Inventory Piling Up?

[cdubg21]

I have had 3 trusted sellers decline a purchase of my 114060 stating they already had several for sale at the current moment. There is nothing otherwise “wrong” with the watch. This leads me to believe inventory might not be moving as quickly. Just something interesting I wanted to share

[Seibei]

Be careful not to spark panic selling.

[bayerische]

Let's hope that is the case.

I'd say it is slowing down a bit. Daytonas and whatnot just not being pulled of the shelves any longer.

[Roger Lococco]

Prices are definitely coming down on the main site that I monitor.

[Rado63]

Look for another re seller or try to sell yourself. You can sell at lower price, all those guys have overhead of some type.

[DJTOSUB]

Originally Posted by cdubg21

I have had 3 trusted sellers decline a purchase of my 114060 stating they already had several for sale at the current moment. There is nothing otherwise “wrong” with the watch. This leads me to believe inventory might not be moving as quickly. Just something interesting I wanted to share

Why do you want to sell your 114060? And what price?

Trust me - one of the trusted sellers would buy it depending on the price. It all comes down to price.

[Fire bloke]

Big slow down ..Rolex are not selling at the prices they were 6 months ago..stock is not shifting. Noticed it in local pre owned shop and also internet sites I follow.. pre ceramic Daytona's and subs and SD43 are in the windows.. this would have gone in days earlier in the year

[Podmornica]

Wishful thinking for now, I know - but I hope those ADs will face the same situation they were in 2014. Perhaps even worse this time around once the demand or artificial shortage (whatever it is) cools off.

[amh]

Another sign. IMO the bubble deflate slowly as greys try to recoup their investments in a saturated market. Things will be normal again a year from now (ie. you'll be able to buy any SS model directly from your AD. But don't expect a discount.)

[77T]

There may be fewer buyers for the 114060. So demand could be down for that model but still hot for other models.

You could post your own FS listing and limit buyers to trusted ones.


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[42itus]

It's funny because I know a grey who is always talking about how he can't keep anything in stock and he's always posting wrist shots with exotic cars, but when I offered to sell him something he said he would normally offer more than retail but he could only offer me significantly lower than retail at that moment because he "had too many" of that reference at the moment. I'm in business so I understand that buying low is the key to making money but I don't appreciate talking out of both sides of your mouth.

My point is, if someone is trying to make money through you take everything they say with a grain of salt.

[schoolboy]

I read a few days ago that someone tried selling a Daytona to a grey and the grey said they already have enough

We’ll see what happens

[fsprow]

Buy High, Sell Low.

The way the world works for the majority (me often included).

[clock]

One of the trusted sellers said a lot people are trying to sell their watches. Normally he would buy them (at the right price) but he's only selling on consignment.

[904VT]

Perhaps they're banking on Rolex releasing the first time-only next gen movement in the 124060 ....

[Khans14]

My point is, if someone is trying to make money through you take everything they say with a grain of salt.[/QUOTE]

Wise words.

[904VT]

Originally Posted by schoolboy

I read a few days ago that someone tried selling a Daytona to a grey and the grey said they already have enough

We’ll see what happens

Lol perhaps the resellers are starting to panic. They may know the watches and the market very well from a bottom up perspective, but from a top-down review they're a little late to the game. Discretionary spending is down globally. Cisco just took a tanking today in the markets. I've been saying for a while, those that play day-traders are going to get burned....badly.

[mjclark32]

They wouldn't even make an offer?

[Roger Lococco]

Originally Posted by 904VT

Lol perhaps the resellers are starting to panic. They may know the watches and the market very well from a bottom up perspective, but from a top-down review they're a little late to the game. Discretionary spending is down globally. Cisco just took a tanking today in the markets. I've been saying for a while, those that play day-traders are going to get burned....badly.

Remember that TV show Flip this House and the cottage industry behind it...

[Finslayer83]

Originally Posted by mjclark32

They wouldn't even make an offer?

This.

I'd wager it would fetch in the low 6k range from a TS.

