Market and COVID improving inventory in the US?

[kwr]

FWIW I've seen (or gotten a call on) 114060's from 3 different AD's in the past 10 days. including 1 here in NYC at the flagship Torneau. I didn't pull the trigger on any as I'm holding out for a BLRO/BLNR so hopefully one of you got lucky. Either way it may be a sign that the theories of better inventory in the US may actually be playing out. Happy hunting...

[El-Duderino]

I was told the same by my AD this week on the two pieces I am still waiting on. Seems odd that the virus/quarantine would impact such a huge swath of that specific demographic in Asia to free up supplies in the US, but I’ve given up trying to figure out how all of this works with Rolex.

[Burlington]

I guess it’s more to do with people not wanting to allocate spend to this type of good right now.

[Rgd5000]

One more data point potentially suggesting this is true.

Got the call from Tourneau yesterday (major city, but not NYC) to come pick up a BLNR...wait was ~5 months

Was shocked because my purchase history with them is pretty light (2 other SS watches)


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[dimag333]

I actually think sales are just down and sales people are shooting fish in a barrel, little to no history, easy sale, but that’s just me

steve

[slus]

I believe it. An AD that completely blew me off when I asked for an SD43 over a year ago called me up and offered first a DSSD, then a week or so later an SD43. I passed it to the next guy in line but was very shocked, I couldn't get the time of day from these guys last year without purchase history.

[OrangeKenny]

There was an article on hodinkee recently about the downturn in the watch market in Asia. Predicted to hit hard, but for a Rolex I imagine they can just shift supply of sports watches to other markets and keep up their sales numbers.

[watchuneedthemost]

Asia and a lot of Europe are either in a recession or the brink of it. Luxury goods are the first to get cut out. The US economy is doing pretty well saving the beating the market has taken the the past week or so. I think that explains inventory shifting to parts of the world where there is still demand. COVID I don't think is playing a part here, at least not a major one.

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[Crazy Lugs]

I can confirm the NYC market seems significantly improved, having done the rounds last weekend and seeing stainless DJ41’s in the cases, which I haven’t seen in well over a year...

[SLWoodster]

It sucks that people have to die for the hype to go away... but looks like that's what it has to take.

I would like to request COVID to stop the ads for the watch trading classes, disable the instagram accounts for stainless steel market trends, any users referring to watches as investments, any profiles displaying more than 1 watch with captions including "PM for price"

[myc ritz]

My guess is new movement on Subs coming. They're moving those Bad Larry's.

[bay-dweller]

More anecdotal evidence, Bob's Watches used to list most of their trade in prices, but now pretty much all model say "Call Us"

[mykii]

Originally Posted by Crazy Lugs

I can confirm the NYC market seems significantly improved, having done the rounds last weekend and seeing stainless DJ41’s in the cases, which I haven’t seen in well over a year...

I dunno, I don't see any change in NYC personally. No calls, either.

[dimag333]

Originally Posted by mykii

I dunno, I don't see any change in NYC personally. No calls, either.

Unloading all the surplus on new buyers, why hit guys with history and larger wallets with subs, at least that’s what I think from a sales perspective. Makes total sense, it’s almost like lead acquisition

steve

[interestedwatcher]

The average incomings for SS in the 3 months preceding February -

44.3


Incomings for February

62

A 40 percent increase


https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=728474

[stlwatchlvr]

Originally Posted by bay-dweller

More anecdotal evidence, Bob's Watches used to list most of their trade in prices, but now pretty much all model say "Call Us"

This is very interesting


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[AshCashEmAll]

probably has to do with the the loss of demand in the asian market.

[randypandy007]

I live in Singapore and don't feel that there's a lack of buyers here! I'm frequently checking with local AD's and they don't have any SS sport models.

China almost certainly is having an impact though the rest of Asia is able to buy and has the means.

[Ticknaway]

It may be that the ADs are extremely worried about the potential of an economic slowdown and are just trying to liquidate the watches they been keeping in the safes. If you think about when NASA can take a satellite picture over china and see a dramatic decrease in pollution emitted for industrial plants, its a good chance things might get rough.

[Hellrot]

Personally speaking, if COVID-19 is going to cause the level of negative impact on the stock market or real estate market as the '08 recession or the '03 SARS, then I'd rather put my disposable money into those markets (and wait out that eventual rebound and profit) versus grab yet another watch from the grey.

[Yess]

Originally Posted by randypandy007

I live in Singapore and don't feel that there's a lack of buyers here! I'm frequently checking with local AD's and they don't have any SS sport models.

China almost certainly is having an impact though the rest of Asia is able to buy and has the means.

I agree - there was nothing in Singapore/HK when I was there in Feb. I can't see why they would ship more to USA and less to Asia (where the market is much, much larger than the USA) - given that supply far outstrips demand there (like everywhere)?

[Speedfreek28]

Even with all this hoopla going on, I’m still waiting for the call for a SD43 in all stainless :/ hope it comes it soon but in all seriousness I hope and pray this coronavirus passes and every one starts to feel better and the economy ramps up again. I’d rather wait a long time for a watch knowing the economy is well and people are thriving and enjoying their life. So wash those hands family!

[TudorBeast]

I believe this is true. I just got called from an AD today to get on the "list" for the next or the next next BLRO Jubilee that comes in. I have no purchase history with them so it was very surprising/exciting to get this call from them.

[Tavli3]

Don't overlook the obvious. This is a worldwide event and soon there will be no safe place to shift inventory.

The combination of market rout and virus threat has caused lasting structural damage to China. Hong Kong has an added issue which were the protests. Two huge markets vaporized.
Now S Korea market-Done also
Italy market quickly going from Al Dente to over cooked mush.

