How does the Corona Virus pandemic end?

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by superdog

My friends.

I think this changes everything. How it changes, I can’t say. My assumption is that this virus will be around for the foreseeable future. All of our lifetimes.

I know the comparison with the flu is not a good one. However, with all the problems of the flu, there is still not real vaccine or cure.

I believe this will be similar. I think our social standards will evolve around the fact that there is no end in sight for this virus. I don’t think the effects will be like today. I do believe things will normalize.

But I think they will normalize around this new norm. Hand shaking will be a thing if the past. Boy/girl random fun and hookups are over. Close affection is also history. Parties and social gatherings are likely going to be held in contempt. Concerts and sporting events will be very different from what we are used to.

I think, along with social distancing, technology type interactions will be the new norm. And seasonally, this virus will create new devastation. For decades society will bend around the fears of this virus.

Travel and vacation will change. Everything will.

I think we will learn to live with this and all of our business and social interactions will evolve.

I’m not saying any of this is bad. That’s for each person to decide. I think people my age and older will be okay, mostly, with this. Younger folks will rebel as they will feel the pull of social interaction and nature calling to...you know what.

But I don’t think this ends. I thinks it’s the new beginning.

Please don’t misunderstand me. I’m not saying it will be bad. But I am certainly saying it will be different.

I agree with this. I do wonder how mass crowds will be managed any more without a proper vaccine. It is clear that any large gathering of people at the moment, will be punished severely with mass cases of COVID-19 illness.

That being said, if we can get an effective vaccine, this might, over time be eliminated...like one of the most feared diseases in history....Smallpox, which has been 100% eradicated due to comprehensive and aggressive vaccination administrations. i would also think the herd immunity would work, but we don't know if this is like a cold...you only have immunity for a few months, then you're at risk all over again...

This Covid-19 is nasty as it has so many asymptomatic carriers. That's where the real uncertainty and social dread is. Every encounter is now a dangerous meeting. Does the other person have it? They don't look sick? Do I have it? Is it on my packages? Yikes!

Perhaps this a horrible practice run for the coming H5N1 / H7N9 or worse future pandemic that could possibly be an extinction level event...either that or it would leave the world in a pre industrial age condition, just like in the movies!!

What we have learned from this is that overall, we weren't ready for this from multiple angles. Personal wellness and financial stability, logistics of medical supplies, capacity to treat masses of the critically ill, confusion over messaging to the public....etc. The good news is that science and technology will accelerate therapy options and vaccines over what was in the past.

[TheBeast]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Let’s say for the sake of conversation you are 100% correct. At the end of the year you won’t see much of a society left. 90% of all businesses will be permanently closed and that includes large businesses. Unemployment won’t even be able to be calculated it will be so high more than likely well above 50 or 60%. By then sports teams would probably try to get back together but who would care? The world would resemble something like the late 1890s. Yes we would still have electricity and plumbing but most people would have to live in the slums by that point in time. I’m starting to become convinced that most people just have no understanding of the permanent damage we are doing. Last week alone we had well over 3 million people apply for unemployment. That’s four times more than the last record from 1980. That was in one week. We are going to social distance ourselves right into the Stone Age.

You mentioned the death rate. Just to keep things in perspective as I type this we’ve lost close to 49,000 people worldwide due to COVID-19. In the US alone we’ve lost 59,000 people to the flu this year. That’s in the last six months.

This is one of the most ridiculous things I’ve EVER read!! Readers please dont give this Non-sense even the slightest chance to enter your brain! I could not imagine being around someone this negative. things will get rough, but 90% of businesses failing is the STUPIDEST thing I’ve ever seen in print!!

[SunTzu]

Please nobody quote Paul Krugman as a source.

I will tolerate all other opinions.

Carry on.


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[GB-man]

Originally Posted by superdog

Brother. Are you booing me?

Yes but it was meant to be funny. If you’ve never seen half baked then the point was possibly lost.

