How does the Corona Virus pandemic end?

[scarlet knight]

Effective treatment? Vaccine? Peters out? Herd immunity?

[Phooi]

All of the above. And don’t forget effective testing.

[Boothroyd]

Badly, with mutations to virus.

[DJ39]

April - Bad month
May - start going down and transition
June - some return to normalcy
July and August - too hot for Corina virus but still careful due to person to person transmission
September - anti virals approved just in time for flu season and spike in some cases
October and November - contact tracing and testing catches up in entire country. More effective measures and prep
December - uneasy celebration and time for reflection on the last six month. A prayer for a better 2021
January 2021 - Rolex releases coke GMT ceramic. Rolex forum erupts in celebration


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[CalSRQ1]

Originally Posted by DJ39

April - Bad month
May - start going down and transition
June - some return to normalcy
July and August - too hot for Corina virus but still careful due to person to person transmission
September - anti virals approved just in time for flu season and spike in some cases
October and November - contact tracing and testing catches up in entire country. More effective measures and prep
December - uneasy celebration and time for reflection on the last six month. A prayer for a better 2021
January 2021 - Rolex releases coke GMT ceramic. Rolex forum erupts in celebration


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I agree with your timeline and hope the antivirals bit is correct. I'm also thinking a vaccine is in the works but will be January '21

[htc8p]

There might be a vaccine but the world would have already suffered by then


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[Andad]

I would say the end is more than 12 months away providing we continue with distancing and can produce a vaccine.

The death rate will be reduced if we continue to protect the children, the elderly and those with health concerns.

This virus can infect us for too long without us showing symptoms and this means we can’t effectively control community transfer without using mass testing.

Early testing will also reduce the spreading of high virus loads from asymptomatic carriers.
If we can reduce the virus load passed on to the next person then that person may recover more quickly and with less damage.

Only 100% community cooperation can stop this and this will just not happen short or long term.

Too many in the community are indifferent but herd immunity equals too many losses.

[DLRIDES]

Stimulus funds complete the “circle of life”, with 25% finding its way back into the pockets of its creators.

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by directioneng

I would say the end is more than 12 months away providing we continue with distancing and can produce a vaccine.

The death rate will be reduced if we continue to protect the children, the elderly and those with health concerns.

This virus can infect us for too long without us showing symptoms and this means we can’t effectively control community transfer without using mass testing.

Early testing will also reduce the spreading of high virus loads from asymptomatic carriers.
If we can reduce the virus load passed on to the next person then that person may recover more quickly and with less damage.

Only 100% community cooperation can stop this and this will just not happen short or long term.

Too many in the community are indifferent but herd immunity equals too many losses.

Well said E.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by directioneng

I would say the end is more than 12 months away providing we continue with distancing and can produce a vaccine.

The death rate will be reduced if we continue to protect the children, the elderly and those with health concerns.

This virus can infect us for too long without us showing symptoms and this means we can’t effectively control community transfer without using mass testing.

Early testing will also reduce the spreading of high virus loads from asymptomatic carriers.
If we can reduce the virus load passed on to the next person then that person may recover more quickly and with less damage.

Only 100% community cooperation can stop this and this will just not happen short or long term.

Too many in the community are indifferent but herd immunity equals too many losses.

Let’s say for the sake of conversation you are 100% correct. At the end of the year you won’t see much of a society left. 90% of all businesses will be permanently closed and that includes large businesses. Unemployment won’t even be able to be calculated it will be so high more than likely well above 50 or 60%. By then sports teams would probably try to get back together but who would care? The world would resemble something like the late 1890s. Yes we would still have electricity and plumbing but most people would have to live in the slums by that point in time. I’m starting to become convinced that most people just have no understanding of the permanent damage we are doing. Last week alone we had well over 3 million people apply for unemployment. That’s four times more than the last record from 1980. That was in one week. We are going to social distance ourselves right into the Stone Age.

You mentioned the death rate. Just to keep things in perspective as I type this we’ve lost close to 49,000 people worldwide due to COVID-19. In the US alone we’ve lost 59,000 people to the flu this year. That’s in the last six months.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by directioneng

I would say the end is more than 12 months away providing we continue with distancing and can produce a vaccine.

The death rate will be reduced if we continue to protect the children, the elderly and those with health concerns.

This virus can infect us for too long without us showing symptoms and this means we can’t effectively control community transfer without using mass testing.

