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25 March 2020, 05:56 AM | #31 |
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World leaders are now signalling that they are not willing to risk a total economic collapse as a price to pay for combating this virus so that will give hope to greys that things will not degenerate too far and will come back again, so the bigger ones will be able to hold out for quite a while, many of them have built up reserves for these leaner times. Some of the smaller dealers will sell out and/or probably go bust so there may be deals to be had, but the macro picture might not be that doom and gloom for the rest of this year, unless the virus mutates into something even more deadly.
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25 March 2020, 06:00 AM | #32 | |
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Going down this path, you'd be likely to take a 40%+ hit on the watches you bought to build a relationship, and there is absolutely no guarantee you'll get the watch you really want. I always recommend people do the math. If you just want 1 or 2 of the hotter models, build a relationship with a gray that you trust. It almost certainly will work out in your favor. |
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25 March 2020, 06:04 AM | #33 | |
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25 March 2020, 06:21 AM | #34 |
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25 March 2020, 06:29 AM | #35 |
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Not everyone is lucky to have a decent dealer. I've had a few that I've bought from and thought I had a relationship until the boom happened and then they told me to pound sand
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25 March 2020, 06:51 AM | #36 | |
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I do understand your point and I agree to a certain extent, but there are AD's (and in my experience that's specifically with Patek) where they have zero interest in your business if you're not buying something much less popular. Many people can see this is a total losing proposition and it drives them to the gray market. |
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25 March 2020, 07:00 AM | #37 | |
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If we never go back to shaking hands will anyone ever get to see your watch? Last edited by cascavel; 25 March 2020 at 07:01 AM.. Reason: Spelling, again. |
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25 March 2020, 07:25 AM | #38 |
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People forget that not only the grays are in trouble - Patek and AD need cash as well. They have been paying wages for people seating at home.
On top of this you have significantly less purchasing power. |
25 March 2020, 08:04 AM | #39 |
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Isn't the government paying for this? If I sit at home and don't have to work my employer won't have to cover anything.
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25 March 2020, 09:16 AM | #40 | |
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25 March 2020, 12:14 PM | #41 |
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Are any of you folks scientists? Epidemiologists? Go to the CDC or Hopkins site or even the bloody Straits Times in Singapore. This is going to be going on in waves and the world economies are going to be impacted. Don't think Easter 2019...more like 2020.
Mondelez will do fine. The luxury goods industry? -It will survive for sure overall, but like the Quartz crisis, it will not be the same as it was before. Most luxury goods purchases are made by people who want to present an image on success that goes beyond their real level of success. Until the world seems to be functioning, those purchases will diminish in number and magnitude. And I totally agree that this site is in bed with the grey sellers. "Trusted sellers"...lol. If that isn't proof already... I "trust" they have no loss of sleep with charging 100% over MSRP. And we've already gone down the road with what PP really thinks of it. As others have suggested, they need the grey marketplace to survive. And RF needs the greys. I got my 5167 in 2014 and it was a great price from an AD. The only reason it's no longer that way is because PP decided to keep supply levels flat, in spite of increasing demand. PP, everyone knows this is total BS on your part. Well, it will be interesting to revisit this thread EOY. Hopefully, I'll be able to still get Oreos. |
25 March 2020, 12:34 PM | #42 | |
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25 March 2020, 02:34 PM | #43 |
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25 March 2020, 03:36 PM | #44 | |
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Very similar, still not my cup of tea
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25 March 2020, 04:40 PM | #45 | |
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Calls, by government leaders, to re-open economies by some artificial date, like Easter, are unrealistic. |
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25 March 2020, 07:35 PM | #46 |
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5167 street price
Patek is closed...production stopped...so prices can only increase....
