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Old 4 March 2020, 08:25 AM   #781
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You donít think the hand sanitizer is strong enough? I have been using that for years every time I pump gas.
Brett, just pour a little of the gas on your hands when you're done filling up. Works great....
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Old 4 March 2020, 08:29 AM   #782
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I trust just one person; Dr. Anthony Fauci.
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Old 4 March 2020, 08:29 AM   #783
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Brett, just pour a little of the gas on your hands when you're done filling up. Works great....
Lol

Itís important to have a little levity during these times.
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Old 4 March 2020, 08:30 AM   #784
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Paul I think the toughest thing when interpreting the numbers is that we don't have a good handle on the current numerator or denominator. Let's say there were 8600 people who contracted the virus 2 weeks ago and are now symptomatic. How many people did they interact with while actively shedding virus during that period? It can take a long time to go from 1-2 cases to 50 cases. But it could take a similar time duration to go from 50 to 2500 depending on how many previously unexposed people interact with the virus.

Word has definitely gotten out in my area. Everyone is keeping calm, no hysteria or anything. But I've never seen so many people in Target with soap and cleaning wipes in history, let alone the masses of people asking where the hand sanitizer is.... Well it's all out of stock in our entire region of Michigan, and can't be ordered online. Fortunately a lot of people here stock up on food during the winter as a precaution anyway.

We all have different risk tolerance. I called up my family and gave them a list of stuff to get in case they need to hunker down and avoid leaving their homes for a 2-3 week stretch. I hope they never need it, but will be glad they have it if they find themselves in an empty store-shelf situation in the coming weeks, or if local outbreaks reveal themselves in that time.
You see, Matt, I donít consider stocking up on cleaning and other supplies unreasonable. The CDC has stated washing your hands (and other areas) is the best way of battling contracting this virus. And keeping a week or two of supplies on hand in your home I believe is prudent virus or not, severe weather, power outages, it is always a good idea to be prepared. But these doomsday predictors are laughable. Let me ask this:

TRFers, we have a fairly large group worldwide on this forum, CAN ANYONE ON HERE SAY THEY PERSONALLY KNOW ANYONE THAT HAD CONTRACTED THIS VIRUS? ANYBODY THAT HAS DIED FROM IT? No, not you co-workers brothers uncle hairdresser, do YOU personally know anyone.

Now, do you know anyone that contracted/is battling/died from Cancer?



I rest my case.

PS Matt, maybe I asked you this before but where in Michigan? I graduated from Cranbrook
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Old 4 March 2020, 08:33 AM   #785
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I trust just one person; Dr. Anthony Fauci.
I trust him also. However thereís way too many people involved in all this for any major player to get away with lying to us so you might want to expand your trust a bit but thatís up to you. Iíve heard Dr. Fauci speak several times a day every day for the last week and I have not heard anything from him that would cause me to even think about panicking let alone panic. In fact I find his reports reassuring.
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Old 4 March 2020, 08:52 AM   #786
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You donít think the hand sanitizer is strong enough? I have been using that for years every time I pump gas.

I think hand sanitizer is strong enough.

My point was hand sanitizer isnít as effective as washing. A 30 second proper scrub is more effective.

The hand sanitizer is strong enough to kill 99.99% but the way people use it doesnít help get at pathogens under fingernails and the backs of hands.

Too many people substitute it for washing IMHO.




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Old 4 March 2020, 08:58 AM   #787
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I trust him also. However thereís way too many people involved in all this for any major player to get away with lying to us so you might want to expand your trust a bit but thatís up to you. Iíve heard Dr. Fauci speak several times a day every day for the last week and I have not heard anything from him that would cause me to even think about panicking let alone panic. In fact I find his reports reassuring.
Agree 100% and Iím not really panicking but a lot of momís are. Especially here in San Francisco. I was only sharing what I hear at home and theyíre looking for reassurances. I can reassure as a husband with re-teaching my son to wash his hands etc., etc., and assure my wife thereís supplies around to get by if needed. We live in earthquake county so we have to be prepared nonetheless. But what I canít do is provide transparency into what is going on. And yes the media fuels panic but they are also pointing out some incredible shortcomings of the CDC. I mean this is America arenít we supposed to be pretty bad ass at this stuff? Haha, at least thatís how it plays off in the movies. Anyway Iím more concerned about geopolitical and financial impacts.
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Old 4 March 2020, 09:03 AM   #788
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This just in (aggregated date:)

