Talking Stocks 2.0

[7sins]

Originally Posted by chsu74

Crossing fingers. I believe AUPH is at a very different place today than it was prior to FDA approval earlier this year. Complete A2 data will further redefine its worth in the marketplace.

That is correct but it is interesting if you take a deeper dive. It is a quadruple blind study (clear indication of the confidence the company has in the drug) so no one has access to the data. If you are BMY, you would not make an offer or sign the dotted line without the full 36 month data which also includes final response rate and p values, both are important and were not included in the stellar 30 month data.

Lets put all of that aside. The current SoC is Benlysta which data failed at 24 months. Either way we have a superior FDA approved drug to what is available and it is oral vs IV which is significant. So even if 36 month A2 data comes back okay or less than expectations, stock will drop but won't kill future sales. It would lower the BO valuation or positive 36 month A2 would increase the valuation even higher. The full 36 month A2 data was concluded I believe on Oct 7th, we should have the results in the next few weeks.

Premiums here are rather absurd, I am writing covered calls on my individual stock position and then I am stacked across the board on all 2023 strikes with a BE lower than $35. Just my .02 here, not financial advice, but an interesting story and think even without BO the future is very bright although this company was built specifically to be sold.

Have a great weekend everyone. See you boys in Vegas, hopefully sooner than later.

[jaisonline]

Today was one of those days where 90% of the green in my portfolio were Covered Calls that all expire in Dec.

Was down nearly 5% at one point. Walked away & starting building the large Lego Ghostbusters Ecto-1 set to get away from stocks. Also drove the wife and kids around.

Finished the day just under -1.6% which is kinda a “win” I assume.

[904VT]

Originally Posted by logo

Im not sure there is bias toward South Africa. We know there is an outbreak in South Africa (I.e. epidemic). While cases can certainly be seen elsewhere, an epidemic in one location and no others usually suggests either a change in virulence of a local pathogen, a change in the host population susceptibility, or the introduction of an infection to a new location. I don’t know enough about South Africa to say, but regardless of whether it started in South Africa or not, South Africa is the reason it is of concern.

Interesting news coming. Botswana is claiming cases originated (or were observed there) and those positive were 4 diplomats on a diplomatic mission that have since returned to their own country. Country where those diplomats are from was not disclosed. All info mentioned is public in their press releases from their Ministry of Health & Wellness. The media’s claims conflict. Someone not being accurate. Seems like more broad market volatility potentially in the days ahead as digested.

[logo]

Originally Posted by 904VT

Interesting news coming. Botswana is claiming cases originated (or were observed there) and those positive were 4 diplomats on a diplomatic mission that have since returned to their own country. Country where those diplomats are from was not disclosed. All info mentioned is public in their press releases from their Ministry of Health & Wellness. The media’s claims conflict. Someone not being accurate. Seems like more broad market volatility potentially in the days ahead as digested.

That is interesting, we shall see what comes of this in the days ahead.

Have a nice weekend everyone.

[logo]

Dip buyers rejoice. As I have mentioned, variants are to be expected. Knowing about them early is a positive, but just because there is a local outbreak it does not automatically mean doom and gloom globally. Sell off likely overdone on hype. https://www.republicworld.com/amp/wo...-symptoms.html


In an interesting development, Angelique Coetzee, the chairwoman of the South African Medical Association, has said that the new variant of the B.1.1.529, also known as the ‘Omicron variant’, results in “mild disease without prominent symptoms”, as per Sputnik.

"It presents mild disease with symptoms being sore muscles and tiredness for a day or two not feeling well. So far, we have detected that those infected do not suffer the loss of taste or smell. They might have a slight cough. There are no prominent symptoms. Of those infected some are currently being treated at home", Coetzee told the news agency.

The official also added that the hospitals are not yet overburdened with the patients carrying this variant. Coetzee said that the variant won’t affect people who are fully vaccinated but the situation “might be different” for the unvaccinated.

She also remarked that the medical association is looking into it and that they’ll get to know about this variant only after two weeks. “Yes, it is transmissible, but for now, as medical practitioners, we do not know why so much hype is being driven as we are still looking into it. We will only know after two to three weeks as there are some patients admitted and these are young people aged 40 and younger," she said.

