The Rolex Forums   The Rolex Watch

ROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEX


Go Back   Rolex Forums - Rolex Watch Forum > General Topics > Open Discussion Forum

Closed Thread
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 1 February 2020, 02:58 AM   #61
Runnin' Rebel
"TRF" Member
 
Runnin' Rebel's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Real Name: Mark
Location: 🤔
Posts: 8,424
AA pilots filed law suit yesterday refusing to fly to China. Effective today all flights canceled to Chinese mainland until late March

AA was going to stop February 9 but then the lawsuit was filed
__________________
Runnin' Rebel is offline  
Old 1 February 2020, 01:52 PM   #62
Ichiran
2024 Pledge Member
 
Ichiran's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Real Name: Michael
Location: Dotonbori
Watch: Mostly blue dials
Posts: 7,512
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zakalwe View Post
I’m happy to debate you in good faith but I’m out of here if you’re going to deliberately misconstrue my words. ‘Flu kills 600,000 people per year yet for most people it is mild and self limiting. I’ve had it at least twice and I was fine. Despite the hysteria, coronavirus is likely similar for most. Not all, obviously.
I noted you have highlighted the 600,000 annual deaths from flu, which was an estimated made in a Lancet report and was also referenced by WHO. I have no issue with that.

Yesterday, the same WHO has announced the 2019 coronavirus as a global health emergency. WHO defines a global health emergency as an "extraordinary event" that is "serious, unusual or unexpected".

Now, I'm pretty sure the team of medical professors, scientists, microbiologists, virologists and doctors in WHO and in China know exactly what is a seasonal flu or influenza, and I'm sure they have the competency to understand what are the differences between a seasonal flu and the 2019 coronavirus. I'm also pretty sure there were mortalities arising from seasonal flu in China, and they must have seen and experienced it year after year.

From my very layman perspective, this 2019 coronavirus seems to have a higher infection rate, pneumonia and mortality rate in the community, and it kills the middle-aged adults more so than the common cold.

And we are just in the beginning stage of this outbreak which as you said, could become more serious as it progresses. It's extremely early days to call this 2019 coronavirus no worse than a "normal flu".

By the way, I also have had cold at least twice, but I won't use that in a debate on a mystery virus.
Ichiran is online now  
Old 1 February 2020, 02:08 PM   #63
Fat_ninja
Banned
 
Join Date: May 2018
Real Name: Jonathan
Location: USA
Watch: P-01
Posts: 11,772
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ichiran View Post
I noted you have highlighted the 600,000 annual deaths from flu, which was an estimated made in a Lancet report and was also referenced by WHO. I have no issue with that.

Yesterday, the same WHO has announced the 2019 coronavirus as a global health emergency. WHO defines a global health emergency as an "extraordinary event" that is "serious, unusual or unexpected".

Now, I'm pretty sure the team of medical professors, scientists, microbiologists, virologists and doctors in WHO and in China know exactly what is a seasonal flu or influenza, and I'm sure they have the competency to understand what are the differences between a seasonal flu and the 2019 coronavirus. I'm also pretty sure there were mortalities arising from seasonal flu in China, and they must have seen and experienced it year after year.

From my very layman perspective, this 2019 coronavirus seems to have a higher infection rate, pneumonia and mortality rate in the community, and it kills the middle-aged adults more so than the common cold.

And we are just in the beginning stage of this outbreak which as you said, could become more serious as it progresses. It's extremely early days to call this 2019 coronavirus no worse than a "normal flu".

