When do you think secondary market prices will bottom out?

[BraveBold]

The problem with anyone calling for a sharp drop is that the market is dynamic.

Recession hits, demand is lower, inflation (already much more controlled) turns to deflation. Deflation plus interest rates at 5%+ in US means Fed can cut aggressively. Fed cutting buoys spirits, causes assets to rebound after a temp drop and all starts over.

Time and time again - so long as you aren’t panic selling at bottoms or FOMO buying at tops, these recession calls aren’t changing much absent a systemic shock (2009).

So, I see watches getting easier to get, the real grails still being elusive and at significant premiums. If prices drop faster it will be due to a sharper macro decline. By the time you have time to buy some watches at those lower prices the moves will already be in place to inflate prices back up again. So for those salivating on the sidelines, if this plays out, be quick…

Oh, and several trillion dollars are on the sidelines so don’t expect too big a bargain either ;-)

[4reRlxGuy]

Prices have taken a hit in the pre-owned mkt. I've purchased an AP diver for about 50% of its peak $ which is about 30% off retail, several vintage rolex(s) for around 40% off their highs, and 3 PM sports model below msrp.

[thatswhatshesaid]

Originally Posted by Mystro

No, Rolex as a brand has moved from that position in 2017. It was very apparent that Covid has given Rolex a free look to where they can go and they have capitalized on it moving upmarket. The fact Rolex is using "display only" models confirms they will never have semi full display cases again at their AD. Rolex of 10 years ago is gone regardless what the momentary economy is doing.

As a business owner of 23 years I have learned to never say never.

[PhilAviate]

Originally Posted by BraveBold

The problem with anyone calling for a sharp drop is that the market is dynamic.

Recession hits, demand is lower, inflation (already much more controlled) turns to deflation. Deflation plus interest rates at 5%+ in US means Fed can cut aggressively. Fed cutting buoys spirits, causes assets to rebound after a temp drop and all starts over.

Time and time again - so long as you aren’t panic selling at bottoms or FOMO buying at tops, these recession calls aren’t changing much absent a systemic shock (2009).

So, I see watches getting easier to get, the real grails still being elusive and at significant premiums. If prices drop faster it will be due to a sharper macro decline. By the time you have time to buy some watches at those lower prices the moves will already be in place to inflate prices back up again. So for those salivating on the sidelines, if this plays out, be quick…

Oh, and several trillion dollars are on the sidelines so don’t expect too big a bargain either ;-)

Not really, Rolex were not like the last 3 years even in times of much better economy. We don't need total collapse to return to what it should be.

The last 3 years were a unique situation, and there is absolutely nothing to support that continuing; all trends show the bubble has firmly burst, now it's just a case of who blinks first.

Based on close to 100 years of the watch market it would be more normal for a return to 2015-19 type market, even if the economy is excellent, which it isn't.

A normal economy would suggest a return to normal. Normal is walk in for everything except a few particular models, discounts on many, and grey/used prices below msrp.

Rolex and watch sales of late were driven by demand of people wanting to buy them as they assumed even greater demand would follow. It no longer is.

The hype train has moved on.

I'd also bet that a solid 25-50% of all Rolex demand right now is people who are chasing them, simply because they are still seen as hard to get. But they are becomming more easily available by the day, so the FOMO people will lose all interest when they're actually available.

[LateLearner]

Originally Posted by wm82

NASDAQ closed at all time high yesterday.

We are nowhere near a bottom, of anything.

WoS guidance revision and a 36% drop in share prices yesterday should give you a hint on where things are going to go though...

WoS stock hit $18.85, on February 7, 2022.

Currently, at/near 52-week low, in the $4 range.


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[BraveBold]

Originally Posted by PhilAviate

Not really, Rolex were not like the last 3 years even in times of much better economy. We don't need total collapse to return to what it should be.

The last 3 years were a unique situation, and there is absolutely nothing to support that continuing; all trends show the bubble has firmly burst, now it's just a case of who blinks first.