[chsu74]

Originally Posted by logo

Dip buyers rejoice. As I have mentioned, variants are to be expected. Knowing about them early is a positive, but just because there is a local outbreak it does not automatically mean doom and gloom globally. Sell off likely overdone on hype. https://www.republicworld.com/amp/wo...-symptoms.html


In an interesting development, Angelique Coetzee, the chairwoman of the South African Medical Association, has said that the new variant of the B.1.1.529, also known as the ‘Omicron variant’, results in “mild disease without prominent symptoms”, as per Sputnik.

"It presents mild disease with symptoms being sore muscles and tiredness for a day or two not feeling well. So far, we have detected that those infected do not suffer the loss of taste or smell. They might have a slight cough. There are no prominent symptoms. Of those infected some are currently being treated at home", Coetzee told the news agency.

The official also added that the hospitals are not yet overburdened with the patients carrying this variant. Coetzee said that the variant won’t affect people who are fully vaccinated but the situation “might be different” for the unvaccinated.

She also remarked that the medical association is looking into it and that they’ll get to know about this variant only after two weeks. “Yes, it is transmissible, but for now, as medical practitioners, we do not know why so much hype is being driven as we are still looking into it. We will only know after two to three weeks as there are some patients admitted and these are young people aged 40 and younger," she said.

Agree but keep in mind that this lady is not a scientist so deeper dive into facts may change this narrative. I did not sell yesterday and day traded a bit.

We all know that flu virus mutates every season and the flu shots available are hit or miss. The original SARS in early 2000s mutated itself out of existence back then. No one knows where this road is taking us but we should all keep history in mind while exercising prudence.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by logo

Dip buyers rejoice. As I have mentioned, variants are to be expected. Knowing about them early is a positive, but just because there is a local outbreak it does not automatically mean doom and gloom globally. Sell off likely overdone on hype. https://www.republicworld.com/amp/wo...-symptoms.html


In an interesting development, Angelique Coetzee, the chairwoman of the South African Medical Association, has said that the new variant of the B.1.1.529, also known as the ‘Omicron variant’, results in “mild disease without prominent symptoms”, as per Sputnik.

"It presents mild disease with symptoms being sore muscles and tiredness for a day or two not feeling well. So far, we have detected that those infected do not suffer the loss of taste or smell. They might have a slight cough. There are no prominent symptoms. Of those infected some are currently being treated at home", Coetzee told the news agency.

The official also added that the hospitals are not yet overburdened with the patients carrying this variant. Coetzee said that the variant won’t affect people who are fully vaccinated but the situation “might be different” for the unvaccinated.

She also remarked that the medical association is looking into it and that they’ll get to know about this variant only after two weeks. “Yes, it is transmissible, but for now, as medical practitioners, we do not know why so much hype is being driven as we are still looking into it. We will only know after two to three weeks as there are some patients admitted and these are young people aged 40 and younger," she said.

i read that so far there's no evidence that the vaccines are any less effective vs it and also pfizer said they have a process to develop a new vaccine within 100 days. hopefully this is actually the case but it's sad that the media is blowing this up with no data to back anything up yet. it's so crazy to me that they can move markets this much and that easily while clickbaiting and being careless

[chsu74]

Originally Posted by 7sins

That is correct but it is interesting if you take a deeper dive. It is a quadruple blind study (clear indication of the confidence the company has in the drug) so no one has access to the data. If you are BMY, you would not make an offer or sign the dotted line without the full 36 month data which also includes final response rate and p values, both are important and were not included in the stellar 30 month data.

Lets put all of that aside. The current SoC is Benlysta which data failed at 24 months. Either way we have a superior FDA approved drug to what is available and it is oral vs IV which is significant. So even if 36 month A2 data comes back okay or less than expectations, stock will drop but won't kill future sales. It would lower the BO valuation or positive 36 month A2 would increase the valuation even higher. The full 36 month A2 data was concluded I believe on Oct 7th, we should have the results in the next few weeks.

Premiums here are rather absurd, I am writing covered calls on my individual stock position and then I am stacked across the board on all 2023 strikes with a BE lower than $35. Just my .02 here, not financial advice, but an interesting story and think even without BO the future is very bright although this company was built specifically to be sold.

Have a great weekend everyone. See you boys in Vegas, hopefully sooner than later.

