Economy must be strong - waaaay more AP activity on here

[robbonds]

than a couple years ago...Seems like many people (including myself) have moved up from brands like Rolex to Patek and AP.

There seems to be a significant increase in activity on this AP board. A couple years ago we would be lucky to get 2-3 new threads a day.

And yes, this post is relevant to AP and something I have been thinking about recently (amateur economist). Goes to the scarcity of watches and my desire for the new Blue 15500 (at msrp of course)

[inadeje]

I am just in the process of buying my first AP, Panda white dial RO.

[zly512]

Originally Posted by inadeje

I am just in the process of buying my first AP, Panda white dial RO.

First AP too. Waiting for my 26574st to arrive next month

[Amiroo]

Originally Posted by robbonds

than a couple years ago...Seems like many people (including myself) have moved up from brands like Rolex to Patek and AP.

There seems to be a significant increase in activity on this AP board. A couple years ago we would be lucky to get 2-3 new threads a day.

And yes, this post is relevant to AP and something I have been thinking about recently (amateur economist). Goes to the scarcity of watches and my desire for the new Blue 15500 (at msrp of course)

10 years of Quantitative Easing, low interest rates, inflated asset prices and people feeling richer than they are will do that. It all comes down to this: Too much money chasing too few goods. If you told any sane person, no date subs are going 20% over retail. they would laugh at you.

[robbonds]

Originally Posted by Amiroo

10 years of Quantitative Easing, low interest rates, inflated asset prices and people feeling richer than they are will do that. It all comes down to this: Too much money chasing too few goods. If you told any sane person, no date subs are going 20% over retail. they would laugh at you.

well said

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by Amiroo

10 years of Quantitative Easing, low interest rates, inflated asset prices and people feeling richer than they are will do that. It all comes down to this: Too much money chasing too few goods. If you told any sane person, no date subs are going 20% over retail. they would laugh at you.

Have to agree. If you told any sane person you were wearing high end jewelry and selling it used for a profit they would hedge their equities

[blown5.0]

Crazy times we live in!

[NYG1121]

I also think demand for SS watches is at all time high especially for Rolex. When those are going for so much above retail, people naturally have the attitude of “might as well pay a little bit more and just get an AP”

[jrs146]

It’s the heyday for SS watches. I wonder if it will ever be topped!


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[srvrf]

There has got to be multiple factors contributing to the rise other than supply constraints. I wonder if it is more of "the market is bouncing back so now is the time to go for it" or more like "SS Rolex/AP/PP seem like a pretty safe place to put money." Maybe a little of both.

[singe89]

Originally Posted by Amiroo

10 years of Quantitative Easing, low interest rates, inflated asset prices and people feeling richer than they are will do that. It all comes down to this: Too much money chasing too few goods. If you told any sane person, no date subs are going 20% over retail. they would laugh at you.

Agree but I would also add the rise of social media is bringing these brands to the masses and helping drive demand.

[ppalasthira]

Originally Posted by singe89

Agree but I would also add the rise of social media is bringing these brands to the masses and helping drive demand.

I agree with you on this.

I’ve gone PP. But I’m still getting another Rolex. So it’s just personal preference.

[Burlington]

Originally Posted by srvrf

There has got to be multiple factors contributing to the rise other than supply constraints. I wonder if it is more of "the market is bouncing back so now is the time to go for it" or more like "SS Rolex/AP/PP seem like a pretty safe place to put money." Maybe a little of both.

If the economy turns, mass produced watches are probably one of the worst assets going aside from a rare few.

It’s probably a combination of things - more brand awareness, more FOMO, more cash in the system.

Or maybe also more younger buyers who are more likely to join an online forum to share tips, stories and photos.

[ezinhk]

Rappers, internet, China. Wait...elite Chinese wear RM.

[tyler1980]

i wouldn't take that as any evidence the economy is strong. maybe that income is being concentrated more at the top end. The economy isn't great for most workers and wages are very stagnant compared to income growth farther up the ladder.

kind of like saying record low unemployment means things are "good". That depends on what the jobs people are taking are, and what they pay. Looking at a rate of unemployment tells a very narrow story much like luxury watches many of which cost more than the median individual US annual salary.

People tend to look at their personal situation and apply it to the economy as a whole.

