Is now the time to sell a 5711-blue dial?

[KarlS]

Originally Posted by koz123

... this watch will be worth much more in years to come.

Good luck then...everyone wants a bad condition watch and the top price of BNIB!!

[koz123]

Originally Posted by KarlS

Good luck then...everyone wants a bad condition watch and the top price of BNIB!!

I didn't say my watch was in bad condition. Also you're absolutely right, every vintage Rolex that sells is mint... lmao.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by koz123

... this watch will be worth much more in years to come.

Nope

[koz123]

Well being I paid 21k for mine I'll always make money. ��

[dmash]

Originally Posted by koz123

Well being I paid 21k for mine I'll always make money. ��

That, I would agree with



In regards to it being worth 'much more', I said no because at the end of the day it's a three handed sports watch. There's a ceiling that's not going to be crossed as it's a current production model (although lower numbers) that won't be discontinued any time in the near future. I'm going to predict within 5 years practically everybody who wants one will have it and we'll be back to list price. Hence me definitely saying now or in the next year is prime time to sell if you don't really wear.

$20k-$25k (in current year) is the sweet spot for this kind of watch. Many people forget that Patek even dropped the price on this watch a few thousand $ in recent years. $30k MSRP is too high for the kind of watch you get IMO. Hype bubble is making people disregard this logic.

[koz123]

I guess no one really knows. Time will tell, to be honest, I can't sell mine anyway. I love it far too much.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by koz123

I guess no one really knows. Time will tell, to be honest, I can't sell mine anyway. I love it far too much.

Even if you could get $50k, if it's something you love, it would be silly to sell anyways.

[KarlS]

Originally Posted by koz123

I didn't say my watch was in bad condition. Also you're absolutely right, every vintage Rolex that sells is mint... lmao.

Correct they all broken and non that are mint get top dollar...let's move on

[martinr]

Patek didn't cut the price there was a price adjustment due to currency fluctuations some places it went up and in the US went down 7%. The watch is still about 10% cheaper in Switzerland.

[dmash]

It's still relative to my valuation of 20-$25k worth in Current year....that's why I used the US dollar.

[martinr]

Originally Posted by dmash

It's still relative to my valuation of 20-$25k worth in Current year....that's why I used the US dollar.

Sorry but I don't know what you mean. The retail price in the US is now 24,800 and I told you how Patek arrived at that price. You can predict whatever you want I don't really care but let's not spread misinformation about price cuts and why they occurred.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by martinr

Sorry but I don't know what you mean. The retail price in the US is now 24,800 and I told you how Patek arrived at that price. You can predict whatever you want I don't really care but let's not spread misinformation about price cuts and why they occurred.

Where's the misinformation being spread? Who claimed anything about why a price cut occurred? The only thing I said was 'Patek dropped the price', they did.....I never gave a specific reason or claimed why. If you're referring to how I said that '$30k MSRP is too high for this watch'...... that is my opinion. I never said it was because Patek thought it's too high as well.

Maybe you should reread posts?

[martinr]

You said a lot of contradictory things and I'll leave it at that and add you to my ignore list.

[Calatrava r]

Originally Posted by KarlS

The watch debate has been going in circles for ages much as the quartz was the death of the mechanical watch industry it will adapt. if you are looking solely for a time piece use a phone. If you are buying a piece of mechanical marvel that is really the only piece if Jewellery a man can own...buy a watch

Hi Karl. Not quite the same. Quartz watches while more accurate than mechanical watches, are both are still watches. The rivalry between them was between traditional watches. Gladly, mechanical watches came into their own and appreciated by a growing market segment and kept alive and up to pace with quartz. Now we are seeing the entire traditional watch industry under threat from complete non-use of watches or wearable devices. To me this is a new dimension that clearly some of the best manufacturers will survive but I think it will be at a far lower output than we presently have.

[bobernet]

My perspective, while anecdotal, seems to indicate the opposite. I talk to people who are new to mechanical / luxury watches fairly regularly. Just today, I handed one of my guys a Speedmaster to test drive over the weekend, as he was considering it and a Navitimer as a first mechanical watch purchase.

I think the industry, as a whole, is over-producing right now, but I don't see the core market drying up. Old people die, young people get interested in watches, middle-aged people start having enough disposable income to buy higher-end watches. It's a cycle that appears pretty stable to me.

[Russell996]

Originally Posted by bobernet

my perspective, while anecdotal, seems to indicate the opposite. I talk to people who are new to mechanical / luxury watches fairly regularly. Just today, i handed one of my guys a speedmaster to test drive over the weekend, as he was considering it and a navitimer as a first mechanical watch purchase.

I think the industry, as a whole, is over-producing right now, but i don't see the core market drying up. Old people die, young people get interested in watches, middle-aged people start having enough disposable income to buy higher-end watches. It's a cycle that appears pretty stable to me.

+1

[nyc2la]

Originally Posted by russell996

+1

Originally Posted by bobernet

my perspective, while anecdotal, seems to indicate the opposite. I talk to people who are new to mechanical / luxury watches fairly regularly. Just today, i handed one of my guys a speedmaster to test drive over the weekend, as he was considering it and a navitimer as a first mechanical watch purchase.

I think the industry, as a whole, is over-producing right now, but i don't see the core market drying up. Old people die, young people get interested in watches, middle-aged people start having enough disposable income to buy higher-end watches. It's a cycle that appears pretty stable to me.

+2

[Defiancekofb]

Originally Posted by dmash

That, I would agree with

In regards to it being worth 'much more', I said no because at the end of the day it's a three handed sports watch. There's a ceiling that's not going to be crossed as it's a current production model (although lower numbers) that won't be discontinued any time in the near future. I'm going to predict within 5 years practically everybody who wants one will have it and we'll be back to list price. Hence me definitely saying now or in the next year is prime time to sell if you don't really wear.

$20k-$25k (in current year) is the sweet spot for this kind of watch. Many people forget that Patek even dropped the price on this watch a few thousand $ in recent years. $30k MSRP is too high for the kind of watch you get IMO. Hype bubble is making people disregard this logic.

I have to disagree here, Rolex Daytona SS has always been scarce and has always sold for a premium. Now the Daytona-C is out, it's the same level of supply and demand. But at the end of the day the Daytona SS is also a mass produced steel watch, but yet people will pay the premium because they don't want to wait 1-2 years or more for one.

Originally Posted by bobernet

My perspective, while anecdotal, seems to indicate the opposite. I talk to people who are new to mechanical / luxury watches fairly regularly. Just today, I handed one of my guys a Speedmaster to test drive over the weekend, as he was considering it and a Navitimer as a first mechanical watch purchase.

I think the industry, as a whole, is over-producing right now, but I don't see the core market drying up. Old people die, young people get interested in watches, middle-aged people start having enough disposable income to buy higher-end watches. It's a cycle that appears pretty stable to me.

Well Said.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Defiancekofb

I have to disagree here, Rolex Daytona SS has always been scarce and has always sold for a premium. Now the Daytona-C is out, it's the same level of supply and demand. But at the end of the day the Daytona SS is also a mass produced steel watch, but yet people will pay the premium because they don't want to wait 1-2 years or more for one.

Not comparable in my opinion.

First, the Rolex name is household and known by everyone. The demand is on a completely different level than any Patek piece ever produced. Second, you're talking about a watch that is less than 1/2 the price of a 5711. Most watch people can at some point justify a $10-$12k single purchase......however $25k is a literal down payment on a house to most. The demand for a piece like the 5711 will be met, and then die off. Demand for the Daytona will always be there, because you have people waiting in droves.

[Defiancekofb]

Originally Posted by dmash

Not comparable in my opinion.

First, the Rolex name is household and known by everyone. The demand is on a completely different level than any Patek piece ever produced. Second, you're talking about a watch that is less than 1/2 the price of a 5711. Most people in the world would consider $10-$12k on a single piece silly......and $25k is a literal down payment on a house to most. The demand for that kind of piece will be met, and then die off.

People are paying $17k for a Daytona-C on the secondary market, which is they could be buying a pre-owned Patek Aquanaut 5167 or a brand new AP RO 15400. The Nautilus has always been scarce since it's inception in 1976. But I guess demand will be met and die off since you say so.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Defiancekofb

People are paying $17k for a Daytona-C, which is they could be buying a Patek Aquanaut or a brand new AP RO 15400. The Nautilus has always been scarce since it's inception in 1976. But I guess demand will be met and die off since you say so.

When was the Nautilus scarce before last few years?

[Defiancekofb]

Originally Posted by dmash

When was the Nautilus scarce before last few years?

I think you should research the history of Patek. The overall production numbers alone would attribute the scarcity of the product.

[dmash]

I'm stating that in the sense of being able to acquire the piece. Not production numbers. You can simply say Patek as a brand is scarce using that logic.

[Defiancekofb]

Originally Posted by dmash

I'm stating that in the sense of being able to acquire the piece. Not production numbers. You can simply say Patek as a brand is scarce using that logic.

Yeah and with that you answered your own question. You seem to want me to break out an MS excel spreadsheet to prove the scarcity of the Nautilus. It's well known that Patek ADs only get 2 Nautilus' annually and 4 5167 Aquanauts annually. Rolex makes close to a million watches a year, but yet they can't produce enough Daytona-Cs? Don't get me wrong I'm not hating on Rolex, I have a BLNR myself, but the Daytona-C scarcity is totally fabricated.

[dmash]

Maybe you should break out the dictionary and google what 'scarce' means to begin with (I'll help, it involves having a demand for something). There were practically no lists for a 5711 4-5 years ago (could have one within 1-2 months easy). Just as you say, today's scarcity is purely based on PP's supply. The amount of people wanting this watch now is relatively low, even with PP's production numbers it should be met in adequate time.

I feel there will ALWAYS be random people every month wanting another Daytona, don't feel it's the case for a $25k ($30k with tax) 5711.

but hey, we can agree to disagree.

[dmash]

I do agree with you that the Daytona stuff is ridiculous though. It is beyond me how a manufacturer of that volume is going to act like a SS piece can't be upped in production to meet demand. and all it's doing is giving the grey market more power, don't get it. I 100% understand PP not increasing, much smaller scale, don't want to follow AP's footsteps with all the focus on one model, etc.

[Defiancekofb]

Originally Posted by dmash

Maybe you should break out the dictionary and google what 'scarce' means to begin with (I'll help, it involves having a demand for something). There were practically no lists for a 5711 4-5 years ago (could have one within 1-2 months easy). Just as you say, today's scarcity is purely based on PP's supply. The amount of people wanting this watch now is relatively low, even with PP's production numbers it should be met in adequate time.

I feel there will ALWAYS be random people every month wanting another Daytona, don't feel it's the case for a $25k ($30k with tax) 5711.

but hey, we can agree to disagree.

This is where I agree with martinr and put you on ignore. I'm sick of talking to a Rolex troll.

[KarlS]

Originally Posted by Defiancekofb

This is where I agree with martinr and put you on ignore. I'm sick of talking to a Rolex troll.

You mean he doesn't have an extensive PP collection considering his expert views on the brand????

[Defiancekofb]

Originally Posted by KarlS

You mean he doesn't have an extensive PP collection considering his expert views on the brand????

He PM'ed me a photo of his brown boxes, so I just assumed his views were valid.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by KarlS

You mean he doesn't have an extensive PP collection considering his expert views on the brand????

FWIW I never meant for it to come across like that. I just feel strongly about the 'hype' surrounding the 5711 in current state!

Was all in good fun, didn't mean to irritate anybody and get put on 'block lists' just for responding with my own opinion. Apologies.