My last comment on AUPH as everyone here knows my position and cost. Script numbers this past week was second highest. Notable is the NRx which is the number of new perscriptions vs TRx(total perscriptions.). TRx will follow NRx from refills.




AUPH’s balance sheet is healthy as they are projected to be profitable Q3 ‘22. As long as the prescription numbers continue to grow then it is still a good investment should they decide to go it alone. Vertex decided to go it alone in 2005 at $4B MC. It is a $45B MC 16 years later.

Hope AUPH earns drug of the year award Dec 2.. That will further help it to become the standard of care choice for LN.

[logo]

Originally Posted by chsu74

Agree but keep in mind that this lady is not a scientist so deeper dive into facts may change this narrative. I did not sell yesterday and day traded a bit.

We all know that flu virus mutates every season and the flu shots available are hit or miss. The original SARS in early 2000s mutated itself out of existence back then. No one knows where this road is taking us but we should all keep history in mind while exercising prudence.

No doubt, but her position is analogous to the American Medical Association chair so I do not think she would be saying these statements without fair justification. I would also suggest that while basic science and virology may tell us all sorts of theoretical aspects about a particular virus, how it behaves in the wild (epidemiology) and how it specifically affects humans is a different thing altogether.

More to unfold of course, but I think her statement is important.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by chsu74

My last comment on AUPH as everyone here knows my position and cost. Script numbers this past week was second highest. Notable is the NRx which is the number of new perscriptions vs TRx(total perscriptions.). TRx will follow NRx from refills.




AUPH’s balance sheet is healthy as they are projected to be profitable Q3 ‘22. As long as the prescription numbers continue to grow then it is still a good investment should they decide to go it alone. Vertex decided to go it alone in 2005 at $4B MC. It is a $45B MC 16 years later.

Hope AUPH earns drug of the year award Dec 2.. That will further help it to become the standard of care choice for LN.

I am buying everyone this for our TRF vegas trip

[chsu74]

Originally Posted by 7sins

I am buying everyone this for our TRF vegas trip

I certainly would love to have that in my possession brother!

[chsu74]

Originally Posted by logo

No doubt, but her position is analogous to the American Medical Association chair so I do not think she would be saying these statements without fair justification. I would also suggest that while basic science and virology may tell us all sorts of theoretical aspects about a particular virus, how it behaves in the wild (epidemiology) and how it specifically affects humans is a different thing altogether.

More to unfold of course, but I think her statement is important.

Believe you may be right logo..

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-h...says-symptoms/

[MrGoat]

Originally Posted by 7sins

I am buying everyone this for our TRF vegas trip

Yep I’d wear it, just put in a buy order today. Hopefully it gets filled Monday.


Sent from my Apple privacy invasion product

[Mendota]

Very interesting. Just now doing some DD on AUPH. Might join you guys and pick up some LEAPS calls and some shares.

Sent from my SM-G986U using Tapatalk

[scarlet knight]

What are we in for tomorrow?

[huncho]

paypal now at a 52 week low. wasn't it one of the few stocks actually green for some time on friday?

[huncho]

@chsu74

i closed viacom and just took the giant L here. naturally i imagine it will start going up now so i took the sacrifice for you lol. spread it out between sofi and visa leaps. feel like i just can't watch it go down every day anymore and might as well do some tax harvesting

[chsu74]

Originally Posted by huncho

@chsu74

i closed viacom and just took the giant L here. naturally i imagine it will start going up now so i took the sacrifice for you lol. spread it out between sofi and visa leaps. feel like i just can't watch it go down every day anymore and might as well do some tax harvesting

I am going over the P&L in my cash account today as well to plan how much of VIAC to sell.

Thinking I will keep some positions in my Roth and IRA accounts because abuse keeps me grounded..

[huncho]

Originally Posted by chsu74

I am going over the P&L in my cash account today as well to plan how much of VIAC to sell.

Thinking I will keep some positions in my Roth and IRA accounts because abuse keeps me grounded..

yeah i feel like eventually it goes up, but i'd rather just use the money elsewhere for now. valuation doesn't make sense one bit but guess wall street has it out for the stock

[gabrielnovar]

credit card companies imploding is actually a great concern

PYPL, MA & VISA. lets hope this is just a dip and not a full blown collapse in the economy.