Early testing will also reduce the spreading of high virus loads from asymptomatic carriers.
If we can reduce the virus load passed on to the next person then that person may recover more quickly and with less damage.

Only 100% community cooperation can stop this and this will just not happen short or long term.

Too many in the community are indifferent but herd immunity equals too many losses.

Agree with Brian, well said.

Stay safe.

[uscmatt99]

Originally Posted by directioneng

I would say the end is more than 12 months away providing we continue with distancing and can produce a vaccine.

The death rate will be reduced if we continue to protect the children, the elderly and those with health concerns.

This virus can infect us for too long without us showing symptoms and this means we can’t effectively control community transfer without using mass testing.

Early testing will also reduce the spreading of high virus loads from asymptomatic carriers.
If we can reduce the virus load passed on to the next person then that person may recover more quickly and with less damage.

Only 100% community cooperation can stop this and this will just not happen short or long term.

Too many in the community are indifferent but herd immunity equals too many losses.

Spot on For what it's worth I think we're in for a continued economic hit over the next couple months, but with adequate testing and medical resources (providers, infrastructure, protective gear) we will be able to get some people back to work safely sooner rather than later to begin the economic recovery.

[Gaijin]

Originally Posted by directioneng

I would say the end is more than 12 months away providing we continue with distancing and can produce a vaccine.

The death rate will be reduced if we continue to protect the children, the elderly and those with health concerns.

This virus can infect us for too long without us showing symptoms and this means we can’t effectively control community transfer without using mass testing.

Early testing will also reduce the spreading of high virus loads from asymptomatic carriers.
If we can reduce the virus load passed on to the next person then that person may recover more quickly and with less damage.

Only 100% community cooperation can stop this and this will just not happen short or long term.

Too many in the community are indifferent but herd immunity equals too many losses.

Well said Eddie.

I have a friend that invited me to a poker game at his house tonight. Numerous people. I don't play poker or even know how which is why he may have invited me.


But that is not the point. The point is I'm thinking you selfish prick. Stay the F#$K home. You and your friends. When this is all over I will have a heart to heart to him about it. It has altered my thoughts on him. Even sent pics of the game and them drinking.

I'm not staying home because I'm afraid to catch the virus. I'm staying home because if I do already have it or if I catch it I don't want to kill anyone.

How hard is this!?

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Let’s say for the sake of conversation you are 100% correct. At the end of the year you won’t see much of a society left. 90% of all businesses will be permanently closed and that includes large businesses. Unemployment won’t even be able to be calculated it will be so high more than likely well above 50 or 60%. By then sports teams would probably try to get back together but who would care? The world would resemble something like the late 1890s. Yes we would still have electricity and plumbing but most people would have to live in the slums by that point in time. I’m starting to become convinced that most people just have no understanding of the permanent damage we are doing. Last week alone we had well over 3 million people apply for unemployment. That’s four times more than the last record from 1980. That was in one week. We are going to social distance ourselves right into the Stone Age.

You mentioned the death rate. Just to keep things in perspective as I type this we’ve lost close to 49,000 people worldwide due to COVID-19. In the US alone we’ve lost 59,000 people to the flu this year. That’s in the last six months.

Brett:

Brett: Is 90% of businesses being permanently closed by the end of the year an number based on your opinion? Or is it a number based on data, projections and models by economists?

If the later, it would be helpful if you provided links.

But if it is just your opinion, then my opinion that 90% is a panic number not based on reality is just as good as your opinion.

Off the top of my head, here is a list of business which my opinion says will not, in the main, permanently close.

1. Goods delivery industries, such as Walmart, Amazon, Target and other retailers and the businesses that support them such as Fed Ex, UPS, and trucking companies. And in fact, I believe they are hiring in record numbers.
   
2. Healthcare industry.
   
3. Industries that make products and services for the healthcare industry.
   
4. Food production industry.
   
5. Equipment makers and sellers to food production industry.
   
6. Packaging industry.
   
7. Paper towel industry.
   
8. Toilet paper industry.
   
9. Paper industry.
   
10. Cleaning services.
    
11. Gun and ammo industry.
    
12. Security business.
    
13. Computer businesses, both hardware, software and support.
    
14. Networking businesses.
    
15. Oil, gas and electric.
    
16. Petrol product retailers.
    
17. Vehicle part manufacturers.
    
18. Vehicle part manufactures.
    
19. Vehicle repair services.
    
20. My favorites: lawyers and slimy media companies, and the companies that manufacture make up for the same.

These are just examples.

