A lot of BLRO’s?

[AJMarcus]

Originally Posted by iTreelex

It's nice to see that a watch that was previously unattainable is now flooding the market. These aren't supposed to be exclusive.

I wouldn’t say flooding the market. When it floods the market that’s when you’ll see the gray prices below MSRP:

[Spencer]

I too was one of the lucky ones to get a BLRO in the past week. I'd assume Rolex was sitting on quite a few and when they made shipments to their AD's before the factory closures, they sent out some more desirable pieces to at least boost some AD's sales.

[Dr H A]

Yeah I was waiting for white Daytona from my AD ( he gave me black Daytona August last year )
He called me and said haven’t gotten a Daytona for me yet but he could offer BLRO in the meantime
So I took it ......
I was not on list for BLRO

[zion_rasta]

People may need to buy ventilators...

[SlideRacker]

Now is the time to load up on as many hot SS pieces as you can get your hands on if you can swing it financially. Make no mistake about it, value investing is tough, very tough. Those who bought real estate back in 2010 are looking like geniuses now. Back then everyone was scared to death of real estate. It’s the nature of economic cycles.

[Rado63]

For larger AD's in larger markets, it would make no sense to just start selling "hot SS pieces" just to get some cash flow. The AD would still have inventory of TT, DJ, and PM to sell as well, and fewer of the "hot SS pieces" in inventory. My .02 is that If the AD has a large client base then they would continue to bundle pieces. Viewed in a different way, if the AD has a limited supply of "hot SS pieces" the only way to sell the harder to sell pieces is to bundle, especially now. This of course would vary by market location.

[Tavli3]

Originally Posted by herefortheattachment

Rolex absolutely cares about the sales of their vintage prices at auction, as well, for the same reason. A key factor contributing to the reputation and popularity of the modern Daytona is undoubtedly the jaw-dropping prices of vintage Rolex chronographs at auction houses, making a major impact to the model’s exclusive status and appeal. It allows Rolex to continue charging premium prices for the model and cements the brand’s elite status. Exorbitant gray market prices are free marketing for Rolex and instrumental in increasing the brand’s cache.

I think you hit the nail on the head with this paragraph. Couldn't agree more.
As far as ADs holding stock in their safes. I would think the smart ones precrisis were saving a core group of hot pieces in the safe for the right time/right sale. Just as every smart restaurant owner of a popular restaurant holds back certain tables for the walk in VIP or VVIP. I think ADs normally sell every watch as fast as they can outside of their strategic reserve lets say.

But these are not normal times. People are not coming into the store or calling on the phone to buy 80K diamonds or PM Rolexes. I think as the reality sinks in that this is not going to be over in a matter of weeks but rather months(ie: Rolex extending shutdown) their thinking has to be it's better to sell as much as I can now and worry about the strategic stash when the dust settles. Too much risk and uncertainty for ADs to try to be too smart. They could very easily outsmart themselves! Play it safe get whatever you can sold at full MSRP and live to fight another day.

So agree with Patton to a point that it makes no sense for ADs to keep watches in the safe but I do believe that pre virus they did carry a strategic reserve to some degree. Probably a lot less than most think. I would say one watch per model maybe two depending on the rate of replacement in their monthly allocation.

[ewdi]

Yes, a flood of BLRO....

[Gaijin]

Originally Posted by WatchNutcase

The Corona virus?

[Chester01]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Let me ask you a question Chester. Actually this question is for anyone who wants to answer it. Since you seem to believe ADs stash the hard to get Rolex sports models or any hard to get model for that matter in their safes instead of selling them right away just how long do you think said AD would hold back one of these hot items? A week? A month? I think you can agree that it’s realistic that let’s say back this past November a big AD could receive in one week a White Daytona, BLNR, BLRO, Hulk and let’s say a no date sub all at the same time. Do you think that AD is just going to hold onto these things? I don’t. I know for a fact my ADs don’t but that’s only a few in Florida. I can see them holding on to one or two of them for a few days to try to bundle it with a PM piece but after that its hit the phone and call all the people on the list time. I’m just interested to hear what you safe conspiracy theorist (I mean that in a fun way) feel is the average time these AD’s withhold the things before finally getting their money back with profit. Thanks man.

So how do you think the gray market gets their watches? They hold onto the desirable watches and wait for the gray market dealers or people with deep pockets to come along so they can bundle the desirable models with jewelry and/or and less desirable Rolex models. This is common knowledge. When my brother got his batman it was in the safe, when I got my Daytona it was in the safe. I have not seen desirable models on display since prior to like 2010 and was common in the 1980’s and 1990’s from what I can remember. Because there is a long waiting list, it means AD’s don’t have to wait long to bundle these pieces. My hypothesis is that gray market is not buying now, forcing AD’s to put more of these in the hands of people, resulting in the recent string of arrivals we have seen here in the forum despite these lock downs. Gray’s are not as liquid so they will not be stocking up, and AD’s more likely to sell what they have to pay the bills.