By the way, I also have had cold at least twice, but I won't use that in a debate on a mystery virus.
Stay safe buddy. It’s also in NYC now I think. The India case worries me because I don’t think they can mobilize as quick as the central govt in China can.
Fat_ninja is offline  
Old 1 February 2020, 02:15 PM   #64
Ichiran
2024 Pledge Member
 
Ichiran's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Real Name: Michael
Location: Dotonbori
Watch: Mostly blue dials
Posts: 7,512
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fat_ninja View Post
Stay safe buddy. It’s also in NYC now I think. The India case worries me because I don’t think they can mobilize as quick as the central govt in China can.
You stay safe too bro, and keep your family safe.
It's popping up and spreading to new places. With the incubation period of up to 14 days, and doctors opining that the virus can spread without symptoms, it is certainly a concern.
Ichiran is online now  
Old 1 February 2020, 04:37 PM   #65
hideki4
Banned
 
Join Date: Jan 2020
Location: Toronto
Posts: 34
Ok but seriously. How will the coronavirus impact Patek values?
hideki4 is offline  
Old 1 February 2020, 08:59 PM   #66
Fat_ninja
Banned
 
Join Date: May 2018
Real Name: Jonathan
Location: USA
Watch: P-01
Posts: 11,772
Quote:
Originally Posted by hideki4 View Post
Ok but seriously. How will the coronavirus impact Patek values?
Chinese recession, its a big hit to GDP... yuan devaluation which has happened already... people can’t go to work. Etc etc.
Fat_ninja is offline  
Old 2 February 2020, 01:58 AM   #67
Boothroyd
2024 Pledge Member
 
Boothroyd's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2011
Real Name: Daniel
Location: Minneapolis, MN
Watch: Wilsdorf(s)
Posts: 10,174
People seem very sanguine about this not impacting the US. There are already cases here, with transmission between people.

A new virius that can be transmitted between humans, for which we have no natural immunity, while also mutate over time. The side effects of that mutation could be catastrophic.

SARS didn't take the world down, and coronavirus likely won't either. But read up on the "Spanish" flu outbreak of 1918. Sooner or later, it will happen again.
__________________
Explorer 214270 MK I/Datejust II Black 116300/Tudor Heritage Black Bay Black 79220N
Boothroyd is offline  
Old 2 February 2020, 03:53 AM   #68
Arcticsub
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2019
Location: Local group
Posts: 226
Quote:
Originally Posted by Boothroyd View Post
People seem very sanguine about this not impacting the US. There are already cases here, with transmission between people.

A new virius that can be transmitted between humans, for which we have no natural immunity, while also mutate over time. The side effects of that mutation could be catastrophic.

SARS didn't take the world down, and coronavirus likely won't either. But read up on the "Spanish" flu outbreak of 1918. Sooner or later, it will happen again.
Currently, the Wuhan virus has a mortality rate of 3%. The Spanish flu had the same rate.

The Spanish flu killed 50-100 million people.

Lot of posts in this topic saying that we don't know the potential impact of this new virus. They're right. However, it's impact has already been enormous. A large chunk of China is in lockdown. The other parts are slowly grinding to a standstill.

I think the world economy is in big trouble. I hope I'm wrong, but the ncov2019 looks to be incredibly virulent.
Arcticsub is offline  
Old 2 February 2020, 04:05 AM   #69
pickettt
"TRF" Member
 
pickettt's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2017
Location: California
Watch: Shiny One
Posts: 5,351
Quote:
Originally Posted by Arcticsub View Post
Currently, the Wuhan virus has a mortality rate of 3%. The Spanish flu had the same rate.

The Spanish flu killed 50-100 million people.
3% is either 50 million or 100 million, it can't be both. With that kind of deviation it's hard to conclude that it has the same mortality rate.
pickettt is offline  
Old 2 February 2020, 04:10 AM   #70
bayerische
"TRF" Member
 
bayerische's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Real Name: Andreas
Location: Margaritaville
Watch: Smurf
Posts: 19,879
Quote:
Originally Posted by pickettt View Post
3% is either 50 million or 100 million, it can't be both. With that kind of deviation it's hard to conclude that it has the same mortality rate.
Good one.
__________________
Yeah, well, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
bayerische is offline  
Old 2 February 2020, 07:51 AM   #71
Burnettwatches
Banned
 
Join Date: Mar 2018
Location: Canada
Posts: 32
Quote:
Originally Posted by Knappo 1307 View Post
Am I the only one not worried??
you're not alone bud
Burnettwatches is offline  
Old 2 February 2020, 08:10 AM   #72
Arcticsub
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2019
Location: Local group
Posts: 226
Quote:
Originally Posted by Arcticsub View Post
Currently, the Wuhan virus has a mortality rate of 3%. The Spanish flu had the same rate.