In the scene dave chapelle is at a narc anon meeting telling them he’s addicted to marijuana.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uUPHlAbAf2I

[AzPaul]

What we're finding out is that almost all the cases are mild, with as many as half having no symptoms at all. And as we're exposed to it, our bodies will begin to develop immunity, lessening its impact even further. After the dust settles, I think we'll find that the mortality rate is dominated by certain groups. Chiefly, those with compromised immune systems, diabetics, and those with preexisting respiratory problems. The evidence for this seems pretty clear, but understandably, the medical community isn't talking about it for fear people will take it as a reason not to participate in their broader desire for the population to self-isolate.

[Star Ferry]

Originally Posted by superdog

My friends.

I think this changes everything. How it changes, I can’t say. My assumption is that this virus will be around for the foreseeable future. All of our lifetimes.

I know the comparison with the flu is not a good one. However, with all the problems of the flu, there is still not real vaccine or cure.

I believe this will be similar. I think our social standards will evolve around the fact that there is no end in sight for this virus. I don’t think the effects will be like today. I do believe things will normalize.

But I think they will normalize around this new norm. Hand shaking will be a thing if the past. Boy/girl random fun and hookups are over. Close affection is also history. Parties and social gatherings are likely going to be held in contempt. Concerts and sporting events will be very different from what we are used to.
.

I'm a bit more optimistic. When things open up, that'll reflect a public policy view that the pros outweigh the cons. People assume risk whenever they go out in public. Look at it from a woman's perspective: they face extra risk in public, on dates, at bars, etc. but they manage those risks (for example, telling a friend where they're going and who they're meeting). Now we all have another risk to manage, but we won't be paralyzed by it. Maybe cruises will die out, especially since a lot of their customers are older, but most things will return.

[Letsgodiving]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Let’s say for the sake of conversation you are 100% correct. At the end of the year you won’t see much of a society left. 90% of all businesses will be permanently closed and that includes large businesses. Unemployment won’t even be able to be calculated it will be so high more than likely well above 50 or 60%. By then sports teams would probably try to get back together but who would care? The world would resemble something like the late 1890s. Yes we would still have electricity and plumbing but most people would have to live in the slums by that point in time. I’m starting to become convinced that most people just have no understanding of the permanent damage we are doing. Last week alone we had well over 3 million people apply for unemployment. That’s four times more than the last record from 1980. That was in one week. We are going to social distance ourselves right into the Stone Age.

You mentioned the death rate. Just to keep things in perspective as I type this we’ve lost close to 49,000 people worldwide due to COVID-19. In the US alone we’ve lost 59,000 people to the flu this year. That’s in the last six months.

Originally Posted by TheBeast

This is one of the most ridiculous things I’ve EVER read!! Readers please dont give this Non-sense even the slightest chance to enter your brain! I could not imagine being around someone this negative. things will get rough, but 90% of businesses failing is the STUPIDEST thing I’ve ever seen in print!!

IN WWII Germany was literally reduced to rubble. In approximately 10 years after their defeat West Germany was back to their previous GDP levels. To say the world would resemble the 1890's is hyperbole to the extreme.

[Aquaholic_user]

Is Ebola comparable to Corona? #Showerthought :trollin:

SM-N960U

[2ltdjorn]

likely to make an encore

[Boothroyd]

Originally Posted by Aquaholic_user

Is Ebola comparable to Corona? #Showerthought :trollin:

SM-N960U

No, because Ebola wasn't as infectious. Thank god.

[joli160]

Reading this thread is scary

[Phooi]

Originally Posted by Aquaholic_user

Is Ebola comparable to Corona? #Showerthought :trollin:

SM-N960U

N. The difference is the mobility of the contagion. While Ebola is highly contagious, the host is usually very ill and not very mobile when it happens. Covid is highly contagious and can be spread by hosts that appear asymptotic (not sick). That’s why we’re being asked to SIP. Since we don’t have adequate testing, you have no idea whether the person you run into has covid or not.

Hope this helps.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by GB-man

Yes but it was meant to be funny. If you’ve never seen half baked then the point was possibly lost.

In the scene dave chapelle is at a narc anon meeting telling them he’s addicted to marijuana.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uUPHlAbAf2I

I knew it wasn’t meant to be derogatory. I know you too well for that.

But definitely didn’t connect it. It’s pretty funny.

