Skeleton 39mm(15305) vs 16202 ultra thin?

[tough]

Dear ladies and gents,

Hope everyone is well.

I have a friend that is interested to trade me his 16202 (recently acquired by him at retail), for my 15305 (I have owned for a number of years now).

I have never tired of the 15305 personally. It's extremely striking, beautiful, easy to set as has no date, and quite frankly is almost an instant look for anyone to realize that it is special.
I bought it for a fraction of what the market price is today (even if we corrected to say $100K), and I'm not concerned about value whatsoever.

As a lover of the Royal Oak generally, I never felt the need to look further since owning such a striking and very very very seldom seen reference in the wild as well as the market (in comparison to an ultra thin).

Now with my friend's offer, I am a little bit confused. Should I consider it?
Would the 16202 (being an anniversary model), and the fact that it is more timeless in the sense that it is slimmer and has a clean blue dial, be more iconic and suitable in 10-20 years from now when I am much older?
Would you even consider this trade? We haven't discussed how much money to come my way, and the point is not to gain value off the trade anyway, but rather whether it would be foolish or a good call to make the trade in the first place.

Many thanks folks!

[DonLee]

it's not even close... it takes weeks to finish and polish an openworked.
They make ~300 openworked a year spread over different watch sizes.

I'm sure they make a lot more jumbos.
It takes no more effort to make a jumbo than pretty much any other royal oak, imo.

also that there will be many many more 16202st's coming out. your skeleton is discontinued.

[GW44]

You have the better/more interesting AP reference now.

No harm in trying to add a 16202ST in time but not as a Trade as proposed.

[GB-man]

For me it depends on the cash your way. If the money is of zero consideration then I’d pass. If you will use it to add something else cool then maybe. I’d be happy with either as an only AP.

[GS93108]

There will be 1000 16202st made this year with the 50th rotor. IMO in 10 years, 20 years, 50 years they will be properly sought after as true collectibles and not just over hyped 50th 'other' models.

Next year there will undoubtedly be another 1000 16202st made that are identical to this year other than the rotor - less collectible and sought after in the future but IDENTICAL to wear.

I fall into the category of being a 'wearer' rather than 'collector' but when it comes to ANY jumbo from this year with the 50th rotor then I believe they are worth having.

Short answer - your choice, whatever speaks to you. But this year the Jumbo is extra special. Any other year and I'd agree that it's not worth the trade. This year it 'maybe'.

[VogelPhoenix]

For a non-50th 16202ST the answer would obviously be no, don't do it, even with cash coming your way. For this year's Jumbo it's a tough choice (as indicated also by the approximate market value, which seems to be a wash).

In an multi-piece AP collection, it would be really nice to have a 50th RO. But as far as the watch itself, I find the 15305 much more interesting (even though I prefer the 15407) and as an only AP, I'm pretty sure I'd keep the 15305.

[uniqueMR]

15305 all day!!

[thekman]

I would not let a 15305 go for a regular jumbo no matter what the rotor on the back says. Your piece is more special. Unless you do not like it at all and really want the jumbo, even then I would ask for a substantial amount of money my way. A jumbo regardless of it's status is not more special than an openworked in my humble opinion.

[Vipes]

I had a 15305 and sold it back in the day for a Patek 5712. Kinda regret the decision. I would trade the 15305 for the RG 16202 50th but not for the Ss version.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by DonLee

it's not even close... it takes weeks to finish and polish an openworked.
They make ~300 openworked a year spread over different watch sizes.

I'm sure they make a lot more jumbos.
It takes no more effort to make a jumbo than pretty much any other royal oak, imo.

also that there will be many many more 16202st's coming out. your skeleton is discontinued.

Spot on, +1.

OP, do you have the optionality of adding to the collection? IMO, I would keep the 15305 and then add a 15202 (wait for prices to keep dropping). No reason to sell your skeleton into a 16202, anniversary or not.

[tough]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Spot on, +1.

OP, do you have the optionality of adding to the collection? IMO, I would keep the 15305 and then add a 15202 (wait for prices to keep dropping). No reason to sell your skeleton into a 16202, anniversary or not.