World health officials say the case fatality rate for COVID-19 is 3.4% globally, higher than previous estimates of about 2%.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/who-...y-thought.html
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Old 4 March 2020, 09:04 AM   #789
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Agree 100% and Iím not really panicking but a lot of momís are. Especially here in San Francisco. I was only sharing what I hear at home and theyíre looking for reassurances. I can reassure as a husband with re-teaching my son to wash his hands etc., etc., and assure my wife thereís supplies around to get by if needed. We live in earthquake county so we have to be prepared nonetheless. But what I canít do is provide transparency into what is going on. And yes the media fuels panic but they are also pointing out some incredible shortcomings of the CDC. I mean this is America arenít we supposed to be pretty bad ass at this stuff? Haha, at least thatís how it plays off in the movies. Anyway Iím more concerned about geopolitical and financial impacts.
Right on. I agree with everything you wrote. All good stuff. I had the same talk my wife and kids. We are in Florida so we are in fact prepared for emergencies as well because of hurricanes. I do believe the CDC is the best in the world and is doing just fine.
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Old 4 March 2020, 09:08 AM   #790
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Right on. I agree with everything you wrote. All good stuff. I had the same talk my wife and kids. We are in Florida so we are in fact prepared for emergencies as well because of hurricanes. I do believe the CDC is the best in the world and is doing just fine.


Youíre also in a good climate I do believe it plays a factor.

SF, always cold and moist argh.
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Old 4 March 2020, 09:09 AM   #791
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Letís look at this seriously for a second. Would hunkering down in your house for 2 to 3 weeks save you from getting this virus? It wouldnít keep you from getting the flu. The only way to never get this virus or any virus will be to stay in your house forever. That would be pretty much guaranteed so long as you didnít allow family members who went outside to come visit you.
I'm not sure how to respond to this, but will try to rationally. There are no certainties in life. Only, Always, Never are not possible as you say.

However, there are ways to reduce risk. Those include avoiding unnecessary direct contact with potentially infected people (handshakes, hugs, etc.) and washing our hands to reduce the likelihood of picking up the virus from contaminated surfaces and transferring them to our airways. It's harder to avoid sharing air with someone who is unknowingly infected, but you can reduce exposure by limiting unnecessary interaction for a period of time. These are the predominant ways this class of virus is transmitted between humans.

I'm reasonably certain that my wife and I as well as our kids could weather an infection and come out okay. I'm not so sure about the older and/or sicker folks I may interact with as part of my work. But I personally will take these precautions to spare myself a nasty respiratory tract infection, and maybe to spare someone less fortunate from a worse fate.
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Old 4 March 2020, 09:11 AM   #792
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I think hand sanitizer is strong enough.

My point was hand sanitizer isnít as effective as washing. A 30 second proper scrub is more effective.

The hand sanitizer is strong enough to kill 99.99% but the way people use it doesnít help get at pathogens under fingernails and the backs of hands.

Too many people substitute it for washing IMHO.




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I agree, it's not a substitute for hand-washing, but is an alternative when you're out and about with no access to soap and running water.
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Old 4 March 2020, 09:36 AM   #793
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I'm not sure how to respond to this, but will try to rationally. There are no certainties in life. Only, Always, Never are not possible as you say.

However, there are ways to reduce risk. Those include avoiding unnecessary direct contact with potentially infected people (handshakes, hugs, etc.) and washing our hands to reduce the likelihood of picking up the virus from contaminated surfaces and transferring them to our airways. It's harder to avoid sharing air with someone who is unknowingly infected, but you can reduce exposure by limiting unnecessary interaction for a period of time. These are the predominant ways this class of virus is transmitted between humans.

