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Old 18 February 2020, 01:33 AM   #1
The Argonaut
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Nostradamus for 2020

Hi TRF,

How do you see the SS bubble playing out in 2020? I'm not asking about any specific watches, but simply for opinions--which is all they are unless you have a crystal ball--on how the Rolex, PP, AP SS bubble will change this year, if at all.

As I'm asking the question, I'll kick off. I think the bubble will deflate this year for two reasons. At the macro level, Coronavirus will likely be with us for a significant part of this year and will clearly impact sales, and may bring a measure of cold water to an overheated market. If you're worried about your life and health and that of your friends and family, watches are simply unimportant. Also, Coronavirus could continue its economic impact on Q2 and even Q3.

At the micro level, I think prices have peaked and the current current grey situation is becoming unsustainable (if it isn't already). I think there are still some who will pay the grey price for the social cache of the instant instagram buzz. However, it seems to me that more and more people are simply not prepared to pay the grey price, and are either waiting until the bubble deflates and ADs start getting the watches again or are moving to other brands. Either way, this will lower the pressure around "hot" pieces, which will start to lose some of their perceived "hotness."

I follow various grey dealer inventories and it seems the Nauts/Aquas/Daytonas/Skydwellers/15202s, etc., simply aren't moving fast at all. There are lots around, and more are coming to market. If greys were selling them hand over fist, we'd see larger volume turnover. We're not seeing that; what we're seeing is 1s and 2s selling but lots still available. I don't see a large volume of buyers willing to pay the grey prices to keep the bubble where it is.

I think grey prices will drop between 10-20% on many SS pieces this year, and none will retain the current price as of today. I think Daytona black dials will drop to $18-19k; white dial to $20-$22k; blue dial skydwellers to $19-21k; 5167s will go sub $30k, and likely hover in the $26-29k mark; 5164s to $45-48k, etc. I wont guess on the Nauts as I think these watches live in a different acquisition bracket and have a status outside of the watches listed above. However, I can see some Nauts coming down, such as those on straps.

I was chatting to a good mate yesterday about all this, and both of us were speculating as to what we thought would happen this year. I don't think Baselworld will see the announcement of lots of new, fantastic "hot" pieces. It didn't last year, and I think a period of consolidation is coming from the brands (which is also their way of trying to let out some of the air from the bubble. It maybe good advertising for Rolex to be king of the hill as regards current overheated demand, but it isn't good for them long term when lots of buyers move to other brands and discover the joys found therein.).

Thoughts?

Best,
TA
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Old 18 February 2020, 02:29 AM   #2
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If the coronavirus keeps the mainlanders in place then you shall see a drop. If sentiment to go back to Hong Kong (no longer any protests) to spend all their cash then you'll see an increase.

Only people you need to watch out for are the Chinese. They're the ones pushing or dropping the prices. No one else.

Greys are still moving lots of stock. Not to the amount where they fry prices like before, but trades are still going from hand to hand. Believe me :-) They're not suffering or won't be now that they've adjusted to the current situation.
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Old 18 February 2020, 02:31 AM   #3
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I think either the bubble will burst or it won't.
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Old 18 February 2020, 02:52 AM   #4
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I expect more of the same. You will not feel an uptick of hot deliveries at your local AD, plenty of waiting still

Patek can barely hack a seconds hand, you think they have just in time shipping containers, no way
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Old 18 February 2020, 02:56 AM   #5
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Maybe the reason with coronavirus it’s sustainable and maybe 10-20% it’s realistic.
Nautilus I agree it’s on his own league and I believe we won’t see “bubble” burns soon..... because of his exclusivities.
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Old 18 February 2020, 03:02 AM   #6
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My personal opinion is pretty in-line with the OP. However, I do think watches are moving on the secondary market, I just don't think they're moving at prices you see on C24 for the hottest models. And to me, that's somewhat part of the problem as it plants a seed to flippers/sellers what they want for their watch, and that inflated expectation has to flow through the system.

Secondary dealers do not get much out of this bubble, and I think many of them would love to see it end. At least purely on the financial side. Dealers have to tie up more capital to keep the same profit margin, and I don't know any business where that's a good thing.

So, until the people they are buying from reset their expectations, we're going to see prices likely steady where they are, and just maybe trickle down very slowly as inventory stalls. The trickle could become something more as things develop in China and HK as those are the wild cards.
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Old 18 February 2020, 03:13 AM   #7
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Overall - I think that we’ll see fundamentally more of the same.

