the Coronavirus outbreak thread

[superdog]

I’m still at a loss as to most of this.

I understand this is serious. But I read today the following...

Out of a 100 infected:

80% show no symptoms
15% get mildly sick and recover
4% get very sick and recover
1% perish

I do realize this is not a perfect realization. But it sounds somewhat close.

Yet, the world is in panic? Why?

It’s hard to argue those stats. They aren’t perfect, but they sure appear close. So then again...why the panic?

It can surely be argued that the panic is far worse then the virus.

[BumbleB]

Originally Posted by gtnator

So what’s the latest, if one gets and then recovers from Coronavirus, is one then immune? I know they went back and forth on this for a while.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

A lady in Japan recovered and then contracted it again.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[superdog]

Originally Posted by BumbleB

A lady in Japan recovered and then contracted it again.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Is that a relapse? Like mono? Or streptococcus?

[Yoda_Eating_Pizza]

Originally Posted by BumbleB

A lady in Japan recovered and then contracted it again.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I had read about that, too. The case of the woman in Osaka that was discharged in late January after recovering. She tested negative during the monitoring period following her discharge. However, in late February, she had symptoms again, and tested positive. It's unclear if she was infected again, but some experts believe that it may actually have been dormant when she recovered.

Sources:
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20.../#.XmbWS6hKjGg
https://globalnews.ca/news/6623287/c...le-infections/


edit:
I re-read what I wrote, and it was a little confusing. Just want to make it less confusing:
It's unclear whether the woman was reinfected through another exposure, or if she was never really rid of the virus because it was merely dormant; some experts believe it's the latter.

[dimag333]

Originally Posted by superdog

I’m still at a loss as to most of this.

I understand this is serious. But I read today the following...

Out of a 100 infected:

80% show no symptoms
15% get mildly sick and recover
4% get very sick and recover
1% perish

I do realize this is not a perfect realization. But it sounds somewhat close.

Yet, the world is in panic? Why?

It’s hard to argue those stats. They aren’t perfect, but they sure appear close. So then again...why the panic?

It can surely be argued that the panic is far worse then the virus.

election year, budget increases, political crap, social media, just take a look at the threads of guys profiting from the dip in market, that alone is a reason. But then again, I’m one of those guys that have to see it to believe it.

I am taking this serous though

It’s like havjng an axiety attack thinkng about having an anxiety attack

steve

[BumbleB]

Originally Posted by 42itus

I'm glad to hear that Italy is capable of handling the situation without mass panic. The world could learn from watching your country.



Stay safe!

Really? https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...break-11952487


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Bryant Park]

Originally Posted by superdog

I’m still at a loss as to most of this.

I understand this is serious. But I read today the following...

Out of a 100 infected:

80% show no symptoms
15% get mildly sick and recover
4% get very sick and recover
1% perish

I do realize this is not a perfect realization. But it sounds somewhat close.

Yet, the world is in panic? Why?

It’s hard to argue those stats. They aren’t perfect, but they sure appear close. So then again...why the panic?

It can surely be argued that the panic is far worse then the virus.

Seth not trying to be alarmist or dispassionate but think of the practical impact using your numbers. The U.K. Government has directed business to assume an infection rate of 20% with a mortality rate slightly north of those you quote. These projections were based on the National Health Services modeling so fairly apolitical.

So applying those projection to the US. The US population is approx 325,000,000. If 20% were to contract the illness that converts to 65,000,000 infected and 650,000 deaths and 2,600,000 people very sick. Now consider the impact on the health care system of that volume of people requiring care, the knock on effects of various quarantine efforts to limit the spread to 20%, the economic impact of disrupted school and child care, the need to attend to the less ill by loved ones, etc.... Now extrapolate this globally to less developed countries that would experience much higher infection and mortality rates.

Again I am not predicting any of this but based on the statistics being reported that you point to this is the scenario I think markets are trying to price in.

[superdog]

^^^

Given the various causes of illness and death, and the amounts of each, you actually appear to be validating my thoughts.

If anything, maybe just buy into healthcare stocks because they will be busy. These numbers are minuscule in comparison to the various ailments people face daily.

[037]

Originally Posted by superdog

If anything, maybe just buy into healthcare stocks because they will be busy.

Keep in mind that being busy might not equate to being profitable.

Just playing devil's advocate here.