The Spanish flu killed 50-100 million people.

Lot of posts in this topic saying that we don't know the potential impact of this new virus. They're right. However, it's impact has already been enormous. A large chunk of China is in lockdown. The other parts are slowly grinding to a standstill.

I think the world economy is in big trouble. I hope I'm wrong, but the ncov2019 looks to be incredibly virulent.
Should have added that the 1918 Spanish flu had a 10% fatality rate (not 3% as I initially erroneously posted).
Arcticsub is offline  
Old 2 February 2020, 11:23 AM   #73
Boothroyd
2024 Pledge Member
 
Boothroyd's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2011
Real Name: Daniel
Location: Minneapolis, MN
Watch: Wilsdorf(s)
Posts: 10,174
The additional tragedy to the Spanish flu is that it kicked one's immune system into overdrive. The young and healthy had the most robust immune systems. It disproportionately killed younger people as a result.
__________________
Explorer 214270 MK I/Datejust II Black 116300/Tudor Heritage Black Bay Black 79220N
Boothroyd is offline  
Old 2 February 2020, 12:50 PM   #74
3 Putt
"TRF" Member
 
3 Putt's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Real Name: Jeff
Location: Florida/China
Watch: All of them
Posts: 240
People will be indifferent and casual about this virus until it hits their backyard. Forget the mortality rate..catching this virus is painful with a long recovery. Not to mention, if you get it, chances are you will infect your family and watch them suffer through it too. Its a big pain in the ass for many reasons including economic and lifestyle.

I've seen it up close and it is causing much chaos in China...which will translate to the world economy. Vegatable prices have almost tripled in the area I live due to price gouging and reduced supply chains. The Chinese gov. has ordered companies to remain closed until Feb. 10 to keep people isolated longer. Yesterday, our provincial government ordered that unless all employees wear approved masks, a business cannot open on Feb. 10th.

There is a shortage of masks in China. China has imported more than 56 million masks and now asking the EU for help getting supplies. I need 80,000 masks to operate for 60 days. We have a 5 day supply. The magnitude of the hit to the economy will depend on how long this virus spreads without confidence in its management. It affect everybody in more ways than a potential mortality rate.
__________________
“If you drink, don’t drive. Don’t even putt.”
― Dean Martin
3 Putt is offline  
Old 2 February 2020, 05:46 PM   #75
A971
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2018
Location: Japan
Posts: 252
Hong Kong just closed schools for a month.

It’s getting real...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
A971 is offline  
Old 2 February 2020, 11:23 PM   #76
Fat_ninja
Banned
 
Join Date: May 2018
Real Name: Jonathan
Location: USA
Watch: P-01
Posts: 11,772
Cases spiked over passed day. 14,628 cases
Deaths 305


SARS was in the 700’s
Fat_ninja is offline  
Old 2 February 2020, 11:36 PM   #77
Ichiran
2024 Pledge Member
 
Ichiran's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Real Name: Michael
Location: Dotonbori
Watch: Mostly blue dials
Posts: 7,512
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fat_ninja View Post
Cases spiked over passed day. 14,628 cases
Deaths 305

SARS was in the 700’s
Wuhan was locked down on 23 Jan, and since the incubation period is 2 weeks, the first important date is 7 Feb. In theory, the infections should drop substantially after 7 Feb. 5 more days - finger crossed.

Due to the lack of infection control segregation rooms, I understand a lot of suspected people are quarantined at home. Due to potential infection of family members at home, the 2nd wave will be another 2 weeks after 6 Feb, ie 21 Feb. After that the numbers should really come down.

If there is a 3rd wave, then God Help us all.
Ichiran is online now  
Old 2 February 2020, 11:50 PM   #78
Fat_ninja
Banned
 
Join Date: May 2018
Real Name: Jonathan
Location: USA
Watch: P-01
Posts: 11,772
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ichiran View Post
Wuhan was locked down on 23 Jan, and since the incubation period is 2 weeks, the first important date is 7 Feb. In theory, the infections should drop substantially after 7 Feb. 5 more days - finger crossed.