I think this year we will see Submariners, GMTs, 15500s, and Aquanauts become more readily available (to a degree) - as sort of the cornerstone references (but a degree that it will not significantly devalue them on the secondary market) - and I think Nautilus, Daytonas etc - are going to become more elusive and harder to get. Why? Market position and exclusivity. We already know that Thierry Stern has openly said that on the Nautilus — and while Rolex is (and is always) quiet — we know there will always be the unicorn(s). Just how it is.

I think the market suffocation over the last couple of years allowed manufacturers to weed out poor performing (or ADs with bad habits). As we have seen a shift there for sure.

These manufacturers are businesses - and very smart businesses that value brand awareness, exclusivity and desire - overall. Why would they want that to change?

I would submit that the forums (and WIS community) truthfully represent an insignificant cross-section of the overall demand.

Just my .02


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Old 18 February 2020, 03:30 AM   #8
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Originally Posted by locutus49 View Post
I think either the bubble will burst or it won't.
I tend to agree with this
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Old 18 February 2020, 03:40 AM   #9
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Think the new Omega Constellation lineup, the Odysseus, and possibly a revamped IWC Engineiur (if they're smart enough to respect the Genta design in 2021) will alleviate the pressure?

A lot of other options out there now... Bulgari Octofinissimo in SS 100m WR, etc. And some of these watches are stunning and available starting 2020!

S
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Old 18 February 2020, 05:28 AM   #10
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My predictions:

1. There will be a slow migration away from smartwatches back into mechanicals post-AWWDC as the younger generation begins to question the efficacy of annually upgrading their watches for diminishing levels of functionality and utility. The Apple iWatch is currently sitting on its Gen 5 iteration and it's yet to be determined if people want to upgrade both their phone and their watch on an annual basis. The big question is, will people continue to stay on the Apple treadmill and follow them into the Gen 6, Gen7, Gen100 implementations of the iWatch? If the answer is no, this migration away from the smartwatch may cascade up the food chain as new buyers discover and settle into their respective socio-economic niches.

2. There will be across the board price increases as the Euro and European economies continue to weaken against the dollar and strengthen against the yuan. The overall strength of the dollar coupled with a general post-Brexit weakening of the euro will dis-incent manufacturers from shifting inventory flow away from a contracting Chinese economy into an expanding and receptive US economy due to favorable offsetting exchange rate factors. Instead, expect watch companies to maintain the status quo.

3. Also applying pressure against lower prices will be the effect the Coronavirus has on Chinese austenitic stainless steel production. IIRC, China produces over 50% of the world's stainless steel. US manufactures could step in but the bi-partisan focus in 2020 per the recent State of the Union address will be on infrastructure, so I see most of American-made steel going there. The regional hyper-environmental attitudes will hamper European steel production and rule them out as a secondary source.

4. Independent brands will continue to question the efficacy of SIHH and Baselworld as the deep pockets at Richemont and LVMH continue to assert their conglomerate industry-shaping power. The watch world will be closely monitoring the success of Audemars Piguet and Richard Mille as they embark on a journey to market and sell directly to the customer drastically altering the retail dynamic. If the independent route succeeds then this could lead more independents toward moving to this B2C model, effectively eliminating the uncertainty and brand destabilization brought on by the adverse behaviors of the middleman. If this happens, then this could result in under-feeding the grey market causing grey market prices to rise.
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Old 18 February 2020, 06:14 AM   #11
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I think more people will get into watches. Don't see watches going even more crazy so I say flat to positive growth.
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Old 18 February 2020, 06:31 AM   #12
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Nostradamus for 2020

Quote:
Originally Posted by Acquisition40 View Post
Think the new Omega Constellation lineup, the Odysseus, and possibly a revamped IWC Engineiur (if they're smart enough to respect the Genta design in 2021) will alleviate the pressure?

A lot of other options out there now... Bulgari Octofinissimo in SS 100m WR, etc. And some of these watches are stunning and available starting 2020!

S


I don’t think any of these watches will change the demand for the watches discussed in the OP. Not saying that some aren’t great, they just aren’t in the same league when it comes to desirability/popularity.

My prediction is more of the same for 2020. I don’t think much will change even with the likelihood of some inventory headed for China being diverted elsewhere. The economy is still booming and I don’t see a significant portion of the newly rich losing their wealth- so I see demand as being flat or increasing further. And we all know demand is far far far outpacing supply for the “hot watches”. So status quo it is (which includes seeing an increased demand for PM pieces , with a rise in secondary prices for some too— for example, take a look at what’s going on with FPJ).


