Soft watch market at the moment?

[RationalPragmatist]

I thought it amusing that Hodinkee was touting Frederique Constant as having 'approachable prices'. Even with lower price points, the grey market discounting on that brand is up to 70% off; racing to the bottom.

[Star Ferry]

Market is softening. I have met plenty of mainland Chinese businessmen - many are factory and real estate owners with minimal education (i.e. the exact kind of guys who gobble up luxury watches)

My father-in-law owns a mine and several factories in the mainland. He notes that many of his managers and partners, who have now been wealthy for decades, have begun to eschew watches, jewels and gold in favor of real estate investments. He has a funny story of a business partner who walked into a Shanghai watch shop, stated that he was a VIP customer, and demanded the most expensive watch in the store. That same individual no longer buys watches and has even started checking prices at restaurants (he used to make a dramatic display of never looking at menu prices)

At the same time, every year a new crop of men becomes wealthy and seeks to display its wealth, so the market isn't dead. But many existing customers are becoming more sophisticated and buying more selectively. At least, that's the word I've heard on the street

[lapince]

Originally Posted by KarlS

Good. I need / want / crave a Dato perpetual

Great choice, 130.000 euros retail, can be had new or mint with incredible discounts, around 70 mint and 90 new, when I Asked wempe for a discount they said nope as that model "doesn't loose any money and in fact gains value", yeah right, 60k off retail for a new one means buying it for retail is truly a super investment, salespeople!!!!!!

Originally Posted by el1125

I'm familiar with Patek and in their line the 5960 in all configurations has plummeted quite a bit. For a watch with a $90K approx MSRP that is down below $60 nowadays seems quite lousy...

Yes the grey dial took a huge beating, blue and black much less but still lost a little

Originally Posted by uri40

Ok, but even the classic RO and ROO diver?

If you buy very well no, the ceramic diver was retail 23.500 euros, between discount and tax refund I paid in all 18k and could get 19 out of it, just get the right models at the best price, I have 2 high end watches on order I am getting a very good discount between the shop and tax refunding

Originally Posted by Star Ferry

Market is softening. I have met plenty of mainland Chinese businessmen - many are factory and real estate owners with minimal education (i.e. the exact kind of guys who gobble up luxury watches)

My father-in-law owns a mine and several factories in the mainland. He notes that many of his managers and partners, who have now been wealthy for decades, have begun to eschew watches, jewels and gold in favor of real estate investments. He has a funny story of a business partner who walked into a Shanghai watch shop, stated that he was a VIP customer, and demanded the most expensive watch in the store. That same individual no longer buys watches and has even started checking prices at restaurants (he used to make a dramatic display of never looking at menu prices)

At the same time, every year a new crop of men becomes wealthy and seeks to display its wealth, so the market isn't dead. But many existing customers are becoming more sophisticated and buying more selectively. At least, that's the word I've heard on the street

I heard that the government in China has for some time now publicly criticized wealthy people buying ultra luxury goods, cars, designer bags and especially high end watches and guys who were wearing 400-800k watches are now wearing much cheaper ones, doesn't help the industry of course, about brands like RM doing strong again on some models, many models when phrchased pre owned still take some kind of beating, the only ones who more or less don't loose too much is Rolex steel models xxf and certain Pateks, in any case buy right is for me the capital rule

[Fleetlord]

Watch market is very soft and it is concerning.

There are like (12) watches (vintage and modern) that the basic pre-owned watch market really cares about at the moment:

Rolex

5513
5512
1680
14060
16610
16610LV
Seadweller
SS Daytona
Hulk
BLNR
DEEP BLUE DSD
Pepsi / Coke / Black GMT

Now there are some exceptions in the super high end for important Pateks and other elite brand scarcities, but these are not day to day, bread and butter market pieces.

The rest of the modern market is VERY MEH and SOFT....almost COLD and the moment.

Patek and IWC (especially) really took a beating with their price decreases.

AP is starting to fade....too many limited editions and celebrity nonsense diluting brand.

Breitling are lost puppies...other than a Navitimer there isn't a Breitling I would consider as desirable.

Panerai.....SOS...big trouble

Omega...Speedy still desirable...but rest of line?

Hublot? The star has burned out..

Tag...always popular on the low end and their smart watch is selling. They are recognizing the price erosion in the market and adjusting to it..first brand to really begin to adapt to the shift in the market...

Honestly, the prices for modern pieces are way too high over the last 10yrs and the market is correcting. It will be very interesting to see pricing adjustments from brands going forward.

It will also be interesting to see the very future of some lesser brands (but still pricey) in the next few years. Graham comes to mind....Expensive watches that nobody buys. How can they stay afloat?

