How many Rolex go back under warranty?

[Jona]

I had warranty done:

DJ36 with a winding issue.
AK with a bad rattle inside.
Tudor chrono minute hand won't return to zero.

[KevinP.]

I'm an immaterial sample size, but 0 of about 14 purchased since 2012 have had to go in for warranty.

I'm sure I'll eventually run into issues in the long run, but I'm fairly confident in the risk being low based on my experience and those of close friends.

[77T]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

no way its 1/100k


My wife has had one rolex and that is in for warranty work now. I have probably had 10.... but really only kept 1 longer than two years and that 1 has gone in too


i would guess its probably 20% over 5 years and that is counting obsessive time keepers for a +3 timekeeping regulation issue.

Interesting topic. I have had zero warranty claims in 19 years across 25 or more Rolexes. Of course this is no reflection on the question.

I agree, statistically speaking, that it could not be 1:100,000 - I don’t know of any manufacturing process that perfect.

My SWAG IS 34:100,000...*

As we discuss the topic we are missing 2 critical figures. That is, the number of watches produced and delivered each year. Then one must figure out how many defects occur - and presume each and every defect ends up in a separate watch. That would be two measures to start with.

For example, if a defective screw and a defective gear both end up in the same watch, then the number of potentially defective watches is one less than if each defective part landed in a different watch.

Lastly, one must calculate the probability that the defective part fails to the point that an owner would notice within the warranty period. For example, some defective parts may fail in a way that affects waterproofness but the owner never goes underwater. Or, the defect affects accuracy but the owner accepts it as part of mechanical watch timekeeping idiosyncrasies. Only a WIS may complain about -/+15s. per day.

* Best Case Maths:
If we guess that production is between 1 million and 2 million...

If we give Rolex credit for achieving 99.99966% workmanship (6σ)...

Then the answer could be between 340-680 per year.

But I doubt they are a 6σ company. So any number above 500 defective watches per year is conceivable.

Using the current 5-yr. warranty span, that gives the entire global RSC network an opportunity to work on between 1,700-3,400 in any given year. That assumes all failures occur to the point an owner wants remedy in the same year and are presented to RSC.

Nice Sunday morning pondering - I don’t warranty the maths.


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[brucethemanlee]

Knock on wood but my dozen of so Rolex have never gone back in warranty


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[ecdc]

Originally Posted by Soultime

This question came up in another thread and I am interested to know.

Someone said they reckon it is less than 1/100,000.
I said in that case I must be really unlucky.....

I have owned 5 Rolex and 2 went in under warranty, (one 2 Yr warranty / one 5 year warranty) and one needed work just out of warranty.

What's others experience?

My 2015 SS Daytona did, after 3.5 years. Why? The chrono would stop suddenly, and the watch kept losing more and more time per day. It was -10/s/day when I sent it back, though my AD. It came back 6 weeks later mechanically all better, and not polished or anything. It's now +0.5/s/day ad has had no more problems. As per procedure, Rolex didn't disclose the nature of the problem, only that it was given a full service under warranty.

[shawn13ca]

A lot do. Rolex quality control is random at best.

[zesty55]

My 116710 had to go in two years in, started stopping occasionally when setting down or picking up. In discussing w/ my dealer sounded like most Rolexes didn't need to exercise the warranty, but by no means rare. 1/100k must be ballparks off.

[slillestrand]

If you keep them long enough, they will all eventually go in for service.

Within first 3 years, I'm batting .500 on my collection.... I have sent in 3 for service.

Scott

[Atone]

Originally Posted by Soultime

This question came up in another thread and I am interested to know.

Someone said they reckon it is less than 1/100,000.
I said in that case I must be really unlucky.....

I have owned 5 Rolex and 2 went in under warranty, (one 2 Yr warranty / one 5 year warranty) and one needed work just out of warranty.

What's others experience?

how would anyone know the answer to that?

[17noir]

Owning over 10 Rolex sports models in more than 10 years. Only once for service on my GMT IIc (after 2 yr warranty period), and once for SD43 due to speck of dust on the dial.

[Soultime]

Originally Posted by Atone

how would anyone know the answer to that?