Stay safe.

[Justinmg]

Originally Posted by Gaijin

Well said Eddie.

I have a friend that invited me to a poker game at his house tonight. Numerous people. I don't play poker or even know how which is why he may have invited me.


But that is not the point. The point is I'm thinking you selfish prick. Stay the F#$K home. You and your friends. When this is all over I will have a heart to heart to him about it. It has altered my thoughts on him. Even sent pics of the game and them drinking.

I'm not staying home because I'm afraid to catch the virus. I'm staying home because if I do already have it or if I catch it I don't want to kill anyone.


How hard is this!?

I agree

[FTX I]

I don't know. To me it looks like war and every country is involved. No bombs or guns just emptiness and silence. When it's over, society will slowly recover the same way that happened in the past, and I hope we get out of this crap trusting more in science and facts than ignorance and opinions.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by mountainjogger

Brett:

Brett: Is 90% of businesses being permanently closed by the end of the year an number based on your opinion? Or is it a number based on data, projections and models by economists?

If the later, it would be helpful if you provided links.

But if it is just your opinion, then my opinion that 90% is a panic number not based on reality is just as good as your opinion.

Off the top of my head, here is a list of business which my opinion says will not, in the main, permanently close.

1. Goods delivery industries, such as Walmart, Amazon, Target and other retailers and the businesses that support them such as Fed Ex, UPS, and trucking companies. And in fact, I believe they are hiring in record numbers.
   
2. Healthcare industry.
   
3. Industries that make products and services for the healthcare industry.
   
4. Food production industry.
   
5. Equipment makers and sellers to food production industry.
   
6. Packaging industry.
   
7. Paper towel industry.
   
8. Toilet paper industry.
   
9. Paper industry.
   
10. Cleaning services.
    
11. Gun and ammo industry.
    
12. Security business.
    
13. Computer businesses, both hardware, software and support.
    
14. Networking businesses.
    
15. Oil, gas and electric.
    
16. Petrol product retailers.
    
17. Vehicle part manufacturers.
    
18. Vehicle part manufactures.
    
19. Vehicle repair services.
    
20. My favorites: lawyers and slimy media companies, and the companies that manufacture make up for the same.

These are just examples.

Stay safe.

I’ve been listening to many experts that say it’s going to get that high if we don’t stop this nonsense and I mean soon. Those are great business you name but they make up about 10 to 15% of the country. You need to hop in the car my friend and drive around your city. 90% of the business as you drive-by are small businesses and they are shut down. Most of them won’t recover. By that I mean if we keep the country closed down for months. Even if we opened the country back up next week I’m not sure how many would survive what we’ve already done to them. I’ve seen the fall out on small businesses being shut down just for a week because of a hurricane. It’s absolutely insane what we’ve done. The only people I know that seem to be bought into this whole close the country down for months on end thing are people that are financially set to do so. Hence most of the people here including myself. I’m financially set to not bring in another dime for years. I also have enough food and water on hand to survive for close to a year. However well over 90% of the country doesn’t. I’m convinced most of you are ignoring that. Well you’re going to get a big taste of it very soon. I’ll be interested to get your comments when that happens. History tells us people get unruly when they’re unable to provide for their family. However this is the first time it’s ever been forced upon them by a government(s).

If we don’t get the country back going very soon Coronavirus will be the least of our problems. I fear it’s pretty close to being too late anyway.

You seem to put an awful lot of trust and more importantly faith in these “scientific experts”. It’s as if you feel they are infallible. Well they are not. In fact they are quite often wrong and there’s really nothing wrong with that because I’m sure they do the best they can and as we all know they do lots of good things. However in this case they are literally collapsing the world economy. Also we did not elect them. I realize my opinions are unpopular on this forum but I am not the in the minority in our country on this. Blindly following the governments direction by its citizens has had many failures in our country’s short 244 year span. However nothing even remotely close compares to this.

Lastly I really don’t want to have a cut-and-paste war with people on this forum. The reason why is I don’t much respect or believe a whole lot of the sources provided by others as I’m sure they would feel about my sources. If you want to believe everything the CDC and the WHO says that’s fine. Lots of people believed what the FBI was saying a couple years ago and we now all know what happen with that.