Due to the lack of hospital beds, I understand a lot of suspected people are quarantined at home. The 2nd wave will be another 2 weeks after 6 Feb, ie 21 Feb. After that the numbers should really come down.

If there is a 3rd wave, then God Bless us all.
It’s in NYC and Boston as well
Fat_ninja is offline  
Old 2 February 2020, 11:58 PM   #79
Ichiran
2024 Pledge Member
 
Ichiran's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Real Name: Michael
Location: Dotonbori
Watch: Mostly blue dials
Posts: 7,512
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fat_ninja View Post
It’s in NYC and Boston as well
A recent study has indicated the R-nought as 4.08, and I read the latest case in NY is a 20+ youngish individual?

Stay safe bro.
Ichiran is online now  
Old 3 February 2020, 12:08 AM   #80
Fat_ninja
Banned
 
Join Date: May 2018
Real Name: Jonathan
Location: USA
Watch: P-01
Posts: 11,772
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ichiran View Post
A recent study has indicated the R-nought as 4.08, and I read the latest case in NY is a 20+ youngish individual?

Stay safe bro.
I haven’t had a chance to read up on it...yet but yeah getting real. I wanted to get masks but my team didn’t think we needed it. Now it’s back ordered. Told the wife to get me some
Fat_ninja is offline  
Old 3 February 2020, 12:14 AM   #81
gtnator
2024 Pledge Member
 
gtnator's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: USA
Watch: DSSD, SD43, Pepsi,
Posts: 2,062
Just don’t touch your face, you’ll be fine.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
gtnator is offline  
Old 3 February 2020, 12:27 AM   #82
Spartacus
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: DC
Watch: Daytona
Posts: 2,696
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zakalwe View Post
I’m happy to debate you in good faith but I’m out of here if you’re going to deliberately misconstrue my words. ‘Flu kills 600,000 people per year yet for most people it is mild and self limiting. I’ve had it at least twice and I was fine. Despite the hysteria, coronavirus is likely similar for most. Not all, obviously.
It’s rather disheartening that you see this as a “debate” when the members you are “debating” are dealing with the impacts of the virus. While you likely are casually looking for a reason to be right.

“Just like the flu” ...great, now I guess we can all go get the shot at the local health center....oh wait.

For the members here directly or indirectly affected, I am thinking of you and hope things are resolved soon. I can not imagine being quarantined at home for weeks, and my my city, my country, being shutdown.
Spartacus is offline  
Old 3 February 2020, 12:35 AM   #83
RW16610
2024 Pledge Member
 
RW16610's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Real Name: Rommel
Location: Toronto Canada
Watch: 116710LN
Posts: 8,940
Quote:
Originally Posted by A971 View Post
Hong Kong just closed schools for a month.

It’s getting real...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Quote:
Originally Posted by Fat_ninja View Post
Cases spiked over passed day. 14,628 cases
Deaths 305


SARS was in the 700’s



Oh man, all of this is terrible. I can't imagine what it would be like to be there right now. No idea how people are to get food or other essential items as needed.
RW16610 is offline  
Old 3 February 2020, 02:17 AM   #84
gtnator
2024 Pledge Member
 
gtnator's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: USA
Watch: DSSD, SD43, Pepsi,
Posts: 2,062
Quote:
Originally Posted by 3 Putt View Post
People will be indifferent and casual about this virus until it hits their backyard. Forget the mortality rate..catching this virus is painful with a long recovery. Not to mention, if you get it, chances are you will infect your family and watch them suffer through it too. Its a big pain in the ass for many reasons including economic and lifestyle.



I've seen it up close and it is causing much chaos in China...which will translate to the world economy. Vegatable prices have almost tripled in the area I live due to price gouging and reduced supply chains. The Chinese gov. has ordered companies to remain closed until Feb. 10 to keep people isolated longer. Yesterday, our provincial government ordered that unless all employees wear approved masks, a business cannot open on Feb. 10th.