[mjr24]

Originally Posted by Phooi

N. The difference is the mobility of the contagion. While Ebola is highly contagious, the host is usually very ill and not very mobile when it happens. Covid is highly contagious and can be spread by hosts that appear asymptotic (not sick). That’s why we’re being asked to SIP. Since we don’t have adequate testing, you have no idea whether the person you run into has covid or not.

Hope this helps.

I can guarantee you that it would be much scarier if this were an Ebola outbreak. You might say Corona is easier to catch....but most people who catch Corona will be fine. Ebola isn't pretty....

[Phooi]

Originally Posted by mjr24

I can guarantee you that it would be much scarier if this were an Ebola outbreak. You might say Corona is easier to catch....but most people who catch Corona will be fine. Ebola isn't pretty....

So the response was to a question of whether Ebola is comparable to Corona. I addressed that question. I said nothing of the lethality of Ebola vs. COVID.

According to the WHO (assuming you believe them),

The average EVD case fatality rate is around 50%. Case fatality rates have varied from 25% to 90% in past outbreaks.

So yes, Ebola is very very nasty. There have been a number of outbreaks of Ebola worldwide. To date, none has transformed into a pandemic. In 2014, Ebola reached the US. Fortunately, we were able to prevent a spread of the disease.

Let us hope that we never encounter a virus as virulent as COVID with the lethality of Ebola. And let us hope that the world’s governments learn from this pandemic, be more prepared for the next one, so we don’t suffer as much as we’re all suffering now.

[alphadweller]

Hopefully it ends with a vaccine capable of eradicating it once for all by the time the second wave hits us this winter. Smallpox for instance has disappeared with the vaccine. Problem is vaccines take a long time to be developed and commercialised.

The alternative of a herd immunity means by the time we reach a large enough number of people immune, a significant proportion of the population has died of this disease. You can only do this when you start off with a majority of immune people (from a vaccine) which is not the case here. Reason why the UK had to backtrack on this strategy.

There's also the possibility of the virus mutating and becoming a seasonal disease here to stay like the influenza but getting weaker as future vaccines help us develop partial immunity (not total due to mutation)

Ideally I wouldn't want to get back to a normal life in the absence of a vaccine. But my guess is once we've flatten the curve and passed peak, we'll have to slowly restart the economy. However, without a vaccine we'll need to carry on taking precautions to avoid spreading it, like using masks, gloves, washing hands many times, some degree of social distancing etc.

[RJG]

How does it play out ?

Like Mad Max 2 with guys on motorcycles and mohawks and some crazy ass car chases... wild stunts and some big guy in a hockey mask.

Or it fades like the Avian Flu and a vaccine comes around.

[brandrea]

I honestly think as far as public things such as eating out, sporting events, concerts etc., life goes back to normal pretty quickly. We are social creatures and I don’t see much changing that

[Boothroyd]

Lovely gesture. A co-worker, who has sewing skills, just dropped off 4 homemade masks she made for my wife and me over the weekend. I had mentioned that we would like to have masks for shopping and store trips, but didn't know how to source any that wouldn't take away from the supply for medical workers. (I am over 60, my co-worker in her 30's, and we are peers at work--we are all home officing).

We have received some nice gifts over time, but that is one of the best I can remember. Wanted to post it somewhere on TRF.

[Kowaco]

I think it already has

[superdog]

interesting article.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/fauci-low...171213765.html

[scarlet knight]

The stay at home trend has flattened the curve. How do we reopen without widespread testing? I see no widespread testing on the horizon. The Federal government is closing test sites today. If things reopen soon, won’t there be a second wave of infections?

[scarlet knight]

Why are US infection cases and deaths the worst in the world?

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by Letsgodiving

IN WWII Germany was literally reduced to rubble. In approximately 10 years after their defeat West Germany was back to their previous GDP levels. To say the world would resemble the 1890's is hyperbole to the extreme.

If we don’t open up the country and I mean right away then it will resemble something like 1890s. Huge sections of the country will start looking like parts of Detroit does.

10 years!!!!

How many people will miss out going to college in that 10 years? How many peoples retirements will destroyed in that 10 years? How many people will lose their job permanently in that 10 years? We don’t have 10 years.