?
They would get to the end of this thread, read the answers from TRF members and then make an educated guess.
The people on this board probably have the widest range of experiences of any group of people outside Rolex themselves.

It's probably the closest we will get. And Rolex ain't gonna tell us.

And the reason I am interested is I think the person who quoted a figure of <1:100,000 is light years off the mark.
I doubt there are even a 100k watches owned by all the members on TRF and we constantly get posts about watches going in for warranty work.

[Soultime]

Originally Posted by slillestrand

If you keep them long enough, they will all eventually go in for service.

Within first 3 years, I'm batting .500 on my collection.... I have sent in 3 for service.

Scott

Not really asking about whether people eventually send their watches in for a service though in this thread.

Question is about how many go back to Rolex for repair under warranty.

[Aidanb]

My 2016 216570 (EXP II) stopped a couple of times for no reason. As it was under warranty I got a local AD to return it to Rolex UK. After 7 weeks it returned and was running perfectly. Repair explanation: Movement regulated, the escapement has been lubricated and a new glass has been fitted.
That was 10 days ago. Unfortunately it stopped working again last night. I didn't even attempt to wind it. I've arranged to drop it back to the AD who in turn will return it to Rolex UK. This is what feeds cynicism. I'm NOT IMPRESSED.

[Ferdelious]

My guess would be between 1-3%, which still isn't bad.

[abozz]

I have Never ever after 30 years wearing Rolex had a problem with this marvelous mechanical machines.

Maybe I'm lucky.

My last buy:

-2 seconds a day in my 3235 after 1 year.

Enviado desde mi SM-G975F mediante Tapatalk

[Bozack90]

two out of five for me, one had cosmetic issues with a dial, and the second would vibrate when you "swirled" it to wind it like a mainspring letting out or the rotor wobbling...in retrospect I should have never sent the one back for the dial as it came back far worse than it went in but live and learn.

[KingKitega]

I sent my explorer back as it was suddenly gaining 4s a day after being consistently +1 over the year I had it. Now it's back from RSC, it's running +0.4spd. Happy chappie here.

[Tools]

I think 9; I could be wrong though.

[Fred48]

Another question might be how many Rolex compared to other high end brands?

[GMT Aviator]

My ceramic GMT LN went back after two years as it stopped.
A gear had to be replaced inside the movement.
Don’t know why it broke but suspect because I jump the hour hand maybe more than most or I was just unlucky?
Despite all of the above, fixed under warranty without question and has been fine since. It’s also incredibly accurate both before and after.

[Freespeach]

As very general rule of thumb from a finance forecasting perspective for a high quality product... you would plan that 20% of all watches produced in any one year would see some sort of warranty work within the 5 year warranty period. 5% per year

So if Rolex produces 800K watches per year 40K watches need some type of service work per year that is charged back to Rolex. Either from RSC or AD.

But Rolex extended the warranty from 2 to 5 years so maybe the failure rate is less.

However, that is if you believe the various reports that Rolex produces 800K watches per year. Which I personally do not believe.

The way the 800K was determined was that Rolex would request aprox. 800K COSC certificates per year. Rolex requests the certificates (certification), i.e. securing the number...by having the movement tested ..but there is no way on knowing if Rolex actually uses all movements tested nor know what the pass rate was...

Rolex also has a higher standard than COSC so even if a movement passed certification it may not pass the higher Rolex standard and therefore not be used.

Which brings us back to how many watches Rolex actually produces each year.
Only Rolex knows. Kinda of like...what will 2020 bring...a new or discontinued Hulk,
a purple Daytona, maybe an orange GMT.

In case you are wondering... Rolex petitioned and demanded that the information with regards to the number of certifications that were performed by brand no longer be made publicly available. So 2015 was the last model year for which that information was released.

[Steerpike999]

I wonder how many of us (WIS / Forum members) send their watches back for being out of Superlative Chronometer spec (my watch is gaining / losing x secs per day....) as opposed to the more common (vast majority) of Rolex buyers who buy and wear and never check their watch against an Atomic clock over a period of days? I say this because I believe that we are over-represented on this forum with warranty claims.