[BumbleB]

Originally Posted by 037

Keep in mind that being busy might not equate to being profitable.



Just playing devil's advocate here.

You would assume a flight to gold and silver, hasn’t really materialised either. Seems there’s a flight to cash and treasury bonds...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[EndlessEight]

My state, NJ, is now State of Emergency.

These potato locals by us had guests from Italy infected with corona.

Unreal.

[Bryant Park]

Originally Posted by superdog

^^^

Given the various causes of illness and death, and the amounts of each, you actually appear to be validating my thoughts.

If anything, maybe just buy into healthcare stocks because they will be busy. These numbers are minuscule in comparison to the various ailments people face daily.

This is from Health and Human Services...

"Approximately 1.5 million heart attacks and strokes occur every year in the United States. More than 800,000 people in the United States die from cardiovascular disease each year—that's 1 in every 3 deaths, and about 160,000 of them occur in people under age 65.Oct 10, 2019"

And this...

"According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), there were 2,813,503 registered deaths in the United States in 2017. The age-adjusted death rate, which accounts for the aging population, is 731.9 deaths per 100,000 people in the U.S. This is an increase of 0.4% over 2016's death rate."

The numbers you and I roughly agree to would be significant when considered against these historic numbers. Coronavirus would be responsible for an approx 23% increase in death rate (of course some might have died from other causes), and similar in lethality to cardiovascular disease.

[037]

Originally Posted by BumbleB

You would assume a flight to gold and silver, hasn’t really materialised either. Seems there’s a flight to cash and treasury bonds...

Seems like the typical go-to paths likely won't be typical this time around. Then again, I'm a terrible predictor of the future. I'm only awesome at predicting the past.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by Bryant Park

This is from Health and Human Services...

"Approximately 1.5 million heart attacks and strokes occur every year in the United States. More than 800,000 people in the United States die from cardiovascular disease each year—that's 1 in every 3 deaths, and about 160,000 of them occur in people under age 65.Oct 10, 2019"

And this...

"According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), there were 2,813,503 registered deaths in the United States in 2017. The age-adjusted death rate, which accounts for the aging population, is 731.9 deaths per 100,000 people in the U.S. This is an increase of 0.4% over 2016's death rate."

The numbers you and I roughly agree to would be significant when considered against these historic numbers.

Fair enough. It’s not insignificant. But it’s not significant enough to justify this panic.

But they shut down Italy. The panic is far more significant than the problem. At least that’s what this simple mind of mine is feeling.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by Bryant Park

Seth not trying to be alarmist or dispassionate but think of the practical impact using your numbers. The U.K. Government has directed business to assume an infection rate of 20% with a mortality rate slightly north of those you quote. These projections were based on the National Health Services modeling so fairly apolitical.

So applying those projection to the US. The US population is approx 325,000,000. If 20% were to contract the illness that converts to 65,000,000 infected and 650,000 deaths and 2,600,000 people very sick. Now consider the impact on the health care system of that volume of people requiring care, the knock on effects of various quarantine efforts to limit the spread to 20%, the economic impact of disrupted school and child care, the need to attend to the less ill by loved ones, etc.... Now extrapolate this globally to less developed countries that would experience much higher infection and mortality rates.

Again I am not predicting any of this but based on the statistics being reported that you point to this is the scenario I think markets are trying to price in.

So the UK government must be expecting a massive massive massive explosion in the number of infected people to happen in the next month or two. Because it’s not happening now. So they are expecting it to happen? Right now they are 321 confirmed cases in England. Same with the United States. The United States is currently at 605 cases of confirmed infections. In order for 65 million people in the US to get this virus we are going to have to see numbers of roughly 5.5 million a month for the next 12 months or roughly 1.3 million a week become infected. Using the stats you provided of 650,000 deaths that would mean 54,000 deaths a month or roughly 13,000 a week. When do you/they think we will start seeing 13,000 Americans die a week from coronavirus?

On a sidenote this does not seem to be happening in China. Unless of course the UK government believes the Chinese are lying to the world and I suppose that’s possible.

