Investment

[enhamhale]

Has anyone got some areas of which model may be a good investment at moment because money is not doing anything I have a budget of really £5000-£6000 to invest , I already have a 5513 and a 16600

[GGGMT]

I think vintage DJs, and I'm
Noticing an uptick, because everyone "big" such as 1680, 6238, 5512, 5513, daytonas are stupid expensive.


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[Wesley Crusher]

Don't buy a watch as an investment.

[jmiicustomz]

REALLY?!?! a watch might be a hedge against inflation but an investment?!?! Watches, classic cars, boomsticks, etc are very VERY rarely investments. If you luck up and your crystal ball works the day you buy you might have an investment, usually a poor one on rate of return but.....
In most cases, if you buy at a fair price and sell at a fair price, you will have not really lost or gained once inflation is accounted for.

To know the future is to be trapped by it

[GGGMT]

Originally Posted by Wesley Crusher

Don't buy a watch as an investment.

That's certainly a prevalent view here. But for me, other than life essentials (E. G., Food, water, clothing, healthcare, transportation, entertainment, education), I treat virtually every nonessential thing I buy as an investment, including houses, art, jewelry for my wife, watches, securities, etc. If I don't believe it's going to appreciate, I don't buy it.


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[rootbeer7]

Matte dial sports models.

[Tom1675]

Originally Posted by jmiicustomz

REALLY?!?! a watch might be a hedge against inflation but an investment?!?! Watches, classic cars, boomsticks, etc are very VERY rarely investments. If you luck up and your crystal ball works the day you buy you might have an investment, usually a poor one on rate of return but.....
In most cases, if you buy at a fair price and sell at a fair price, you will have not really lost or gained once inflation is accounted for.

To know the future is to be trapped by it

Very true but to try and not end up taking a loss get something in as good condition as you can. IMHO Get rid of the 16600 and take your now 12k or so and get the best explorer you can find, or explorer ii...

[JP Chestnut]

Originally Posted by Tom1675

Very true but to try and not end up taking a loss get something in as good condition as you can. IMHO Get rid of the 16600 and take your now 12k or so and get the best explorer you can find, or explorer ii...

The 16600 is currently undervalued. Now would be a tough time to sell.

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by JP Chestnut

The 16600 is currently undervalued. Now would be a tough time to sell.

Was going to say lol buy another 16600!

[JP Chestnut]

Originally Posted by GB-man

Was going to say lol buy another 16600!

There's a certain... uh... logic to selling low (16600) and buying high (any pelxi model).

If I'm firing up the crystal ball, I think the last of the tritium dials are the next to take off. A tritium 16600 of 14060 would be a nice buy. They seem be caught in a weird lull between real vintage and the nearly modern late five digits. Five digit explorer 2s are super cool and pretty cheap as well.

Of course buying the watch you like > buying what some dudes on the internet tell you is a good investment.

[roh123]

I see a possible crystal ball malfunction.

[Woody]

Originally Posted by GGGMT

That's certainly a prevalent view here. But for me, other than life essentials (E. G., Food, water, clothing, healthcare, transportation, entertainment, education), I treat virtually every nonessential thing I buy as an investment, including houses, art, jewelry for my wife, watches, securities, etc. If I don't believe it's going to appreciate, I don't buy it.


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How sad.......

[Kingface66]

If you have $10,000, and consider that a substantial amount of money, and with that money you could invest in equities, bonds, property, etc., but, instead, spend it on a 50 year-old timepiece that has been in increasing in market value for years now, you wouldn't at least consider that an investment? I'm not saying that I don't have a genuine keen interest/passion for these old watches, but for that amount of money I am absolutely aware of what kind of investment it is.
And to add to that point, in the years I've been buying and selling these watches, what I own now (a '66 gilt, a '67 5512, and a '77 1680) have all increased in value substantially from what I paid. I can't help but regard those purchases as good investments.

And, to be sure, yes, I still love staring at them when I wear one!

[nuno116600]

If you like watches, I think vinatge rolex's are good investments.
They go up in value in the long run and you can use and apriciate, show off them daily. I think the Daytona 6362, 1665, 1655 have the most potensial to go up IMHO.

[brookish]

Oyster Quarz

[landroverking]

3rd thread I seen today on investments.

[JP Chestnut]

Originally Posted by landroverking

3rd thread I seen today on investments.

There's actually a fourth:
https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=547945

[Toronto Soup King]

If I were looking purely as investments I'd try to find three eBay DJs with excellent dials, hands, and cases, polish the crystals, put them on new leather straps, and then market them to people looking for a no-fuss vintage model. I think you'd make money flipping like that, if you were careful, enough return to make it worthwhile on a piece-by-piece basis. But if you're doing THAT you are essentially doing the work of a normal dealer, is it really investing, or just a part-time job?