[huncho]

absolutely rough last few days

[chsu74]

Originally Posted by huncho

yeah i feel like eventually it goes up, but i'd rather just use the money elsewhere for now. valuation doesn't make sense one bit but guess wall street has it out for the stock

We look like geniuses selling VIAC yesterday.

[CoveWatch]

Originally Posted by huncho

absolutely rough last few days

feel you.. its been painful to look at.. I almost changed my name to Averaging Down because it seems thats all I've been doing... but then cash will run out soon and I won't even be doing that

[huncho]

Originally Posted by chsu74

We look like geniuses selling VIAC yesterday.

lol yeah only win this week it seems

Originally Posted by CoveWatch

feel you.. its been painful to look at.. I almost changed my name to Averaging Down because it seems thats all I've been doing... but then cash will run out soon and I won't even be doing that

yep same here. i'm actually out of money at this point so need to just let what i have ride. trying to think long term because i feel like we'll be fine in 3+ months time but it's been really brutal this month and with how fast it's getting worse there's thoughts that all the averaging down won't even help. i have everything invested at this point and i refuse to take money out of crypto to put into stocks

[7sins]

Not worried here, market will come and go in waves. Long term the economy will continue to grow, even if it gets knocked down along the way. We are still projecting US GDP growth at 5% next year and it looks like Omicron symptoms are mild https://finance.yahoo.com/news/omicr...164414502.html.

Lets see how this shakes out over the next few weeks but those in 2023/24 LEAPS should be more than fine. Some fire sales already to be had for anyone in cash.

Also as a side note, remember that $840 BILLION worth of treasury supply is being removed next year, this will offset the reduction in FED buying as they begin tapering asset purchases. Market for the last few years has overreacted both to the up and downside.

The below is a reminder to not panic, stay invested and DO NOT try to time the market by closing positions out of fear. Look at the substantial delta in return by just missing the best 5 days in the sp500 in 2020.

[chsu74]

I have been adding to my TBT position. Touched 16.2 earlier.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Not worried here, market will come and go in waves. Long term the economy will continue to grow, even if it gets knocked down along the way. We are still projecting US GDP growth at 5% next year and it looks like Omicron symptoms are mild https://finance.yahoo.com/news/omicr...164414502.html.

Lets see how this shakes out over the next few weeks but those in 2023/24 LEAPS should be more than fine. Some fire sales already to be had for anyone in cash.

Also as a side note, remember that $840 BILLION worth of treasury supply is being removed next year, this will offset the reduction in FED buying as they begin tapering asset purchases. Market for the last few years has overreacted both to the up and downside.

The below is a reminder to not panic, stay invested and DO NOT try to time the market by closing positions out of fear. Look at the substantial delta in return by just missing the best 5 days in the sp500 in 2020.

just means the vegas trip might be a little delayed lol

[7sins]

Originally Posted by huncho

just means the vegas trip might be a little delayed lol

I think some of us need a vegas trip now more than ever

[RidingDonkeys]

Nubank IPO is coming in lower than expected. Having worked in LATAM for two years now, I see a massive market for Nubank. I also think they're fairly priced right now. Dumped a bunch of Rivian today for a small gain with the intent of redirecting that money to Nubank. Rivian is just massively overvalued right now. I'll gladly buy in again, but it's going to be at a much lower price.

Sent from the voices in my head and transcribed by their drinking buddy.

[CoveWatch]

Originally Posted by RidingDonkeys

Nubank IPO is coming in lower than expected. Having worked in LATAM for two years now, I see a massive market for Nubank. I also think they're fairly priced right now. Dumped a bunch of Rivian today for a small gain with the intent of redirecting that money to Nubank. Rivian is just massively overvalued right now. I'll gladly buy in again, but it's going to be at a much lower price.

Sent from the voices in my head and transcribed by their drinking buddy.

Would be interested to know why you're bullish on them. I'm not familiar with Nubank but on the surface, it looks like they're going to be worth more than Brazil's current largest traditional lender even at the new lower valuation. Seems they also have about 30% more revenue than SOFI this year, yet will be priced at almost 3x the valuation (albeit a larger yoy growth rate) and further from being profitable.

I do love new companies and growth potential so would appreciate anything you can share.