[mr_gray]

i bought recently and what motivated me was FOMO. i had been out of watches for a couple of years and coming back i was worried that RO (for example) would just become unaffordable to me if i waited for a "correction".

also i figured if i had to get out what was i going to lose on a discontinued RO (i bought 15400 white).

so whilst on the one hand i was/am concerned about a correction i was more concerned about missing out. my rationale for that (price increases that did not reverse to say 2016 levels) was more people on the planet, more awareness and a limited number of nice watches plus new restrictions on selling.

i don't regret the decision right now because it such a nice watch. i do wish i'd had the moxy to buy it in 2016 when it was around half the price i just paid :-)

[AK797]

Originally Posted by GB-man

Have to agree. If you told any sane person you were wearing high end jewelry and selling it used for a profit they would hedge their equities

Before we used to say how much better Rolexes were than cars because they held their value so it wouldn't really cost you anything, but now we can say this luxury watch will also make you money, serious money in some cases, so inevitable the spiral perpetuates itself with newbies attracted in all the time as they always do to rising markets.

The main difference with stock markets is watch market makers can't make much money from falling prices, no shorting, and there are no institutions looking to turn the tide of the market in their favour, so the rise continues and without much to oppose it as we continually see, until something seismic happens.

[erickucla]

This is all trump's fault.

[benjamin831]

Rich are getting richer, the poor are getting poorer. I see it everywhere, Hong Kong, LA, NYC. That's just the world we live in.

[Cru Jones]

There also are a lot more cheaper Seiko incomings.... maybe the economy is getting worse? ;-)

It’s just an Internet forum guys... an infinitely small percentage of the watch buying public. I don’t think one can make any generalizations about global market forces based on a couple extra threads.

[Mystro]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

i wouldn't take that as any evidence the economy is strong. maybe that income is being concentrated more at the top end. The economy isn't great for most workers and wages are very stagnant compared to income growth farther up the ladder.

kind of like saying record low unemployment means things are "good". That depends on what the jobs people are taking are, and what they pay. Looking at a rate of unemployment tells a very narrow story much like luxury watches many of which cost more than the median individual US annual salary.

People tend to look at their personal situation and apply it to the economy as a whole.

Lowest unemployment in 35 years and median income wages are up in the USA. The middle class has money and economic confidence. That’s not a accident.

[AK797]

Originally Posted by benjamin831

Rich are getting richer, the poor are getting poorer. I see it everywhere, Hong Kong, LA, NYC. That's just the world we live in.

This has always been the case, but we've never seen it so transparently displayed/thrown in your face before, and that is why we are seeing more Robin Hood civil unrest, even in chasing the dream America, people are finally wising up that this is really a closed shop with trickle up economics.

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by Mystro

Lowest unemployment in 35 years and median income wages are up in the USA. The middle class has money and economic confidence. That’s not a accident.

wage growth of the middle class is way sluggish and has been for a real long time. Up the ladder, not so much.

Economic "confidence" of the middle class is very disconnected from reality. They may feel more confident during some periods and less confident during others even though their wages are pretty much the same in both instances. Tax cuts are a case in point. They didn't actually get a reduction, but thinking they did makes all the difference. Tax refund time and most in the middle class finally sees their refund basically disappear.

[porschejeff]

Originally Posted by NYG1121

I also think demand for SS watches is at all time high especially for Rolex. When those are going for so much above retail, people naturally have the attitude of “might as well pay a little bit more and just get an AP”

Exactly...that's why I bought an AP

[Wahlberg]

The youth can't buy a house so they stay and live at home and save up. They need 200-300k minimum to get something so in the meantime they can miss 10k.

[mickyd329]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

wage growth of the middle class is way sluggish and has been for a real long time. Up the ladder, not so much.

Economic "confidence" of the middle class is very disconnected from reality. They may feel more confident during some periods and less confident during others even though their wages are pretty much the same in both instances. Tax cuts are a case in point. They didn't actually get a reduction, but thinking they did makes all the difference. Tax refund time and most in the middle class finally sees their refund basically disappear.

I will have to correct you there a little bit Tyler. Tax refunds are smaller because they had less taxes withheld from their paychecks due to the new tax laws. I see it with my employees. Their withholdings even with the same amount of dependants went down. They will likely see a smaller refund check, but the total dollars they got to keep in total did increase.

On that same note, I agree with you on the middle class wage stagnation. The wealth disparity between the haves and have nots is getting wider.

[seanneok11]

Maybe it’s because Rolex prices are getting ridiculous might as well go to ap at this price point

[4therightcause]

Economy is strong and Rolex is getting so outrageous that it is pushing me to loon at my first AP.