[Bryant Park]

Originally Posted by Patton250

So the UK government must be expecting a massive massive massive explosion in the number of infected people to happen in the next month or two. Because it’s not happening now. So they are expecting it to happen? Right now they are 321 confirmed cases in England. Same with the United States. The United States is currently at 605 cases of confirmed infections. In order for 65 million people in the US to get this virus we are going to have to see numbers of roughly 5.5 million a month for the next 12 months or roughly 1.3 million a week become infected. Using the stats you provided of 650,000 deaths that would mean 54,000 deaths a month or roughly 13,000 a week. When do you/they think we will start seeing 13,000 Americans die a week from coronavirus?

On a sidenote this does not seem to be happening in China. Unless of course the UK government believes the Chinese are lying to the world and I suppose that’s possible.

I did not say I expect anything I responded to Superdogs question in a dispassionate and factual way.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by Bryant Park

I did not say I expect anything I responded to Superdogs question in a dispassionate and factual way.

I know. You said the UK government said all that. I was wondering if you had any more information that’s all. That was quite a statement for them to make.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by Bryant Park

I did not say I expect anything I responded to Superdogs question in a dispassionate and factual way.

It kind of turns me on when you call me superdog.

[dimag333]

Originally Posted by EndlessEight

My state, NJ, is now State of Emergency.

These potato locals by us had guests from Italy infected with corona.

Unreal.

Just checked, wtf!

Murph is on a roll

steve

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by superdog

It kind of turns me on when you call me superdog.

[037]

Originally Posted by Patton250

I know. You said the UK government said all that. I was wondering if you had any more information that’s all. That was quite a statement for them to make.

Overcompensation. It seems common these days.

That's not to say it can't or won't happen but it's difficult to calculate an outcome based on little data. I'd say it's too early for anyone to make a call.

We don't have enough data to extrapolate a trend but do have plenty of data to overcompensate.

I wish there was a balance.

[Bryant Park]

Originally Posted by superdog

It kind of turns me on when you call me superdog.

Odd but if it works for you... good boy

[77T]

Originally Posted by BumbleB

You would assume a flight to gold and silver, hasn’t really materialised either. Seems there’s a flight to cash and treasury bonds...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Spot gold jumped to its seven-year high, rising 1.6% to $1,700.66 per ounce today...but has retreated .9% in after hours to 1,665.00...

There is going to be a wild ride for a while.




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[superdog]

Originally Posted by Bryant Park

Odd but if it works for you... good boy

Oh yeah!!!

Now we are talking.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by Bryant Park

Odd but if it works for you... good boy

Lol. We need a little levity at this time.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by superdog

Fair enough. It’s not insignificant. But it’s not significant enough to justify this panic.

But they shut down Italy. The panic is far more significant than the problem. At least that’s what this simple mind of mine is feeling.

I agree 100% by the way.

[jhilly8982]

Originally Posted by Patton250

So the UK government must be expecting a massive massive massive explosion in the number of infected people to happen in the next month or two. Because it’s not happening now. So they are expecting it to happen? Right now they are 321 confirmed cases in England. Same with the United States. The United States is currently at 605 cases of confirmed infections. In order for 65 million people in the US to get this virus we are going to have to see numbers of roughly 5.5 million a month for the next 12 months or roughly 1.3 million a week become infected. Using the stats you provided of 650,000 deaths that would mean 54,000 deaths a month or roughly 13,000 a week. When do you/they think we will start seeing 13,000 Americans die a week from coronavirus?

On a sidenote this does not seem to be happening in China. Unless of course the UK government believes the Chinese are lying to the world and I suppose that’s possible.

Well, this is the scary part of a systemic, multiplicative fat-tailed event.

The cases are doubling every 6 days. At 605 cases in the US, in roughly 15 weeks we will be well over 65 million cases.

Assuming the rate of infection doesn't slow down.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by jhilly8982

Well, this is the scary part of a systemic, multiplicative fat-tailed event.

The cases are doubling every 6 days. At 605 cases in the US, in roughly 15 weeks we will be well over 65 million cases.

Assuming the rate of infection doesn't slow down.

Exactly however that didn’t happen in China. It’s been going on there for 2 1/2 to 3 months. Perhaps longer......

[jhilly8982]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Exactly however that didn’t happen in China. It’s been going on there for 2 1/2 to 3 months. Perhaps longer......

Yeah, once it got serious they were very quick to quarantine 40 million people. I don't see how the US could execute or drive compliance on that scale.

[BumbleB]

Originally Posted by Patton250

I agree 100% by the way.

You don’t say...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk