Greys not budging, just tried

[djyolky]

Originally Posted by garyk

They can probably hold steady for months. Supply on a global scale isn't huge IMHO...This might all be over by the time they would have to sacrifice inventory...Just my two cents...

They can't hold out for months because ADs are now/will be selling to first time customers at MSRP.

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[L.K Johnson]

This fresh watch market analysis has probably been posted already somewhere in the general section but I think it's quite an interesting read even though they might be bias:

https://www.watchpro.com/the-big-int...-online-sales/

[Commonproject]

Originally Posted by AbsolutelyROLEX!

Just tried to make an offer on a 116500 on chrono24
$19795 listed
Will not go any lower, even when mentioning 800 others listed
I dont know guys, I think everybody is going to hold out

I don't view Chrono24 as a true grey - it's a bunch of randos. Their prices have always been ridiculous and above market because they see other watches listed high.

[WatchNutcase]

Originally Posted by djyolky

Just wait to see what will happen as the end of April approaches. Pants will start dropping.

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This

[AbsolutelyROLEX!]

Originally Posted by AbsolutelyROLEX!

Just made an offer of 19k....

Ok so they accepted 19k
Wonder if they would have gone lower

[C_Troy242]

Probably. If not today, then tomorrow.

[sokoloka]

Originally Posted by AbsolutelyROLEX!

Ok so they accepted 19k
Wonder if they would have gone lower

If you want the watch and got the offer accepted time to follow through and not wonder about what could have been.

That's why you always start lower and negotiate UP. But at least you got what you wanted!

[daOnlyBG]

Originally Posted by AbsolutelyROLEX!

It was a black
I just asked what his lowest would be

Asking sellers to bid against themselves without making an offer first is a pretty safe way to get on their bad side early.

Originally Posted by AbsolutelyROLEX!

Ok so they accepted 19k
Wonder if they would have gone lower

$19K is fair. Glad it worked out and congrats on the new piece.

[Xtralarg]

Tell him to stick it where the sun dont shine.

Give it a month or 3, they will drop

[Ocog]

I find it rather odd that members of the Rolex Forum are hoping for a crash and for Grey and private sellers to be affected negatively by the current events. Yet, you all are looking to purchase when that does happen.

How about we hope everyone is doing well and quick recovery from this disaster?

[Golf&Watches]

Originally Posted by schoolboy

Asking what the lowest will be doesn’t usually work

Maybe you can message him/her and say “hey I can offer $19,000”

Something like that might work

Yes, to negotiate an offer is a good place to start.

[JasTPE]

I had enquired about a SS/WG Skydweller Blue dial not long ago, the offer came in really high, more than double MSRP, so I turned down the offer.

The dealer just came back today with a lower offer, still extremely high in my opinion but I guess things will start to change slowly.

Will it collapse? I doubt it, but we could expect to see some softening in Greys' pricing. The listed prices may still be the same, but there may be room for negotiations.

[Calatrava r]

Supply chains are down right now so no new product. I see the prices softening at some point but only because owners will be selling creating abundant supply of used watches. Plus. I see the overall watch market softening from here. This cycle is running its course. It was overhyped and when that happens it eventually burns its self out. But their will always be a market for the used stuff so re-sellers will do fine if they buy right to maintain a sufficient margin to stay in business.

[andyxxx]

Originally Posted by AK797

If they can hold on they will hold on, with severe lockdowns in place this thing could start to turn in a couple of months, esp with public perception as the initial fear over this virus will have dissipated and the economist's voice will start to trump the medic's. With everyone now committed to combating this virus, this looks like a shorter term micro issue than a long term macro issue.

I hope you are correct but I suspect you are very wrong.

If the OP was in the UK I would snap his hand off for that offer -and would indeed take considerably less.

[Triple Crown]

Originally Posted by Flintstone

Grey's aren't hurting.....especially with a large number of Ad's shutdown.

I wonder how many ADs are truly shut down. While they may be “closed to the public,” I suspect that many are accepting “private appointments.”

[Michael V]

Originally Posted by AbsolutelyROLEX!

Ok so they accepted 19k
Wonder if they would have gone lower

That was a foolish offer imho. Wait a month and see what happens. Those with cash in the nearer future will be king. MSRP or cheaper from here on out.

[DBlue2018]

Originally Posted by AbsolutelyROLEX!

Ok so they accepted 19k
Wonder if they would have gone lower

You’ve made the offer now
It’s been accepted
Be a decent human and honour your offer

[Michael V]

Originally Posted by Ocog

I find it rather odd that members of the Rolex Forum are hoping for a crash and for Grey and private sellers to be affected negatively by the current events. Yet, you all are looking to purchase when that does happen.

As an owner and planning to make future purchases I could not care less about the resale of my pieces. I bought them because I love the watch and plan to hand them down. So it makes no difference to me and I am sure many others.

[DBlue2018]

Originally Posted by Michael V

That was a foolish offer imho. Wait a month and see what happens. Those with cash in the nearer future will be king. MSRP or cheaper from here on out.

You’re telling someone to back out of an offer they have made and had accepted?

Isn’t that ungentlemanly

I feel he is overpaying but I’d rather be true to my word

[Andrew NYC]

Originally Posted by Bigblu10

Hold out for how long?
The USA economy is now going to be shut down until May.
Let's see how long these watch dealers can go with no cash flow and just sit on inventory collecting dust.

I honestly think it'll take a few more months for prices to materially drop. A lot of the greys have low overhead and operate out of their homes, small office suites, etc. and those who have larger retail spaces likely haven't had more than a month or two of rent, salary, advertising costs since this thing begun here in the US. Also, based on the inflated market prices they have been enjoying over the past few years many greys may have squirreled away acorns so that they are able to ride something like this out, at least in the short term.

There's also the fact that once prices start to fall it can become a race to the bottom. Smart economics says no seller should lower their price but in challenging market conditions some sellers don't have that option. I suspect that while the temptation is there to drop prices to move inventory no one wants to make the first move. I don't remember clearly but I don't believe we saw massive fire sales in 2008 when the financial markets crashed. While this current situation may eclipse that I suspect that it will still take some time before the prices materially change more broadly.

[ArtNouveau]

Originally Posted by hark

Dealer probably doesn’t want to negotiate against himself. Many dealers simply won’t respond to ‘what’s your lowest prices’ inquiries. You’d need to offer him a number that you’re willing to pay, and if he says yes you really should buy..

Same. When I've sold a few watches in the past a "what's your lowest price" is given no response. If you really want it YOU need to make an offer.

[superstarmar]

Originally Posted by sokoloka

If you want the watch and got the offer accepted time to follow through and not wonder about what could have been.

That's why you always start lower and negotiate UP. But at least you got what you wanted!

Spot on ...

[scottwmitch]

Originally Posted by AbsolutelyROLEX!

Ok so they accepted 19k
Wonder if they would have gone lower

Tell them your phone auto-corrected and you meant 17k.

[ale70]

Originally Posted by scottwmitch

Tell them your phone auto-corrected and you meant 17k.

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by Ocog

I find it rather odd that members of the Rolex Forum are hoping for a crash and for Grey and private sellers to be affected negatively by the current events. Yet, you all are looking to purchase when that does happen.

How about we hope everyone is doing well and quick recovery from this disaster?

Why can’t we hope for both? Why does one have to mean the other? The grey market crashing most likely will mean that our hobby is back in our favor and we can stop seeing these investment threads pop up every 2hrs.

We can still wish everyone well and good health

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by AbsolutelyROLEX!

Ok so they accepted 19k
Wonder if they would have gone lower

Congrats man! Post an incoming

[Cloudchaser]

Originally Posted by AbsolutelyROLEX!

Just made an offer of 19k....

So people are still willing to pay a premium for Rolex watches (edited...congrats!).

With most ADs and other brick and mortars closed, it's largely "the greys" left to...

Buy low, because people are currently panic selling like you wouldn't believe. Any "grey" with liquidity is having a buying field day right now, enough even to subsidize some of their aged inventory. There are many, many variables at play here. It is not as simple as "how can they still be holding price?" Check trade values at Bob's, for example; it is a great time to be buying at wholesale.

[yonexsp]

Originally Posted by AbsolutelyROLEX!

Just made an offer of 19k....

Mad! Under this climate you barely discounted at all

[Podmornica]

LoL, it seems like the OP didn't intend to purchase the watch in the first place, and more likely just wanted to sense the market and see how much they are prepared to bargain ..

When I was selling some expensive stuff on eBay, there were more than a few buyers who made offers and then went mute, so nothing to worry about here ..

I can see some of the greys panicking already as I have received more than one message from the greys asking me if I was still interested in that BLRO that I have expressed my interest in, even before the New Year eve .. So, judging by that, they literally have zero new buyers with the current prices but they are willing to negotiate now ..

[Benzsiam]

It's too early to ask for discount, wait another month and check their price again.