I consider my own Rolexes to be valued personal items that happen to hold their value and are easy to sell if necessary - I don't utterly discount them from lists of my assets as I would my shoes or clothes, for example, they DO have a market value. But my other investments are held purely for their dividend, hedge, or appreciation value. My Rolexes are my shiny toys, I'd have to be in dire straits to consider selling, all stocks/bonds would go first

[roh123]

If we are to talk about investments I think we should raise the bar a bit from speaking of normal watches below 10k. Nothing wrong with those pieces but prices for those fluctuate a lot and I would not recommend anyone to invest in that. If investing long term I think you should look at rarity, condition and current demand. Even if demand could change drasticly I think the models which are popular today probably will be popular tomorrow. I'd say hoping for sapphire sports or OQ's to go up is a pretty bad risk/reward situation.

That said it can't be good but I wouldn't recommend it unless it is money worth losing and it being watches you really like.

Personally I would invest in things which are already hot such as top quality pieces from Patek and Rolex. Not trying to find the undervalued bastard which haven't yet had its journey up.

If I had to make a pick today I would still say that perfect gilt rolexes are cheap. Very few perfect ones around and even at todays prices I see them as cheap.

[PVR]

Well let me add my 2 cents as I do this as a hobby, but it has become a legitimate income producing hobby.

I used to own a lot of Pateks and for years they did appreciate. About 10 years ago I sold one of my last big pieces, a 5970G for 132k or 134k, I don't remember.
Every now and then I look at what 5970G's are selling for today, and they haven't appreciated a penny in nearly 10 years. You can look and see prices all over the place, but they are trading the same at around 134k.

At the same time I bought a Gilt 1675 for $6000. That watch today is worth at least 14k. Bought a 6265 for 25k at the same time and its worth 65-75k now.

I sell a lot of watches to guys in Singapore and all of them tell me they buy them as investments. The value of the watches goes up at least 10% a year and you get the pleasure of wearing them. They are also liquid internationally, so you can come to the US with it on your wrist or to Paris and cash out on the spot for USD or Euros.

Not too many investments that have transportability, liquidity and appreciate 10% a year. So I am also on board with all purchases being investments.

[motoikkyu]

Just remember, there are fashions in retro as there are in everything else. In the 1980s, bubblebacks were all the rage, and the sky was the limit for prices. Many sold for more than $4k in those days. That's $4k in 1980s dollars! I bought a beautiful 14K bubbleback last year for $1800, desirable model, very nice condition. The prices have come down considerably for average or more common examples.

Buy the best condition that you can afford, those are the examples that are always in demand.

[roh123]

Originally Posted by motoikkyu

Just remember, there are fashions in retro as there are in everything else. In the 1980s, bubblebacks were all the rage, and the sky was the limit for prices. Many sold for more than $4k in those days. That's $4k in 1980s dollars! I bought a beautiful 14K bubbleback last year for $1800, desirable model, very nice condition. The prices have come down considerably for average or more common examples.

Buy the best condition that you can afford, those are the examples that are always in demand.

This is true but I believe the hot things today will stay hot longer due to the timeless design and current fashion. Bubblebacks were hot in a very small market and basically hot as they were just old like antiques. Unless fashion changes quickly to super small or super big watches I believe that whats hot today will also ve hot tomorrow. Thw market is just way bigger and more mature today than it was in the 80's. That said anything can happen but I'm just not a big fan of this analogy that often comes up when we speak about current prices.

[Lordofrolex]

Cant buy a watch as an investment so i say you should buy what you want

[JP Chestnut]

Originally Posted by motoikkyu

Just remember, there are fashions in retro as there are in everything else. In the 1980s, bubblebacks were all the rage, and the sky was the limit for prices. Many sold for more than $4k in those days. That's $4k in 1980s dollars! I bought a beautiful 14K bubbleback last year for $1800, desirable model, very nice condition. The prices have come down considerably for average or more common examples.

Buy the best condition that you can afford, those are the examples that are always in demand.

Do you know what's currently different between bubble backs and say a 1680? The bubble back is
1) small by modern standards, and
2) hard to service.

If either of those can eventually be said about the current hot vintage models... people are going to lose some money.