impossible hope differently.... |
25 March 2020, 07:36 PM | #47 | |
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I live in Switzerland, this is my 9th day of quarantine, and in a previous post I already explained what are my losses so far. Not on the market, directly on my salary. Also, when we are unleashed - can we travel abroad? I am a consultant, I travel transcontinental 10-12 times a year, can I work in the Middle East as of June - July, or I need to wait till September? What about US, when can I visit US, cause as we talk, I have no right to enter US? If you are a business that operates only in your market, I guess you can restart, I do not know how I will restart. Maybe Asia, it looks cleaner now, if they let me. Imagine going in a business meeting for 3 days, and at the Airport you are quarantine for 14 days in a Chinese Hospital. |
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25 March 2020, 08:26 PM | #48 | |
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i already got a call from my AD (closed, owner from home office) asking whether i want a 5168G blue. i said no thanks but i'd like this and that instead. i was promised another call today or tomorrow... |
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25 March 2020, 08:30 PM | #49 |
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25 March 2020, 08:59 PM | #50 | |
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Best George "Also remember that feet don't get fat and a watch will always speak volumes." Robert Johnston --------------------- *new*https://youtu.be/EljAF-uddhE *new * http://youtu.be/ZmpLoO1Q8eQ IG @passionata1 |
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25 March 2020, 09:19 PM | #51 | |
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25 March 2020, 09:28 PM | #52 | |
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25 March 2020, 10:46 PM | #53 |
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You say that AK, but there is no clear definition of what a 'key worker' is. The fact that there's been more advice for non cohabiting couples is absurd. There are dozens of construction workers around me still on the job. They're obviously terrified - when they head home they're all still wearing their respirator masks, all of them heading like a river to the tubes and buses. It's wholly irresponsible to expect them to go to work, and irresponsible for their bosses (who would anyway get relief from the government were they to halt activity) to compel them to travel and work. Add in the self-employed who the government haven't economically protected, and you have vast swathes of the populace who still have no choice but to fill the carriages to go to work.
The supermarket network is collapsing too. Ocado... just don't, and every other delivery service is borderline failing (four hours in a digital queue only to be kicked off before discovering there are no delivery slots till May). That makes people queue in tight shops for provisions which only risks them, and other key workers. This situation is getting worse, not better. There was an excellent article in Haaretz a few days ago about how we safely remove the lockdown, and it all boiled down to long-term modelling (months in advance), comprehensive testing and tracking, and a tightening and loosening of restrictions based on the capacity of the health service. We in the UK are nowhere near the ability to do that, and so I fear it is right to be deeply concerned. I have family in Israel, France, Argentina, Japan (and unfortunately the USA), and the lockdown in the UK just isn't tight enough. (Back on topic, if anyone in the UK gets a call for a 5711/2 and doesn't wish to take up the offer, I'd be more than grateful if they'd send the AD my way!) |
25 March 2020, 10:51 PM | #54 | |
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That's exactly the issue - it isn't just about single individuals any more, it's about networks and connections. Stay safe everyone. Stay at home. |
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25 March 2020, 11:17 PM | #55 | |
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I would not blame them, if the government needs to pay me half the salary, they can feed 5-6 workers with this amount of money on 100%. It is a complicated issue, lets wait and see. My company has applied, but informed us, that if we are rejected - we will go for a voluntary salary cut and the highest earnest will cut more. The idea is for 3 months, to avoid firings. It is a very weird fucking thing, so different than 2009. We all are eager to work and to travel, and we know, that if we manage to absorb this cost, we will hit the ground running - like a pack of dogs waiting to be unleashed. On the other hand, if we are forbidden to fly because Switzerland is so massively infected, one of the highest per capita, our business is international. I can't believe that a bat shat on a snake, and some idiot ate it, and we are all in this shit right now. |
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25 March 2020, 11:19 PM | #56 | |
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Even among young people, it is a serious disease, not that deadly, but very serious. It is like a massive Pnemonia, I do not know, not a doctor, just a very frustrated guy right now, and we have been locked for 10 days only. |
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25 March 2020, 11:31 PM | #57 | |
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Best George "Also remember that feet don't get fat and a watch will always speak volumes." Robert Johnston --------------------- *new*https://youtu.be/EljAF-uddhE *new * http://youtu.be/ZmpLoO1Q8eQ IG @passionata1 |
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25 March 2020, 11:38 PM | #58 | |
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Anyway, stay safe, and I hope you and yours are healthy, and those you come into contact with too... |
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25 March 2020, 11:39 PM | #59 | |
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Best George "Also remember that feet don't get fat and a watch will always speak volumes." Robert Johnston --------------------- *new*https://youtu.be/EljAF-uddhE *new * http://youtu.be/ZmpLoO1Q8eQ IG @passionata1 |
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25 March 2020, 11:40 PM | #60 | |
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