I'm reasonably certain that my wife and I as well as our kids could weather an infection and come out okay. I'm not so sure about the older and/or sicker folks I may interact with as part of my work. But I personally will take these precautions to spare myself a nasty respiratory tract infection, and maybe to spare someone less fortunate from a worse fate.
I agree 100%. Well put. Itís funny but I have been doing all that most of my life anyway. However in my job Iím shaking lots of hands I just wash them or hand sanitizer them before I touch my face.
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Old 4 March 2020, 10:13 AM   #794
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There are other sanitizing products cleared from the shelves where I live, which is close to 3-4 hospitals. The nurses and doctors know what to get. It's the same stuff we use in the lab.
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Old 4 March 2020, 11:06 AM   #795
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This just in (aggregated date:)

World health officials say the case fatality rate for COVID-19 is 3.4% globally, higher than previous estimates of about 2%.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/who-...y-thought.html
Well thatís not helpful. Thatís not news people and the market need to hear

Iím still going with South Korea data and princess data

Puts rate at 0.5%

The USA has 100 positive tests and 10 deaths so the fatality rate must be 10%

WTF???
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Old 4 March 2020, 11:27 AM   #796
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There are other sanitizing products cleared from the shelves where I live, which is close to 3-4 hospitals. The nurses and doctors know what to get. It's the same stuff we use in the lab.
What products are you speaking of ?
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Old 4 March 2020, 11:30 AM   #797
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Well that’s not helpful. That’s not news people and the market need to hear

I’m still going with South Korea data and princess data

Puts rate at 0.5%

The USA has 100 positive tests and 10 deaths so the fatality rate must be 10%

WTF???
I’m trusting the WHO. They’re extremely careful about claims. They would have never released something like this otherwise.

Pretty depressing.
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Old 4 March 2020, 11:37 AM   #798
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Iím trusting the WHO. Theyíre extremely careful about claims. They would have never released something like this otherwise.

Pretty depressing.
I see the cnn link

Can someone see the actual WHO news release?

Itís not on their website

More fake news? Click bait?
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Old 4 March 2020, 11:38 AM   #799
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Iím trusting the WHO. Theyíre extremely careful about claims. They would have never released something like this otherwise.
The only sources I'm trusting right now are the WHO and the CDC/NIH. Dr. Anthony Fauci is beyond reproach in the information he releases on behalf of the National Institutes of Health.
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Old 4 March 2020, 12:33 PM   #800
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The only sources I'm trusting right now are the WHO and the CDC/NIH. Dr. Anthony Fauci is beyond reproach in the information he releases on behalf of the National Institutes of Health.
Ditto ditto.

Dr. Anthony Fauci is the bar.
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Old 4 March 2020, 12:37 PM   #801
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The only sources I'm trusting right now are the WHO and the CDC/NIH. Dr. Anthony Fauci is beyond reproach in the information he releases on behalf of the National Institutes of Health.


The WHO is severely compromised by China.

I would reconsider them as a trusted source



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Old 4 March 2020, 12:37 PM   #802
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the Coronavirus outbreak thread

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I see the cnn link



Can someone see the actual WHO news release?



Itís not on their website



More fake news? Click bait?


The reporting by CNBC & CNN isnít because of a WHO news release. Instead, WHO held a live press briefing to give the reporters their viewpoints.

Here is how it was reported by CNBC:

During a press briefing Monday, WHO officials said they donít know how COVID-19 behaves, saying itís not like influenza. They added that while much is known about the seasonal flu, such as how itís transmitted and what treatments work to suppress the disease, that same information is still in question when it comes to the coronavirus.

ďThis is a unique virus, with unique features. This virus is not influenza,Ē Tedros said Monday. ďWe are in uncharted territory.Ē


Then today:

World health officials said Tuesday the mortality rate for COVID-19 is 3.4% globally, higher than previous estimates of about 2%.

ďGlobally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died,Ē WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said during a press briefing at the agencyís headquarters in Geneva. In comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected, he said.


So the WHO quotes arenít from news releases but from daily press briefings.


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Old 4 March 2020, 12:39 PM   #803
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I see the cnn link

Can someone see the actual WHO news release?

It’s not on their website

More fake news? Click bait?
Bloomberg good? Plenty of reputable outlets if you do a simple Google search via the browser on a desktop or mobile device. Then you search by typing in ‘coronavirus’ and ‘who’ and then click for results. Then you simply click the ‘news’ tab!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...e?srnd=premium
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Old 4 March 2020, 08:35 PM   #804
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Medical researchers now seem to think that coronavirus affects not only the respiratory system but also the central neurological system--the brain.