I appreciate your confidence in the United States being able to recover and agree with you. However recovering from a dogbite is one thing but recovering from 10 dogs attacking you and biting you is another thing. Every week we are shut down is like another dog jumping on you. At some point you become overwhelmed and unable to recover.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

The stay at home trend has flattened the curve. How do we reopen without widespread testing? I see no widespread testing on the horizon. The Federal government is closing test sites today. If things reopen soon, won’t there be a second wave of infections?

Absolutely zero way for anyone to ever prove that. Besides the models predicted way more death even with social distancing. So there’s that.

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

Why are US infection cases and deaths the worst in the world?

Don’t you mean to ask why does New York have the highest death rate of anywhere else in the world? From what I understand anyone that dies there is counted as COVID-19. Dr Birx said so. Also they are not testing the body’s so we will never know the true cause of death. They will always be counted as COVID-19 deaths.

[scarlet knight]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Absolutely zero way for anyone to ever prove that. Besides the models predicted way more death even with social distancing. So there’s that.



Don’t you mean to ask why does New York have the highest death rate of anywhere else in the world? From what I understand anyone that dies there is counted as COVID-19. Dr Birx said so. Also they are not testing the body’s so we will never know the true cause of death. They will always be counted as COVID-19 deaths.

I believe that if people in NY die and have Covid 19, it is recorded as a Covid 19 death. Not anyone who dies.

[mbalmz]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Absolutely zero way for anyone to ever prove that. Besides the models predicted way more death even with social distancing. So there’s that.

Don’t you mean to ask why does New York have the highest death rate of anywhere else in the world? From what I understand anyone that dies there is counted as COVID-19. Dr Birx said so. Also they are not testing the body’s so we will never know the true cause of death. They will always be counted as COVID-19 deaths.

society does have to re-open at some point, and there's really thoughtful, careful and sobering analysis that has to go into figuring out when that will be and how, which needs to take into account both the economy and peoples' health and lives. this is all true.

part of why this line of reasoning gets met with such hostility, though (in my opinion), is many of the people buying and running with the economic disaster projections, and pushing for a quick end to social distancing as a result, are the same people who refuse to accept what experts say about the virus itself and the public health crisis, and have been minimizing that problem from the beginning.

presumably you're neither an expert economist, nor an infectious disease expert; so believing the conclusions of one of those constituencies and ignoring the conclusions of the other smells like bias and nothing more. hard to get people to buy what you're selling that way.

[shaunylw]

I see things opening well before this thing is contained. As most pointed out, if we don’t open, it will destroy most industries. I think the long term effects of this will be fairly significant. I’m not going to the mall or a public place (movie theatre, dine in restaurant) any time soon. I really don’t care when everything opens back up, I’ll pickup food and get stuff delivered to the house vs going shopping.

I told my wife, when Disneyland opens up again, thats about as good a sign as it gets. If hundreds of thousands of people can be in a park, things are getting manageable.


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[Patton250]

Originally Posted by mbalmz

society does have to re-open at some point, and there's really thoughtful, careful and sobering analysis that has to go into figuring out when that will be and how, which needs to take into account both the economy and peoples' health and lives. this is all true.

part of why this line of reasoning gets met with such hostility, though (in my opinion), is many of the people buying and running with the economic disaster projections, and pushing for a quick end to social distancing as a result, are the same people who refuse to accept what experts say about the virus itself and the public health crisis, and have been minimizing that problem from the beginning.

presumably you're neither an expert economist, nor an infectious disease expert; so believing the conclusions of one of those constituencies and ignoring the conclusions of the other smells like bias and nothing more. hard to get people to buy what you're selling that way.

Well there are clearly many doctors that say the projections were wrong and were always wrong. It appears they were right. Now what do we do? Continue to pretend we’re going to have 2.4 million people die and keep the economy closed? I’m glad I don’t make that call.

By the way we did not elect Dr. Fauci. Also he will not be held accountable for any of this.

[SpeakWithMichael]

A vastly increased globalistic surveillance state where promised privacy inevitably and predictably fails and consent is forced upon us for the good of the whole.

https://www.vox.com/2020/4/10/212154...?ICID=ref_fark