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Old 3 October 2022, 08:44 AM   #1
rockysw
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A different perspective

So I was thinking what if the financial crisis actually end up becoming a uplift for the watch market.

Well first of all, i am one of those people who do want the watch market to crash. Things have gone crazy in the last few years, we all know about it so I wont dwell on it.

My thought process is that a lot of investments these days are virtual (for lack of better word) such as bonds, equites etc. And in an environment where it seems they might crash or at least go down in value significantly people may want to invest or hold on to physical assets.

Watches are real physical assets in your hand and there is no doubt that there is very large demand for them. Just like gold or other precious metals. Whilst values for these assets go up or down, they do remain valuable in most situations.

Now I am not saying that this will happen for all watches but could be a possibility for real hard to find watches or very high demand watches.

Just a perspective I wanted to share.
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Old 3 October 2022, 08:45 AM   #2
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I think that it’s far more likely watches are once again viewed as depreciating assets that are purchased for retail or less…


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Old 3 October 2022, 09:44 AM   #3
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How is this a different perspective? Seems like the same thoughts shared by many who were enthusiasts before covid spike.

I've only been into watches for a year now but it seems those hard to get models were hard to get years before the pandemic, so I can't see it happening any time soon, nor will ADs help towards that outcome because they sell a lot of product to those willing to spend for a chance at a popular Rolex at MSRP. My guess is those Daytonas, GMTs, and possibly Submariners will always be kept in the back and only go to preferred customers.
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Old 3 October 2022, 03:07 PM   #4
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I've only been into watches for a year now.
Correct, as none of what you listed aside from a Daytona was ever hard to obtain.
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Old 3 October 2022, 03:12 PM   #5
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Wrong group to post this, bro.
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Old 3 October 2022, 03:15 PM   #6
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I think if it was inflation primarily and not job loss or housing bubble, you would be more likely to be correct. The news was just showing how the Chinese are buying up pre-own Rolex because of the financial depression. But you never know. I think anyone that tells you they know for sure is just guessing as much as the next guy.
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Old 3 October 2022, 03:50 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tim Plains View Post
How is this a different perspective? Seems like the same thoughts shared by many who were enthusiasts before covid spike.

I've only been into watches for a year now but it seems those hard to get models were hard to get years before the pandemic, so I can't see it happening any time soon, nor will ADs help towards that outcome because they sell a lot of product to those willing to spend for a chance at a popular Rolex at MSRP. My guess is those Daytonas, GMTs, and possibly Submariners will always be kept in the back and only go to preferred customers.
The only watch that was hard to get was a Daytona and it wasn't anything close to what it is today. Subs and GMTs were all readily available and at a discount on the secondary market.
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Old 3 October 2022, 03:51 PM   #8
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For that to the be the case, the hype/frenzy around watches would need to continue. Seems unlikely in a downturn. But we shall see.
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Old 3 October 2022, 06:02 PM   #9
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Buying luxury watches as a safe-haven is a gamble. I would just stick to wearing and enjoying them while investing in something else.
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Old 4 October 2022, 04:16 AM   #10
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I'm content with what's in my collection right now. Not concerned or speculating.
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Old 4 October 2022, 04:25 AM   #11
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Old 4 October 2022, 04:50 AM   #12
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Will be hard to compare watches with gold, stocks, bonds or other financial instruments. Mainly because the people managing these instruments generates some sort of profit/income with these funds while a watch’s value is mainly hinged on their desirability and hence the willingness for someone to pay for it. So it’s highly dependent on the hype and We all know hype comes and goes. But it hardly stays forever.
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Old 4 October 2022, 04:57 AM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rockysw View Post

Well first of all, i am one of those people who do want the watch market to crash.