How long before people begin to view shopping for anything as risk not worth taking. It won't be long before going to malls is not recommended(Lots of people from who knows where).

Rolex can read the writing on the wall better than most and I think what its telling them is not good. Same for some retailers who've been stashing watches in their safe. Best to unload what you can while you can at full MSRP.

There's a tsunami of inventory sitting on grey dealer shelves, what happens when they need to/forced to unload. ADs may have to discount again if market becomes saturated with watches that no one cares about because they now are focused on a real and present danger to their lifestyles and even actual lives. You think anyone is running around China bragging about scoring a Blue Sky D, don't think so and I think they couldn't care less about it right now. People will be no different everywhere else the virus breaks out in national way. Imagine you're a restaurant owner or retailer in Seattle and now your market place is a ghost town, no customers. I bet your priority went from getting that White Daytona to figuring out how you're going to keep paying the rent for God only knows length of time. That unknown factor will be truly frightening and watches, any and all watches will fade from most people's daily thought process.

We have a long way to go in regards to virus infections and to increasing of SS supply. Both will be going up for sure. It's obvious, sometimes when things are so obvious we tend to not accept them for whatever reason.

PS: Don't worry about most grays or ADs, they've made so much money last 3 years they have a nice cushion to ride out the storm but simple business prudence will want them to minimize how much they give back and will take the necessary steps which will equate to opportunities for us if we're still interested at the time. For me Blue Sky D and White Daytona has gone from front and center of my mind to the middle and marching onward towards the back.

Good luck to all in your watch hunting and to the safety of you and your families.

[Tavli3]

PS: Last night at Papi's Steakhouse in Miami, jammed nonstop. Nobody worrying about the virus or market here. Yet. Will be a good canary in the coal mine indicator when they are empty on a Friday night. Although I did hear that one very popular restaurant that is busy 24/7 all year round was half empty one night during the week. This was a significant bit of news as far as I was concerned, this place has never not been busy ever. So maybe it's just starting.

[Crazy Lugs]

Originally Posted by Tavli3

Don't overlook the obvious. This is a worldwide event and soon there will be no safe place to shift inventory.

The combination of market rout and virus threat has caused lasting structural damage to China. Hong Kong has an added issue which were the protests. Two huge markets vaporized.
Now S Korea market-Done also
Italy market quickly going from Al Dente to over cooked mush.

How long before people begin to view shopping for anything as risk not worth taking. It won't be long before going to malls is not recommended(Lots of people from who knows where).

Rolex can read the writing on the wall better than most and I think what its telling them is not good. Same for some retailers who've been stashing watches in their safe. Best to unload what you can while you can at full MSRP.

There's a tsunami of inventory sitting on grey dealer shelves, what happens when they need to/forced to unload. ADs may have to discount again if market becomes saturated with watches that no one cares about because they now are focused on a real and present danger to their lifestyles and even actual lives. You think anyone is running around China bragging about scoring a Blue Sky D, don't think so and I think they couldn't care less about it right now. People will be no different everywhere else the virus breaks out in national way. Imagine you're a restaurant owner or retailer in Seattle and now your market place is a ghost town, no customers. I bet your priority went from getting that White Daytona to figuring out how you're going to keep paying the rent for God only knows length of time. That unknown factor will be truly frightening and watches, any and all watches will fade from most people's daily thought process.

We have a long way to go in regards to virus infections and to increasing of SS supply. Both will be going up for sure. It's obvious, sometimes when things are so obvious we tend to not accept them for whatever reason.

PS: Don't worry about most grays or ADs, they've made so much money last 3 years they have a nice cushion to ride out the storm but simple business prudence will want them to minimize how much they give back and will take the necessary steps which will equate to opportunities for us if we're still interested at the time. For me Blue Sky D and White Daytona has gone from front and center of my mind to the middle and marching onward towards the back.

Good luck to all in your watch hunting and to the safety of you and your families.

Fantastic post and one of the few these days worth reading twice.

[jakjakman]

Originally Posted by Crazy Lugs

Fantastic post and one of the few these days worth reading twice.

I agree.

The upside is that if you've saved during the last few years and have the cash set aside and your other preparation priorities in order, this might be a good time to stop by the AD and let them know that you're still interested in the piece you're on the list for regardless if things get a bit crazy in the coming weeks/month.

[Tavli3]

Ok so here's a great article. Just substitute the word Lobster with Watch.
Key points: Huge weekly shipments from Canada to Korea diverted to US, US market saturated, prices plunging.
Orders from Hong Kong & China evaporated, lobster wholesalers facing layoff of employees.
It may take a little longer to manifest with watches due to the heavy backlog but the same forces are in effect so its only when and not if. Once people's priorities are reset then you will see the market effects.

If you're in a position where this whole thing will have no effect on you, you'll be in a great position to pick up some grails!

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/virus...120000170.html

[Overwound]

Nice!

Ok everyone...it's our turn. When they call saying watches are back in stock let them know you have a three month delay on decision making but can put them on your answers "list".

[fed_fan]

Originally Posted by SLWoodster

It sucks that people have to die for the hype to go away... but looks like that's what it has to take.

I would like to request COVID to stop the ads for the watch trading classes, disable the instagram accounts for stainless steel market trends, any users referring to watches as investments, any profiles displaying more than 1 watch with captions including "PM for price"

Haha totally agree on the "watch trading classes" piece...I would love to meet the person that pays for the course.

It's like the "professional" house flippers giving seminars in '07 before the housing bust or CNBC hacks doing the same in '99 before the dot com crash.