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Old 22 March 2020, 12:19 PM   #1
Suttree
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5712R Questions

Hey all, just wanted to pose a question or two and gauge the general consensus around here. Recently I’ve taken a real liking to the 5712R. I love Patek’s rose gold, the dial, and that it looks great on a croc strap and super sporty on a RubberB. I know there’s no such thing as an “easy to get” Nautilus these days, but with the majority of the crazy demand being for SS pieces and, perhaps secondarily, the desire for the silky Nautilus bracelet in any metal choice, how difficult do you think it would be to source the 5712r from an AD? I would have to assume demand has to be significantly less than its steel and bracelet counterparts, no?

Also, and not to start another Covid19 vs prices/demand thread, but if/when there’s a significant decrease in buyers willing to snatch up any and all sport Patek models to flip for profit I would have to assume this would be one of the first Nautilus models people would cross of their list?

In any case, just wanted to hear your thoughts. My (semi) local AD is closed for the foreseeable but I intend to call and/or possibly stop in when they open and we all have a little clearer picture of what’s going on in the world.
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Old 22 March 2020, 12:44 PM   #2
Johndong888
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Suttree View Post
Hey all, just wanted to pose a question or two and gauge the general consensus around here. Recently I’ve taken a real liking to the 5712R. I love Patek’s rose gold, the dial, and that it looks great on a croc strap and super sporty on a RubberB. I know there’s no such thing as an “easy to get” Nautilus these days, but with the majority of the crazy demand being for SS pieces and, perhaps secondarily, the desire for the silky Nautilus bracelet in any metal choice, how difficult do you think it would be to source the 5712r from an AD? I would have to assume demand has to be significantly less than its steel and bracelet counterparts, no?

Also, and not to start another Covid19 vs prices/demand thread, but if/when there’s a significant decrease in buyers willing to snatch up any and all sport Patek models to flip for profit I would have to assume this would be one of the first Nautilus models people would cross of their list?

In any case, just wanted to hear your thoughts. My (semi) local AD is closed for the foreseeable but I intend to call and/or possibly stop in when they open and we all have a little clearer picture of what’s going on in the world.

Even with a lessen demand, the factory is closed as well so kind of a wash.


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Old 22 March 2020, 02:09 PM   #3
Kittayos
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As long as the piece can flip for 50% profit or more, don’t expect it to come easy. 5712r belongs to that category.
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Old 22 March 2020, 03:32 PM   #4
CHEY
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Originally Posted by Johndong888 View Post
Even with a lessen demand, the factory is closed as well so kind of a wash.


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The declining prices on the 5712r (as well as other nautiluses and aquanauts) suggest that the decrease in demand far exceeds the decrease in supply and that it has not been a wash.

The reason is simple - not only do we see significantly reduced new demand, existing demand also drops significantly. The factory closure means no new supply, but existing supply is still here. So not a wash.
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Old 23 March 2020, 04:45 AM   #5
DayTona78
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Agree

Prices and cares on most, if not all luxury items have already began their descent.

Quote:
Originally Posted by CHEY View Post
The declining prices on the 5712r (as well as other nautiluses and aquanauts) suggest that the decrease in demand far exceeds the decrease in supply and that it has not been a wash.

The reason is simple - not only do we see significantly reduced new demand, existing demand also drops significantly. The factory closure means no new supply, but existing supply is still here. So not a wash.
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Old 23 March 2020, 04:55 AM   #6
aa909
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I'm watching this piece too. For the first time in a long time I'm seeing this piece offered for under $60K by multiple sellers on chrono24

IMO Prices will keep dropping into the spring. the bubble is bursting, how could it not with global Markets losing >$24 Trillion in 2 weeks. Luxury goods are on the margin of purchases, demand is eroding fast.

My advice is if you are in the market DO NOT buy now. Sellers are still holding tight to inventory, let the damage work it's way through over the next 4-8 weeks or longer. Then step in
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Old 23 March 2020, 05:16 AM   #7
chiscott_29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Johndong888 View Post
Even with a lessen demand, the factory is closed as well so kind of a wash.