Based on close to 100 years of the watch market it would be more normal for a return to 2015-19 type market, even if the economy is excellent, which it isn't.

A normal economy would suggest a return to normal. Normal is walk in for everything except a few particular models, discounts on many, and grey/used prices below msrp.

Rolex and watch sales of late were driven by demand of people wanting to buy them as they assumed even greater demand would follow. It no longer is.

The hype train has moved on.

I'd also bet that a solid 25-50% of all Rolex demand right now is people who are chasing them, simply because they are still seen as hard to get. But they are becomming more easily available by the day, so the FOMO people will lose all interest when they're actually available.

Perhaps you didn’t read what I wrote and you’re responding to something else?

I said most watches will be easier to get but the highly demanded ones will remain at significant premiums.

This was the case in 2015-2019 too…

[321Forever]

Many of us can recall when you could go to a place like Singapore in the 1990s and find that every Hour Glass or Cortina store had a wide array of sport Rolex models, with the only exception being a Daytona. FOMO wasn’t a thing.

[EH92]

It will bottom when the SA of my regular AD stop messaging me offers of watches that I do not want... literally every week. Im done with modern rolex

[Cassian739]

You'll know secondary market prices have bottomed 3-6 months after they actually do - no one can pick a bottom. I think the "good old days" of Rolex availability will never return, but, I also don't think we'll return to the March 2022 crazy. Rolex will continue to shift to boutiques, more watches like the Le Mans will appear - PM, open case back, maybe some hand made watches to compete with Patek, etc. In reality, they can't sell +1M watches a year and abandon the SS and TT base models.

[APPRF]

Originally Posted by Travis29

were never going to see under MSRP for most rolex models. Prices are pretty much Ed bottom.

Actually most Rolex models will be under MSRP soon.

[APPRF]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MELRidF0usQ

Agree with this guy. Still a long way down to go.

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by APPRF

Actually most Rolex models will be under MSRP soon.

Exactly! Don’t go by used dealer postings. They’ve been bumping that datejust for months . Whatever their asking price is is not a true reflection


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[amh]

Originally Posted by EH92

It will bottom when the SA of my regular AD stop messaging me offers of watches that I do not want... literally every week. Im done with modern rolex

Ha, I'm seeing the same thing.

[Ceriano]

Originally Posted by Cassian739

You'll know secondary market prices have bottomed 3-6 months after they actually do - no one can pick a bottom. I think the "good old days" of Rolex availability will never return, but, I also don't think we'll return to the March 2022 crazy. Rolex will continue to shift to boutiques, more watches like the Le Mans will appear - PM, open case back, maybe some hand made watches to compete with Patek, etc. In reality, they can't sell +1M watches a year and abandon the SS and TT base models.

Highly doubt it. They have a hard time selling their PM models at msrp with the current production rate. Imagine they make +1M high end pieces, they’d be sitting on pile of inventory. Rolex is geared towards upper middle class. Very few can shell out $100k+ for a watch.

[355F1]

Originally Posted by Ceriano

Rolex is geared towards upper middle class. Very few can shell out $100k+ for a watch.

True. But even upper middle class is not enough to warrant dropping a hundred large on a watch.


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[Cassian739]

Originally Posted by Ceriano

Highly doubt it. They have a hard time selling their PM models at msrp with the current production rate. Imagine they make +1M high end pieces, they’d be sitting on pile of inventory. Rolex is geared towards upper middle class. Very few can shell out $100k+ for a watch.

I agree with you, which is why I said "they can't sell +1M watches a year and abandon the SS and TT base models." I could have worded it better. Basically, they will still need their SS and TT base models to drive volume and revenue, but, Rolex will try to keep the image of exclusivity with ~6 month waits or more for certain pieces (Sub, GMT, Skydweller, Daytona) - which I think is fine to protect the brand. However, I do see them continuing to move up market to try and compete with Patek through new complications, limited edition PM pieces sold in boutiques, maybe hand finished pieces, etc. Patek comfortably sells 60,000+ high-end watches a year, so Rolex can continue to move upmarket.