There is a shortage of masks in China. China has imported more than 56 million masks and now asking the EU for help getting supplies. I need 80,000 masks to operate for 60 days. We have a 5 day supply. The magnitude of the hit to the economy will depend on how long this virus spreads without confidence in its management. It affect everybody in more ways than a potential mortality rate.


That sucks man. I didn’t realize it was that bad. If one gets the virus, what is the typical duration till recovery, assuming a normal/strong immune system? And can you get reinfected??


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
gtnator is offline  
Old 3 February 2020, 09:06 AM   #85
utc66
"TRF" Member
 
utc66's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: DC
Watch: 16600, PAM112,EZM1
Posts: 463
My wife thought I was silly to buy one month of food (canned and dried) last weekend. If it gets to the point we are asked to shelter in place at least we won’t be one of thousands scrambling to empty shelves at the last minute. Can’t hurt to be a little prepared.
utc66 is offline  
Old 3 February 2020, 09:17 AM   #86
Point break
Banned
 
Join Date: Mar 2018
Location: United States
Watch: Rolex 116500LN
Posts: 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by utc66 View Post
My wife thought I was silly to buy one month of food (canned and dried) last weekend. If it gets to the point we are asked to shelter in place at least we won’t be one of thousands scrambling to empty shelves at the last minute. Can’t hurt to be a little prepared.
If this situation gets any worse I would be doing the same thing. I get panic attacks when ever something like this occurs
Point break is offline  
Old 3 February 2020, 09:21 AM   #87
utc66
"TRF" Member
 
utc66's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: DC
Watch: 16600, PAM112,EZM1
Posts: 463
Quote:
Originally Posted by Point break View Post
If this situation gets any worse I would be doing the same thing. I get panic attacks when ever something like this occurs

And to me that’s the point, to not get anxiety, but to calmly be prepared - at least to some extent.
utc66 is offline  
Old 3 February 2020, 12:04 PM   #88
77T
2024 Pledge Member
 
77T's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Real Name: PaulG
Location: Georgia
Posts: 40,569
I don’t think this is a thing to spark arguments. I respect those professionals who are facing the onslaught of cases either on frontlines or in the vicinity.

We are at the start of an odyssey which will exact its full measure of misery for the afflicted, their loved ones and those who are affected by it.

Wuhan is in the crosshairs plus other adjacent provinces with HK & SG at risk. EMEA has reasons for concern and the Americas too.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
__________________


Does anyone really know what time it is?
77T is online now  
Old 3 February 2020, 02:59 PM   #89
Doc Savage
2024 Pledge Member
 
Doc Savage's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2018
Real Name: Bill
Location: Indiana
Watch: Submariner 124060
Posts: 6,637
This is crazy. I hope the lockdown in Wuhan does the trick.
__________________
“The real problem of humanity is we have Paleolithic emotions, medieval institutions, and godlike technology.”

-Edward O. Wilson
Doc Savage is offline  
Old 3 February 2020, 03:10 PM   #90
Laszlo
2024 Pledge Member
 
Laszlo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: San Francisco, CA
Watch: Date & No Date
Posts: 10,842
Quote:
Originally Posted by gtnator View Post
Just don’t touch your face, you’ll be fine.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Or sit on a toilet. Now that they know it can spread via digestive track. Just lovely.
__________________
"You might as well question why we breathe. If we stop breathing, we'll die. If we stop fighting our enemies, the world will die."

Paul Henreid as Victor Laszlo in Casablanca
Laszlo is offline  
Closed Thread


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 2 (0 members and 2 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Takuya Watches

Bobs Watches

Asset Appeal

My Watch LLC

OCWatches

DavidSW Watches

Coronet


*Banners Of The Month*
This space is provided to horological resources.





Copyright ©2004-2024, The Rolex Forums. All Rights Reserved.

ROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEX

Rolex is a registered trademark of ROLEX USA. The Rolex Forums is not affiliated with ROLEX USA in any way.