[GB-man]

I'm interested to see how the expanding but niche brands fare, i.e. Journe, Mille etc

[texex91]

Originally Posted by GB-man

I'm interested to see how the expanding but niche brands fare, i.e. Journe, Mille etc

Mille will be just fine. Their target market has excess income to spend no matter the economy (this isn't a primary watch like other brands)...maybe they buy one instead of two. Yes, will all brands see some slowing--probably. I can tell you the hot pieces are hotter than ever in Mille, if you are really shopping them (vs being a backseat buyer). They have their dogs like any other brand, so there is always the exception.

Who knows...BUT, what I DO know is I buy what I like and let the rest worry over things they don't control.

Have much bigger things to worry about than 'soft markets' and trying to read a crystal ball in a hobby item like watches.

IF one is really that worried, maybe they shouldn't buy them in the first place.

[martinr]

The gloom and doom scenario like Fleetlord puts out there isn't the case. The market may be a little slow now and may be for a while but slow and dead aren't the same thing. Hublot and Panerai are doing fine and AP is as hot as ever. The notion that you could pay retail or close to it for any watch and flip it in a year or so and get your money back never made sense to me. Having that expectation is unrealistic and if your enjoyment of this hobby is based on the market maybe get a new hobby.

[themaninblack]

Originally Posted by texex91

Mille will be just fine. Their target market has excess income to spend no matter the economy (this isn't a primary watch like other brands)...maybe they buy one instead of two. Yes, will all brands see some slowing--probably. I can tell you the hot pieces are hotter than ever in Mille, if you are really shopping them (vs being a backseat buyer). They have their dogs like any other brand, so there is always the exception.

Who knows...BUT, what I DO know is I buy what I like and let the rest worry over things they don't control.

Have much bigger things to worry about than 'soft markets' and trying to read a crystal ball in a hobby item like watches.

IF one is really that worried, maybe they shouldn't buy them in the first place.

Those who have significant shareholding in Richemont or LVMH might be interested in the topic for starters.

[texex91]

Originally Posted by themaninblack

Those who have significant shareholding in Richemont or LVMH might be interested in the topic for starters.

Can't disagree with that...I was replying to someone asking about Mille. Thanks

[lapince]

In any case I don't believe one second that we will see a crisis like the quartz crisis because of smart watches or something else, the market can't always be gaining, like any market you have some stong and soft monents, I am not really preoccupied, just get models you really like, at the best possible price, and forget about thinking making money in this, except if you are an AD or a reputed grey dealer like Davidsw or others it's better not to try to make money from this, if I recall the 9 watches I got and flipped in the last 3 years, Retail value of around 150k, I think I must be at around 6k deficit, though I sold 3 with a little benefit, 6 were sold for a slight deficit, which is not bad as I know members here who lost huge amounts of money, but I really always try to get the best deal possible, and to say the truth I didn't think I would sell any of those watches when I got them, but my tastes changed and I realised I preferred having 2-3 that I really love than 10'that I like, at the moment have 1 and 2 on order, one should be here this summer the other in October, I hope this time I will get it right taste wise and will be good for 10 years or so, so if the market is soft butnI have the pieces I love and want to keep, who cares

[themaninblack]

Originally Posted by texex91

Can't disagree with that...I was replying to someone asking about Mille. Thanks

Agree. Niche brands, whether small or large, high or lower priced will generally be the authors of their own story.

[Vipes]

Originally Posted by martinr

The gloom and doom scenario like Fleetlord puts out there isn't the case. The market may be a little slow now and may be for a while but slow and dead aren't the same thing. Hublot and Panerai are doing fine and AP is as hot as ever. The notion that you could pay retail or close to it for any watch and flip it in a year or so and get your money back never made sense to me. Having that expectation is unrealistic and if your enjoyment of this hobby is based on the market maybe get a new hobby.

I agree with this.

[chemistman]

I've been looking around for a pam for a while and just recently saw how much the pam price has dropped in the sales section! Doesn't help with Richmont pumping out unlimited limited editions! Just glad I put my money in Rolex and not pam in the past few years! Having said that I'm hoping to pick up a journe when a good piece comes up !

[KarlS]

I have a strong feeling that RM will find a home for their 300 units a year and Journe should sell 1000....but when a watch becomes a mere commodity then you are in trouble

[ghotihead2001]

call me when the high end vintage rolex dealers start dropping their prices

[texex91]

Originally Posted by KarlS

I have a strong feeling that RM will find a home for their 300 units a year and Journe should sell 1000....but when a watch becomes a mere commodity then you are in trouble

RM makes 2200 just FYI and yes they sell everyone.