[jackin_jill]

Theres a local grey dealer near me that I follow on social media. I can tell by his photos and updates that he is sitting on stock of these supposed hot pieces for weeks and sometimes even months on end.
He's had 3 BLNRs in stock for well over a month.

The only piece that I see fly out quickly is the BLRO.

[904VT]

Originally Posted by Roger Lococco

Remember that TV show Flip this House and the cottage industry behind it...

Ah I do. I remember everyone in the 90's thinking they were day-traders in the equity markets and them actually believing they knew what they were doing. And then the Tech bubble, Enron and so forth and so on happened. Today everyone just takes the exact opposite approach and indexes. Buying and selling in baskets is just as dangerous for the markets as day-trading. A little behavioral finance review shows the same problems in the Rolex market as late 90's equity markets....short-term owners and resellers are exhibiting ridiculous levels of "Endowment Effect"

[904VT]

Originally Posted by jackin_jill

Theres a local grey dealer near me that I follow on social media. I can tell by his photos and updates that he is sitting on stock of these supposed hot pieces for weeks and sometimes even months on end.
He's had 3 BLNRs in stock for well over a month.

The only piece that I see fly out quickly is the BLRO.

Let's just say his average cost of inventory is $11k for the current BLNR inventory. If he has 3 in stock and market prices for GMT Masters move back to around MSRP (keep in mind this is still a premium for pre-owned watches) then he will take a quick $6k loss on just that reference alone. LVc's are ridiculously overpriced too with embedded losses. Supposedly the color Green is looked at as a lucky color in China and has driven a good portion of LVc overall demand. That market demand is waning. Just a few years back LVc's sat in displays for a very long time.

All this is why collectors should only buy watches they intend to keep for the long-term

[MSchu]

The days of paying over msrp for regular pieces are over!
At least for today...

[904VT]

Originally Posted by MSchu

The days of paying over msrp for regular pieces are over!
At least for today...

Let's just say they are and if you were Rolex what would you do:

Basel 2020-Release updated 126619LB and 126618LB/LN in late expansion to maximize profit
2021-Release 126613LB/LN in an unclear market bottom
2022-Release 126610LN/LV to drive demand back to the brand in a Trough/market bottom and up the Sub model line and Professional Range

Hmmm

[MSchu]

What If I was rolex? I'd release a coke bezel gmt... and offer an all red ceramic bezel 114060...

[BillA]

Originally Posted by 42itus

It's funny because I know a grey who is always talking about how he can't keep anything in stock and he's always posting wrist shots with exotic cars, but when I offered to sell him something he said he would normally offer more than retail but he could only offer me significantly lower than retail at that moment because he "had too many" of that reference at the moment. I'm in business so I understand that buying low is the key to making money but I don't appreciate talking out of both sides of your mouth.

My point is, if someone is trying to make money through you take everything they say with a grain of salt.

So he is a BSer, what do you expect?
He has to say that because he wants you know how well he is doing.
I am sure he would buy your watch well below what you paid for it then turn around and sell at a premium.

[Waxtactic]

This news is fine by me. I've seen some AP prices come down too. It is however just specific models.

If they're saying no, then maybe the flippers will stop flipping or the prices will finally come down to something reasonable.

[Tavli3]

This is typical of these guys. Anytime you want to sell them something they find the slightest defect to knock your price down even if they need a 60 power loupe to see it. If no defects then there’s a lot of inventory and prices are down.

So take the other side of the trade and see if they’ll sell you something at a great discount.
Don’t count on it!!

I see prices edging down for buyers, looks like prices are getting slashed for sellers. Waiting to see prices slashed for buyers. If you’re looking to buy something you can’t get from your AD now’s a good time to low ball these guys. The big jewelry show in Miami is in 7 weeks. Last year there were dealers with piles of the same watches. Can’t wait to low ball them on all the blue sky dwellers and white Daytona’s that will be sitting in their cases.
Don’t expect any of them to hit my bid but then again I prefer to do business with my AD.

It’s a game of patience.


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[Rrpdc]

Fine with me, Enjoy your watch. I assume you bought to enjoy, not flip.