Originally Posted by DonLee

it's not even close... it takes weeks to finish and polish an openworked.
They make ~300 openworked a year spread over different watch sizes.

I'm sure they make a lot more jumbos.
It takes no more effort to make a jumbo than pretty much any other royal oak, imo.

also that there will be many many more 16202st's coming out. your skeleton is discontinued.

Originally Posted by GB-man

For me it depends on the cash your way. If the money is of zero consideration then I’d pass. If you will use it to add something else cool then maybe. I’d be happy with either as an only AP.

Originally Posted by thekman

I would not let a 15305 go for a regular jumbo no matter what the rotor on the back says. Your piece is more special. Unless you do not like it at all and really want the jumbo, even then I would ask for a substantial amount of money my way. A jumbo regardless of it's status is not more special than an openworked in my humble opinion.

Many thanks for the encouragement everyone that commented and voted. Truly do appreciate it.

My gut tells me to keep the 15305 without a doubt as well. There is certainly something special about the presence of the open work on a Royal Oak.

Though the ultra thin is very striking, is definitely beautiful, iconic, and special, the look and feel could be matched somehow through other royal oak references. A 15450, a 15400, 15500. Ofcourse not as slim, definitely not the same caliber, but nevertheless a blue dial time and date function.
The Skeleton on the other hand has no substitute.

I have no intention to gain more value so to me the amount of money coming towards me via the trade has no significance.
I'm simply trying to decide between a one and only RO (between my skeleton or 16202).
I would not mind ADDING a 16202, but its very unlikely I would be able to do that via retail, and I have no intention of paying for a 16202 on grey market (unless it was via offset from a watch in my collection that I got for cheap).

I also somehow love the idea of having just one royal oak, but a heck of a special one.

[huncho]

i would never trade the 15305 for a 16202. 15305 is just too special

[Vince_76]

Keep the 15305. That will be much harder to replace/substitute for the reasons you mentioned. Moreover, no one does an openworked like AP.

On the other hand, the minute differences among the 16202 anniversary to the regular production run (along with the 15202), make me think you'll be just fine in sourcing a piece you'll like, with some patience.

[raclaims]

Hmmmm a few years ago yeah...sure...AP was king of openwerked but now so many manufactures are doing it extremely well.

Tough call...in the end I'd just go with the one you actually like better and will wear more often.

[Reign]

I’d trade for the 16202, far more special and timeless. I dare say your skeleton will look dated after awhile


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Bearxj86]

Don’t do it

[911AP]

Originally Posted by Bearxj86

Don’t do it

I second this. Don't do it. Though idk where people are getting the 1000 16202 made. Before there were about 500-600 15202 made per year spread across all the various models. So that means like 200 a year were steel. There were a lot of different variations all at once.

The 16202 will follow that. The more variations that come the less they will make a steel one. They both are rare. Your 15305 is more rare. Though I'd try to swap it for a 15407.

[rtanjaya]

15305, and wait for a 16202 non-50

[subtona]

Ultra thin

[VogelPhoenix]

Originally Posted by 911AP

I second this. Don't do it. Though idk where people are getting the 1000 16202 made. Before there were about 500-600 15202 made per year spread across all the various models. So that means like 200 a year were steel. There were a lot of different variations all at once.

Jumbo production number is no secret. From FHB himself: "Besides, if we really did make 5,000 Royal Oak Jumbo watches instead of 1,500 a year, it would probably lose its desirability, and the original owners would blame us for that."

Source: https://en.worldtempus.com/article/i...uet-31402.html

I'm fairly certain that the steel version is made in much higher numbers than WG, RG, YG, Pt etc. E.g., there seem to be many more owners of the 15202ST here than for the other variants, and on C24 there are more steel Jumbos than all other variants combined (for both 15202 and 16202).

It's still going to be relatively rare, but 1000/year for the steel Jumbo alone should be in the right ballpark.

[GS93108]

Originally Posted by VogelPhoenix

Jumbo production number is no secret. From FHB himself: "Besides, if we really did make 5,000 Royal Oak Jumbo watches instead of 1,500 a year, it would probably lose its desirability, and the original owners would blame us for that."