Bottom line is I don’t trust government and I never will. At our country‘s founding the federal government was designed to be very small and therefore have a little impact on its populace. Well that is changed significantly and this crisis it’s going to make that even worse.

Edit- I was wrong about unemployment. It’s now over 6 million. My bad.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/02/week...ss-claims.html

[GoingPlaces]

Originally Posted by DJ39

April - Bad month
May - start going down and transition
June - some return to normalcy
July and August - too hot for Corina virus but still careful due to person to person transmission
September - anti virals approved just in time for flu season and spike in some cases
October and November - contact tracing and testing catches up in entire country. More effective measures and prep
December - uneasy celebration and time for reflection on the last six month. A prayer for a better 2021
January 2021 - Rolex releases coke GMT ceramic. Rolex forum erupts in celebration


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I think this is possible. With the exception of some idiots, most people are abiding and staying in. No coke GMT though.

[pickettt]

Originally Posted by Patton250

I’ve been listening to many experts that say it’s going to get that high if we don’t stop this nonsense and I mean soon. Those are great business you name but they make up about 10 to 15% of the country. You need to hop in the car my friend and drive around your city. 90% of the business as you drive-by are small businesses and they are shut down. Most of them won’t recover. By that I mean if we keep the country closed down for months. Even if we opened the country back up next week I’m not sure how many would survive what we’ve already done to them. I’ve seen the fall out on small businesses being shut down just for a week because of a hurricane. It’s absolutely insane what we’ve done. The only people I know that seem to be bought into this whole close the country down for months on end thing are people that are financially set to do so. Hence most of the people here including myself. I’m financially set to not bring in another dime for years. I also have enough food and water on hand to survive for close to a year. However well over 90% of the country doesn’t. I’m convinced most of you are ignoring that. Well you’re going to get a big taste of it very soon. I’ll be interested to get your comments when that happens. History tells us people get unruly when they’re unable to provide for their family. However this is the first time it’s ever been forced upon them by a government(s).

If we don’t get the country back going very soon Coronavirus will be the least of our problems. I fear it’s pretty close to being too late anyway.

You seem to put an awful lot of trust and more importantly faith in these “scientific experts”. It’s as if you feel they are infallible. Well they are not. In fact they are quite often wrong and there’s really nothing wrong with that because I’m sure they do the best they can and as we all know they do lots of good things. However in this case they are literally collapsing the world economy. Also we did not elect them. I realize my opinions are unpopular on this forum but I am not the in the minority in our country on this. Blindly following the governments direction by its citizens has had many failures in our country’s short 244 year span. However nothing even remotely close compares to this.

Lastly I really don’t want to have a cut-and-paste war with people on this forum. The reason why is I don’t much respect or believe a whole lot of the sources provided by others as I’m sure they would feel about my sources. If you want to believe everything the CDC and the WHO says that’s fine. Lots of people believed what the FBI was saying a couple years ago and we now all know what happen with that.

Bottom line is I don’t trust government and I never will. At our country‘s founding the federal government was designed to be very small and therefore have a little impact on its populace. Well that is changed significantly and this crisis it’s going to make that even worse.

Edit- I was wrong about unemployment. It’s now over 6 million. My bad.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/02/week...ss-claims.html

As per our private discussions, you know your views have my support. I guess that makes us two unpopular black sheep.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Those are great business you name but they make up about 10 to 15% of the country.

Brett:

Sorry Brett, but driving by and looking at local businesses under SIP orders does not give you numbers. Not any more than looking at the stacks of caskets in Northern Italy gives you meaningful numbers about how many people will die in the US. Both arguments enable "everyone is going out of business forever" or "we are all going to die" arguments.

These are great emotional arguments if one wanted to enrage or sway a jury, but they do not give you numbers.

Here is a number: in the US, healthcare alone employs 11%.

https://www.brookings.edu/research/a...h-care-system/

Walmart: 1.5 million employees in the US.

https://corporate.walmart.com/newsroom/company-facts

US trucking and delivery: 3.5 million (and many are small businesses)

https://www.census.gov/library/stori...-trucking.html

Again, I could go on, but these are numbers.

Stay safe.

[uscmatt99]

Originally Posted by Patton250

I’ve been listening to many experts that say it’s going to get that high if we don’t stop this nonsense and I mean soon. Those are great business you name but they make up about 10 to 15% of the country. You need to hop in the car my friend and drive around your city. 90% of the business as you drive-by are small businesses and they are shut down. Most of them won’t recover. By that I mean if we keep the country closed down for months. Even if we opened the country back up next week I’m not sure how many would survive what we’ve already done to them. I’ve seen the fall out on small businesses being shut down just for a week because of a hurricane. It’s absolutely insane what we’ve done. The only people I know that seem to be bought into this whole close the country down for months on end thing are people that are financially set to do so. Hence most of the people here including myself. I’m financially set to not bring in another dime for years. I also have enough food and water on hand to survive for close to a year. However well over 90% of the country doesn’t. I’m convinced most of you are ignoring that. Well you’re going to get a big taste of it very soon. I’ll be interested to get your comments when that happens. History tells us people get unruly when they’re unable to provide for their family. However this is the first time it’s ever been forced upon them by a government(s).

If we don’t get the country back going very soon Coronavirus will be the least of our problems. I fear it’s pretty close to being too late anyway.

You seem to put an awful lot of trust and more importantly faith in these “scientific experts”. It’s as if you feel they are infallible. Well they are not. In fact they are quite often wrong and there’s really nothing wrong with that because I’m sure they do the best they can and as we all know they do lots of good things. However in this case they are literally collapsing the world economy. Also we did not elect them. I realize my opinions are unpopular on this forum but I am not the in the minority in our country on this. Blindly following the governments direction by its citizens has had many failures in our country’s short 244 year span. However nothing even remotely close compares to this.

Lastly I really don’t want to have a cut-and-paste war with people on this forum. The reason why is I don’t much respect or believe a whole lot of the sources provided by others as I’m sure they would feel about my sources. If you want to believe everything the CDC and the WHO says that’s fine. Lots of people believed what the FBI was saying a couple years ago and we now all know what happen with that.

Bottom line is I don’t trust government and I never will. At our country‘s founding the federal government was designed to be very small and therefore have a little impact on its populace. Well that is changed significantly and this crisis it’s going to make that even worse.

Edit- I was wrong about unemployment. It’s now over 6 million. My bad.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/02/week...ss-claims.html

Brett, you continually throw out made up numbers from unnamed sources to support your claims, none of which have substance beyond your opinion and personal view of the world. Then you feel like the persecuted minority when someone disagrees with you, claiming everyone's opinions are valid, two sides, etc. Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but not everyone's opinions are close to being equally valid when checked against the preponderance of evidence we are all able to assess. I am still waiting for your data regarding hurricane forecasting, actually, unless I missed that....

You're free to keep saying what you're saying and living your life the way you see fit, as a law abiding citizen. You don't have to believe anything anybody else tells you. I'm glad that in spite of your disagreement, you respect the rule of law and will continue to socially distance and abide by executive orders issued by our elected officials. I hope that you're encouraging others to do this as well.

I truly do wish you, your family, friends, citizens of the US and the rest of the world the best through this crisis. I have a lot of faith in humanity, especially when the whole world is fighting a common enemy. Among the nearly 8 billions minds out there, I'm confident we will get through this, but no matter which path we choose, it will be very hard in the near term.

[JasoninDenver]

Originally Posted by Patton250

I’ve been listening to many experts that say it’s going to get that high if we don’t stop this nonsense and I mean soon. Those are great business you name but they make up about 10 to 15% of the country. You need to hop in the car my friend and drive around your city. 90% of the business as you drive-by are small businesses and they are shut down. Most of them won’t recover. By that I mean if we keep the country closed down for months. Even if we opened the country back up next week I’m not sure how many would survive what we’ve already done to them. I’ve seen the fall out on small businesses being shut down just for a week because of a hurricane. It’s absolutely insane what we’ve done. The only people I know that seem to be bought into this whole close the country down for months on end thing are people that are financially set to do so. Hence most of the people here including myself. I’m financially set to not bring in another dime for years. I also have enough food and water on hand to survive for close to a year. However well over 90% of the country doesn’t. I’m convinced most of you are ignoring that. Well you’re going to get a big taste of it very soon. I’ll be interested to get your comments when that happens. History tells us people get unruly when they’re unable to provide for their family. However this is the first time it’s ever been forced upon them by a government(s).

If we don’t get the country back going very soon Coronavirus will be the least of our problems. I fear it’s pretty close to being too late anyway.