Albeit very different market than Patek who makes 50k+ annually, brands at the upper price point will ultimately be fine. Again, that consumer has the discretionary funds--maybe not as much, but there will still be buyers.

I'll say it again, buy what you like and enjoy. If one is too worried about prices or market conditions, it tells me they probably shouldn't be in the brand to begin with OR they overpaid initially.

[belligero]

The BS companies will definitely feel some hurt from this market, but companies with good design and manufacturing integrity should do fine in the long run.

It's probably good for the industry's credibility to weed out some of the chancers, anyway.

By the way, prices in Europe seem rather steady. The strengthing US dollar vs. other currencies is a big factor in why the American market seems soft, as watches from other markets are coming in at lower prices.

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by texex91

Mille will be just fine. Their target market has excess income to spend no matter the economy (this isn't a primary watch like other brands)...maybe they buy one instead of two. Yes, will all brands see some slowing--probably. I can tell you the hot pieces are hotter than ever in Mille, if you are really shopping them (vs being a backseat buyer). They have their dogs like any other brand, so there is always the exception.

Who knows...BUT, what I DO know is I buy what I like and let the rest worry over things they don't control.

Have much bigger things to worry about than 'soft markets' and trying to read a crystal ball in a hobby item like watches.

IF one is really that worried, maybe they shouldn't buy them in the first place.

I generally agree I don't think they will have solvency issues or anything but if your average buyer goes from buying 2 to buying 1 watch that's a hurdle.

Only reason I named mille and Journe was because they seem to have been expanding, journe through its boutique network and Mille through marketing. Also of course not being owned by richemont etc

[Jcy90]

Judging from the for sale section over here in TRF. Market shows no signs of being soft.

[ansharma]

Originally Posted by Jcy90

Judging from the for sale section over here in TRF. Market shows no signs of being soft.

Sellers can ask whatever they want for their inventory but the real question is what are they finally selling for and if they are selling at all?

[malnik]

Originally Posted by Jcy90

Judging from the for sale section over here in TRF. Market shows no signs of being soft.

How are you judging for sale section? what are your indicators a soft market? When I see a Explorer I 39 full set selling at low $4k, I think it's great value. Is that a sign for soft market?

[KarlS]

I have to admit that I am finding this "soft" market very frustrating....I was outbid on 3 lots at Christies this week...all going for very close to new prices!!

[dera]

If this is soft market, I'm happy with that. In this current "flipping round", I've 40x my initial investment in 1,5 years.

[el1125]

Originally Posted by KarlS

I have to admit that I am finding this "soft" market very frustrating....I was outbid on 3 lots at Christies this week...all going for very close to new prices!!

Some Vintage is hotter than ever. I think the current soft the OP was mentioning is related to modern.

[KarlS]

Originally Posted by el1125

Some Vintage is hotter than ever. I think the current soft the OP was mentioning is related to modern.

I was bidding on 5170 and 5140...neither vintage but yes I understand Rolex vintage and some PP have broken records and I think there are a lot more FS adverts in TRF than there used to be

[p_mcgee]

I have noticed that the number of watches for sale on the watch forums I follow (TRF, WUS, TZ) have declined sharply as a result of the forums tightening up requirements for posting ads.

[mickyd329]

Originally Posted by ansharma

Sellers can ask whatever they want for their inventory but the real question is what are they finally selling for and if they are selling at all?

Good point. Lots of pieces in the for sale section sitting around for extended periods of time. What they actually sell for if they do is something to be seen.

[KarlS]

Richmont just released financials lower year on year. However didn't break down by brand.

[benlee]

Over here in Asia, prices are very soft as well. Trade in price to dealers reach new lows as well dealers are not sure if they can move inventory so the asking price is very low. Great deals to be had if one is looking to buy but not sell.

[lapince]

Originally Posted by dera

If this is soft market, I'm happy with that. In this current "flipping round", I've 40x my initial investment in 1,5 years.

WHAT!!! Come one, 40 times in 1,5 year is impossible, really, not way anyone could do that, if you say plus 40% is one thing, but times 40 in watches, in 1,5 years is just a joke, come on be serious

Originally Posted by el1125

Some Vintage is hotter than ever. I think the current soft the OP was mentioning is related to modern.

Most surely, even Patek which is one of the brands doing the best, take huge hits on many models, the only ones, IMHO, which are at Rolex level resale, or better, are the Nautilus line and 5167, and very limited ones 5131 for example, or LE's, 5575 for example, but many loose big time...