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[Patton250]

Originally Posted by Chester01

So how do you think the gray market gets their watches? They hold onto the desirable watches and wait for the gray market dealers or people with deep pockets to come along so they can bundle the desirable models with jewelry and/or and less desirable Rolex models. This is common knowledge. When my brother got his batman it was in the safe, when I got my Daytona it was in the safe. I have not seen desirable models on display since prior to like 2010 and was common in the 1980’s and 1990’s from what I can remember. Because there is a long waiting list, it means AD’s don’t have to wait long to bundle these pieces. My hypothesis is that gray market is not buying now, forcing AD’s to put more of these in the hands of people, resulting in the recent string of arrivals we have seen here in the forum despite these lock downs. Gray’s are not as liquid so they will not be stocking up, and AD’s more likely to sell what they have to pay the bills.


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Hey Chester. Good morning. Thanks for getting back to me my friend.

I understand the practice you are talking about as far as bundling but I thought that was primarily European and Asian ADs? As I’ve said before I’m close enough with several ADs here in Florida and none of them do that for sure. I guarantee it. I can’t speak for other ADs all around the US but I would think they would be taking an awfully big chance of losing their Rolex dealership if they did that. I don’t know. I appreciate your input though.

One thing don’t you think the bundling would have work better 3 to 5 years ago when the economy was bad and demand was nowhere near as high as it has been this last three or four years? Back then the A.D. would sit on a Batman or Hulk for months at certain locations. Not Orlando or New York City but most definitely smaller areas. I would think in those cases they would be more apt to bundle to get rid of some of the date justs and other less sought after pieces. What are your thoughts on that?

[Tan]

I think it's about time with the BLRO, good to see this.

[HopWatch]

Originally Posted by Spencer

I too was one of the lucky ones to get a BLRO in the past week. I'd assume Rolex was sitting on quite a few and when they made shipments to their AD's before the factory closures, they sent out some more desirable pieces to at least boost some AD's sales.

This is spot on


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[Chester01]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Hey Chester. Good morning. Thanks for getting back to me my friend.

I understand the practice you are talking about as far as bundling but I thought that was primarily European and Asian ADs? As I’ve said before I’m close enough with several ADs here in Florida and none of them do that for sure. I guarantee it. I can’t speak for other ADs all around the US but I would think they would be taking an awfully big chance of losing their Rolex dealership if they did that. I don’t know. I appreciate your input though.

One thing don’t you think the bundling would have work better 3 to 5 years ago when the economy was bad and demand was nowhere near as high as it has been this last three or four years? Back then the A.D. would sit on a Batman or Hulk for months at certain locations. Not Orlando or New York City but most definitely smaller areas. I would think in those cases they would be more apt to bundle to get rid of some of the date justs and other less sought after pieces. What are your thoughts on that?

Good morning to you as well! That’s an interesting thought. I think the bundling has actually increased despite the economy as demand for jewelry and diamonds have declined a good deal over the years, making watches and in particular Rolex watches a ever increasing portion of their profits. At least up here in NJ/PA the desirable models have been bundled for a long time. I got my Daytona (in 2014) after many purchases at my AD and my brother got his blnr in 2017 after many purchases, though not bundled like a 1 time deal. But the desirable watches went to clients with a history. One AD in Florida has a branch well actually their flagship in NJ and I can tell you they are not first come first serve as I have been in their about every month since 2016 and they have not said well, we have a ss Daytona for you. They do have them, but in the area where this AD is located are going to clients spending 100k +.

But bundling is how the gray market works, and let’s face it there are no shortages of any models (Rolex, PP, or AP) for that matter. And the grays have only one source for their Rolex it’s the AD. So while I can’t say all, I would say given the vast numbers of watches in the gray market it’s many AD’s playing that game.

Also, let me address one other point. Yes the economy has been “good” for the folks here in the forum, but really flat to poor for the vast majority of folks across the world. But as Rolex prices have gone up, they have become less accessible to most but the top 1-5%. So Ad’s need repeat clients now more than ever as the number of clients who 20 years ago may have been able to swing a Rolex for their son/daughter for graduation are no longer able to do that considering what college tuition costs. So the number of one off buyers has likely declined, making the bundle and repeat clients a larger and larger piece of making AD’s successful. The reality is too, is there is just not enough wealthy people buying Rolex watches for AD’s not to play these games. The reality is if an AD was moving enough stock by themselves, the gray market would not exist.

Not sure this directly addresses your questions but they are other thoughts that have occurred to me.