Why? Because you want to buy? And then you want what you bought to be worth less? No one wants disinflation that understands it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by rockysw View Post
Watches are real physical assets in your hand and there is no doubt that there is very large demand for them. Just like gold or other precious metals. Whilst values for these assets go up or down, they do remain valuable in most situations.
Ask people that have bought Tag, Hublot, Breitling and IWC how they feel about value
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Old 4 October 2022, 05:45 AM   #14
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Why? Because you want to buy? And then you want what you bought to be worth less? No one wants disinflation that understands it.
This. Disinflation/deflation is a death spiral. Also, I think in the event of a severe worldwide economic downturn watch values will fall with everything else.
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Old 4 October 2022, 05:50 AM   #15
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Buying luxury watches as a safe-haven is a gamble. I would just stick to wearing and enjoying them while investing in something else.
Exactly this ^^^
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Old 4 October 2022, 05:53 AM   #16
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Buy what you like and if value goes up congratulations! Remember that like any other assets you only loose if you sell on the wrong moment. Ask stock market now !


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Old 4 October 2022, 06:06 AM   #17
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Originally Posted by Son Goku View Post
The only watch that was hard to get was a Daytona and it wasn't anything close to what it is today. Subs and GMTs were all readily available and at a discount on the secondary market.
Really? Unless I'm off, there have been several posts here that GMT/Submariner stock started drying up circa 2016/2017 selling above MSRP.
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Old 4 October 2022, 06:54 AM   #18
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OP, I think your reasoning is questionable. The recent demand for watches was fueled in part by the fact that people had disposable income to spend. If that reverses, I do not think people will flock to watches as a substitute for gold.

I also question wanting the watch market to crash as opposed to correct. I have no desire to see people standing in bread lines so I can get a great deal on a watch.
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Old 4 October 2022, 07:36 AM   #19
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Really? Unless I'm off, there have been several posts here that GMT/Submariner stock started drying up circa 2016/2017 selling above MSRP.
Again, wrong. You know what you could do ca '16-17? Buy a brand new Sub or GMT from tons of grey for 10-20% off.
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Old 4 October 2022, 07:48 AM   #20
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I think a percentage of the watch market is the capability to hide , transport and launder money to be honest with you.
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Old 4 October 2022, 08:15 AM   #21
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OP, I think your reasoning is questionable. The recent demand for watches was fueled in part by the fact that people had disposable income to spend. If that reverses, I do not think people will flock to watches as a substitute for gold.

I also question wanting the watch market to crash as opposed to correct. I have no desire to see people standing in bread lines so I can get a great deal on a watch.
Agreed
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Old 4 October 2022, 08:18 AM   #22
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I also question wanting the watch market to crash as opposed to correct. I have no desire to see people standing in bread lines so I can get a great deal on a watch.
I didnt mean that by a watch market crash. Needless to say that watches are at the end of the day are nothing but unnecessary items and by no means i (or anyone else for that matter) would want a global financial crisis just so they can get a good deal on a watch.

It was a poor choice of words. I simply meant that I do want us to come out of what ever is going on with a more normal watch market where obtaining watches is easy and the hobby is fun.
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Old 4 October 2022, 08:19 AM   #23
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Really? Unless I'm off, there have been several posts here that GMT/Submariner stock started drying up circa 2016/2017 selling above MSRP.
Bought my black GMT in 2017 $7500 out the door brand new from AD. I got lucky. Walked right in and was out within minutes.
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Old 6 October 2022, 04:23 AM   #24
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Again, wrong. You know what you could do ca '16-17? Buy a brand new Sub or GMT from tons of grey for 10-20% off.
You say I'm incorrect and yet here are more posts, made today, mentioning GMT difficulty around 2017.
https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=875178

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Bought my black GMT in 2017 $7500 out the door brand new from AD. I got lucky. Walked right in and was out within minutes.
That is really good. There are always good luck stories here and there.
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Old 6 October 2022, 04:39 AM   #25
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I didnt mean that by a watch market crash. Needless to say that watches are at the end of the day are nothing but unnecessary items and by no means i (or anyone else for that matter) would want a global financial crisis just so they can get a good deal on a watch.