[Will1979]

Maybe it's just a semantics issue, but if you're calling a Rolex an investment, you're either a poor investor or including inflation hedges in your definition of investment. One example: a 1973 sub date that cost $385 in 1973 looks like quite an "investment" at today's price of ~$15k. But if you had taken the same $385, put it in the Dow and reinvested dividends, you'd have just over $39k (and no service or insurance costs). So even the models that have done exceedingly well in the past decade pale in comparison to even the most pedestrian of real "investments."

The rise in wrist watch prices is a recent and somewhat arbitrary phenomenon. I think it is more likely than not that over the next 25 years, nearly all wrist watches fail to keep up with inflation from their current prices. That still won't stop me from buying and enjoying the hell out of them. But it will keep me from using money marked for retirement or college funds on watches.

[motoikkyu]

With all due respect to roh123, I will politely disagree. There is nothing "mature" about today's markets, if anything, fashions fluctuate more dramatically and radically, due to better and faster communication. Wristwatches have been common for 100 years, that is all. Automobiles about the same. Do you sincerely believe there will still be internal combustion automobiles predominating in 10 years? How about 15? When the last of the generation that loved internal combustion dies, what will that do to the classic car market? Electrics are potentially way more powerful and faster. Big houses were all the rage twenty years ago and there was no better investment than quality antique furniture: values just kept going up. Now, tiny houses, and antique furniture doesn't sell at all.

The wristwatches from the dawn of the wristwatch era were tiny by modern standards. They only lost their value relatively recently. Large watches were popular in the 70's and are popular again today, but Swatch and Swatch-size dominated for over ten years between the 70s and today. The argument that "what's popular today will ALWAYS be popular" hasn't been a particularly durable argument. Nobody is pressuring me to join Facebook these days.

It's very tempting to "invest" in tangibles: they are real, they can be seen and handled. But always remember that things change. This is even true about real estate, I could list many places in the US that were very "hot", sometimes for over 100 years, that are now readily available for bargain prices. Do you want to buy a hat factory? Until JFK, no self-respecting American male had ventured outside without a hat for over 100 years.

Enjoy what you enjoy, while you can. Things change. When the last disciple of a given faith dies, their god dies with them.

[roh123]

I hear what you say but I still do not believe in your analogy with bubblebacks. Am I investing in wrist watches? No. I do however enjoy them and I still believe the market will move up. It is however not a driver for me as I already spent the money I have in my watches and I do not plan an exit.

[motoikkyu]

I have few regrets from my years of collecting, roh123, you will probably be the same. There is a great satisfaction in buying a piece at the right price and wearing it and knowing the value is as great or greater than when you purchased it. Some do go down in price, so it makes sense not to buy at the absolute height of the wave, but most will steadily appreciate a little, at least keeping pace with inflation. When I was in high school, $60k was a house with 3-4 bedrooms. Now, it is a Daytona. That's life. Most of the debate on this forum seems to be whether that appreciation is predictable enough to be considered an "investment" and the consensus seems to be "no". If it's any help, the pieces in my collection that have appreciated the most were ones that I would NEVER have predicted to rise in value, watches that I bought ONLY because I liked them. Except for the Red. I knew I couldn't go wrong with a Red Submariner.

[roh123]

Still the red sub is probably one of the slow movers the last 5-10 years. They, the DRSD and the 1655 was the early hype watches who haven't moved much compared to gilts, Daytonas etc. A poor red sub wasn't much cheaper then that they are today. Still of course decent return but not really that great comparing with other pieces.

I'd rather compare todays vintage watch market with art. Then watches are still very cheap and for more people.

[motoikkyu]

Art is terrifying to me. I love Japanese woodblock art. It's currently very affordable because it is solidly out of fashion. Have you heard of Paul Jacoulet? He was absolutely huge post-WWII in the woodblock world. Apparently, Gen. MacArthur's wife was a big fan. His prints sold for tens of thousands, which in 1950s and 1960s dollars was a lot. I think you can buy nearly any of them now for less than $5k. Yet, they still have merit, still have everything going for them that they ever had, they're just out of fashion at the moment. I'm not rushing to buy them up.

Same with bubblebacks. I bought my first bubbleback because I fell in love with the way it looked. I mean, of course, I liked the way it looked ON ME. Others followed. It doesn't bother me that they are trending DOWN right now, I'm not looking to make a killing. As I said, by the time I'm ready to divest my holdings, I expect that 90% of the human race will not be wearing wristwatches. I'm in the process of getting rid of most of my 1960s and 1970s Heuer chronographs: I don't think those values will ever be as high again as they are right now and I don't wear them any more.

So, I'd agree, what happens in the watch world also happens in the art world. I suspect Warhol will not be huge in 100 years as ART, but the pieces may still trade at the established values.