You seem to put an awful lot of trust and more importantly faith in these “scientific experts”. It’s as if you feel they are infallible. Well they are not. In fact they are quite often wrong and there’s really nothing wrong with that because I’m sure they do the best they can and as we all know they do lots of good things. However in this case they are literally collapsing the world economy. Also we did not elect them. I realize my opinions are unpopular on this forum but I am not the in the minority in our country on this. Blindly following the governments direction by its citizens has had many failures in our country’s short 244 year span. However nothing even remotely close compares to this.

Lastly I really don’t want to have a cut-and-paste war with people on this forum. The reason why is I don’t much respect or believe a whole lot of the sources provided by others as I’m sure they would feel about my sources. If you want to believe everything the CDC and the WHO says that’s fine. Lots of people believed what the FBI was saying a couple years ago and we now all know what happen with that.

Bottom line is I don’t trust government and I never will. At our country‘s founding the federal government was designed to be very small and therefore have a little impact on its populace. Well that is changed significantly and this crisis it’s going to make that even worse.

Edit- I was wrong about unemployment. It’s now over 6 million. My bad.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/02/week...ss-claims.html

The “sources” spouting these dire economic predictions have a horrid track record of: (1) ignoring this threat, (2) then minimizing it to the point that anyone who took preventative measures was an socialist idiot, (3) claiming it was a partisan hatchet job and then (4) blaming everyone else for the catastrophe that inevitably developed due to their willful ignorance.

Sorry, but I have no faith in ANY arguments of this type broached by this sector of society as it is likely just #5 in a continuing list.

The economic pain will be harsh and severe no matter what we do. You clearly, and reasonableY, fear the negative results of doing too much (in your mind).

What your argument fails to consider is the damage that could happen if the early opening of the economy causes another spike with the resultant fear and distrust.

Imagine being in a crowded theater or restaurant when the virus is still prevalent and someone next to you starts to have a massive coughing fit. You gonna stick around or bug out?

I cannot believe the rampant distrust in science, as if these people who have dedicated their lives to solving problems and finding answers, are somehow complicit in a big scam. For chrissakes, Dr. Fauci now has a personal protection detail because some Whack jobs are threatening him.

[Brenngun]

Originally Posted by Patton250

I’ve been listening to many experts that say it’s going to get that high if we don’t stop this nonsense and I mean soon. Those are great business you name but they make up about 10 to 15% of the country. You need to hop in the car my friend and drive around your city. 90% of the business as you drive-by are small businesses and they are shut down. Most of them won’t recover. By that I mean if we keep the country closed down for months. Even if we opened the country back up next week I’m not sure how many would survive what we’ve already done to them. I’ve seen the fall out on small businesses being shut down just for a week because of a hurricane. It’s absolutely insane what we’ve done. The only people I know that seem to be bought into this whole close the country down for months on end thing are people that are financially set to do so. Hence most of the people here including myself. I’m financially set to not bring in another dime for years. I also have enough food and water on hand to survive for close to a year. However well over 90% of the country doesn’t. I’m convinced most of you are ignoring that. Well you’re going to get a big taste of it very soon. I’ll be interested to get your comments when that happens. History tells us people get unruly when they’re unable to provide for their family. However this is the first time it’s ever been forced upon them by a government(s).

If we don’t get the country back going very soon Coronavirus will be the least of our problems. I fear it’s pretty close to being too late anyway.

You seem to put an awful lot of trust and more importantly faith in these “scientific experts”. It’s as if you feel they are infallible. Well they are not. In fact they are quite often wrong and there’s really nothing wrong with that because I’m sure they do the best they can and as we all know they do lots of good things. However in this case they are literally collapsing the world economy. Also we did not elect them. I realize my opinions are unpopular on this forum but I am not the in the minority in our country on this. Blindly following the governments direction by its citizens has had many failures in our country’s short 244 year span. However nothing even remotely close compares to this.

Lastly I really don’t want to have a cut-and-paste war with people on this forum. The reason why is I don’t much respect or believe a whole lot of the sources provided by others as I’m sure they would feel about my sources. If you want to believe everything the CDC and the WHO says that’s fine. Lots of people believed what the FBI was saying a couple years ago and we now all know what happen with that.

Bottom line is I don’t trust government and I never will. At our country‘s founding the federal government was designed to be very small and therefore have a little impact on its populace. Well that is changed significantly and this crisis it’s going to make that even worse.

Edit- I was wrong about unemployment. It’s now over 6 million. My bad.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/02/week...ss-claims.html

Brett, You've made it very clear on this and other threads that you firmly believe we are headed or are already in an economic catastrophe that will result in the breakdown of our society.

