the Coronavirus outbreak thread

[77T]

Those are interesting articles.

The WSJ is a useful primer for anyone wanting a good overview.

The NYT leaves open a question. That is, all cultures eat wild creatures of some sort; why don’t bats in other parts of the world transfer novel coronaviruses to intermediate hosts? (except for camels in the Middle East).

Here in US, deer, waterfowl, antelope and other wild animals are hunted, processed and eaten. They live in regions with plenty of bats. Why haven’t those sources of wild meat become intermediate hosts?

Same is true in the rest of the Americas, Europe, Africa and Australia.

It’s a curiosity...


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[gtnator]

It is a curiosity. Maybe the answer is more simple than we realize, that there are certain animals, wild or otherwise, that are meant to be eaten by humans and some that are not.

I predict that very soon we will have the data/science to back up which animals humans can eat and which we cannot. Until we can scientifically prove it, then it remains “cultural” or religious preference. It’s just a matter of time as we crack genetic codes, use data science, powerful machine learning algorithms, which can presumably create a risk score for every type of creature that someone somewhere wants to eat.


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[Laszlo]

Yup, Italy locking down 16 million including their baseline industrial region until April (1-month) is surely media hype. Come on guys. They're doing this for reasons we don't understand yet. Rumors of revised 4% death rate and R0 of 3.5 to 6 is pretty alarming. Who the hell really knows what is going on but we are going to see this repeating all over the world. The media isn't driving lawmaker design making.

[superdog]

My 76 year old dad with massive heart issues and bigger respiratory issues is out and about.

I just called to say hello. He and my mother are out with a group getting dinner. Sounded packed.

[Laszlo]

Originally Posted by superdog

My 76 year old dad with massive heart issues and bigger respiratory issues is out and about.

I just called to say hello. He and my mother are out with a group getting dinner. Sounded packed.

It seems we need to protect our elders and its going to be up to us to help with that. I'm also concerned about my mum who is 70. It's going to be months (or less?) before its that wide spread. Hell, this thing could just literally die out overnight. I'm seriously more concerned about the economical impact though. I don't want bread lines and government handouts.

PS we went out to dinner and it was awesome. Not as upbeat as Jersey because we have cases here in SF, I think 12 now lol.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by Laszlo

Yup, Italy locking down 16 million including their baseline industrial region until April (1-month) is surely media hype. Come on guys. They're doing this for reasons we don't understand yet. Rumors of revised 4% death rate and R0 of 3.5 to 6 is pretty alarming. Who the hell really knows what is going on but we are going to see this repeating all over the world. The media isn't driving lawmaker design making.

Sadly, that’s a useless gesture.

If one person still has it after the lockdown, the spread will happen all over again.

Unless the brains involved come up with a vaccine this virus isn’t going to go away. If one person has it, it’ll spread again.

Imo, best bet is let it run its course while finding the cure.

[77T]

The FIS Alpine Ski World Cup Finals were canceled - scheduled for March 16-22 at Corrina d’Ampezzo, in Northern Italy. So many have contracted COVID-19 there that it is surprising.

For those that aren’t ski oriented, it’s like the Super Bowl of international skiing.


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[superdog]

Originally Posted by Laszlo

It seems we need to protect our elders and its going to be up to us to help with that. I'm also concerned about my mum who is 70. It's going to be months (or less?) before its that wide spread. Hell, this thing could just literally die out overnight. I'm seriously more concerned about the economical impact though. I don't want bread lines and government handouts.

PS we went out to dinner and it was awesome. Not as upbeat as Jersey because we have cases here in SF, I think 12 now lol.

Agree completely.

It’s the economic fallout that will really determine how bad this is.

Crazy times.

And fwiw, I went to a buddies bday party in the city tonight. Easiest and and out I’ve ever had. Cuomo declared state of emergency today. Seeing the ripple effects here too.

[superdog]

Still unable to cure the flu right?

I wonder if this has a cure.

[Laszlo]

Originally Posted by superdog

Sadly, that’s a useless gesture.

If one person still has it after the lockdown, the spread will happen all over again.

Unless the brains involved come up with a vaccine this virus isn’t going to go away. If one person has it, it’ll spread again.

Imo, best bet is let it run its course while finding the cure.

Agree but these lawmakers know this. They have the best minds in the world behind the math. It would have been easy to blend this into the seasonal flu stats. No questions asked. It's fairly obvious this is deeper. Who knows. But there's something amiss. It doesn't add up. The funny thing is last month I said the same thing. Just let it run its course. It makes complete sense. If it's just the flu or cold as they say. Burning currency surely doesn't sound good.

[77T]

Originally Posted by superdog

Still unable to cure the flu right?

I wonder if this has a cure.

I don’t think a cure is in the cards, but a vaccine for this new coronavirus will help the most vulnerable.

They do develop vaccines that fight the flu - and if flu didn’t mutate, you’d not see it anymore.

Had Polio, Smallpox, Measles, Mumps, Rubella, Tetanus, etc been able to mutate, we’d be in a similar spot with those diseases.

The thing that’s amazing here in US, only 30-40% get flu shots each year.


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[Laszlo]

Another note that crossed my mind is doctors on the front line are reporting up on the autopsies and seeing the incredible damage this virus is causing. The lawmakers are reacting to the data. Not the fear.

[77T]

Good point about the lung damage caused to the ones who succumbed.

But some recent research, if accurate, notes that even asymptomatic people testing positive still get lung damage.