For instance, this new article says "Increasing evidence shows that coronavriruses are not always confined to the respiratory tract and that they may also invade the central nervous system inducing neurological diseases":

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/...1002/jmv.25728




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Old 5 March 2020, 12:48 AM   #805
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Eunice Yoon
“Experts...unanimously agreed that these results suggest that the dog has a low-level of infection and it is likely to be a case of human-to-animal transmission.” #HongKong #coronavirus

https://mobile.twitter.com/onlyyoontv
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Old 5 March 2020, 01:03 AM   #806
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Eunice Yoon
ďExperts...unanimously agreed that these results suggest that the dog has a low-level of infection and it is likely to be a case of human-to-animal transmission.Ē #HongKong #coronavirus

https://mobile.twitter.com/onlyyoontv
Yikes that is definitely not good news
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Old 5 March 2020, 01:52 AM   #807
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Medical researchers now seem to think that coronavirus affects not only the respiratory system but also the central neurological system--the brain.

For instance, this new article says "Increasing evidence shows that coronavriruses are not always confined to the respiratory tract and that they may also invade the central nervous system inducing neurological diseases":

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/...1002/jmv.25728

Appreciate the link - I read the article and believe this part also deserves equal awareness:

ďThe infection of SARS‐CoV has been reported in the brains from both patients and experimental animals, where the brainstem was heavily infected.Ē

That has been known for quite a while - that is, when the original SARS victims that died were studied. That outbreak began in 2003.

The authors are noting the similarity of SARS-CoV sequencing within the SARS‐CoV-2 gene (the current Wuhan coronavirus strain). So this COVID-19 ďMightĒ also lead to brain infection.

It is a good thing for them to report, but only helpful to the immunologists who are choosing effective anti-viral gene sequences for a new vaccine - or ICUís who have very ill patients.

For us, the preventative steps remain the same, as well as our own treatment of mild cases.



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Old 5 March 2020, 03:02 AM   #808
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Appreciate the link - I read the article and believe this part also deserves equal awareness:

ďThe infection of SARS‐CoV has been reported in the brains from both patients and experimental animals, where the brainstem was heavily infected.Ē

That has been known for quite a while - that is, when the original SARS victims that died were studied. That outbreak began in 2003.

The authors are noting the similarity of SARS-CoV sequencing within the SARS‐CoV-2 gene (the current Wuhan coronavirus strain). So this COVID-19 ďMightĒ also lead to brain infection.

It is a good thing for them to report, but only helpful to the immunologists who are choosing effective anti-viral gene sequences for a new vaccine - or ICUís who have very ill patients.

For us, the preventative steps remain the same, as well as our own treatment of mild cases.



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Out of curiosity, what are the physical side-effects? Brain damage like loss of motor skills or damage that youíd get from something like heavy drinking?
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Old 5 March 2020, 03:58 AM   #809
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Out of curiosity, what are the physical side-effects? Brain damage like loss of motor skills or damage that youíd get from something like heavy drinking?
Viral encephalitis can be a grave condition, particularly rhombenecephalitis which involves the brainstem. I haven't seen any case reports yet with documented COVID-19 encephalitis that included imaging with MRI or CT.

I do have some experience with Eastern Equine Encephalitis, which predominantly affects horses but can also be transferred to humans via mosquitoes. It was a big deal in my part of Michigan last year. I saw one case and the involvement was severe. Statistically with EEE involvement of the brain, 35% of patients will die and another 35% will survive but have permanent damage. Pretty much if you can see the involvement of the brain on a macroscopic level, the prognosis isn't good. I assume there are a small cohort of patients who are symptomatic, test positive when spinal fluid is sampled, but manage to escape relatively unscathed. It all depends on the interplay of the virus and immune system.

Let's hope that this does not become a common manifestation of COVID-19. Based on what we know so far, it isn't.
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Old 5 March 2020, 04:28 AM   #810
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the Coronavirus outbreak thread

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Out of curiosity, what are the physical side-effects? Brain damage like loss of motor skills or damage that youíd get from something like heavy drinking?


Damage to the medullary cardiorespiratory center from the mechano‐ and chemoreceptors in the lung and lower respiratory airways. In short, the loss of command over autonomously breathing.

(Edit: Let me add that I pulled that from the report cited in the post I quote.)


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