You've also stated many times that most of the civilization around you are ignorant to this potential outcome (gee thanks for your belief in our ability to follow rational thought processes).

You've now also stated your feeling that "scientific experts" are not infallible yet for some reason you seem totally convinced this economic collapse will happen. I assume because the "experts" you've been listening to you believe are infallible. Otherwise why would you be convinced they're right?

Having said all this I have 2 questions for you. What do you propose we do and who's projections should we follow?

[Bearxj86]

Originally Posted by Patton250

I’ve been listening to many experts that say it’s going to get that high if we don’t stop this nonsense and I mean soon. Those are great business you name but they make up about 10 to 15% of the country. You need to hop in the car my friend and drive around your city. 90% of the business as you drive-by are small businesses and they are shut down. Most of them won’t recover. By that I mean if we keep the country closed down for months. Even if we opened the country back up next week I’m not sure how many would survive what we’ve already done to them. I’ve seen the fall out on small businesses being shut down just for a week because of a hurricane. It’s absolutely insane what we’ve done. The only people I know that seem to be bought into this whole close the country down for months on end thing are people that are financially set to do so. Hence most of the people here including myself. I’m financially set to not bring in another dime for years. I also have enough food and water on hand to survive for close to a year. However well over 90% of the country doesn’t. I’m convinced most of you are ignoring that. Well you’re going to get a big taste of it very soon. I’ll be interested to get your comments when that happens. History tells us people get unruly when they’re unable to provide for their family. However this is the first time it’s ever been forced upon them by a government(s).

If we don’t get the country back going very soon Coronavirus will be the least of our problems. I fear it’s pretty close to being too late anyway.

You seem to put an awful lot of trust and more importantly faith in these “scientific experts”. It’s as if you feel they are infallible. Well they are not. In fact they are quite often wrong and there’s really nothing wrong with that because I’m sure they do the best they can and as we all know they do lots of good things. However in this case they are literally collapsing the world economy. Also we did not elect them. I realize my opinions are unpopular on this forum but I am not the in the minority in our country on this. Blindly following the governments direction by its citizens has had many failures in our country’s short 244 year span. However nothing even remotely close compares to this.

Lastly I really don’t want to have a cut-and-paste war with people on this forum. The reason why is I don’t much respect or believe a whole lot of the sources provided by others as I’m sure they would feel about my sources. If you want to believe everything the CDC and the WHO says that’s fine. Lots of people believed what the FBI was saying a couple years ago and we now all know what happen with that.

Bottom line is I don’t trust government and I never will. At our country‘s founding the federal government was designed to be very small and therefore have a little impact on its populace. Well that is changed significantly and this crisis it’s going to make that even worse.

Edit- I was wrong about unemployment. It’s now over 6 million. My bad.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/02/week...ss-claims.html

The solution is return to work on May 1st with everyone protected with facial and eye protection.


https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/asia/...hnk/index.html


As one of the lead finance people for a Fortune 500, I can say that a round of layoffs and 1 month furlough shutdown is necessary for most public companies to stay health with sufficient working capital. This is anticipation of re-opening on May 1st and some partial recovery that month. For each month of lockdown we will be laying off more and forloughing others. The shutdown alone has basically made any year-end bonus calculation come up with a big fat zero.

Right now for those with strong balance sheets - the lockdown hurts, it really does, but it will start being deadly past May/June.

The good news is - unemployment benefits will be about $1000 per week that's the equivalent of $52,000 per year. Pretty good and enough for people to live off until it is gone in 4 months.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by bearxj86

The solution is return to work on May 1st with everyone protected with facial and eye protection.


https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/asia/...hnk/index.html


As one of the lead finance people for a Fortune 500, I can say that a round of layoffs and 1 month furlough shutdown is necessary for most public companies to stay health with sufficient working capital. This is anticipation of re-opening on May 1st and some partial recovery that month. For each month of lockdown we will be laying off more and forloughing others. The shutdown alone has basically made any year-end bonus calculation come up with a big fat zero.

Right now for those with strong balance sheets - the lockdown hurts, it really does, but it will start being deadly past May/June.

The good news is - unemployment benefits will be about $1000 per week that's the equivalent of $52,000 per year. Pretty good and enough for people to live off until it is gone in 4 months.

I’d be surprised we be back at work on May1

[GB-man]

I have no idea. Not good would be my guess.