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Old 18 February 2020, 10:25 AM   #13
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I think the prices will adjust down a bit, not at the crazy hyped levels we have seen but continue to do well for Royal Oak and Nautilus. Less so for Rolex SS which will see a market correction as they are produced in much more quantities. Already I am hearing more and more people getting allocated "hard to get" SS Sports Rolex. Basically Patek and AP doesn't really depend on entry model Nautilus or Royal Oaks for their bread and butter income and if need be, can bring the supply down to a trickle or not make at all to support prices if need be as they are primarily there for the hype factor.

A big unknown is the Coronavirus factor. If it spreads widely outside of China, or worse ( touch wood it will never happen ), becomes a global pandemic, then watch demand and prices across the board will plunge, including so call hot models. But if that happens, that's the last thing we will have to worry about.
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Old 18 February 2020, 10:40 AM   #14
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All things come to an.........

Nahhhh, things will stay crazy.

Getting a Timex.
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Old 18 February 2020, 11:56 AM   #15
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If the coronavirus keeps the mainlanders in place then you shall see a drop. If sentiment to go back to Hong Kong (no longer any protests) to spend all their cash then you'll see an increase.

Only people you need to watch out for are the Chinese. They're the ones pushing or dropping the prices. No one else.

Greys are still moving lots of stock. Not to the amount where they fry prices like before, but trades are still going from hand to hand. Believe me :-) They're not suffering or won't be now that they've adjusted to the current situation.
It is keeping the mainlanders in place. Whether this virus continues to spread out of control and just how far is another matter.

I believe you. You must be a grey or a serious grey patron.

In any case as soon as the China contingent is able to perambulate freely, they will. China's juggernaut wealth creation has not reached an end by any means. There may or may not be a recession in the near near term, but should one take place, there will only be new heights to this same story on the other side of that.

Gird your loins, watch friends. That is all.
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Old 18 February 2020, 12:07 PM   #16
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We are seeing more inventory flipped to the grey market and slowing sales from there. What that means is anybody's guess, but I do not see an improvement in AD availability anytime soon.
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Old 18 February 2020, 12:21 PM   #17
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We are seeing more inventory flipped to the grey market and slowing sales from there. What that means is anybody's guess, but I do not see an improvement in AD availability anytime soon.


Economics says that means price softening, with dealers paying less and asking less. Holding inventory is a death sentence for a dealer.

ADs absolutely should be attempting to improve availability, if only by preventing inventory from getting into the secondary market. It’s impossible to stop fully, but it wouldn’t be that hard to curtail if they really wanted to.


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Old 18 February 2020, 06:58 PM   #18
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It is keeping the mainlanders in place. Whether this virus continues to spread out of control and just how far is another matter.

I believe you. You must be a grey or a serious grey patron.

In any case as soon as the China contingent is able to perambulate freely, they will. China's juggernaut wealth creation has not reached an end by any means. There may or may not be a recession in the near near term, but should one take place, there will only be new heights to this same story on the other side of that.

Gird your loins, watch friends. That is all.
The current travel restrictions have put a plug to the current outflow of money. Once the world heals itself again and there's a rush of Chinese needing to get rid of their "Chinese Laundry" we will see the market move again.

I have a finger on the pulse unlike the wild predictions from country-side Texas. Wonder if setting up shop there would produce large sales?

One trend we see is that the watches who fall below their current grey market sales price from MSRP are now becoming available e.g.: Air King. Current grey price is ~46000-47000 HKD pick up. No tax in Hong Kong on display is 50000 HKD. Why would someone pick up an Air King when they can save 2000 from a grey? :-))))))
Doesn't mean supply has changed...It just means demand has dropped. Supply is still lower than <2016. Another fact. Rolex timed this perfectly when they regulated COSC, leaving everyone believing their 2015 number of 1M produced watches is still valid (when the year after they only had produced ~750000, but people still use the bigger number).
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Old 19 February 2020, 01:24 AM   #19
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Hi TRF,

I think grey prices will drop between 10-20% on many SS pieces this year, and none will retain the current price as of today. I think Daytona black dials will drop to $18-19k; white dial to $20-$22k; blue dial skydwellers to $19-21k; 5167s will go sub $30k, and likely hover in the $26-29k mark; 5164s to $45-48k, etc. I wont guess on the Nauts as I think these watches live in a different acquisition bracket and have a status outside of the watches listed above. However, I can see some Nauts coming down, such as those on straps.

Best,
TA
I agree that the hot pieces will show some softening in price in the short term.

Right now is a weird moment because of COVID-19 and the short-term impact in Asia affecting day-to-day commerce. Hodinkee Radio #78 speaks to this, noting that with so many shuttered stores, there is a lot of inventory with nowhere to go. It was suggested that ADs will divert more product to Greys, but this probably doesn't much impact the models you cover above.