From the study...
“In new research developments, a team from Wuhan, China, reports that even asymptomatic patients with COVID-19 pneumonia have abnormal lung findings on computed tomography (CT), and a group from Beijing noted that viral loads from infected patients appear to peak 5 to 6 days after symptom onset.”

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-persp...-loads-patient




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[Andad]

Originally Posted by 77T

Good point about the lung damage caused to the ones who succumbed.

But some recent research, if accurate, notes that even asymptomatic people testing positive still get lung damage.

From the study...
“In new research developments, a team from Wuhan, China, reports that even asymptomatic patients with COVID-19 pneumonia have abnormal lung findings on computed tomography (CT), and a group from Beijing noted that viral loads from infected patients appear to peak 5 to 6 days after symptom onset.”

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-persp...-loads-patient




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How can a patient with viral pneumonia caused by this virus be classed as asymptomatic?

[Laszlo]

Originally Posted by 77T

Good point about the lung damage caused to the ones who succumbed.

But some recent research, if accurate, notes that even asymptomatic people testing positive still get lung damage.

From the study...
“In new research developments, a team from Wuhan, China, reports that even asymptomatic patients with COVID-19 pneumonia have abnormal lung findings on computed tomography (CT), and a group from Beijing noted that viral loads from infected patients appear to peak 5 to 6 days after symptom onset.”

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-persp...-loads-patient




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Yes, this is true along with neurological damage... that you and I had discussed previously. Although most narratives have been around the elderly, those who have recovered, young and old can have long term ailments and damage to the heart, lung, kidney and brain.

[Andad]

Originally Posted by gtnator

I work for one of the largest consulting firms in the world, we make our money by traveling to client sites and providing advice, on-site. We just suspended all international and domestic (US) travel “unless critical” in which case would still require many levels of approval. This will definitely adversely affect our business and our clients who are companies and governments around the world.

They also told us we cannot attend any meeting that has 50 or more people, anywhere, internal or external. All group training cancelled too.


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50 people with this virus could pass a temperature screening test during the first few days of their infection?

This is the big problem.

[77T]

Originally Posted by directioneng

How can a patient with viral pneumonia caused by this virus be classed as asymptomatic?

That is because many have what is typically called “walking pneumonia”.

So they appear asymptomatic but have the disease.


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[77T]

Originally Posted by directioneng

50 people with this virus could pass a temperature screening test during the first few days of their infection?

This is the big problem.

Well anyone in the early stages of even the flu won’t have a temperature. In the flu that’s rather quicker onset than this new virus.


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[Andad]

Caused by the coronavirus.


Causes:

Viruses that can lead to pneumonia include:

Influenza (flu) A and B viruses are the most common causes in adults.

Respiratory syncytial virus, or RSV, is more common in infants and children than in adults.

Others include coronaviruses, rhinoviruses, parainfluenza viruses, and adenoviruses, which can also cause pinkeye.

[Andad]

Originally Posted by 77T

Well anyone in the early stages of even the flu won’t have a temperature. In the flu that’s rather quicker onset than this new virus.


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My point.

[77T]

Originally Posted by directioneng

My point.

ok - misunderstood that...


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[Laszlo]

When I read more about the lung damage including dead tissue shedding inside the lung at rates that actually clogged oxygen and blood flow within days I summed this up as being pretty serious. Let alone that recent BBC video in Iran that showed one local hospital with mountains of body bags with accusations of covering up the real death rate. That was real and just one small hospital. I'm sorry but something is terribly wrong.

[BumbleB]

Originally Posted by austinp

I'm at a volleyball tournament with thousands of people. Not worried.

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Great, after 14 days you’ll be able to confirm that was a good decision.


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[BumbleB]

Originally Posted by gtnator

I work for one of the largest consulting firms in the world, we make our money by traveling to client sites and providing advice, on-site. We just suspended all international and domestic (US) travel “unless critical” in which case would still require many levels of approval. This will definitely adversely affect our business and our clients who are companies and governments around the world.

They also told us we cannot attend any meeting that has 50 or more people, anywhere, internal or external. All group training cancelled too.


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I was offered a job in early Feb by one of the largest consulting firms and then was told to wait for 6 months to see what happens with the virus...


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[alphadweller]

16million people quarantined in Italy...

https://youtu.be/xNy6lhznMD0

[1st amg]

My wifes parents and sisters live in southern Italy, in Calabria and they are going absolutely ape $hit with stocking their houses with everything. They have shut down the airport in the south Lamezia Terme to not allow any flights from up north, but apparently this is not enough as millions from the northern regions like Milan, Turin are fleeing the "infected" part of Italy and staying in the southern parts only to bring and spread the virus in the south.....the southerners are pissed. This virus is going to destroy Italy from their biggest source of income....tourism. All factories are shut down, Fiat, Ferrari etc.

[Moggo]

I need to tap out of this thread, getting me seriously concerned now

Another 2 cases here, appreciate its very small numbers but guess where they just came back from?! That’s right Northern Italy, stop letting people walk straight back in! Our government is ridiculous, telling us to be cautious and then letting infected people walk back in to spread the virus.

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[austinp]

Originally Posted by BumbleB

Great, after 14 days you’ll be able to confirm that was a good decision.


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Will do

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[TheVTCGuy]

As a certified hypochondriac just reading this thread is causing me to have Corona symptoms.

[gtnator]

Originally Posted by directioneng

50 people with this virus could pass a temperature screening test during the first few days of their infection?

This is the big problem.

It’s been going down. Started with unlimited, then “small conferences”, now anywhere with 50 people is banned which is most metropolitan restaurants, shopping areas, and obviously conference rooms.


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