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[Dusko.Popov]

Originally Posted by Mystro

Until you see these SS watches in the AD display cases like 5 years ago, the amount listed in online stores won’t change anything other than how high a premium you pay.
Buying at msrp without a bundle deal by these AD’s will have to stop before the grey market will settle down like it was before when we could buy under msrp by our trusted sellers.
In the history of Rolex, never has Pandora been left out of the box to such levels of supply and demand . No one really knows what the new normal will be. IF you can walk into any AD and buy a watch at msrp without the games, then we will be where we were 5 years ago.

Sooner or later the market has to saturate unless Rolex doesn’t like that idea and modifies their output. Rolex is the puppet master and could care less what premium the secondary market sells their watches at. Rolex knows and controls everything when it comes to image and desirability with their watches. Roles is really the unknown “X factor” that doesn’t follow any rules. This is the dichotomy of Rolex ownership. Many love the watches but hate the company.

It is normal to first see new forum members think that Rolex cares about them actually getting a watch at msrp. Rolex is a control freaking monster that wants to own every aspect of their watches pre and post sales. The customer is just a annoying necessary evil to keep the trust running. The sooner you understand this, the sooner you will understand Rolex isn’t like other watch brands. Even their own dealer network hates Rolex and finds them horrible to deal with.
This kind of sadistic control only fuels the affluent to want them more. Ferrari is another master at this way of customer manipulation.

Agree. But with one small caveat.

I’m not sure that we don’t know what Rolex’ play is here. After the new ceo landed 7 years or so ago, I feel like there was a concerted effort towards stronger luxury brand image consciousness.

This story of luxury image consciousness was told through a near rabid focus on eliminating discounts in the ad and grey marketplace.

Not sure if anyone remembers this but about 5 years ago, Rolex was prop calling ads to see if discounts were being discussed over the phone. I remember calling an ad circa 2014 asking about a discount and they said “please come in and see the collection.” Once there I was able to score 15% off and also told that Rolex is not ok with them discussing discounts. It’s not talked about a lot here and most new buyers missed that era that because it was a fleeting moment in time but it happened.

Discounts are just bad for image.

Anyway, I don’t think there is a middle ground. If you don’t under serve interest you’ll have too much inventory. Too much means discounting.

Don’t think Rolex goes back to that and in my opinion that’s the hand they play.

[ArtNouveau]

So much speculation with no real proof. My dealer sells lots of watches (have heard from more than one source that they’re the 3rd highest volume AD in the US). They have lots of customers and zero need to “play games” or sell “out the back door” to move their inventory. RolexUSA knows what they send them and also knows when the pieces are sold. If certain pieces were hoarded they wouldn’t get anymore until they sold them.
The day my Daytona came in there were two other people in the store when I arrived also picking up their waitlist pieces as well as a couple of other high value walk in deals going.
I think we at TRF are such a small sample of the overall Rolex market that the trends here don’t mean much in the big picture.

[RaceDoc11]

I agree and sadly this will get worse before it gets better.

Originally Posted by Chester01

Well, AD's have to pay their bills and there is no wait list for jewelry. So while the lights are off, they can open the safe and start moving through their safe and stop playing games.

[cdubg21]

I think there is also bundling at the consumer level here. Someone goes in to buy a $15k engagement ring and gets offered a BLRO. They take the BLRO, flip it, and knock $5k off their net cost of the ring. Problem is, as gray market prices soften, so do offers to flippers, and this deflates the margins for this type of consumer bundling. Then all of a sudden it’s more trouble than its worth for to flip the BLRO.

If there is little or no profit available for flippers, and you eliminate that group of buyers from the demand pool of AD’s I would have to assume we see a lot more people passing on “hot” references making them available for those buying to enjoy.

Finally the stock market presents a compelling investment opportunity that didn’t exist 2-3 months ago. I am reallocating all of my watch funds to buy stock and can’t imagine I am the only one

[HTXdev14]

Originally Posted by cdubg21

I think there is also bundling at the consumer level here. Someone goes in to buy a $15k engagement ring and gets offered a BLRO. They take the BLRO, flip it, and knock $5k off their net cost of the ring. Problem is, as gray market prices soften, so do offers to flippers, and this deflates the margins for this type of consumer bundling. Then all of a sudden it’s more trouble than its worth for to flip the BLRO.

If there is little or no profit available for flippers, and you eliminate that group of buyers from the demand pool of AD’s I would have to assume we see a lot more people passing on “hot” references making them available for those buying to enjoy.

Finally the stock market presents a compelling investment opportunity that didn’t exist 2-3 months ago. I am reallocating all of my watch funds to buy stock and can’t imagine I am the only one

Same. I think you’d be doing yourself an injustice if you didn’t take advantage of this opportunity. Both in stocks and the BLRO in my opinion