Source: https://en.worldtempus.com/article/i...uet-31402.html

I'm fairly certain that the steel version is made in much higher numbers than WG, RG, YG, Pt etc. E.g., there seem to be many more owners of the 15202ST here than for the other variants, and on C24 there are more steel Jumbos than all other variants combined (for both 15202 and 16202).

It's still going to be relatively rare, but 1000/year for the steel Jumbo alone should be in the right ballpark.

Circa 1875 total jumbos, 1000 steel, the balance for precious metals. I don't know the exact breakdown for the others but the PT is circa 250.

[faimag]

Originally Posted by rtanjaya

15305, and wait for a 16202 non-50

this

[Bearxj86]

Originally Posted by 911AP

I second this. Don't do it. Though idk where people are getting the 1000 16202 made. Before there were about 500-600 15202 made per year spread across all the various models. So that means like 200 a year were steel. There were a lot of different variations all at once.

The 16202 will follow that. The more variations that come the less they will make a steel one. They both are rare. Your 15305 is more rare. Though I'd try to swap it for a 15407.

Given its the 50th anniversary with the rotor and a special year that AP has been preparing for - I won't be surprised they increase production to around 1500-2000 this year (just for the rotor). Having 2000 16202s with special rotors out there ain't half bad tbh.

At the same time, how much do you care about the rotor - perhaps in time there will be a difference....

[TunaTuna]

You are just bored, don't trade

[subtona]

pics would help.

[Fifteen]

Originally Posted by Bearxj86

Given its the 50th anniversary with the rotor and a special year that AP has been preparing for - I won't be surprised they increase production to around 1500-2000 this year (just for the rotor). Having 2000 16202s with special rotors out there ain't half bad tbh.

At the same time, how much do you care about the rotor - perhaps in time there will be a difference....

They also increased total volume from 50k to 55k, so you would expect on average that production will go up 10% or so across all models.

[PatexRhilippe]

I would go for the 16202 if that's a 50th Anniversary which I'm pretty sure it is. It's only made 1 year but the 15305 can be bought anytime again, the 16202 with the anniversary rotor, I think not.

[911AP]

Originally Posted by Fifteen

They also increased total volume from 50k to 55k, so you would expect on average that production will go up 10% or so across all models.

It doesn't. Probably all went to codes.

[CoveWatch]

I love the 15305 and would not trade that towards any jumbo. The ONLY jumbo I'd maybe consider would be a 15202BC, and I still prefer the openworked in this case. Keep it!

[tough]

Originally Posted by CoveWatch

I love the 15305 and would not trade that towards any jumbo. The ONLY jumbo I'd maybe consider would be a 15202BC, and I still prefer the openworked in this case. Keep it!

Originally Posted by subtona

pics would help.

Originally Posted by Bearxj86

Don’t do it

Originally Posted by Vince_76

Keep the 15305. That will be much harder to replace/substitute for the reasons you mentioned. Moreover, no one does an openworked like AP.

On the other hand, the minute differences among the 16202 anniversary to the regular production run (along with the 15202), make me think you'll be just fine in sourcing a piece you'll like, with some patience.

Originally Posted by huncho

i would never trade the 15305 for a 16202. 15305 is just too special

Many thanks for all the continued responses and poll votes from fellow members.
I've decided to pass on the offer.
I viewed the 16202 yesterday, and while beautiful, and special with the anniversary rotor, I did see the elegance and beauty of the ultra thin, but I didn't see any real reason to find it more special in comparison to my skeleton, and if I was being brutally honest, unless I was picking it up at retail, I would rather buy a used 15202 and save the difference and keep my skeleton.
Ultimately I feel that I would pick the skeleton 9/10 times if I had both.

The skeleton felt alot more special. It has a presence that the jumbo lacks.
While both beautiful and it is a good problem to have, I think I would regret the trade.

The quality and finishing / depth of the skeleton is second to non.
I got mine from the original owner years ago, has all its bits and pieces down to the purchase receipt, and was very sparingly worn by him.