[watchmework]

You're guess is as good as mine....no one really knows. The country and the world will be different for sure but we will be stronger as a human race and figure it out.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by Brenngun

Brett, You've made it very clear on this and other threads that you firmly believe we are headed or are already in an economic catastrophe that will result in the breakdown of our society.

You've also stated many times that most of the civilization around you are ignorant to this potential outcome (gee thanks for your belief in our ability to follow rational thought processes).

You've now also stated your feeling that "scientific experts" are not infallible yet for some reason you seem totally convinced this economic collapse will happen. I assume because the "experts" you've been listening to you believe are infallible. Otherwise why would you be convinced they're right?

Having said all this I have 2 questions for you. What do you propose we do and who's projections should we follow?

Originally Posted by bearxj86

The solution is return to work on May 1st with everyone protected with facial and eye protection.


https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/asia/...hnk/index.html


As one of the lead finance people for a Fortune 500, I can say that a round of layoffs and 1 month furlough shutdown is necessary for most public companies to stay health with sufficient working capital. This is anticipation of re-opening on May 1st and some partial recovery that month. For each month of lockdown we will be laying off more and forloughing others. The shutdown alone has basically made any year-end bonus calculation come up with a big fat zero.

Right now for those with strong balance sheets - the lockdown hurts, it really does, but it will start being deadly past May/June.

The good news is - unemployment benefits will be about $1000 per week that's the equivalent of $52,000 per year. Pretty good and enough for people to live off until it is gone in 4 months.

I was completely wrong about unemployment. It’s now 10 million people.

What do I suggest we do? Open the economy back up. Isolate sick people over the age of 60 and start everything back up. That’s what I say we do.

I never said most of civilization was ignorant of the economic downfall coming our way if we don’t go back to work in this thread. What I said is it’s much easier for people to say stay home for 30 days when they’re living in a gated community and have enough financial protection to survive this. (Like me) That’s what I said. Not in so many words before but now I’m saying it in so many words this time. 90% to 95% of the country doesn’t live that way. They are suffering massively and we are just now starting the new 30 days. I also said people are ignoring that. Ignoring and ignorant or two different things. I hope that clears up any misunderstanding. Peace to you my friend.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by bearxj86

The solution is return to work on May 1st with everyone protected with facial and eye protection.

Unless I missed something, pp gear is being diverted to the gov, health care workers and first responders (and rightly so in my opinion) And they don't have enough. Where is everyone going to get this gear?

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by JasoninDenver

The “sources” spouting these dire economic predictions have a horrid track record of: (1) ignoring this threat, (2) then minimizing it to the point that anyone who took preventative measures was an socialist idiot, (3) claiming it was a partisan hatchet job and then (4) blaming everyone else for the catastrophe that inevitably developed due to their willful ignorance.

Sorry, but I have no faith in ANY arguments of this type broached by this sector of society as it is likely just #5 in a continuing list.

The economic pain will be harsh and severe no matter what we do. You clearly, and reasonableY, fear the negative results of doing too much (in your mind).

What your argument fails to consider is the damage that could happen if the early opening of the economy causes another spike with the resultant fear and distrust.

Imagine being in a crowded theater or restaurant when the virus is still prevalent and someone next to you starts to have a massive coughing fit. You gonna stick around or bug out?

I cannot believe the rampant distrust in science, as if these people who have dedicated their lives to solving problems and finding answers, are somehow complicit in a big scam. For chrissakes, Dr. Fauci now has a personal protection detail because some Whack jobs are threatening him.

I’ll just skip through most of what you said and say this. I’m willing to take the chance of opening the economy back up at less than a .5% death rate. That’s where it is and will probably be considerably lower once everyone is tested.

As far as Dr. Fauci getting death threats welcome to the big leagues. While it’s absolutely terrible I’m not surprised. They are all getting death threats. Look at the president. Also if you remember some whack job shot up a bunch of Republican congressman playing softball couple years ago. Talk about a death threat.

As far as science goes I very much trust it. I love science. My very own wife is quite a brilliant scientist. However true science is only truth when it’s observable and repeatable. Everything else is a theory or a guess.

Peace to you. I appreciate the cordial conversation and exchange of opinions. If you really want me to I will be glad to cut and paste links to articles that support my opinions. Obviously they are not from the New York Times, CNN and the Washington post that seems to be typical on this forum for this topic.