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Certainly not a wash.

I think you have two camps. You have VIPs that are able to get the hot models. They are never, ever going to pay over retail. They’ll wait this out just like they would anyway and won’t influence the secondary market unless a specific watch falls through the retail price floor. VIPs are, I’m sure, savvy buyers and will pounce on watches they truly desire if they fall below retail.

Then there are the people in the secondary market. These collectors tend to be very price aware and are usually not VIPs for various reasons. I’d say they’re savvy too, at least the people that genuinely enjoy watches. This is certainly the camp I fall into.

Given what’s going on now, who in their right mind would buy in the secondary market when prices have only fallen 10% to 20%? The demand in the secondary market is completely shot, and it’s very clear we’re headed for at best a severe global recession and at worst a global depression.

My feeling is secondary prices have nowhere to go but down. Dealers have slowed buying/trading, conspicuous consumption is slowly going to go away the longer this goes, and the hype of these super-hot pieces will dwindle as attention turns to other matters of greater importance.

Unless we get lucky and there is a quick turnaround to all of this, I see the premiums on a vast majority of these hot APs, Patek, and Rolex watches going away. It’s simple economics. Secondary dealers will adjust prices gradually as pieces wash through the supply chain and they buy lower and sell lower.
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Old 23 March 2020, 03:47 PM   #8
Johndong888
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CHEY View Post
The declining prices on the 5712r (as well as other nautiluses and aquanauts) suggest that the decrease in demand far exceeds the decrease in supply and that it has not been a wash.

The reason is simple - not only do we see significantly reduced new demand, existing demand also drops significantly. The factory closure means no new supply, but existing supply is still here. So not a wash.
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Originally Posted by chiscott_29 View Post
Certainly not a wash......
I should clarify, I have to buy new so it's a wash for me. OP mentioned AD, which would means new regardless of what happens in the secondary market. As you said, no new supplies. I would love for the price to tank but it seems like it still got some time to go before then. I've been waiting for this piece for some time already. Alot of people have been waiting for a recession to get into all sorts of things
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Old 23 March 2020, 04:24 PM   #9
CHEY
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Originally Posted by Johndong888 View Post
I should clarify, I have to buy new so it's a wash for me. OP mentioned AD, which would means new regardless of what happens in the secondary market. As you said, no new supplies. I would love for the price to tank but it seems like it still got some time to go before then. I've been waiting for this piece for some time already. Alot of people have been waiting for a recession to get into all sorts of things
Makes sense.
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Old 24 March 2020, 03:48 AM   #10
aa909
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Originally Posted by chiscott_29 View Post
Certainly not a wash.

I think you have two camps. You have VIPs that are able to get the hot models. They are never, ever going to pay over retail. They’ll wait this out just like they would anyway and won’t influence the secondary market unless a specific watch falls through the retail price floor. VIPs are, I’m sure, savvy buyers and will pounce on watches they truly desire if they fall below retail.

Then there are the people in the secondary market. These collectors tend to be very price aware and are usually not VIPs for various reasons. I’d say they’re savvy too, at least the people that genuinely enjoy watches. This is certainly the camp I fall into.

Given what’s going on now, who in their right mind would buy in the secondary market when prices have only fallen 10% to 20%? The demand in the secondary market is completely shot, and it’s very clear we’re headed for at best a severe global recession and at worst a global depression.

My feeling is secondary prices have nowhere to go but down. Dealers have slowed buying/trading, conspicuous consumption is slowly going to go away the longer this goes, and the hype of these super-hot pieces will dwindle as attention turns to other matters of greater importance.

Unless we get lucky and there is a quick turnaround to all of this, I see the premiums on a vast majority of these hot APs, Patek, and Rolex watches going away. It’s simple economics. Secondary dealers will adjust prices gradually as pieces wash through the supply chain and they buy lower and sell lower.

Spot on. Price erosion in the secondary market has only just begun...
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