Rolex Prices - New & Pre-Owned - What Does the Future Hold???

[SS2020]

There’s a lot of discussion on the forums as it relates to what’s happening on the secondary market (prices falling, etc.) but there’s not much discussion on what’s happening at AD’s and what the near and long term future will hold…

For instance, I bought a new 40mm Sub Date from an AD in March 2020 for $8,950 plus tax.

I sold it later in the year for $10,500 after deciding I wanted a Datejust 41 instead. The market then went on fire and the same watch was selling for $14-$15k.

Fast forward to today and I just bought a new 41mm Sub Date from an AD for $10,250 + tax. 13% increase in roughly 3 years.

Some questions…

1) How far will the secondary market go? Will a used Sub end up selling for less than brand new? What about new Rolexes from the gray market vs. AD?

2) Will deflation cause AD’s to offer discounts off MSRP like they did 10 years ago? For example, what happens to the watch market if we go into a recession? Even a mild one…?

3) What impact will the certified pre owned program at Rolex cause on the market?

Would love to hear your thoughts!!!

[serenerabbit]

Are you a Soap Opera writer?

My thoughts are enjoy the watch and stop obsessing over the market. If you can't be satisfied by the watches alone, then you're wasting your time.

[SS2020]

Originally Posted by serenerabbit

Are you a Soap Opera writer?

My thoughts are enjoy the watch and stop obsessing over the market. If you can't be satisfied by the watches alone, then you're wasting your time.

LOL! This was just food for thought. I’m building out a collection, but it’s interesting to see the market play out in real time. I’m in the real estate business, this is what I live for! 😂

[serenerabbit]

Originally Posted by SS2020

LOL! This was just food for thought. I’m building out a collection, but it’s interesting to see the market play out in real time. I’m in the real estate business, this is what I live for! 😂

Seeing the market play out and incessantly trying to predict it in the short term aren't the same.

I understand where you're coming from but I think you're robbing yourself of the real pleasure of watches if the market aspect takes precedence.

[MinMay]

Buy it because you want a Rolex! Too many people complain about the price and not being able to buy a Rolex at retail, but when the prices fall they run away or lose interest due to falling prices

[sinkholeninja]

Social media, especially Instagram and then TikTok changed the game forever. The amount of hype generated on those platforms has directly contributed, and continues to contribute to the current situation where stock is generally unavailable, watches are being treated as investments to be flipped etc. Unfortunately, I don't see the situation going back to pre-social media hype days.

[geoffreyis]

Dude. You are talking about a few k swings in either direction on a 10k piece of jewelry. Stop worrying about it and enjoy the watch. If you are worried about values you might consider talking to your investment advisor about other investment options in the stock market.

[Easy E]

At some point there will be an economic event that causes the value of expensive watches to plummet. When? IDK, but it has happened before and will happen again. Just enjoy your watch.

[Mystro]

All of those topics were spoken about about at nauseam in separate threads.

[beshannon]

Welcome to the forum

[1William]

I look at the market on a decades long time frame. Some of the watches that I own that were purchase 5-10 years ago have seen significant increases in value. Some of the watches that were purchased in the last few years have ridden the wave and adjusted up and then back down. If you buy what you want and will wear and enjoy, time will take care of the values. My life experience tells me that almost nothing gets cheaper in the luxury goods market.

[fsprow]

As has been said, there is a separate part of the forum to address trends and speculations in watch prices. Several people there “know” exactly what will happen in the future. My belief is that short term trends aside - over time, the value of in demand, luxury goods will increase. Actually, when I buy a watch, I have no expectation that it will increase in value, but rather that it’s likely but not certain that it will retain much of its value.

[inadeje]

Not sure how old you are OP, but we've witnessed several heating/cooling cycles of the used watch market over my lifetime of collecting (3-4 decades). Admittedly, the most recent was the craziest I’ve seen. However, onlookers can become spoilt when unsustainable 4x, 5x, 6x multiples of retail price are paid for watches. It should be obvious that it couldn’t possibly continue. The fact some Rolex watches are still selling healthily over retail is testament to the brand and overall solidness of the consumer following.

[1665fan]

Originally Posted by mystro

all of those topics were spoken about about at nauseam in separate threads.

+1

[amh]

Let me get back to you ...