the black dial version over a year ago. In speaking with Rolex and PP folk, the market is still hot for their watches. They have not noticed any slowdown, but it could be because of the city they are in (heavily trafficked vacation destination).

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[dwaine99]

Originally Posted by Matt129

I was under the impression that display models did not have full movements in them but his apparently do.

My SA said every "exhibition" Rolex in their display case is a fully working watch. While trying on a display model Daytona this past week, my SA showed me two watches that were available in the "for sale" case, an Explorer and TT Sub. Six weeks ago on my first visit, there was zero availability. She said now it is common to receive several watches per week instead of several weeks without a watch. She let me know the 116500 white dial was near impossible to get.

[fixinbones]

Originally Posted by Number3

Royale with cheese.

So does anyone know that it’s called a Royale with cheese by personally experiencing it in France or do we all know it’s called that from watching Pulp Fiction?

[dnd2984]

Originally Posted by Potawatomi

I'm still waiting on Krispy Kreme and a green goblin. When I have both of those I'll agree that the allocations are improving

what's Krispy Kreme????

[zagazar]

Watched the latest episode from CRM jewellery on YouTube and the owner openly said that he is not buying anymore Rolex. All his watches were sitting on the shelf for few weeks now. Only consignment.

[stevestil]

WTF is a krispy kreme????????


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[JRell]

Krispy Kreme is the best donut shop in the world.

[Jamiewabbit]

Originally Posted by JRell

Krispy Kreme is the best donut shop in the world.

Agreed

[garyk]

Freakin nicknames. Dumb AF…..

[daveswordfish]

Originally Posted by fixinbones

So does anyone know that it’s called a Royale with cheese by personally experiencing it in France or do we all know it’s called that from watching Pulp Fiction?

Technically, it’s the Royal Cheese





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[1665fan]

Rolex forum is now donut forum…….what a shame……

[Rolexforthewin]

Originally Posted by jrell

krispy kreme is the best donut shop in the world.

+1

[nocaps]

Originally Posted by Wahlberg

You realize people buy and bought watches to wear.

yep, i should have made that clear in my original post. i buy to wear and
enjoy, not as investments.

[Tensai]

I love the guy showing off his white Daytona which is clearly unsized ha. Enjoy the safe queen or flip :)

It’s April. Market is always slow every April.

[taylor2000]

I got the call for a BLNR on oyster last week. I was floored because it was from an AD where I had no purchase history - the SA mentioned that I had been in for a $280 service on one of my TAGs back in 2014, but I honestly don't remember that. I had stopped in back in September of 2020 becase I happened to be next door and had time to kill. I thought the SA and I hit it off, but I expected nothing. He asked me what I would want and I said GMT II. He gave me his cell and we exchanged a text message every month or so. I made sure to let him know I liked the oyster bracelet better then the jubilee when it was released in 2021. I have a 126334 on jubilee. He knew I bought watches at another AD, but he also knew they never offered me the GMT.

Well I'm at work last week and texts me to come get my 126710BLNR on oyster. I was there 30 minutes later. I'm either lucky, charming, or there are more watches around. Probably all three.

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[JRell]

Originally Posted by taylor2000

I got the call for a BLNR on oyster last week. I was floored because it was from an AD where I had no purchase history - the SA mentioned that I had been in for a $280 service on one of my TAGs back in 2014, but I honestly don't remember that. I had stopped in back in September of 2020 becase I happened to be next door and had time to kill. I thought the SA and I hit it off, but I expected nothing. He asked me what I would want and I said GMT II. He gave me his cell and we exchanged a text message every month or so. I made sure to let him know I liked the oyster bracelet better then the jubilee when it was released in 2021. I have a 126334 on jubilee. He knew I bought watches at another AD, but he also knew they never offered me the GMT.

Well I'm at work last week and texts me to come get my 126710BLNR on oyster. I was there 30 minutes later. I'm either lucky, charming, or there are more watches around. Probably all three.

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Love to see better availability.

[Bizcut1]

No one knows anything.

[poidog81]

My AD told me they have been seeing an increase of supply and more often, rather then before getting nothing for weeks. He did say the uptick in inventory was mostly datejusts with stainless professional models and all gold pieces were still few and far between. Still nothing available in the cases for sale only demonstration watches, as everything is still being sold by allocation.

[Nairn1980]

Sadly the Rolex trees around here are pretty bare. Supply is nowhere close to supply.

[padi56]

Originally Posted by 1665fan

Rolex forum is now donut forum…….what a shame……

Have agree and sad that Rolex watches are becoming nickname Micky Mouse watches.

[dtwer]

With greater uncertainties in the economy, people reprioritize their personal finance. In the grand scheme of things, having a Rolex is not on the top of people's list when they have to anticipate rising heating, fuel, and grocery bills.

[amh]

It's more accurate to say that Grey dealers are well stocked. Take a look at the popular trusted sellers, they'll have multiple pieces of the same kind and prices have hit a wall.

Until prices fall back down to MSRP levels we can't expect the general public to purchase watches directly from ADs. The Whales and Greys will continue to feast.

[JRell]

We’re gonna need a bigger rake.

[Roger Lococco]

Originally Posted by amh

It's more accurate to say that Grey dealers are well stocked. Take a look at the popular trusted sellers, they'll have multiple pieces of the same kind and prices have hit a wall.

Until prices fall back down to MSRP levels we can't expect the general public to purchase watches directly from ADs. The Whales and Greys will continue to feast.

I’m somewhat shocked when I see a 2015 Platona on DSW for $225k. I wonder how much he paid for that watch.


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[NYG1121]

Originally Posted by Roger Lococco

I’m somewhat shocked when I see a 2015 Platona on DSW for $225k. I wonder how much he paid for that watch.


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And there are other TS with newer platona in the 150s and dropping by the day.. It is wild out there with pricing right now

[Time Out]

Buying grey right now is a fools errand.

[FrequentTrain]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Four watches out of 850,000+ worldwide?

How could you think that allocations are getting better?

According to the annual watch report by Morgan Stanley, Rolex went from 810k watches in 2020 to 1,050k in 2021. I would guess 2022 would at least see a marginal increase in production and the last 3 years of appreciation claim most of the increases over the last decade.

A small increase in production, plus a decline in demand, might make hard to get watches feel more available. As soon as people start to believe prices might do something other than go up grey buyers will start to get cold feet and sellers will need to reluctantly reduce prices to avoid larger losses since I’m sure inventory far exceeds 2018 levels for most all of them. Probably need more time to tell if a trend or just a temporary dip but look at the 5711 prices over the last month.

Can anyone in the industry talk about grey watch inventory now vs inventory in 2018? Probably most important is value of that inventory rather than sheer quantity.

[Fedpete]

Originally Posted by Time Out

Buying grey right now is a fools errand.

+1


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[zagazar]

This morning I was at Schipol airport in Amsterdam and they had most models as exhibition and I asked if they had other watches and the lady said, they just sold a 2 tone skydweller and she showed me the watch and then the owner came back and picked up the watch. The sales person said, we are receiving watches and replacing with exhibition models.
Few months ago there were no watches at all on display nor for sale.