Who really knows, I could just as easily be wrong, but I'm bored on a Monday night so might as well pontificate about The Crown.

[Ceriano]

Originally Posted by Cassian739

I agree with you, which is why I said "they can't sell +1M watches a year and abandon the SS and TT base models." I could have worded it better. Basically, they will still need their SS and TT base models to drive volume and revenue, but, Rolex will try to keep the image of exclusivity with ~6 month waits or more for certain pieces (Sub, GMT, Skydweller, Daytona) - which I think is fine to protect the brand. However, I do see them continuing to move up market to try and compete with Patek through new complications, limited edition PM pieces sold in boutiques, maybe hand finished pieces, etc. Patek comfortably sells 60,000+ high-end watches a year, so Rolex can continue to move upmarket.

Who really knows, I could just as easily be wrong, but I'm bored on a Monday night so might as well pontificate about The Crown.

My bad I misread it! :) 100% agreed!

[gerry100]

What if everybody who wants a Rolex has one?

I came off the sidelines after about 40 years, low interest rates, FOMO etc. My opinion is that some of Rolex demand has been pulled forward due to external influences.

There are many, many people who could afford a Rolex ( or a collection) but who have zero interest and never will.

[Calatrava r]

One would think the demand would be met at some point soon so there is an equilibrium, but there are still so many buyers looking to build substantial Rolex collections which keeps demand high and concentrated to a solid growing group of enthusiasts.

[gerry100]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

One would think the demand would be met at some point soon so there is an equilibrium, but there are still so many buyers looking to build substantial Rolex collections which keeps demand high and concentrated to a solid growing group of enthusiasts.

How do we know?

[Mystro]

Originally Posted by gerry100

What if everybody who wants a Rolex has one?

I came off the sidelines after about 40 years, low interest rates, FOMO etc. My opinion is that some of Rolex demand has been pulled forward due to external influences.

There are many, many people who could afford a Rolex ( or a collection) but who have zero interest and never will.

The issue unlike 30 years ago, people don’t just want one Rolex and call it a day. It’s a completely different market with a desire to purchase multiple Rolex models. Some never stop buying. Even with the WIS community, if a AD offered up any SS Professional model, they probably will buy it. The general public is a lot less picky and will take anything. The feeding frenzy will never be quenched.
The fascination in the brand is more mainstream than what it ever was. The old adage was Rolex sells every watch they make, which is true. The difference now is how the watches are sold, allocated, and secondary market influencing the final price either in additional jewelry purchases at a AD.
The old days what determined if you could purchase a Rolex was if you could actually afford it. Now that’s laughable as actually having money for the watch is just a minor detail in the road to Rolex ownership.

Nothing stays the same and current pricing might be rock bottom with pricing rebounding up again. In 10 years these current prices will seem low.

[m j b]

The bottom happened last week. YOU MISSED IT!!!

[Nads786]

Originally Posted by Mystro

The issue unlike 30 years ago, people don’t just want one Rolex and call it a day. It’s a completely different market with a desire to purchase multiple Rolex models. Some never stop buying. Even with the WIS community, if a AD offered up any SS Professional model, they probably will buy it. The general public is a lot less picky and will take anything. The feeding frenzy will never be quenched.
The fascination in the brand is more mainstream than what it ever was. The old adage was Rolex sells every watch they make, which is true. The difference now is how the watches are sold, allocated, and secondary market influencing the final price either in additional jewelry purchases at a AD.
The old days what determined if you could purchase a Rolex was if you could actually afford it. Now that’s laughable as actually having money for the watch is just a minor detail in the road to Rolex ownership.

Nothing stays the same and current pricing might be rock bottom with pricing rebounding up again. In 10 years these current prices will seem low.