Thinking ahead to after the virus has run its course world-wide, the short term choke points will not be an issue. What may be an issue will be if there are longer term economic impacts to national economies or instability owing to world politics (US election year).

Yet, the big companies are more thoughtful than they used to be in terms of supply management.

I wish it was like 2014, where basically no one was buying the high demand pieces and PP lowered prices. -Hard to recreate that situation...
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Old 19 February 2020, 03:25 AM   #20
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I wish it was like 2014, where basically no one was buying the high demand pieces and PP lowered prices. -Hard to recreate that situation...
This will eventually happen. Maybe in five years, maybe ten. The bubble will burst. In the meantime, everyone wants it to be soon so normal service can resume and the speculators can move on. However, if the bubble is created by the ever growing Chinese middle class wanting to reflect their affluence and status by wearing Rolex pieces (after all, most are not shooting for APs and PPs), this bubble wont end for many, many years--if at all. It might became the new "normal." I don't think it will. After all, we're seeing small price corrections in many "hot" SS pieces, and I think they'll drop a little further.

The interesting question will be, if Asian demand is down in Q3 and Q4, PP, AP, and Rolex will be pressed to makes decisions before then to move that stock on.
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Old 19 February 2020, 03:42 AM   #21
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I think either the bubble will burst or it won't.
U blew my mind
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Old 19 February 2020, 04:37 AM   #22
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I think either the bubble will burst or it won't.
I am not sure I agree...
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Old 19 February 2020, 05:59 AM   #23
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How do you see the SS bubble playing out in 2020?
By remaining the same, this is the new status quo.
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Old 19 February 2020, 08:50 AM   #24
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Bubbles won't burst if those who control the market are financially capable of maintaining that control through downturns.
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Old 19 February 2020, 08:59 AM   #25
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I think either the bubble will burst or it won't.
I only agree with half of this.
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Old 19 February 2020, 09:18 AM   #26
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The prices will be same as 2019 and maybe 5-10% higher. There will always be demand on the market, world is big. Clean examples of 5 digit Rolex will be less in 10 years, so i expect the price will go up for them.
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Old Today, 05:58 AM   #27
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Bubbles won't burst if those who control the market are financially capable of maintaining that control through downturns.
Bubble won’t burst if price increase is genuine.
For example look at inflation, how much is the cost of Mc Donald burger set 10 years ago compared to today, almost 50% increase in price.
So if price of 10 years old good steel sport Rolex watches ; or good location property with steady rental income or blue chip tripple A rating shares with positive dividends; if they experienced price increase by 50% to 100% over 10 years; they are not a bubble. It is normal for price to move up ; as inflations drive the price up of everything except your salary (paid review) or (google ads) earning.

But if stock price of a company that making huge losses increase in share price by 100% in 6 months you know it is likely to be a ponzi scheme.
Or newly built property; sold out and price increased by 100% before it was completed, it maybe a bubble.

Or if price of new released Patek Nautilus or Aquanaut watch just come out of retail store that sell for around US$35,000 retail; and the secondary market for that brand new sealed watch selling for $50,000 or more by grey dealers ; then you know very likely there is a ponzi scheme going on.
I would agree Nautilus and Aquanaut looks awesome, so does most roses that looks pretty but with thorns that will likely to hurt you when you try to grab it.
Some one definitely stirs the market price and create bubble waiting for the watch hype chaser to be drowned. It is a good buy if you can buy at retail store. But a fool would pay 150% to 200% premium 3 months ago, and lose $20,000 now. I think if Nautilus or Aquanaut grey market price 20% over retail is acceptable considering grey dealers want make some profit and pay sales tax.

Every price rise that is not normal, is made by greedy ponzi scheme ; will eventually fall back to the ground, some gradually; some with fast and severe fall. And vice versa; if you deliberately push down a price below their fair value , it will eventually re surface. Example A Lange.
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Old Today, 07:27 AM   #28
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If the coronavirus keeps the mainlanders in place then you shall see a drop. If sentiment to go back to Hong Kong (no longer any protests) to spend all their cash then you'll see an increase.

Only people you need to watch out for are the Chinese. They're the ones pushing or dropping the prices. No one else.

Greys are still moving lots of stock. Not to the amount where they fry prices like before, but trades are still going from hand to hand. Believe me :-) They're not suffering or won't be now that they've adjusted to the current situation.
i visited three ADs in vienna today and they were empty. their chinese employees are worried that they will be made redundant if the current situation continues. ADs are suffering, greys as well.
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