It was a poor choice of words. I simply meant that I do want us to come out of what ever is going on with a more normal watch market where obtaining watches is easy and the hobby is fun.
if you are only interested in the beauty of mechanical watches you REALLY don't have to go into Rolex for that.

you can go ahead and collect Seikos, Tag Heuers, Longines and many other fine watches, as well as older (smaller) vintage watches from the top brands.

or..could it be that maybe, just maybe, Rolex is actually a Veblen good and you simply want what is hard to get? (i will volunteer here that i probably fall into that category myself)

If that's the case, don't hope for a correction, b/c you might suddenly not be so interested in them anymore if their prices go down
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Old 6 October 2022, 05:04 AM   #26
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Quote:
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You say I'm incorrect and yet here are more posts, made today, mentioning GMT difficulty around 2017.
https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=875178


That is really good. There are always good luck stories here and there.
You continue to comment ‘if you’re wrong’ (which multiple posters have told you that you are), but it’s as if you refuse to believe it. Instead of pulling up any DavidSW/Takuya/trusted seller listing from ~2017, you now quote some random dude in 2022 reminiscing of ‘2017 in Taiwan’

Here, I’ll do a quick search For you. Brand new GMT from an incredibly reputable guy, in the middle of 2017, for LESS than retail.

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=548191
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Old 6 October 2022, 05:23 AM   #27
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I agree with the OP. Like it or not watches and especially Rolex are purchased for a number of reasons. One of which is "investment" or knowing it will hold it's value. Like it or not many may like a watch but not buy it at the current pricing-- knowing it is going to depreciate as soon as they walk out the door.
If your buying because you like it and not concerned with future value that is fine. I try to evaluate watches, cars, houses, boats etc. that I know will depreciate at an accelerated rate when I am ready to buy.
One philosophy is not better then the other, just 2 ways of looking at it.
Like it or not people will buy a Rolex for investment, for the brand, the watch itself, the price, status etc. All are valid reasons. All should post their views on this forum since there is no wrong answer.
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Old 6 October 2022, 09:04 AM   #28
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if you are only interested in the beauty of mechanical watches you REALLY don't have to go into Rolex for that.

you can go ahead and collect Seikos, Tag Heuers, Longines and many other fine watches, as well as older (smaller) vintage watches from the top brands.

or..could it be that maybe, just maybe, Rolex is actually a Veblen good and you simply want what is hard to get? (i will volunteer here that i probably fall into that category myself)

If that's the case, don't hope for a correction, b/c you might suddenly not be so interested in them anymore if their prices go down

My view is that even if I or someone else for that matter want to buy watches for beauty of mechanical watches, why shouldnt I buy rolex along with the other brands? Rolex is a great brand and I would like to buy it along with other brands. As a consumer I want all options on the table.

On a side note, I am quite heavily invested in pre-owned rolex, so a proper market correction will result in a significant loss for me. But I still want it corrected simply because I like watches and I want watches to be available. But we are really side tracking here. The topic was one something else. :D
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Old 6 October 2022, 10:05 AM   #29
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There are different views as to whether watches are investment but I think it has evolved into something else with social media. It is not uncommon to see 20-year-olds flexing in their IG with their Patek/AP/Rolex and I'm sure this has knock-on effect on other kids and IG users. Social media won't go away and this will be the new norm.
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Old 6 October 2022, 10:07 AM   #30
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There are different views as to whether watches are investment but I think it has evolved into something else with social media. It is not uncommon to see 20-year-olds flexing in their IG with their Patek/AP/Rolex and I'm sure this has knock-on effect on other kids and IG users. Social media won't go away and this will be the new norm.
Some of these younger guys (not all obviously) are wearing fakes. 100%. I've seen signs just with their simple wrist shots. and no telling how many more are fake that only post wrist shots from 5 feet away and impossible to decipher detail.
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