There is a perception that a Rolex appreciates like an index fund rather than tracking inflation using a limited sample size of 2019-2022.

Even if it's no longer accurate and wasn't accurate historically, all that matters is the perception - which will linger a lot longer than actual facts. This could be a reason why if a SS model is offered, someone will buy it regardless of desire for that model.

[fly4food84]

I don't think we'll see too much downward pressure... The one going up is the Pepsi because of some hype/rumors.

[Boaters]

Originally Posted by Mystro

The issue unlike 30 years ago, people don’t just want one Rolex and call it a day. It’s a completely different market with a desire to purchase multiple Rolex models. Some never stop buying. Even with the WIS community, if a AD offered up any SS Professional model, they probably will buy it. The general public is a lot less picky and will take anything. The feeding frenzy will never be quenched.
The fascination in the brand is more mainstream than what it ever was. The old adage was Rolex sells every watch they make, which is true. The difference now is how the watches are sold, allocated, and secondary market influencing the final price either in additional jewelry purchases at a AD.
The old days what determined if you could purchase a Rolex was if you could actually afford it. Now that’s laughable as actually having money for the watch is just a minor detail in the road to Rolex ownership.

Nothing stays the same and current pricing might be rock bottom with pricing rebounding up again. In 10 years these current prices will seem low.

Very Well Said Mystro ..

[JonnyOld Boy]

A lot of UK grey dealers have shed stock of Rolex in 2023 because they were becoming dead inventory and they had "bills to pay". A couple I spoke to shed at 15% loss to other dealers to free up buying power for other brands. Its seems in the UK, secondary prices are edging down because of that and other factors. That said, still ridiculous prices for some niche pieces and some dealers are happy to keep an OP for 9 months to eventually sell it at 300% of RRP.

[gerry100]

Actual interest rates add to the cost of inventory

[superpop]

Rolex is a jewelry manufacturer, jewelry is subject to the whims of pop culture and fashion trends. With some shrewd marketing, they have spun up the hype train and for a while it seemed unstoppable. In the end, what goes up, always comes down in the world of fashion and pop culture. I remember when Breitling and then Panerai where in the same enviable position for a short period of time. Not saying Rolex will have the same result but the way they have managed their channel, has really turned a lot of their true customer base off. The other issue that is not a good look is the wrong kind of attention on the brand. Rolex is now associated with potentially being mugged as the criminal element is now savvy enough to understand they can go to an affluent area and find someone with 10K strapped to their wrist and take it from them. Sometimes with violent results. These two issues could be what ultimately turns people off from the brand.

[Rollieo]

Originally Posted by superpop

Rolex is a jewelry manufacturer, jewelry is subject to the whims of pop culture and fashion trends. With some shrewd marketing, they have spun up the hype train and for a while it seemed unstoppable. In the end, what goes up, always comes down in the world of fashion and pop culture. I remember when Breitling and then Panerai where in the same enviable position for a short period of time. Not saying Rolex will have the same result but the way they have managed their channel, has really turned a lot of their true customer base off. The other issue that is not a good look is the wrong kind of attention on the brand. Rolex is now associated with potentially being mugged as the criminal element is now savvy enough to understand they can go to an affluent area and find someone with 10K strapped to their wrist and take it from them. Sometimes with violent results. These two issues could be what ultimately turns people off from the brand.

This is completely wrong. I think you’re talking about AP, not Rolex.

[Kevin of Larchmont]

I think that Rolex, with the added value of their CPO program, will keep prices elevated. They already have the infrastructure of their dealer network and can provide a personal shopping experience without the delayed gratification and inherent tension of shipping from third party sellers. And because each of their pre-owned watches will have baked in provenance and a fresh inspection, service and guarantee of authenticity with CPO they can and will charge a premium for them, keeping prices in general across all platforms elevated. Prices have settled down from the days of free money but they won’t crash.